Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened forest-restricted birds in Madagascar

The greatest common threat to birds in Madagascar has historically been from anthropogenic deforestation. During recent decades, global climate change is now also regarded as a significant threat to biodiversity. This study uses Maximum Entropy species distribution modeling to explore how potential climate change could affect the distribution of 17 threatened forest endemic bird species, using a range of climate variables from the Hadley Center's HadCM3 climate change model, for IPCC scenario B2a, for 2050. We explore the importance of forest cover as a modeling variable and we test the use of pseudo-presences drawn from extent of occurrence distributions. Inclusion of the forest cover variable improves the models and models derived from real-presence data with forest layer are better predictors than those from pseudo-presence data. Using real-presence data, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on the distribution of nine species. We could not predict the impact of climate change on eight species because of low numbers of occurrences. All nine species were predicted to experience reductions in their total range areas, and their maximum modeled probabilities of occurrence. In general, species range and altitudinal contractions follow the reductive trend of the Maximum presence probability. Only two species (Tyto soumagnei and Newtonia fanovanae) are expected to expand their altitude range. These results indicate that future availability of suitable habitat at different elevations is likely to be critical for species persistence through climate change. Five species (Eutriorchis astur, Neodrepanis hypoxantha, Mesitornis unicolor, Euryceros prevostii, and Oriola bernieri) are probably the most vulnerable to climate change. Four of them (E. astur, M. unicolor, E. prevostii, and O. bernieri) were found vulnerable to the forest fragmentation during previous research. Combination of these two threats in the future could negatively affect these species in a drastic way. Climate change is expected to act differently on each species and it is important to incorporate complex ecological variables into species distribution models.

Numerical Study of Film Cooling Scheme on a Blunt-Nosed Body in Hypersonic Flow

In hypersonic flight, the prediction of aerodynamic heating and the construction of a proper thermal protection system (TPS) are significantly important. In this study, the method of a film cooling technique, which is already the state of the art in cooling of gas turbine engines, is proposed for a fully reusable and active TPS. Effectiveness of the film cooling scheme to reduce convective heating rates for a blunt-nosed spacecraft flying at Mach number 6.56 and 40 deg angle of attack is investigated numerically. The inflow boundary conditions used the standard values at an altitude of 30 km. The computational domain consists of infinite rows of film cooling holes on the bottom of a blunt-nosed slab. Laminar and several turbulent calculations have been performed and compared. The influence of blowing ratios on the film cooling effectiveness is investigated. The results exhibit that the film cooling technique could be an effective method for an active cooling of blunt-nosed bodies in hypersonic flows.

Palaeoglacial and palaeoclimatic conditions in the NW Pacific, as revealed by a morphometric analysis of cirques upon the Kamchatka Peninsula

The distribution of glacial cirques upon the Kamchatka peninsula, Far Eastern Russia, is systematically mapped from satellite images and digital elevation model data. A total of 3,758 cirques are identified, 238 of which are occupied by active glaciers. The morphometry of the remaining 3,520 cirques is analysed. These cirques are found to show a very strong N bias in their azimuth (orientation), likely resulting from aspect-related variations in insolation. The strength of this N bias is considered to indicate that former glaciation upon the peninsula was often ‘marginal’, and mainly of cirque-type, with peaks extending little above regional equilibrium-line altitudes. This is supported by the fact that S and SE-facing cirques are the highest in the dataset, suggesting that glacier-cover was rarely sufficient to allow S and SE-facing glaciers to develop at low altitudes. The strength of these azimuth-related variations in cirque altitude is thought to reflect comparatively cloud-free conditions during former periods of glaciation. It is suggested that these characteristics, of marginal glaciation and comparatively cloud-free conditions, reflect the region’s former aridity, which was likely intensified at the global Last Glacial Maximum, and during earlier periods of ice advance, as a result of the development of negative pressure anomalies over the North Pacific (driven by the growth of the Laurentide Ice Sheet), combined with other factors, including an increase in the extent and duration of sea ice, a reduction in global sea levels, cooler sea surface temperatures, and the localised growth of mountain glaciers. There is published evidence to suggest extensive glaciation of the Kamchatka Peninsula at times during the Late Quaternary, yet the data presented here appears to suggest that such phases were comparatively short-lived, and that smaller cirque-type glaciers were generally more characteristic of the period.

