64 resultados para 340401 Economic Models and Forecasting


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Here we present a novel experimental approach to examine the relationship between diversity and ecosystem Function. We develop four null predictive models, with which to differentiate between the 'sampling effect' - the chance inclusion of a highly productive species, and 'species complementarity' - the complementary use of resources by species that differ in their niche or resource use. We investigate the effects of manipulating species and functional richness on ecosystem function in marine benthic system and using empirical data from our own experiments we illustrate the application of these models.

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In this article, we take advantage of the recent availability of data from the special module on material deprivation in the 2009 European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions to develop a more comprehensive understanding of the relationship between material deprivation and economic stress, the mediating and moderating roles played by cross-national differences in levels of income and income inequality, and the implications for competing perspectives on the nature of reference groups in Europe. The article establishes the critical role of basic deprivation, relating to inability to enjoy customary standards of living, in influencing economic stress levels. National income levels and inequality had no direct influence on economic stress. However, the impact of basic deprivation was stronger in countries with higher levels of income, indicating the crucial role of national reference groups. An interaction between basic deprivation and income inequality was also observed. However, contrary to the expectation that experiencing basic deprivation in a national context of high income inequality is likely to be particularly stressful, the consequences of such deprivation were most negative in low inequality countries. Experiencing basic deprivation where high income levels and lower inequality would lead to the expectation that such deprivation is eminently avoidable exacerbates its impact. © The Author 2013.

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In this article, using Ireland where debt issues are of particular salience, as a test case, we seek to locate over-indebtedness and the severity of debt problems in the context of the broader economic circumstances of households. In doing so, we first identify an economically vulnerable segment of households and then explore the debt experience of vulnerable and non-vulnerable households. Our analysis reveals a striking contrast between the debt experiences of less than one in five households defined as economically vulnerable and all others. Financial exclusion, relating to access to a bank account and a credit card, was found to increase debt levels. However, such effects were modest. The impact of economic vulnerability seems to be largely a consequence of its relationship to a wide
range of socio-economic attributes and circumstances. The manner in which a potential debt crisis
unfolds will be shaped by the broader socio-economic structuring of life-chances. Any attempt to
respond to such problems by concentrating on financial exclusion or household behaviour or, indeed,
triggering factors without taking the wider social structuring of economic vulnerability is likely to be
both seriously misguided and largely ineffective.

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In this paper we examine the consequences for social mobility of the recent unprecedented period of economic growth experienced in Ireland and the implications of such developments for current theories of social fluidity. Contrary to suggestions that the "Celtic Tiger" experience has been associated with deepening problem marginalization, we found evidence for a substantial upgrading of the class structure, increased levels of social mobility and increased social fluidity in relation to long-range hierarchical mobility. Such increased openness could not be explained by changes in the mediating role of education. The pattern of change suggests that both the upgrading of the class structure and the recent unprecedented tightness of the labour market have led employers to increasingly apply criteria other than education in a manner that has facilitated increased social fluidity. The Irish case provides further support for the argument for reconsidering the balance that mobility research has struck between social fluidity and absolute mobility and encouraging increased attention to the evolution of firms and jobs. It also suggests that, in circumstances where policies in advanced industrial societies have shown an increasing tendency to diverge, increased social fluidity may come about as a consequence of very different economic and social policies. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This study examined the relationship between children's hair cortisol and socioeconomic status of the family, as measured by parental education and income. Low family socioeconomic status has traditionally been considered a long-term environmental stressor. Measurement of hair cortisol provides an integrated index of cumulative stress exposure across an extended period of time. The present study is the first to examine the relationship between hair cortisol and parental education as well as parental income in a representative sample of preschoolers. Data on hair cortisol, family income, and parental education were collected for a representative sample of 339 children (Mean age=4.6 years; SD=.5 years) from across 23 neighbourhoods of the city of Vancouver, Canada. As maternal education was shown previously to be associated with hair zinc level, hair zinc measurements were included as well in order to explore potential relationships between hair zinc and hair cortisol. The relationship between hair cortisol and parental education was examined using hierarchical regression, with hair zinc, gender, age, and single parenthood included as covariates. Maternal and paternal education both were correlated significantly with hair cortisol (r=-0.18; p=.001). The relationship remained statistically significant even after controlling for all demographic covariates as well as for hair zinc and after taking the neighbourhood-level clustering of the data into account. Parental income, on the other hand, was not related significantly to children's hair cortisol. This study provides evidence that lower maternal and paternal education are associated with higher hair cortisol levels. As hair cortisol provides an integrated index of cortisol exposure over an extended time period, these findings suggest a possibly stable influence of SES on the function of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis. Cumulative exposure to cortisol during early childhood may be greater in children from low socio-economic backgrounds, possibly through increased exposure to environmental stressors.

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Aim: To evaluate the influence of socio-economic factors on visual acuity (VA) at presentation in exudative age- related macular degeneration (AMD). Methods: The medical records of all consecutive patients with newly diagnosed exudative AMD examined at the Ophthalmology Departments of Grampian University Hospitals-NHS Trust, Aberdeen, and Gartnavel General Hospital, Glasgow, between July 2004 and June 2005, were reviewed. Demographics, duration of symptoms, VA in study and fellow eye, exudative AMD characteristics, status of fellow eye and patient home address, used to determine the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) score, were recorded. The effect of these parameters on VA at presentation was investigated using general linear modelling. Results: Two-hundred and forty patients (median age 79 years) were included in this study; 44 (18.3%) belonged to the lowest 20% SIMD score (most deprived). Age and location and type of the choroidal neovascular- isation were statistically significantly associated with VA at presentation (p = 0.003, p

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