The Supremacy of the Sequence: Key Elements and Dimensions in the Process of Change

How single organizations manage the process of change and why only some of them are able to actually reach radical change are central questions in today’s theoretical debate. The role played by the process of change and its dimensions (namely, pace, sequence and linearity), however, has been poorly investigated. Drawing on archetype theory, this paper explores: (i) whether a specific pace of radical change exists; (ii) whether different outcomes of change are characterized by different sequences of change in key-structures and systems (iii) how the three dimensions of the process of change possibly interact. As an example of organizational change the study takes into consideration processes of accounting change in three departments of two Canadian and two Italian municipalities. The results suggest the supremacy of the sequence of implemented changes over the other two dimensions of the process in order to achieve a radical outcome of change.

Holocene climate change, vegetation history and human impact in the Central Mediterranean: evidence from the Maltese Islands

Holocene climates and human impact in the Mediterranean basin have received much attention, but the Maltese Islands in the Central Mediterranean, although a pivotal area, have been little researched. Here, sedimentary and palynological data are presented for three cores from the Holocene coastal and shallowmarine
deposits of the Maltese Islands. These show deforestation from Pinus-Cupressaceae woodland in the early Neolithic, and then a long, but relatively stable history of agriculturally degraded environments to the present day. The major climate events which have affected the Italian and Balkan peninsulas to the
north, and Tunisia to the south, are not reflected in the pollen diagrams from the Maltese Islands because of the strong anthropogenic imprint on the Maltese vegetation from early in the Neolithic. Previous suggestions of environmentally-driven agricultural collapse at the end of the Neolithic appear, however,
to be substantiated and may be linked to regional aridification around 4300 cal. BP. Depopulation in early Medieval times is not supported by the current palynological evidence.

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened forest-restricted birds in Madagascar

The greatest common threat to birds in Madagascar has historically been from anthropogenic deforestation. During recent decades, global climate change is now also regarded as a significant threat to biodiversity. This study uses Maximum Entropy species distribution modeling to explore how potential climate change could affect the distribution of 17 threatened forest endemic bird species, using a range of climate variables from the Hadley Center's HadCM3 climate change model, for IPCC scenario B2a, for 2050. We explore the importance of forest cover as a modeling variable and we test the use of pseudo-presences drawn from extent of occurrence distributions. Inclusion of the forest cover variable improves the models and models derived from real-presence data with forest layer are better predictors than those from pseudo-presence data. Using real-presence data, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on the distribution of nine species. We could not predict the impact of climate change on eight species because of low numbers of occurrences. All nine species were predicted to experience reductions in their total range areas, and their maximum modeled probabilities of occurrence. In general, species range and altitudinal contractions follow the reductive trend of the Maximum presence probability. Only two species (Tyto soumagnei and Newtonia fanovanae) are expected to expand their altitude range. These results indicate that future availability of suitable habitat at different elevations is likely to be critical for species persistence through climate change. Five species (Eutriorchis astur, Neodrepanis hypoxantha, Mesitornis unicolor, Euryceros prevostii, and Oriola bernieri) are probably the most vulnerable to climate change. Four of them (E. astur, M. unicolor, E. prevostii, and O. bernieri) were found vulnerable to the forest fragmentation during previous research. Combination of these two threats in the future could negatively affect these species in a drastic way. Climate change is expected to act differently on each species and it is important to incorporate complex ecological variables into species distribution models.

Oscillatory Behavior of Supersonic Impinging Jet Flows

Oscillatory flows of a choked underexpanded supersonic impinging jet issuing from a convergent nozzle have been computed using the axisymmetric unsteady Navier–Stokes system. This paper focuses on the oscillatory flow features associated with the variation of the nozzle-to-plate distance and nozzle pressure ratio. Frequencies of the surface pressure oscillation and flow structural changes from computational results have been analyzed. Staging behaviour of the oscillation frequency has been observed for both cases of nozzle-to-plate distance variation and pressure ratio variation. However, the staging behavior for each case exhibits different features. These two distinct staging behaviors of the oscillation frequency are found to correlate well if the frequency and the distance are normalized by the length of the shock cell. It is further found that the staging behaviour is strongly correlated with the change of the pressure wave pattern in the jet shear layer, but not with the shock cell structure.