Patterns of Holocene relative sea level change in the North of Britain and Ireland

Temporal and spatial patterns of relative sea level (RSL) change in the North of Britain and Ireland during the Holocene are examined. Four episodes, each defined by marked changes in the RSL trend, are identified. Each episode is marked by a rise to a culminating shoreline followed by a fall. Episode HRSL-1 dates from the Younger Dryas to early in the Holocene; HRSL-2 to HRSL-4 occurred later in the Holocene. There is extensive evidence for each episode, and on this basis the spatial distribution of the altitude data for three culminating shorelines and a shoreline formed at the time of the Holocene Storegga Slide tsunami (ca 8110 ± 100 cal. BP) is analysed. Ordinary Kriging is used to determine the general pattern, following which Gaussian Trend Surface Analysis is employed. Recognising that empirical measurements of RSL change can be unevenly distributed spatially, a new approach is introduced which enables the developing pattern to be identified. The patterns for the most widely occurring shorelines were analysed and found to be similar and common centre and axis models were developed for all shorelines. The analyses described provide models of the spatial pattern of Holocene RSL change in the area between ca 8100 cal. BP and ca 1000 cal. BP based on 2262 high resolution shoreline altitude measurements. These models fit the data closely, no shoreline altitude measurement lying more than −1.70 m or +1.82 m from the predicted value. The models disclose a similar pattern to a recently published Glacial Isostatic Adjustment model for present RSL change across the area, indicating that the overall spatial pattern of RSL change may not have varied greatly during the last ca 8000 years.

Role of Predalors, Habitat Attributes, and Spatial Autocorrelation on the Distribution of Eggs in the Northern Spectacled Salamander (Salamandrina perspicillata)

We predicted that the probability of egg occurrence of salamander Salamandrina perspicillata depended on stream features and predation by native crayfish Austropotamobius fulcisianus and the introduced trout Salmo trutta. We assessed the presence of S. perspicillata at 54 sites within a natural reserve of southern Tuscany, Italy. Generalized linear models with binomial errors were constructed using egg presence/absence and altitude, stream mean size and slope, electrical conductivity, water pH and temperature, and a predation factor, defined according to the presence/absence of crayfish and trout. Some competing models also included an autocovariate term, which estimated how much the response variable at any one sampling point reflected response values at surrounding points. The resulting models were compared using Akaike's information criterion. Model selection led to a subset of 14 models with Delta AIC(c) <7 (i.e., models ranging from substantial support to considerably less support), and all but one of these included an effect of predation. Models with the autocovariate term had considerably more support than those without the term. According to multimodel inference, the presence of trout and crayfish reduced the probability of egg occurrence from a mean level of 0.90 (SE limits: 0.98-0.55) to 0.12 (SE limits: 0.34-0.04). The presence of crayfish alone had no detectable effects (SE limits: 0.86-0.39). The results suggest that introduced trout have a detrimental effect on the reproductive output of S. perspicillata and confirm the fundamental importance of distinguishing the roles of endogenous and exogenous forces that act on population distribution.

An Update on Sedimentary Pigments in Victoria Land Lakes (East Antarctica)

Antarctic ice-free areas contain lakes and ponds that have interesting limnological features and are of wide global significance as early warning indicators of climatic and environmental change. However, most linmological and paleolimnological studies in continental Antarctica are limited to certain regions. There are several ice-free areas in Victoria Land that have not yet been studied well. There is therefore a need to extend limnological studies in space and time to understand how different geological and climatic features affect the composition and biological activity of freshwater communities. With the aim of contributing to a better limnological characterization of Victoria Land, this paper reports data on sedimentary pigments (used to identify the main algal taxa) obtained through a methodology that is more sensitive and selective than that of previous studies. Analyses were extended to 48 water bodies in ice-free areas with differing lithology, latitude, and altitude, and with different morphometry and physical, chemical, and biological characteristics in order to identify environmental factors affecting the distribution and composition of freshwater autotrophic communities. A wider knowledge of lakes in a limnologically important region of Antarctica was obtained. Cyanophyta was found to be the most important algal group, followed by Chlorophyta and Bacillariophyta, whereas latitude and altitude are the main factors affecting pigment distribution.

