The effects of climate change on ovine parasitic gastroenteritis determined using veterinary surveillance and meteorological data for Northern Ireland over the period 1999-2009

While the influence of temperature and moisture on the free-living stages of gastrointestinal nematodes have been described in detail, and evidence for global climate change is mounting, there have been only a few attempts to relate altered incidence or seasonal patterns of disease to climate change. Studies of this type have been completed for England Scotland and Wales, but not for Northern Ireland (NI). Here we present an analysis of veterinary diagnostic data that relates three categories of gastrointestinal nematode infection in sheep to historical meteorological data for NI. The infections are: trichostrongylosis/teladorsagiosis (Teladorsagia/Trichostrongylus), strongyloidosis and nematodirosis. This study aims to provide a baseline for future climate change analyses and to provide basic information for the development of nematode control programmes. After identifying and evaluating possible sources of bias, climate change was found to be the most likely explanation for the observed patterns of change in parasite epidemiology, although other hypotheses could not be refuted. Seasonal rates of diagnosis showed a uniform year-round distribution for Teladorsagia and Trichostrongylus infections, suggesting consistent levels of larval survival throughout the year and extension of the traditionally expected seasonal transmission windows. Nematodirosis showed a higher level of autumn than Spring infection, suggesting that suitable conditions for egg and larval development occurred after the Spring infection period. Differences between regions within the Province were shown for strongyloidosis, with peaks of infection falling in the period September-November. For all three-infection categories (trichostrongylosis/teladorsagiosis, strongyloidosis and nematodirosis), significant differences in the rates of diagnosis, and in the seasonality of disease, were identified between regions. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Varieties of Economic Crisis, Varieties of Ideational Change: How and Why Macroeconomic Policy and Financial Regulation Differ

One of the principal tasks facing post-crash academic political economy is to analyse patterns of ideational change and the conditions that produce such change. What has been missing from the existing literature on ideational change at times of crises however, is a sense of how processes of persuasive struggle, and how the success of those ‘norm entrepreneurs’ arguing for ideational change is shaped by two contextual variables: the most immediate material symptoms and problems that a crisis displays (the variety of crisis); and the institutional character of the policy subsystem that agents have to operate within to affect change. Introducing these two variables into our accounts of persuasive struggle and ideational change enables us to deepen our understanding of the dynamics of ideational change at times of crisis. The article identifies that a quite rapid and radical intellectual change has been evident in the field of financial regulation in the form of an embrace of a macroprudential frame. In contrast in the field of macroeconomic policy - both monetary and fiscal policy, many pre-crash beliefs remain prominent, there is evidence of ideational stickiness and inertia, and despite some policy experimentation, overarching policy frameworks and their rationales have not been overhauled. The article applies Peter Hall’s framework of three orders of policy changes to help illuminate and explain the variation in patterns of change in the fields of financial regulation and macroeconomic policy since the financial crash of 2008. The different patterns of ideational change in macroeconomic policy and financial regulation in the post-crash period can be explained by timing and variety of crisis; sequencing of policy change; and institutional political differences between micro policy sub systems and macro policy systems.

Validity of the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ) in assessing levels and change in moderate-vigorous physical activity and sedentary behaviour

Background

Feasible, cost-effective instruments are required for the surveillance of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and sedentary behaviour (SB) and to assess the effects of interventions. However, the evidence base for the validity and reliability of the World Health Organisation-endorsed Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ) is limited. We aimed to assess the validity of the GPAQ, compared to accelerometer data in measuring and assessing change in MVPA and SB.

Participants (n = 101) were selected randomly from an on-going research study, stratified by level of physical activity (low, moderate or highly active, based on the GPAQ) and sex. Participants wore an accelerometer (Actigraph GT3X) for seven days and completed a GPAQ on Day 7. This protocol was repeated for a random sub-sample at a second time point, 3–6 months later. Analysis involved Wilcoxon-signed rank tests for differences in measures, Bland-Altman analysis for the agreement between measures for median MVPA and SB mins/day, and Spearman’s rho coefficient for criterion validity and extent of change.

95 participants completed baseline measurements (44 females, 51 males; mean age 44 years, (SD 14); measurements of change were calculated for 41 (21 females, 20 males; mean age 46 years, (SD 14). There was moderate agreement between GPAQ and accelerometer for MVPA mins/day (r = 0.48) and poor agreement for SB (r = 0.19). The absolute mean difference (self-report minus accelerometer) for MVPA was −0.8 mins/day and 348.7 mins/day for SB; and negative bias was found to exist, with those people who were more physically active over-reporting their level of MVPA: those who were more sedentary were less likely to under-report their level of SB. Results for agreement in change over time showed moderate correlation (r = 0.52, p = 0.12) for MVPA and poor correlation for SB (r = −0.024, p = 0.916).