Cortisol levels in relation to maternal interaction and child internalizing behavior in preterm and full-term children at 18 months corrected age

Cortisol levels were compared in children born preterm at extremely low gestational age (ELGA; 24-28 weeks), very low gestational age (VGLA; 29-32 weeks), and full-term in response to cognitive assessment at 18 months corrected age (CA). Further, we investigated the relationship between maternal interactive behaviors and child internalizing behaviors (rated by the mother) in relation to child cortisol levels. EGLA children had higher "pretest" cortisol levels and a different pattern of cortisol response to cognitive assessment compared to VGLA and full-terms. Higher cortisol levels in ELGA, but not full-term, children were associated with less optimal mother interactive behavior. Moreover, the pattern of cortisol change was related to internalizing behaviors among ELGA, and to a lesser degree VLGA children. In conclusion, our findings suggest altered programming of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis in preterm children, as well as their greater sensitivity to environmental context such as maternal interactive behavior.

Encouraging lifestyle behaviour change in mild cognitive impairment patients:development of appropriate educational material

Objectives: A healthy lifestyle may help maintain cognitive function and reduce the risk of developing dementia. This study employed a focus group approach in order to gain insight into opinions of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) patients, caregivers (CG) and health professionals (HP) regarding lifestyle and its relationship with cognition. The qualitative data were used to design, develop and pilot test educational material (EM) to help encourage lifestyle behaviour change. Method: Data gathering phase: structured interviews were conducted with HP (n = 10), and focus groups with MCI patients (n = 24) and CG (n = 12). EM was developed and pilot tested with a new group of MCI patients (n = 21) and CG (n = 6). Results: HP alluded to the lack of clinical trial evidence for a lifestyle and MCI risk link. Although they felt that lifestyle modifications should be recommended to MCI patients, they appeared hesitant in communicating this information and discussions were often patient-driven. MCI patients lacked awareness of the lifestyle cognition link. Participants preferred EM to be concise, eye-catching and in written format, with personal delivery of information favoured. Most pilot testers approved of the EM but were heterogeneous in terms of lifestyle, willingness to change and support needed to change. Conclusion: MCI patients need to be made more aware of the importance of lifestyle for cognition. EM such as those developed here, which are specifically tailored for this population would be valuable for HP who, currently, appear reticent in initiating lifestyle-related discussions. Following further evaluation, the EM could be used in health promotion activities targeting MCI patients.

Patterns of Holocene relative sea level change in the North of Britain and Ireland

Temporal and spatial patterns of relative sea level (RSL) change in the North of Britain and Ireland during the Holocene are examined. Four episodes, each defined by marked changes in the RSL trend, are identified. Each episode is marked by a rise to a culminating shoreline followed by a fall. Episode HRSL-1 dates from the Younger Dryas to early in the Holocene; HRSL-2 to HRSL-4 occurred later in the Holocene. There is extensive evidence for each episode, and on this basis the spatial distribution of the altitude data for three culminating shorelines and a shoreline formed at the time of the Holocene Storegga Slide tsunami (ca 8110 ± 100 cal. BP) is analysed. Ordinary Kriging is used to determine the general pattern, following which Gaussian Trend Surface Analysis is employed. Recognising that empirical measurements of RSL change can be unevenly distributed spatially, a new approach is introduced which enables the developing pattern to be identified. The patterns for the most widely occurring shorelines were analysed and found to be similar and common centre and axis models were developed for all shorelines. The analyses described provide models of the spatial pattern of Holocene RSL change in the area between ca 8100 cal. BP and ca 1000 cal. BP based on 2262 high resolution shoreline altitude measurements. These models fit the data closely, no shoreline altitude measurement lying more than −1.70 m or +1.82 m from the predicted value. The models disclose a similar pattern to a recently published Glacial Isostatic Adjustment model for present RSL change across the area, indicating that the overall spatial pattern of RSL change may not have varied greatly during the last ca 8000 years.

Late Pleistocene climate change and landscape dynamics in the Eastern Alps: the inner-alpine Unterangerberg record (Austria)