Identifying appropriate sampling and modelling approaches for analysing distributional patterns of Antarctic terrestrial arthropods along the Victoria Land latitudinal gradient

Biotic communities in Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems are relatively simple and often lack higher trophic levels (e. g. predators); thus, it is often assumed that species' distributions are mainly affected by abiotic factors such as climatic conditions, which change with increasing latitude, altitude and/or distance from the coast. However, it is becoming increasingly apparent that factors other than geographical gradients affect the distribution of organisms with low dispersal capability such as the terrestrial arthropods. In Victoria Land (East Antarctica) the distribution of springtail (Collembola) and mite (Acari) species vary at scales that range from a few square centimetres to regional and continental. Different species show different scales of variation that relate to factors such as local geological and glaciological history, and biotic interactions, but only weakly with latitudinal/altitudinal gradients. Here, we review the relevant literature and outline more appropriate sampling designs as well as suitable modelling techniques (e. g. linear mixed models and eigenvector mapping), that will more adequately address and identify the range of factors responsible for the distribution of terrestrial arthropods in Antarctica.

Large-scale spatial patterns in the distribution of Collembola (Hexapoda) species in Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems

We tested whether the distribution of three common springtail species (Gressittacantha terranova, Gomphiocephalus hodgsoni and Friesea grisea) in Victoria Land (Antarctica) could be modelled as a function of latitude, longitude, altitude and distance from the sea.

Victoria Land, Ross Dependency, Antarctica.

Generalized linear models were constructed using species presence/absence data relative to geographical features (latitude, longitude, altitude, distance from sea) across the species' entire ranges. Model results were then integrated with the known phylogeography of each species and hypotheses were generated on the role of climate as a major driver of Antarctic springtail distribution.

Based on model selection using Akaike's information criterion, the species' distributions were: hump-shaped relative to longitude and monotonic with altitude for Gressittacantha terranova; hump-shaped relative to latitude and monotonic with altitude for Gomphiocephalus hodgsoni; and hump-shaped relative to longitude and monotonic with latitude, altitude and distance from the sea for Friesea grisea.

No single distributional pattern was shared by the three species. While distributions were partially a response to climatic spatial clines, the patterns observed strongly suggest that past geological events have influenced the observed distributions. Accordingly, present-day spatial patterns are likely to have arisen from the interaction of historical and environmental drivers. Future studies will need to integrate a range of spatial and temporal scales to further quantify their respective roles.

Numerical study of film cooling scheme on a blunt-nosed body in hypersonic flow

In hypersonic flights, the prediction of aerodynamic heating and the construction of a proper thermal protection system (TPS) are significantly important. In this study, the method of a film cooling technique, which is already the state of the art in cooling gas turbine engine, is proposed for a fully reusable and active TPS. Effectiveness of the film cooling scheme to reduce convective heating rates for a blunt nosed spacecraft flying at Mach number 6.56 and 40 degree angle of attack is investigated numerically. The inflow boundary conditions used the standard values at an altitude of 30 km. Computational domain consists of infinite rows of film cooling holes on the bottom of a blunt-nosed slab. Laminar and several turbulent calculations have been performed and compared each other. The influence of blowing ratios on the film cooling effectiveness is investigated. The results exhibit that the film cooling technique could be an effective method for an active cooling of blunt-nosed bodies in hypersonic flows.