Levels of agreement with objective measurements indicate the GPAQ is a valid measure of MVPA and change in MVPA but is a less valid measure of current levels and change in SB. Thus, GPAQ appears to be an appropriate measure for assessing the effectiveness of interventions to promote MVPA.

Justifying accounting change through global discourses and legitimation strategies. The case of the UK central government.

Accounting has been viewed, especially through the lens of the recent managerial reforms, as a neutral technology that, in the hands of rational managers, can support effective and efficient decision making. However, the introduction of new accounting practices can be framed in a variety of ways, from value-neutral procedures to ideologically-charged instruments. Focusing on financial accounting, budgeting and performance management changes in the UK central government, and through extensive textual analysis and interviews in three government departments, this paper investigates: how accounting changes are discussed and introduced at the political level through the use of global discourses; and what strategies organisational actors subsequently use to talk about and legitimate such discourses at different organisational levels. The results shows that in political discussions there is a consistency between the discourses (largely NPM) and the accounting-related changes that took place. The research suggests that a cocktail of legitimation strategies was used by organisational actors to construct a sense of the changes, with authorisation, often in combination with, at the very least, rationalisation strategies most widely utilised. While previous literature posits that different actors tend to use the same rhetorical sequences during periods of change, this study highlights differences at different organisational levels.

Change in psychological distress in longer-term oesophageal cancer carers: are clusters of illness perception change a useful determinant?

Objective: This study provides a longitudinal assessment of distress in longer-term oesophageal cancer carers, while examining illness perception schema as a possible determinant of change in distress over time.
Methods: Oesophageal cancer carers (n=171), 48-months post-diagnosis, were assessed at baseline and 12-months later with the Illness Perception Questionnaire-Revised, Cancer Coping Questionnaire, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale and Concerns About Recurrence Scale.
Results: Findings report deterioration from normal to probable anxiety in 35.7% of carers and probable depression in 28.7% carers over time. Fear of recurrence remained stable. Changes in control, consequence and cause beliefs were identified as key determinants of a change in psychological morbidity.
Conclusions: Illness beliefs appear to be valuable targets for psychological intervention to improve wellbeing among carers of people with oesophageal cancer.

Climate change and the long-term viability of the World’s busiest heavy haul ice road

Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and sub-Arctic infrastructure dependent on maintaining low temperatures for structural integrity. This is the case for the economically important Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR)—the world’s busiest heavy haul ice road, spanning 400 km across mostly frozen lakes within the Northwest Territories of Canada. In this study, future climate scenarios are developed for the region using statistical downscaling methods. In addition, changes in lake ice thickness are projected based on historical relationships between measured ice thickness and air temperatures. These projections are used to infer the theoretical operational dates of the TCWR based on weight limits for trucks on the ice. Results across three climate models driven by four RCPs reveal a considerable warming trend over the coming decades. Projected changes in ice thickness reveal a trend towards thinner lake ice and a reduced time window when lake ice is at sufficient thickness to support trucks on the ice road, driven by increasing future temperatures. Given the uncertainties inherent in climate modelling and the resultant projections, caution should be exercised in interpreting the magnitude of these scenarios. More certain is the direction of change, with a clear trend towards winter warming that will reduce the operation time window of the TCWR. This illustrates the need for planners and policymakers to consider future changes in climate when planning annual haulage along the TCWR.

Discourses of equality in post-Agreement Northern Ireland

This article analyses the use of equality as a concept central to the implementation of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland. The authors argue that, although equality legislation is succeeding in redressing previous discrimination in society, the discourses that have emerged around it have exacerbated competition and polarization between communities for two main reasons. Firstly, in " selling' the Agreement to their supporters, political elites have appropriated community-specific definitions of the concept, thus reinforcing rather than weakening group differences. Secondly, the practice of equality legislation involves the definitive categorization of individuals as members of particular groups. This article examines these processes and their effects through the analysis of the discourse of nationalist and Unionist Party elites and of individual Catholics and Protestants. This is done in order to capture the dynamics of change in political communication and identification rather than simply describing institutional alterations.

Global and local contributions to the optical specification of time to contact: Observer sensitivity to composite tau

First-order time remaining until a moving observer will pass an environmental element is optically specified in two different ways. The specification provided by global tau (based on the pattern of change of angular bearing) requires that the element is stationary and that the direction of motion is accurately detected, whereas the specification provided by composite tau (based on the patterns of change of optical size and optical distance) does not require either of these. We obtained converging evidence,for our hypothesis. that observers are sensitive to composite tau in four experiments involving, relative judgments of, time to, passage with forced-choice methodology. Discrimination performance was enhanced in the presence of a local expansion component, while being unaffected when the detection of the direction of heading was impaired. Observers relied on the information carried in composite tau rather than on the information carried in its constituent components. Finally, performance was similar under conditions of observer motion and conditions of object motion. Because composite tau specifies first-order time remaining for a large number of situations, the different ways in which it may be detected are discussed.

