Targeting poverty: Lessons from monitoring Ireland's national anti-poverty strategy

In 1997 the Irish government adopted the National Anti-Poverty Strategy (NAPS), a global target for the reduction of poverty which illuminates a range of issues relating to official poverty targets. The Irish target is framed in terms of a relative poverty measure incorporating both relative income and direct measures of deprivation based on data on the extent of poverty from 1994. Since 1994 Ireland has experienced an unprecedented period of economic growth that makes it particularly important to assess whether the target has been achieved, but in doing so we cannot avoid asking some underlying questions about how poverty should be measured and monitored over time. After briefly outlining the nature of the NAPS measure, this article examines trends in poverty in Ireland between 1987 and 1997, Results show that the relative income and deprivation components of the NAPS measure reveal differential trends with increasing relative income poverty, but decreasing deprivation. However, this differential could be due to the fact that the direct measures of deprivation upon which NAPS is based have not been updated to take account of changes in real living standards and increasing expectations. To test whether this is so, we examine the extent to which expectations about living standards and the structure of deprivation have changed over time using confirmatory factor analysis and tests of criterion validity using different definitions of deprivation. Results show that the combined income and deprivation measure, as originally constituted, continues to identify a set of households experiencing generalised deprivation resulting from a lack of resources.

The importance of solid-phase distribution on the oral bioaccessibility of Ni and Cr in soils overlying Palaeogene basalt lavas, Northern Ireland

Potentially toxic elements (PTEs) including nickel and chromium are often present in soils overlying basalt at concentrations above regulatory guidance values due to the presence of these elements in underlying geology. Oral bioaccessibility testing allows the risk posed by PTEs to human health to be assessed; however, bioaccessibility is controlled by factors including mineralogy, particle size, solid-phase speciation and encapsulation. X-ray diffraction was used to characterise the mineralogy of 12 soil samples overlying Palaeogene basalt lavas in Northern Ireland, and non-specific sequential extraction coupled with chemometric analysis was used to determine the distribution of elements amongst soil components in 3 of these samples. The data obtained were related to total concentration and oral bioaccessible concentration to determine whether a relationship exists between the overall concentrations of PTEs, their bioaccessibility and the soils mineralogy and geochemistry. Gastric phase bioaccessible fraction (BAF %) ranged from 0.4 to 5.4 % for chromium in soils overlying basalt and bioaccessible and total chromium concentrations are positively correlated. In contrast, the range of gastric phase BAF for nickel was greater (1.4–43.8 %), while no significant correlation was observed between bioaccessible and total nickel concentrations. However, nickel BAF was inversely correlated with total concentration. Solid-phase fractionation information showed that bioaccessible nickel was associated with calcium carbonate, aluminium oxide, iron oxide and clay-related components, while bioaccessible chromium was associated with clay-related components. This suggests that weathering significantly affects nickel bioaccessibility, but does not have the same effect on the bioaccessibility of chromium.

Patterns of use of natural health products by Ontario seniors

A random dialing telephone survey of 1,071 60+ year-olds in 4 Ontario communities identified 553 (52%) users of natural health products. Mean age was 72 yrs (min-max:60-95); 76% were female. The most frequently reported natural health products were: echinacea (27%), glucosamine (26%), garlic (20%), ginkgo biloba (10%), St. John's wort (5%), ginseng (5%), flax seed oil (3%), evening primrose oil (2%), devil's claw (2%), saw palmetto (2%). Natural source vitamin use was reported by 24% of users, and 6% reporting using herbal teas. 51% of users used 2 or more herbal products and 8% used 5 or more products. 19% of herbal users also used a conventional prescription drug to manage the same health problem as the herbal product. The reported range of monthly expenditures for these products varied from a few cents (grew their own) to $288 (CAN). Thirty-five percent of users did not know the price of at least one of their natural products. Of the 75% of respondents willing to disclose their annual household income ($CAN), 20 had an income of $46,000. The widespread use and potential for significant expenditure of limited resources would suggest that more study is required into the efficacy, safety and value of these products.

The use of natural health products (NHP) by Ontario seniors

A random dialing telephone survey in 4 Ontario communities obtained data on the use of natural health products (NHP) from 1,071 persons 60 years and older. 553 (52%) respondents were users of NHP. Prevalence of use was similar for females (53%) and males (48%). In this population modal users were of European descent, high school graduates and employed at least part-time. Half the users received recommendations about NHP from friends or relatives; another 22% learned about NHP through self-experimentation. Most users (81 %) decided by themselves whether they would buy an NHP rather than rely on input from another source (herbalist, physician, store owner/employee). 38% of NHP users had not informed their physician that they were using an NHP. When users had discussed NHP with their physician, less than 5% of physicians responded negatively. Some users felt natural health products were safer (15%) and less expensive (4%) than prescription drugs. 30% used NHP as a last resort for the treatment of a chronic disease. Nearly half (49%) of the users believed that if the government pays for prescription drugs, it should also pay for herbal remedies; 36% said the consumer should pay. In light of the extensive use of NHP by seniors, there is a need for clinical pharmacology studies of these products.