Testing the efficacy of the glacial buzzsaw: insights from the Sredinny Mountains, Kamchatka

Peak altitudes, hypsometry, geology, and former equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) are analyzed across the Sredinny Mountains (Kamchatka). Overall, evidence is found to suggest that the glacial buzzsaw has operated to shape the topography of this mountain range, but the strength of this signature is not spatially uniform. In the southern sector of the mountains, we see evidence that an efficient glacial buzzsaw has acted to impose constraints upon topography, limiting peak altitudes, and concentrating land-surface area (hypsometric maxima) close to palaeo-ELAs. By contrast, in the northern sector of the mountains, a number of peaks rise high above the surrounding topography, and land-surface area is concentrated well below palaeo-ELAs. This deviation from a classic ‘buzzsaw signature’, in the northern sector of the mountains, is considered to reflect volcanic construction during the Quaternary, resulting in a series of high altitude peaks, combined with the action of dynamic glaciers, acting to skew basin topography toward low altitudes, well below palaeo-ELAs. These glaciers are considered to have been particularly dynamic because of their off-shore termination, their proximity to moisture-bearing air masses from the North Pacific, and because accumulation was supplemented by snow and ice avalanching from local high altitude peaks. Overall, the data suggest that the buzzsaw remains a valid mechanism to generally explain landscape evolution in mountain regions, but its signature is significantly weakened in mountain basins that experience both volcanic construction and climatic conditions favouring dynamic glaciation.

Long-term mass balance of perennial firn and ice in an Alpine cave (Austria):Constraints from radiocarbon-dated wood fragments

Hundsalm ice cave located at 1520 m altitude in a karst region of western Austria contains up to 7-m-thick deposits of snow, firn and congelation ice. Wood fragments exposed in the lower parts of an ice and firn wall were radiocarbon accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) dated. Although the local stratigraphy is complex, the 19 individual dates - the largest currently available radiocarbon dataset for an Alpine ice cave - allow to place constraints on the accumulation and ablation history of the cave ice. Most of the cave was either ice free or contained only a small firn and ice body during the 'Roman Warm Period'; dates of three wood fragments mark the onset of firn and ice build-up in the 6th and 7th century ad. In the central part of the cave, the oldest samples date back to the 13th century and record ice growth coeval with the onset of the 'Little Ice Age'. The majority of the ice and firn deposit, albeit compromised by a disturbed stratigraphy, appears to have been formed during the subsequent centuries, supported by wood samples from the 15th to the 17th century. The oldest wood remains found so far inside the ice is from the end of the Bronze Age and implies that local relics of prehistoric ice may be preserved in this cave. The wood record from Hundsalm ice cave shows parallels to the Alpine glacier history of the last three millennia, for example, the lack of preserved wood remains during periods of known glacier minima, and underscores the potential of firn and ice in karst cavities as a long-term palaeoclimate archive, which has been degrading at an alarming rate in recent years. © The Author(s) 2013.

A geochronologic framework for the Ziegler Reservoir fossil site, Snowmass Village, Colorado

The Ziegler Reservoir fossil site near Snowmass Village, Colorado, provides a unique opportunity to reconstruct high-altitude paleoenvironmental conditions in the Rocky Mountains during the last interglacial period. We used four different techniques to establish a chronological framework for the site. Radiocarbon dating of lake organics, bone collagen, and shell carbonate, and in situ cosmogenic Be and Al ages on a boulder on the crest of a moraine that impounded the lake suggest that the ages of the sediments that hosted the fossils are between ~ 140 ka and > 45 ka. Uranium-series ages of vertebrate remains generally fall within these bounds, but extremely low uranium concentrations and evidence of open-system behavior limit their utility. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages (n = 18) obtained from fine-grained quartz maintain stratigraphic order, were replicable, and provide reliable ages for the lake sediments. Analysis of the equivalent dose (D) dispersion of the OSL samples showed that the sediments were fully bleached prior to deposition and low scatter suggests that eolian processes were likely the dominant transport mechanism for fine-grained sediments into the lake. The resulting ages show that the fossil-bearing sediments span the latest part of marine isotope stage (MIS) 6, all of MIS 5 and MIS 4, and the earliest part of MIS 3.

