Rarity, pseudodiagnosticity and Bayesian reasoning

Three experiments investigated the effect of rarity on people's selection and interpretation of data in a variant of the pseudodiagnosticity task. For familiar (Experiment 1) but not for arbitrary (Experiment 3) materials, participants were more likely to select evidence so as to complete a likelihood ratio when the initial evidence they received was a single likelihood concerning a rare feature. This rarity effect with familiar materials was replicated in Experiment 2 where it was shown that participants were relatively insensitive to explicit manipulations of the likely diagnosticity of rare evidence. In contrast to the effects for data selection, there was an effect of rarity on confidence ratings after receipt of a single likelihood for arbitrary but not for familiar materials. It is suggested that selecting diagnostic evidence necessitates explicit consideration of the alternative hypothesis and that consideration of the possible consequences of the evidence for the alternative weakens the rarity effect in confidence ratings. Paradoxically, although rarity effects in evidence selection and confidence ratings are in the spirit of Bayesian reasoning, the effect on confidence ratings appears to rely on participants thinking less about the alternative hypothesis.

The effect of statistics anxiety on students’ predicted and actual test scores

This study investigated the effect of statistics anxiety and attitudes on first year psychology students’ predicted and actual statistics class test scores. A total of 52 students completed the Statistics Anxiety Rating Scale and estimated their class test scores one week before their test at the end of first year. Regression models were conducted with the six attitude and anxiety subscales as predictors and the predicted and actual test scores as criterion variables. The results showed that computation self concept and fear of asking for help accounted for 37% of the variance in predicted test scores. However, when actual test scores were analysed the significant predictors were worth of statistics and interpretation anxiety, which accounted for 20% of the variance. These results suggested that while statistics anxiety does influence students’ perceptions of their competence it appears to have less effect on their actual performance. Results also suggested that students were unaware of their own statistical competence. Remedial action is required to address the level of statistics anxiety experienced by first year undergraduate psychology students, as it appears to result in unrealistic assessments of their ability and has detrimental effects on their statistics self-efficacy.

Entrepreneurial and Business Growth and the Quest for a “Comprehensive Theory”: Tilting at Windmills?

Even though there has been sustained interest in growth for almost 50 years, relatively little is known about this phenomenon and much confusion and misunderstanding surrounds it. Based on a literature review and the articles in this special issue we make three recommendations that we believe will allow theory to advance and be applicable in practice. First, that discourse between key stakeholders is encouraged in order to achieve greater understanding. Second, that focus is placed on " growth as a process," rather than as a " change in amount." Third, that knowledge production requires inclusivity and pluralism in research perspectives and approaches. © 2010 Baylor University.

Beckett and Performance

The recent interest in genealogical criticism in Beckett Studies, fuelled by the reading notes that Beckett compiled in the 1920’s and 1930’s, has led to a particular focus on Beckett’s formative years, and on the intersections between his work, especially the novels and early criticism, and his intellectual reading. While this has produced much valuable and fascinating matrial, perhaps it is time to return to the works themselves, and especially, to the theatre. Having just published a book on Performing Embodiment in Samuel Beckett’s Drama (London, Routledge, 2010), I would like to develop further the area of presence and performance in Beckett’s theatre. Performance studies and phenomenology have offered new ways of approaching the ontology of performance in Beckett’s theatre, and I intend to analyze this, with particular reference to specific productions of Beckett’s plays. Firstly, I want to look at some of Beckett’s own comments about particular performances / productions (for example in the Barbara Bray correspondence, Trinity College Dublin), and, secondly, to analyze from the perspective / experience of an audience member a number of performances by (mainly Anglophone) ‘Beckett actors’, including Billie Whitelaw and David Warrilow. Drawing on recent discussions of presence and performance (Jane Goodall, Cormac Power), I will offer some reflections on the complexity of presence (of persona and performer, of body and voice) and its haunting power in performances of Beckett’s drama.

Confined Site Construction: Issues Regarding Implementation of Health and Safety

The objective of this paper is to identify the various managerial constraints, difficulties and issues encountered and resulting strategies adopted, to aid in the management of the various and often complex health and safety concerns, which occur within a confined construction site. This is achieved through classifying the various managerial burdens encountered with the numerous strategies adopted, to ensure the successful management of such confined environments within the realm of health and safety. Through an extensive literature review and detailed interviews, a comprehensive insight into the health and safety concerns within a confined construction site environment is portrayed. The leading managerial strategies to the management of health and safety on confined construction sites may be listed as follows; (1) Traffic Management Plan, (2) Effective Resource Management Plan, (3) Temporary Facilities Management Plan, (4) Safe System of Work Plan, (5) Site Safety Plan, (6) Design Site Layout, (7) Space Management Plan, (8) Effective Program Management, and (9) Space Scheduling. Based on the research, it can be concluded, that through effective management of these issues identified coupled with implementing the various strategies highlighted; successful management of health and safety within a confined construction site environment is attainable.