Drill cores from the inner-alpine valley terrace of Unterangerberg, located in the Eastern Alps of Austria, offer first insights into a Pleistocene sedimentary record that was not accessible so far. The succession comprises diamict, gravel, sand, lignite and thick, fine grained sediments. Additionally, cataclastic deposits originating from two paleo-landslide events are present. Multi-proxy analyses including sedimentological and palynological investigations as well as radiocarbon and luminescence data record the onset of the last glacial period (Wurmian) at Unterangerberg at similar to 120-110 ka. This first time period, correlated to the MIS 5d, was characterised by strong fluvial aggradation under cold climatic conditions, with only sparse vegetation cover. Furthermore, two large and quasi-synchronous landslide events occurred during this time interval. No record of the first Early Wiirmian interstadial (MIS 5c) is preserved. During the second Early Wiirmian interstadial (MIS 5a), the local vegetation was characterised by a boreal forest dominated by Picea, with few thermophilous elements. The subsequent collapse of the vegetation is recorded by sediments dated to similar to 70-60 ka (i.e. MIS 4), with very low pollen concentrations and the potential presence of permafrost. Climatic conditions improved again between similar to 55 and 45 ka (MIS 3) and cold-adapted trees re-appeared during interstadials, forming an open forest vegetation. MIS 3 stadials were shorter and less severe than the MIS 4 at Unterangerberg, and vegetation during these cold phases was mainly composed of shrubs, herbs and grasses, similar to what is known from today's alpine timberline. The Unterangerberg record ended at similar to 45 ka and/or was truncated by ice during the Last Glacial Maximum. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change and decadal to centennial-scale periodicities recorded in a late Holocene NE Pacific marine record: Examining the role of solar forcing

We present a decadal-scale late Holocene climate record based on diatoms, biogenic silica, and grain size from a 12-m sediment core (VEC02A04) obtained from Frederick Sound in the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex of British Columbia, Canada. Sediments are characterized by graded, massive, and laminated intervals. Laminated intervals are most common between c. 2948–2708 cal. yr BP and c. 1992–1727 cal. yr BP. Increased preservation of laminated sediments and diatom assemblage changes at this time suggest that cli- mate became moderately drier and cooler relative to the preceding and succeeding intervals. Spectral and wavelet analyses are used to test for statistically significant periodicities in time series of proxies of primary production (total diatom abundance, biogenic silica) and hydrology (grain size) preserved in the Frederick Sound record. Periodicities of c. 42–53, 60–70, 82–89, 241–243, and 380 yrs are present. Results are com- pared to reconstructed sunspot number data of Solanki et al. (2004) using cross wavelet transform to evalu- ate the role of solar forcing on NE Pacific climate. Significant common power of periodicities between c. 42– 60, 70–89, 241–243, and of 380 yrs occur, suggesting that celestial forcing impacted late Holocene climate at Frederick Sound. Replication of the c. 241–243 yr periodicity in sunspot time series is most pronounced be- tween c. 2900 cal. yr BP and c. 2000 cal. yr BP, broadly correlative to the timing of maximum preservation of laminated sedimentary successions and diatom assemblage changes. High solar activity at the Suess/de Vries band may have been manifested as a prolonged westward shift and/or weakening of the Aleutian Low in the mid-late Holocene, which would have diverted fewer North Pacific storms and resulted in the relatively dry conditions reconstructed for the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex.

Associations between repetitive questioning, resistance to change, temper outbursts and anxiety in Prader-Willi and Fragile-X syndromes

The behavioural phenotypes of Prader-Willi (PWS) and Fragile-X (FraX) syndromes both comprise repetitive behaviours with differences between the profiles. In this study we investigated the context and antecedents to the repetitive behaviours and the association with other behavioural phenotypic characteristics in order to generate testable hypotheses regarding the cause of the behaviours.

The parents or carers of 46 children with PWS (mean age 14.1 years; 20 girls), and 33 boys with FraX (mean age 13.11 years) were interviewed about their children's repetitive behaviour in a semi-structured format.

Children showed negative emotional behaviour (PWS: 87.0%; FraX: 79.4%) and repetitive questions (PWS: 78.3%; FraX: 73.5%) following changes in routine or expectations. Significantly more temper outbursts were reported to follow changes in children with PWS (89.1%) compared with boys with FraX (41.2%) (chi(2) = 20.93; P <0.001). Anxiety that was frequently associated with repetitive and self-injurious behaviours in boys with FraX, followed changes in significantly more boys with FraX (76.5%) compared with children with PWS (6.5%) (chi(2) = 43.19, P <0.001).

On the basis of these reports and existing literature, we hypothesise that decreases in predictability are aversive to children with PWS and FraX. We also hypothesise that these children have a propensity to show a syndrome-related pattern of behaviour (temper outbursts in PWS and displays of anxiety in FraX) when an event in the environment has this aversive property. We hypothesise that questions may be reinforcing to children in their own right by increasing the predictability of the environment. We outline how a specific cognitive deficit in the endophenotypes associated with both PWS and FraX could be investigated as a potential explanation for the hypothesised aversive properties of decreased predictability.