Systemic oxidative-nitrosative-inflammatory stress during acute exercise in hypoxia; implications for microvascular oxygenation and aerobic capacity

New Findings

What is the central question of this study?Exercise performance is limited during hypoxia by a critical reduction in cerebral and skeletal tissue oxygenation. To what extent an elevation in systemic free radical accumulation contributes to microvascular deoxygenation and the corresponding reduction in maximal aerobic capacity remains unknown.What is the main finding and its importance?We show that altered free radical metabolism is not a limiting factor for exercise performance in hypoxia, providing important insight into the fundamental mechanisms involved in the control of vascular oxygen transport.

Exercise performance in hypoxia may be limited by a critical reduction in cerebral and skeletal tissue oxygenation, although the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. We examined whether increased systemic free radical accumulation during hypoxia would be associated with elevated microvascular deoxygenation and reduced maximal aerobic capacity (). Eleven healthy men were randomly assigned single-blind to an incremental semi-recumbent cycling test to determine  in both normoxia (21% O_{2) and hypoxia (12% O2) separated by a week. Continuous-wave near-infrared spectroscopy was employed to monitor concentration changes in oxy- and deoxyhaemoglobin in the left vastus lateralis muscle and frontal cerebral cortex. Antecubital venous blood samples were obtained at rest and at  to determine oxidative (ascorbate radical by electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy), nitrosative (nitric oxide metabolites by ozone-based chemiluminescence and 3-nitrotyrosine by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) and inflammatory stress biomarkers (soluble intercellular/vascular cell adhesion 1 molecules by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay). Hypoxia was associated with increased cerebral and muscle tissue deoxygenation and lower  (P < 0.05 versus normoxia). Despite an exercise-induced increase in oxidative–nitrosative–inflammatory stress, hypoxia per se did not have an additive effect (P > 0.05 versus normoxia). Consequently, we failed to observe correlations between any metabolic, haemodynamic and cardiorespiratory parameters (P > 0.05). Collectively, these findings suggest that altered free radical metabolism cannot explain the elevated microvascular deoxygenation and corresponding lower  in hypoxia. Further research is required to determine whether free radicals when present in excess do indeed contribute to the premature termination of exercise in hypoxia.}

Conduit artery structure and function in lowlanders and native highlanders: relationships with oxidative stress and role of sympathoexcitation

Research detailing the normal vascular adaptions to high altitude is minimal and often confounded by pathology (e.g. chronic mountain sickness) and methodological issues. We examined vascular function and structure in: (1) healthy lowlanders during acute hypoxia and prolonged (∼2 weeks) exposure to high altitude, and (2) high-altitude natives at 5050 m (highlanders). In 12 healthy lowlanders (aged 32 ± 7 years) and 12 highlanders (Sherpa; 33 ± 14 years) we assessed brachial endothelium-dependent flow-mediated dilatation (FMD), endothelium-independent dilatation (via glyceryl trinitrate; GTN), common carotid intima–media thickness (CIMT) and diameter (ultrasound), and arterial stiffness via pulse wave velocity (PWV; applanation tonometry). Cephalic venous biomarkers of free radical-mediated lipid peroxidation (lipid hydroperoxides, LOOH), nitrite (NO₂^–) and lipid soluble antioxidants were also obtained at rest. In lowlanders, measurements were performed at sea level (334 m) and between days 3–4 (acute high altitude) and 12–14 (chronic high altitude) following arrival to 5050 m. Highlanders were assessed once at 5050 m. Compared with sea level, acute high altitude reduced lowlanders’ FMD (7.9 ± 0.4 vs. 6.8 ± 0.4%; P = 0.004) and GTN-induced dilatation (16.6 ± 0.9 vs. 14.5 ± 0.8%; P = 0.006), and raised central PWV (6.0 ± 0.2vs. 6.6 ± 0.3 m s⁻¹; P = 0.001). These changes persisted at days 12–14, and after allometrically scaling FMD to adjust for altered baseline diameter. Compared to lowlanders at sea level and high altitude, highlanders had a lower carotid wall:lumen ratio (∼19%, P ≤ 0.04), attributable to a narrower CIMT and wider lumen. Although both LOOH and NO₂^– increased with high altitude in lowlanders, only LOOH correlated with the reduction in GTN-induced dilatation evident during acute (n = 11, r = −0.53) and chronic (n = 7, r = −0.69; P ≤ 0.01) exposure to 5050 m. In a follow-up, placebo-controlled experiment (n = 11 healthy lowlanders) conducted in a normobaric hypoxic chamber (inspired O₂ fraction () = 0.11; 6 h), a sustained reduction in FMD was evident within 1 h of hypoxic exposure when compared to normoxic baseline (5.7 ± 1.6 vs. 8.0 ±1.3%; P < 0.01); this decline in FMD was largely reversed following α₁-adrenoreceptor blockade. In conclusion, high-altitude exposure in lowlanders caused persistent impairment in vascular function, which was mediated partially via oxidative stress and sympathoexcitation. Although a lifetime of high-altitude exposure neither intensifies nor attenuates the impairments seen with short-term exposure, chronic high-altitude exposure appears to be associated with arterial remodelling.

