Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Aircraft Operating Costs in Structural Design Optimization

The paper focuses on the development of an aircraft design optimization methodology that models uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the tradeoff between manufacturing cost, structural requirements, andaircraft direct operating cost.Specifically,ratherthanonlylooking atmanufacturingcost, direct operatingcost is also consideredintermsof the impact of weight on fuel burn, in addition to the acquisition cost to be borne by the operator. Ultimately, there is a tradeoff between driving design according to minimal weight and driving it according to reduced manufacturing cost. Theanalysis of cost is facilitated withagenetic-causal cost-modeling methodology,andthe structural analysis is driven by numerical expressions of appropriate failure modes that use ESDU International reference data. However, a key contribution of the paper is to investigate the modeling of uncertainty and to perform a sensitivity analysis to investigate the robustness of the optimization methodology. Stochastic distributions are used to characterize manufacturing cost distributions, andMonteCarlo analysis is performed in modeling the impact of uncertainty on the cost modeling. The results are then used in a sensitivity analysis that incorporates the optimization methodology. In addition to investigating manufacturing cost variance, the sensitivity of the optimization to fuel burn cost and structural loading are also investigated. It is found that the consideration of manufacturing cost does make an impact and results in a different optimal design configuration from that delivered by the minimal-weight method. However, it was shown that at lower applied loads there is a threshold fuel burn cost at which the optimization process needs to reduce weight, and this threshold decreases with increasing load. The new optimal solution results in lower direct operating cost with a predicted savings of 640=m2 of fuselage skin over the life, relating to a rough order-of-magnitude direct operating cost savings of $500,000 for the fuselage alone of a small regional jet. Moreover, it was found through the uncertainty analysis that the principle was not sensitive to cost variance, although the margins do change.

Costs, outputs and outcomes in school PFI contracts and the significance of project size

This article examines operational Private Finance Initiative (PFI) school projects and reports the experiences of UK headteachers. It considers the impact of project size on value for money (VFM). Headteachers involved in small projects are more satisfied with costs than those involved in large projects, but headteachers involved in larger projects are more satisfied with affordability. Generally, heads are more satisfied with the buildings than with the services. The authors question the government’s recent policy changes to increase the size of PFI projects.

Assessing the Transaction Costs of Firms in the EU ETS: Lessons form Ireland

Until now, there has been little empirical evidence that EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) transaction costs are incurred at firm level. The transaction costs (internal costs, capital costs, consultancy and trading costs) incurred by Irish firms under the EU ETS during its pilot phase (2005-2007) were measured and analysed. Evidence for the sources of transaction costs, their magnitude and the distribution of costs shows that these were mainly administrative in nature. Considerable variation in costs was found due to economies of scale, as the costs per tonne of CO2 were lower for participants with larger allocations. For the largest firms - accounting for over half the emissions - average transaction costs were €0.05 per tonne. However, for small firms, average transaction costs were €2.02 - over 18% of the current allowance price. This supports the concerns that transaction costs are excessive for smaller participants. The immediate policy implication is that additional attention will be needed to address different sizes of firms, number of installations per firm, and the size of the initial allocations.

Solving exchange rate puzzles with neither sticky prices nor trade costs

We present a simple framework in which both the exchange rate disconnect and forward bias puzzles are simultaneously resolved. The flexible-price two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. Habitpersistence is modeled using Campbell Cochrane preferences with ‘deep’ habits along the lines of the work of Ravn, Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe. By deep habits, we mean habits defined over goods rather than countries. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. It offers a neo-classical explanation of the Meese–Rogoff puzzle and mimics the failure of fundamentals to explain nominal exchange rates in a linear setting. Finally, the model naturally generates the negative slope in the standard forward market regression.

The pitfall with PIT tags: Marking freshwater bivalves for translocation induces short-term behavioural costs

Tagging animals is frequently employed in ecological studies to monitor individual behaviour, for example postrelease survival and dispersal of captive-bred animals used in conservation programmes. While the majority of studies focus on the efficacy of tags in facilitating the relocation and identification of individuals, few assess the direct effects of tagging in biasing animal behaviour. We used an experimental approach with a control to differentiate the effects of handling and tagging captive-bred juvenile freshwater pearl mussels, Margaritifera margaritifera, prior to release into the wild. Marking individuals with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags significantly decreased their burrowing rate and, therefore, increased the time taken to burrow into the substrate. This effect was contributed to, in part, by the detrimental impacts of handling, which also significantly affected activity, burrowing ability and the time taken for each individual to emerge and start probing the substrate. Disturbance during handling and tagging may lead to indirect mortality after release by increasing the risk of predation or dislodgement during flooding, thereby potentially compromising any conservation strategy contingent on population supplementation or reintroduction. This is the first study to demonstrate that handling and PIT tagging has a detrimental impact on invertebrate behaviour. Moreover, our results provide useful information that will inform freshwater bivalve conservation strategies.

UK Food Standards Agency Workshop Report: Diet and Immune Function

The UK Food Standards Agency convened a workshop on 13 May 2009 to discuss recently completed research on diet and immune function. The objective of the workshop was to review this research and to establish priorities for future research. Several of the trials presented at the workshop showed some effect of nutritional interventions (e.g. vitamin D, Zn, Se) on immune parameters. One trial found that increased fruit and vegetable intake may improve the antibody response to pneumococcal vaccination in older people. The workshop highlighted the need to further clarify the potential public health relevance of observed nutrition-related changes in immune function, e.g. susceptibility to infections and infectious morbidity.

UK Food Standards Agency Workshop Report: carbohydrate and cardiovascular risk

This report summarises a workshop convened by the UK Food Standards Agency (FSA) on 14 October 2008 to discuss current FSA-funded research on carbohydrates and cardiovascular health. The objective of this workshop was to discuss the results of recent research and to identify any areas which could inform future FSA research calls. This workshop highlighted that the FSA is currently funding some of the largest, well-powered intervention trials investigating the type of fat and carbohydrate, whole grains and fruit and vegetables, on various CVD risk factors. Results of these trials will make a substantive contribution to the evidence on diet and cardiovascular risk.