Depression associates with Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA), Vitamin B12 and Folate status::Findings from Belfast Elderly Longitudinal Free-Living Ageing STudy (BELFAST)

Introduction: An association between depression and folate has been found in clinical studies. Depression and dementia can contribute to nutritional deficiency. This study clinical depression in in octo/nonagenarians from the BELFAST study.
Method: In the BELFAST study, 38 free-living octo/nonagenarians (mean age 82 years), who apparently well and cognitively intact were followed up at 5 years and assessed using the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), Folstein (30 point), Mini Nutritional Assessment Tool (MNA) together with serum folate and vitamin B12 levels.
Results: Mean GDS was 3.4 (SD 2.5), serum folate 7.1 umol/l (SD 5.3) and B12 553 umol/l (458). With mean MNA and Folstein -25.8 (SD 2.7) and 27.6 (SD 2.7) respectively with no sex difference (p = 0.78; p = 0.36). 25% of subjects showed a GDS >5 indicating risk of mild depression and 21% had compromised nutritional status. MNA associated with GDS in male (r2 = 0.56 p = 0.01), but not in female elderly subjects (r2 = 0.01; p = 0.44). GDS score and lower serum folate were associated (r2 = -0.23; p = 0.01).
Conclusion: Overall there was the suggestion that nutritional status and depression might be linked in male subjects at 5 year follow-up in octo/nonagenarians from the BEFLAST study. The lower folate in subjects categorised at risk of mild depression might suggest vitamin supplementation could be useful.

A long-term follow-up of cognitive, emotional, and behavioural sequelae to Reye syndrome

Eighteen adolescents who had survived Reye syndrome (RS) in early childhood were assessed on cognitive, emotional, and behavioural variables in a second follow-up study tracking this group. Siblings were used as controls. The entire group with RS had survived with no obvious neurological damage at the first follow-up study. Indeed, current findings suggested that long-term cognitive, emotional, and behavioural functioning was comparable to siblings in approximately half of the group with RS. However, two factors were associated with a less favourable outcome. Cognitive, emotional, and behavioural functioning were significantly poorer in the subgroup of survivors whose illness had occurred in the first year of life. In addition, loss of consciousness, although the association with poor outcome was not as noticeable, was also associated with relative deficits on some scales of cognitive ability. Many of these deficits had not been obvious at the first follow-up and the importance of neurodevelopmental factors are considered. Finally, the implications of these findings for research and interventions in RS and other such encephalopathies are discussed.

The accuracy of accredited glaucoma optometrists in the diagnosis and treatment recommendation for glaucoma

Aim: To compare the diagnostic performance of accredited glaucoma optometrists (AGO) for both the diagnosis of glaucoma and the decision to treat with that of routine hospital eye care, against a reference standard of expert opinion (a consultant ophthalmologist with a special interest in glaucoma). Methods: A directly comparative, masked, performance study was undertaken in Grampian, Scotland. Of 165 people invited to participate, 100 (61%) were examined. People suspected of having glaucoma underwent, within one month, a full ophthalmic assessment in both a newly established community optometry led glaucoma management scheme and a consultant led hospital eye service. Results: Agreement between the AGO and the consultant ophthalmologist in diagnosing glaucoma was substantial (89%; ? = 0.703, SE = 0.083). Agreement over the need for treatment was also substantial (88%; ? = 0.716, SE = 0.076). The agreement between the trainee ophthalmologists and the consultant ophthalmologist in the diagnosis of glaucoma and treatment recommendation was moderate (83%, ? = 0.541, SE = 0.098, SE = 0.98; and 81%, ? = 0.553, SE = 0.90, respectively). The diagnostic accuracy of the optometrists in detecting glaucoma in this population was high for specificity (0.93 (95% confidence interval, 0.85 to 0.97)) but lower for sensitivity (0.76 (0.57 to 0.89)). Performance was similar when accuracy was assessed for treatment recommendation (sensitivity 0.73 (0.57 to 0.85); specificity 0.96 (0.88 to 0.99)). The differences in sensitivity and specificity between AGO and junior ophthalmologist were not statistically significant. Conclusions: Community optometrists trained in glaucoma provided satisfactory decisions regarding diagnosis and initiation of treatment for glaucoma. With such additional training in glaucoma, optometrists are at least as accurate as junior ophthalmologists but some cases of glaucoma are missed.