Data-driven optimal filtering for phase and frequency of noisy oscillations: Application to vortex flow metering

A method for measuring the phase of oscillations from noisy time series is proposed. To obtain the phase, the signal is filtered in such a way that the filter output has minimal relative variation in the amplitude over all filters with complex-valued impulse response. The argument of the filter output yields the phase. Implementation of the algorithm and interpretation of the result are discussed. We argue that the phase obtained by the proposed method has a low susceptibility to measurement noise and a low rate of artificial phase slips. The method is applied for the detection and classification of mode locking in vortex flow meters. A measure for the strength of mode locking is proposed.

Learning Not to Curse: Swearing, Testimony, and Truth in Olaudah Equiano’s The Interesting Narrative

This article addresses swearing and testimony in Olaudah Equiano’s The Interesting Narrative (1789) by reading the work in the context of a broader contemporary discourse concerning profane swearing and cursing. Acts of profane enunciation inform a number of key episodes in Equiano’s life, and bear particular significance for his spiritual development and abolitionist witnessing. Within the Narrative, swearing is cast as a failure of piety, civility, and humanity, and shown to be actively avenged by a retributive deity. In Britain, profane swearing was also thought to undermine the validity of legal testimony; while, in the British West Indies, slaves were denied recourse to such testimony against their oppressors. By disavowing profane swearing and cursing, the essay argues, Equiano sought to assert both the validity of his oath and the truth of his testimony against the iniquities of the British slave trade.

Residential consumption of gas and electricity in the U.S.: The role of prices and income

We study the residential demand for electricity and gas, working with nationwide household-level data that cover recent years, namely 1997-2007. Our dataset is a mixed panel/multi-year cross-sections of dwellings/households in the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the United States as of 2008. We estimate static and dynamic models of electricity and gas demand. We find strong household response to energy prices, both in the short and long term. From the static models, we get estimates of the own price elasticity of electricity demand in the -0.860 to -0.667 range, while the own price elasticity of gas demand is -0.693 to -0.566. These results are robust to a variety of checks. Contrary to earlier literature (Metcalf and Hassett, 1999; Reiss and White, 2005), we find no evidence of significantly different elasticities across households with electric and gas heat. The price elasticity of electricity demand declines with income, but the magnitude of this effect is small. These results are in sharp contrast to much of the literature on residential energy consumption in the United States, and with the figures used in current government agency practice. Our results suggest that there might be greater potential for policies which affect energy price than may have been previously appreciated. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determination of higher heating value of petro-diesels using mid-infrared spectroscopy and chemometry

Higher heating value (HHV) is probably the most important property of the fuels. Bomb calorimeter and derived empirical formulae are often used for accurate determination of HHV of fuels. A useful empirical equation was derived to estimate HHV of petro-diesels from their C and H contents: HHV (in MJ/kg) = 0.3482(C) + 1.1887(H), r (2) = 0.9956. The derived correlation was validated against the most common formulae in the literature, Boie and Channiwala-Parikh correlations. Accordingly, accurate determination of C and H contents is essential for estimation of HHV and avoids using a bomb calorimeter. However, accurate estimation of C and H contents requires using expensive and laborious gas chromatographic techniques. In this work, chemometry offered a simple method for HHV determination of petro-diesels without using bomb calorimeter or even gas chromatography. PLS-1 calibration was used instead of gas chromatography to find C and H contents from the non-selective mid-infrared (MIR) spectra of petro-diesels, HHV was then estimated from the earlier empirical equation. The proposed method predicts HHV of petro-diesels with high accuracy and precision, with modest analysis costs. The present method may be extended to other fuels.

Critical factors affecting management of site operatives and personal in confined construction site

The aim of this paper is to identify and classify the numerous managerial issues encountered in the management of personnel in confined site construction. For the purpose of this research, a confined construction site is defined as a site where permanent works fit the site footprint, extending to levels above and/or below ground level, leaving spatial restrictions for other operations (e.g. plant and material movements, materials storage and temporary accommodation etc.) and require effective resource co-ordination beyond normal on-site management input. A literature review and analysis, case studies incorporating interviews and focus groups along with a questionnaire survey were used in order to gain a comprehensive insight into the issues in the management of personnel in a confined construction site environment. The following are the top five leading issues highlighted in the management of personnel in confined site construction; (1) Accidents due to an untidy site, (2) One contractor holding up another because of the lack of space, (3) A risk to personnel because of vehicular traffic on-site, (4) Difficult to facilitate several contractors at one work location, and (5) Numerous personnel working within the one space. In today’s modern environment, spatial restrictions are quickly becoming the norm in the industry. Therefore, the management of personnel on-site becomes progressively more difficult with the decrease in available space on-site. Where such environments exist, acknowledging the numerous issues highlighted above, aids site management in the supervision and co-ordination of personnel on-site, thus reducing accidents, increasing productivity and increase profit margins, in spatially restricted environments. As on-site management professionals successfully identify, acknowledge and counteract the numerous issues illustrated, the successful management of personnel on a confined construction site is achievable. By identifying the numerous issues, on-site management can proactively mitigate such issues through adopting counteractive measures and through successful identification of the traits identified.