Analysis of deformation behavior and workability of advanced 9Cr-Nb-V ferritic heat resistant steels

Hot compression tests were carried out on 9Cr–Nb–V heat resistant steels in the temperature range of 600–1200 °C and the strain rate range of 10−2–100 s−1 to study their deformation characteristics. The full recrystallization temperature and the carbon-free bainite phase transformation temperature were determined by the slope-change points in the curve of mean flow stress versus the inverse of temperature. The parameters of the constitutive equation for the experimental steels were calculated, including the stress exponent and the activation energy. The lower carbon content in steel would increase the fraction of precipitates by increasing the volume of dynamic strain-induced (DSIT) ferrite during deformation. The ln(εc) versus ln(Z) and the ln(σc) versus ln(Z) plots for both steels have similar trends. The efficiency of power dissipation maps with instability maps merged together show excellent workability from the strain of 0.05 to 0.6. The microstructure of the experimental steels was fully recrystallized upon deformation at low Z value owing to the dynamic recrystallization (DRX), and exhibited a necklace structure under the condition of 1050 °C/0.1 s−1 due to the suppression of the secondary flow of DRX. However, there were barely any DRX grains but elongated pancake grains under the condition of 1000 °C/1 s−1 because of the suppression of the metadynamic recrystallization (MDRX).

Increased Exposure to Rigid Routines can Lead to Increased Challenging Behavior Following Changes to Those Routines

Several neurodevelopmental disorders are associated with preference for routine and challenging behavior following changes to routines. We examine individuals with Prader–Willi syndrome, who show elevated levels of this behavior, to better understand how previous experience of a routine can affect challenging behavior elicited by disruption to that routine. Play based challenges exposed 16 participants to routines, which were either adhered to or changed. Temper outburst behaviors, heart rate and movement were measured. As participants were exposed to routines for longer before a change (between 10 and 80 min; within participants), more temper outburst behaviors were elicited by changes. Increased emotional arousal was also elicited, which was indexed by heart rate increases not driven by movement. Further study will be important to understand whether current intervention approaches that limit exposure to changes, may benefit from the structured integration of flexibility to ensure that the opportunity for routine establishment is also limited.

Gaze behavior of the visually impaired during street crossing.

PURPOSE:

This study explored the gaze patterns of fully sighted and visually impaired subjects during the high-risk activity of crossing the street.

METHODS:

Gaze behavior of 12 fully sighted subjects, nine with visual impairment resulting from age-related macular degeneration and 12 with impairment resulting from glaucoma, was monitored using a portable eye tracker as they crossed at two unfamiliar intersections.

RESULTS:

All subject groups fixated primarily on vehicles and crossing elements but changed their fixation behavior as they moved from "walking to the curb" to "standing at the curb" and to "crossing the street." A comparison of where subjects fixated in the 4-second time period before crossing showed that the fully sighted who waited for the light to change fixated on the light, whereas the fully sighted who crossed early fixated primarily on vehicles. Visually impaired subjects crossing early or waiting for the light fixate primarily on vehicles.

CONCLUSIONS:

Vision status affects fixation allocation while performing the high-risk activity of street crossing. Crossing decision-making strategy corresponds to fixation behavior only for the fully sighted subjects.

Signalling changes to individuals who show resistance to change can reduce challenging behaviour

Background & objectives Several neurodevelopmental disorders are associated with resistance to change and challenging behaviours – including temper outbursts – that ensue following changes to routines, plans or expectations (here, collectively: expectations). Here, a change signalling intervention was tested for proof of concept and potential practical effectiveness. Methods Twelve individuals with Prader-Willi syndrome participated in researcher- and caregiver-led pairing of a distinctive visual-verbal signal with subsequent changes to expectations. Specific expectations for a planned subset of five participants were systematically observed in minimally manipulated natural environments. Nine caregivers completed a temper outburst diary during a four week baseline period and a two week signalling evaluation period. Results Participants demonstrated consistently less temper outburst behaviour in the systematic observations when changes imposed to expectations were signalled, compared to when changes were not signalled. Four of the nine participants whose caregivers completed the behaviour diary demonstrated reliable reductions in temper outbursts between baseline and signalling evaluation. Limitations An active control group for the present initial evaluation of the signalling strategy using evidence from caregiver behaviour diaries was outside the scope of the present pilot study. Thus, findings cannot support the clinical efficacy of the present signalling approach. Conclusions Proof of concept evidence that reliable pairing of a distinctive cue with a subsequent change to expectation can reduce associated challenging behaviour is provided. Data provide additional support for the importance of specific practical steps in further evaluations of the change signalling approach.