Fault Diagnostics for Internal Combustion Engines – Current and Future Techniques

The adoption of each new level of automotive emissions legislation often requires the introduction of additional emissions reduction techniques or the development of existing emissions control systems. This, in turn, usually requires the implementation of new sensors and hardware which must subsequently be monitored by the on-board fault detection systems. The reliable detection and diagnosis of faults in these systems or sensors, which result in the tailpipe emissions rising above the progressively lower failure thresholds, provides enormous challenges for OBD engineers. This paper gives a review of the field of fault detection and diagnostics as used in the automotive industry. Previous work is discussed and particular emphasis is placed on the various strategies and techniques employed. Methodologies such as state estimation, parity equations and parameter estimation are explained with their application within a physical model diagnostic structure. The utilization of symptoms and residuals in the diagnostic process is also discussed. These traditional physical model based diagnostics are investigated in terms of their limitations. The requirements from the OBD legislation are also addressed. Additionally, novel diagnostic techniques, such as principal component analysis (PCA) are also presented as a potential method of achieving the monitoring requirements of current and future OBD legislation.

An application of bi-directional evolutionary structural optimisation for optimising energy absorbing structures using a material damage model

The Bi-directional Evolutionary Structural Optimisation (BESO) method is a numerical topology optimisation method developed for use in finite element analysis. This paper presents a particular application of the BESO method to optimise the energy absorbing capability of metallic structures. The optimisation objective is to evolve a structural geometry of minimum mass while ensuring that the kinetic energy of an impacting projectile is reduced to a level which prevents perforation. Individual elements in a finite element mesh are deleted when a prescribed damage criterion is exceeded. An energy absorbing structure subjected to projectile impact will fail once the level of damage results in a critical perforation size. It is therefore necessary to constrain an optimisation algorithm from producing such candidate solutions. An algorithm to detect perforation was implemented within a BESO framework which incorporated a ductile material damage model.

Implementation of a non-orthogonal model for the finite element simulation of textile composite draping

In the pursuit of producing high quality, low-cost composite aircraft structures, out-of-autoclave manufacturing processes for textile reinforcements are being simulated with increasing accuracy. This paper focuses on the continuum-based, finite element modelling of textile composites as they deform during the draping process. A non-orthogonal constitutive model tracks yarn orientations within a material subroutine developed for Abaqus/Explicit, resulting in the realistic determination of fabric shearing and material draw-in. Supplementary material characterisation was experimentally performed in order to define the tensile and non-linear shear behaviour accurately. The validity of the finite element model has been studied through comparison with similar research in the field and the experimental lay-up of carbon fibre textile reinforcement over a tool with double curvature geometry, showing good agreement.

IDS: A Divide-and-Conquer Algorithm for Inference in Polytree-Shaped Credal Networks

A credal network is a graph-theoretic model that represents imprecision in joint probability distributions. An inference in a credal net aims at computing an interval for the probability of an event of interest. Algorithms for inference in credal networks can be divided into exact and approximate. The selection of an algorithm is based on a trade off that ponders how much time someone wants to spend in a particular calculation against the quality of the computed values. This paper presents an algorithm, called IDS, that combines exact and approximate methods for computing inferences in polytree-shaped credal networks. The algorithm provides an approach to trade time and precision when making inferences in credal nets

The photocatalytic decomposition of microcystin-LR using selected titanium dioxide materials

Microcystins (cyclic heptapeptides) produced by a number of freshwater cyanobacteria are a potential cause for concern in potable water supplies due to their acute and chronic toxicity. TiO₂ photocatalysis is a promising technology for removal of these toxins from drinking water. It is, however, necessary to have a sufficient knowledge of how the catalyst materials cause the degradation of the toxins through the photocatalytic process. The present study reports microcystin degradation products of the photocatalytic oxidation by using a number of commercial TiO₂ powder (P25, PC50, PC500 and UV100) and granular (KO1, KO3, TiCat-C, TiCat-S) materials, so aiding the mechanistic understanding of this process. Liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry analysis demonstrated that the major destruction pathway of microcystin for all the catalysts tested followed almost the same pathway, indicating the physical properties of the catalysts had little effects on the degradation pathway of microcystin-LR. 

Application of Evidence Theory and Discounting Techniques to Aerospace Design

Critical decisions are made by decision-makers throughout
the life-cycle of large-scale projects. These decisions are crucial as they
have a direct impact upon the outcome and the success of projects. To aid
decision-makers in the decision making process we present an evidential
reasoning framework. This approach utilizes the Dezert-Smarandache
theory to fuse heterogeneous evidence sources that suffer from levels
of uncertainty, imprecision and conflicts to provide beliefs for decision
options. To analyze the impact of source reliability and priority upon
the decision making process, a reliability discounting technique and a
priority discounting technique, are applied. A maximal consistent subset
is constructed to aid in dening where discounting should be applied.
Application of the evidential reasoning framework is illustrated using a
case study based in the Aerospace domain.