Computerised Diagnostic Decision Support System for the Classification of Pre-Invasive Cervical Squamous Lesions.

Previous studies have revealed considerable interobserver and intraobserver variation in the histological classification of preinvasive cervical squamous lesions. The aim of the present study was to develop a decision support system (DSS) for the histological interpretation of these lesions. Knowledge and uncertainty were represented in the form of a Bayesian belief network that permitted the storage of diagnostic knowledge and, for a given case, the collection of evidence in a cumulative manner that provided a final probability for the possible diagnostic outcomes. The network comprised 8 diagnostic histological features (evidence nodes) that were each independently linked to the diagnosis (decision node) by a conditional probability matrix. Diagnostic outcomes comprised normal; koilocytosis; and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 1, CIN II, and CIN M. For each evidence feature, a set of images was recorded that represented the full spectrum of change for that feature. The system was designed to be interactive in that the histopathologist was prompted to enter evidence into the network via a specifically designed graphical user interface (i-Path Diagnostics, Belfast, Northern Ireland). Membership functions were used to derive the relative likelihoods for the alternative feature outcomes, the likelihood vector was entered into the network, and the updated diagnostic belief was computed for the diagnostic outcomes and displayed. A cumulative probability graph was generated throughout the diagnostic process and presented on screen. The network was tested on 50 cervical colposcopic biopsy specimens, comprising 10 cases each of normal, koilocytosis, CIN 1, CIN H, and CIN III. These had been preselected by a consultant gynecological pathologist. Using conventional morphological assessment, the cases were classified on 2 separate occasions by 2 consultant and 2 junior pathologists. The cases were also then classified using the DSS on 2 occasions by the 4 pathologists and by 2 medical students with no experience in cervical histology. Interobserver and intraobserver agreement using morphology and using the DSS was calculated with K statistics. Intraobserver reproducibility using conventional unaided diagnosis was reasonably good (kappa range, 0.688 to 0.861), but interobserver agreement was poor (kappa range, 0.347 to 0.747). Using the DSS improved overall reproducibility between individuals. Using the DSS, however, did not enhance the diagnostic performance of junior pathologists when comparing their DSS-based diagnosis against an experienced consultant. However, the generation of a cumulative probability graph also allowed a comparison of individual performance, how individual features were assessed in the same case, and how this contributed to diagnostic disagreement between individuals. Diagnostic features such as nuclear pleomorphism were shown to be particularly problematic and poorly reproducible. DSSs such as this therefore not only have a role to play in enhancing decision making but also in the study of diagnostic protocol, education, self-assessment, and quality control. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying strategies to maximise recruitment and retention of practices and patients in a multicentre randomised controlled trial of an intervention to optimise secondary prevention for coronary heart disease in primary care.

Background Recruitment and retention of patients and healthcare providers in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) is important in order to determine the effectiveness of interventions. However, failure to achieve recruitment targets is common and reasons why a particular recruitment strategy works for one study and not another remain unclear. We sought to describe a strategy used in a multicentre RCT in primary care, to report researchers’ and participants’ experiences of its implementation and to inform future strategies to maximise recruitment and retention. Methods In total 48 general practices and 903 patients were recruited from three different areas of Ireland to a RCT of an intervention designed to optimise secondary prevention of coronary heart disease. The recruitment process involved telephoning practices, posting information, visiting practices, identifying potential participants, posting invitations and obtaining consent. Retention involved patients attending reviews and responding to questionnaires and practices facilitating data collection. Results We achieved high retention rates for practices (100%) and for patients (85%) over an 18-month intervention period. Pilot work, knowledge of the setting, awareness of change in staff and organisation amongst participant sites, rapid responses to queries and acknowledgement of practitioners’ contributions were identified as being important. Minor variations in protocol and research support helped to meet varied, complex and changing individual needs of practitioners and patients and encouraged retention in the trial. A collaborative relationship between researcher and practice staff which required time to develop was perceived as vital for both recruitment and retention. Conclusions Recruiting and retaining the numbers of practices and patients estimated as required to provide findings with adequate power contributes to increased confidence in the validity and generalisability of RCT results. A continuous dynamic process of monitoring progress within trials and tailoring strategies to particular circumstances, whilst not compromising trial protocols, should allow maximal recruitment and retention.