Cause-specific mortality adjudication in the UPLIFT® COPD trial:findings and recommendations

Mortality is an important endpoint in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) trials, although accurately determining cause of death is difficult. In the Understanding the Potential Long-term Impacts on Function with Tiotropium (UPLIFT®) trial, a mortality adjudication committee (MAC) provided systematic, independent and blinded assessment of cause-specific mortality of all 981 reported deaths. Here we describe this process of mortality adjudication and methodological revisions introduced to help standardise the adjudication of two areas recognised to pose particular difficulty; firstly, the classification of fatal COPD exacerbations that occur in the setting of pneumonia and secondly, the categorisation of sudden death. In addition MAC determined cause of death was compared with that reported by site investigators (SIs). MAC-assigned causes of death were: respiratory, 35%; cancer, 25%; cardiovascular, 11%; sudden cardiac death, 4.4%; sudden death, 3.4%; other, 8.8%; unknown, 12.4%. Cancer/cardiac deaths were more common in Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stage II, respiratory deaths in stages III and IV. Agreement between MAC and SI regarding cause of death was complete (50.2%), incomplete (18.5%) or none (31.3%). The SI classified deaths as cardiac three-fold more frequently than MAC (incidence rate [IR]/100 patient-years 0.797 vs. 0.257), although IR ratios for cardiac deaths for tiotropium vs. control were similar between SI and MAC. Discrepancies between MAC- and SI-adjudicated causes of death are common, especially increased reporting of cardiac deaths by the SI. Future multicentre COPD trials should plan appropriate infrastructure before study initiation to ensure collection and interpretation of fatal events data.

A Cat's Lick: Democratisation and Minority Communities in the Post-Soviet Baltic

The research on Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania has pointed out some controversial social and political developments since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Crucially, there is a discrepancy between the governments' commitment to creating democratic political regimes, to ensuring harmonious social relations and to accommodating the ethno-cultural diversity of the resident communities. In reflecting on the legacies of the Soviet past, the book addresses the role non-titular populations have played in the process of democratisation and the relation between the states, societies and minorities in the post-Soviet Baltic states. The argument proceeds along three lines. Firstly, the book examines the institutional dimension of democratisation in the region, thereby addressing the processes of state- and nation-building as reflected in various policy-developments. Secondly, it compares the impact of ethno-cultural diversity on the development of the respective Baltic nation-states. The discussion makes clear that the framework of Baltic political communities was designed to suit the interests of the titular groups and thus resulted in the marginalisation of the minority communities. Thirdly, the book assesses the participation of minority communities in the development, criticism and improvement of state institutions and policies since independence. The analysis points out that, two decades after independence, the post-Soviet Baltic states and societies are seen by many members of the majority groups as primarily serving the interests of their ethnic community. In this situation, the members of the non-titular communities need to adapt to the majorities' perceptions in order to benefit from the achievements of democratisation.

Zeros and Os:Silence, Absence and Erasure in an Intercultural O-thello

The performative function of sound and music has received little attention in performance theory and criticism and certainly much less so in studies of intercultural theatre. Such an absence is noteworthy particularly since interculturalism is an appropriative Western theatrical form that absorbs Eastern sources to re-create the targeted Western mise en scene. Consequently, a careful consideration of the employment of sound and music are imperative for sound and music form the vertebrae of Asian traditional performance practices. In acoustemological and ethnomusicological studies, sound and music demarcate cultural boundaries and locate cultures by an auditory (dis)recognition. In the light of this need for a more considered understanding of the performative function of sound and music in intercultural performance, this paper seeks to examine the soundscapes of an intercultural production of Shakespeare’s Othello – Desdemona. Directed by Singaporean Ong Keng Sen, Desdemona was a re-scripting of Shakespeare’s text and a self-conscious performance an identity politics. Staged with a multi-ethnic, multi-national cast, Desdemona employed various Asian performance traditions such as Sanskrit Kutiyattam, Myanmarese puppetry, and Korean p’ansori to create the intercultural spectacle. The spectacle was not only a visual aesthetic but an aural one as well. By examining the soundscapes of fractured silences and eruptive cultural sounds the paper hopes to establish the ways in which Desdemona performs absences and erasures of ‘Asia’ in a simultaneous act of performing an Asian Shakespeare.