Climatic signals in the life histories of insects:the distribution and abundance of heather psyllids (Strophingia spp.) in the UK

1. The population density and age structure of two species of heather psyllid Strophingia ericae and Strophingia cinereae, feeding on Calluna vulgaris and Erica cinerea, respectively, were sampled using standardized methods at locations throughout Britain. Locations were chosen to represent the full latitudinal and altitudinal range of the host plants.

2. The paper explains how spatial variation in thermal environment, insect life-history characteristics and physiology, and plant distribution, interact to provide the mechanisms that determine the range and abundance of Strophingia spp.

3. Strophingia ericae and S. cinereae, despite the similarity in the spatial distribution patterns of their host plants within Britain, display strongly contrasting geographical ranges and corresponding life-history strategies. Strophingia ericae is found on its host plant throughout Britain but S. cinereae is restricted to low elevation sites south of the Mersey-Humber line and occupies only part of the latitudinal and altitudinal range of its host plant. There is no evidence to suggest that S. ericae has reached its potential altitudinal or latitudinal limit in the UK, even though its host plant appears to reach its altitudinal limit.

4. There was little difference in the ability of the two Strophingia spp. to survive shortterm exposure to temperatures as low as - 15 degrees C and low winter temperatures probably do not limit distribution in S. cinereae.

5. Population density of S. ericae was not related to altitude but showed a weak correlation with latitude. The spread of larval instars present at a site, measured as an index of instar homogeneity, was significantly correlated with a range of temperature related variables, of which May mean temperature and length of growing season above 3 degrees C (calculated using the Lennon and Turner climatic model) were the most significant. Factor analysis did not improve the level of correlation significantly above those obtained for single climatic variables. The data confirmed that S. ericae has a I year life cycle at the lowest elevations and a 2 year life cycle at the higher elevations. However, there was no evidence, as previously suggested, for an abrupt change from a one to a 2 year life cycle in S. ericae with increasing altitudes or latitudes.

6. By contrast with S. ericae, S. cinereae had an obligatory 1 year life cycle, its population decreased with altitude and the index of instar homogeneity showed little correlation with single temperature variables. Moreover, it occupied only part of the range of its host plant and its spatial distribution in the UK could be predicted with 96% accuracy using selected variables in discriminant analysis.

7. The life histories of the congeneric heather psyllids reflect adaptations that allow them to exploit host plants with different distributions in climatic and thereby geographical space. Strophingia ericae has the flexible life history that enables it to exploit C. vulgaris throughout its European boreal temperate range. Strophingia cinereae has a less flexible life history and is adapted for living on an oceanic temperate host. While the geographic ranges of the two Strophingia spp. overlap within the UK, the psyllids appear to respond differently to variation in their thermal environment.