Troubled Geographies: A Spatial History of Religion and Society in Ireland

Ireland’s landscape is marked by fault lines of religious, ethnic, and political identity that have shaped its troubled history. Troubled Geographies maps this history by detailing the patterns of change in Ireland from 16th century attempts to “plant” areas of Ireland with loyal English Protestants to defend against threats posed by indigenous Catholics, through the violence of the latter part of the 20th century and the rise of the “Celtic Tiger.” The book is concerned with how a geography laid down in the 16th and 17th centuries led to an amalgam based on religious belief, ethnic/national identity, and political conviction that continues to shape the geographies of modern Ireland. Troubled Geographies shows how changes in religious affiliation, identity, and territoriality have impacted Irish society during this period. It explores the response of society in general and religion in particular to major cultural shocks such as the Famine and to long term processes such as urbanization.

The effect of increased dietary fruit and vegetable consumption on endothelial activation, inflammation and oxidative stress in hypertensive volunteers

Background and aims

Public health campaigns recommend increased fruit and vegetable (FV) consumption as an effective means of cardiovascular risk reduction. During an 8 week randomised control trial among hypertensive volunteers, we noted significant improvements in endothelium-dependent vasodilatation with increasing FV consumption. Circulating indices of inflammation, endothelial activation and insulin resistance are often employed as alternative surrogates for systemic arterial health. The responses of several such biomarkers to our previously described FV intervention are reported here.
Methods and results

Hypertensive volunteers were recruited from medical outpatient clinics. After a common 4 week run-in period during which FV consumption was limited to 1 portion per day, participants were randomised to 1, 3 or 6 portions daily for 8 weeks. Venous blood samples for biomarker analyses were collected during the pre and post-intervention vascular assessments. A total of 117 volunteers completed the 12 week study. Intervention-related changes in circulating levels of high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), soluble intracellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1), soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (sVCAM-1), von Willebrand factor (vWF) and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) did not differ significantly between FV groups. Similarly, there were no significant between group differences of change in homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) scores.
Conclusions

Despite mediating a significant improvement in acetylcholine induced vasodilatation, increased FV consumption did not affect a calculated measure of insulin resistance or concentrations of the circulating biomarkers measured during this study. Functional indices of arterial health such as endothelium-dependent vasomotion are likely to provide more informative cardiovascular end-points during short-term dietary intervention trials.

Neonatal control of sucking pressures

Human newborns appear to regulate sucking pressure when bottle feeding by employing, with similar precision, the same principle of control evidenced by adults in skilled behavior, such as reaching (Lee et al., 1998a). In particular, the present study of 12 full-term newborn infants indicated that the intraoral sucking pressures followed an internal dynamic prototype - an intrinsic tau-guide. The intrinsic tau-guide, a recent hypothesis of general tau theory is a time-varying quantity, tau(g), assumed to be generated within the nervous system. It corresponds to some quantity (e.g., electrical charge), chang ing with a constant second-order temporal derivative from a rest level to a goal level, in the sense that tau(g) equals tau of the gap between the quantity and its goal level at each time t. (tau of a gap is the rime-to-closure of the gap at the current closure-rate.) According to the hypoth esis, the infant senses tau(p), the tau of the gap between the current intraoral pressure and its goal level, and regulates intraoral pressure so that tau(p) and tau(g) remain coupled in a constant ratio, k; i.e., tau(p) = k tau(g). With k in the range 0-1, the tau-coupling would result in a bell-shaped rate of change pressure profile, as was, in fact, found. More specifically, the high mean r(2) values obtained when regressing tau(p) on tau(g), for both the increasing and decreasing suction periods of the infants' suck, supported a strong tau-coupling between tau(p) and tau(g). The mean k values were significantly higher In the Increasing suction period, indicating that the ending of the movement was more forceful, a finding which makes sense given the different functions of the two periods of the suck.

Rise time and formant transition duration in the discrimination of speech sounds: The Ba–Wa distinction in developmental dyslexia

Across languages, children with developmental dyslexia have a specific difficulty with the neural representation of the sound structure (phonological structure) of speech. One likely cause of their difficulties with phonology is a perceptual difficulty in auditory temporal processing (Tallal, 1980). Tallal (1980) proposed that basic auditory processing of brief, rapidly successive acoustic changes is compromised in dyslexia, thereby affecting phonetic discrimination (e.g. discriminating /b/ from /d/) via impaired discrimination of formant transitions (rapid acoustic changes in frequency and intensity). However, an alternative auditory temporal hypothesis is that the basic auditory processing of the slower amplitude modulation cues in speech is compromised (Goswami , 2002). Here, we contrast children's perception of a synthetic speech contrast (ba/wa) when it is based on the speed of the rate of change of frequency information (formant transition duration) versus the speed of the rate of change of amplitude modulation (rise time). We show that children with dyslexia have excellent phonetic discrimination based on formant transition duration, but poor phonetic discrimination based on envelope cues. The results explain why phonetic discrimination may be allophonic in developmental dyslexia (Serniclaes , 2004), and suggest new avenues for the remediation of developmental dyslexia. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.