Combining global climate and regional landscape models to improve prediction of invasion risk

Aim
It is widely acknowledged that species distributions result from a variety of biotic and abiotic factors operating at different spatial scales. Here, we aimed to (1) determine the extent to which global climate niche models (CNMs) can be improved by the addition of fine-scale regional data; (2) examine climatic and environmental factors influencing the range of 15 invasive aquatic plant species; and (3) provide a case study for the use of such models in invasion management on an island.

Location
Global, with a case study of species invasions in Ireland.

Methods
Climate niche models of global extent (including climate only) and regional environmental niche models (with additional factors such as human influence, land use and soil characteristics) were generated using maxent for 15 invasive aquatic plants. The performance of these models within the invaded range of the study species in Ireland was assessed, and potential hotspots of invasion suitability were determined. Models were projected forward up to 2080 based on two climate scenarios.

Results
While climate variables are important in defining the global range of species, factors related to land use and nutrient level were of greater importance in regional projections. Global climatic models were significantly improved at the island scale by the addition of fine-scale environmental variables (area under the curve values increased by 0.18 and true skill statistic values by 0.36), and projected ranges decreased from an average of 86% to 36% of the island.

Main conclusions
Refining CNMs with regional data on land use, human influence and landscape may have a substantial impact on predictive capacity, providing greater value for prioritization of conservation management at subregional or local scales.

Biogeography, macroecology and species’ traits mediate competitive interactions in the order Lagomorpha

1. In addition to abiotic determinants, biotic factors, including competitive, interspecific interactions, limit species’ distributions. Environmental changes in human disturbance, land use and climate are predicted to have widespread impacts on interactions between species, especially in the order Lagomorpha due to the higher latitudes and more extreme environmental conditions they occupy.
2. We reviewed the published literature on interspecific interactions in the order Lagomorpha, and compared the biogeography, macroecology, phylogeny and traits of species known to interact with those of species with no reported interactions, to investigate how projected future environmental change may affect interactions and potentially alter species’ distributions.
3. Thirty-three lagomorph species have competitive interactions reported in the literature; the majority involve hares (Lepus sp.) or the eastern cottontail rabbit (Sylvilagus floridanus). Key regions for interactions are located between 30-50°N of the Equator, and include eastern Asia (southern Russia on the border of Mongolia) and North America (north western USA).
4. Closely related, large-bodied, similarly sized species occurring in regions of human-modified, typically agricultural landscapes, or at high elevations are significantly more likely to have reported competitive interactions than other lagomorph species.
5. We identify species’ traits associated with competitive interactions, and highlight some potential impacts that future environmental change may have on interspecific interactions. Our approach using bibliometric and biological data is widely applicable, and with relatively straightforward methodologies, can provide insights into interactions between species.
6. Our results have implications for predicting species’ responses to global change, and we advise that capturing, parameterizing and incorporating interspecific interactions into analyses (for example, species distribution modelling) may be more important than suggested by the literature.

Land use history of Village Bay, Hirta, St Kilda World Heritage Site:A palynological investigation of plaggen soils

This paper presents findings based on a palynological investigation of artificially accreting (plaggen) soils from the settlement of Village Bay, Hirta, in the St Kilda archipelago, which was perhaps the most distant and inhospitable outpost of sustained human habitation in the British Isles. The soils were developed principally through the addition of turf ash and seabird waste, although some ash may have been derived from upland peats. It is assumed that the woodland pollen signal (much lower in the soils than in an upland peat site nearby) represents off-island sources. Corylus avellana-type pollen (frequent in upland sites), along with Potentilla-type, may provide markers in the Village Bay profiles for the addition of ashed hillside turf, and possibly peat, to the plaggen soils. Cereal-type pollen is well represented through the profiles and is often strongly associated with the record for Chrysanthemum segetum (corn marigold), a frequent indicator of arable land. The Brassicaceae signal may partly reflect the cultivation of cabbages; Chelidonium majus (greater celandine) may have been grown for medicinal use. Soil mixing has rendered radiocarbon dating meaningless at this site, but the establishment of a change in cultivation regime before AD 1830 may have been identified from the patterns of pollen concentration and preservation in the profiles. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Energy and environmental forensic analysis for public buildings.

This paper outlines a forensic method for analysing the energy, environmental and comfort performance of a building. The method has been applied to a recently developed event space in an Irish public building, which was evaluated using on-site field studies, data analysis, building simulation and occupant surveying. The method allows for consideration of both the technological and anthropological aspects of the building in use and for the identification of unsustainable operational practice and emerging problems. The forensic analysis identified energy savings of up to 50%, enabling a more sustainable, lower-energy operational future for the building. The building forensic analysis method presented in this paper is now planned for use in other public and commercial buildings.

Using microbiological tracers to assess the impact of winter land use restrictions on the quality of stream headwaters in a small catchment.

Diverse land use activities can elevate risk of microbiological contamination entering stream headwaters. Spatially distributed water quality monitoring carried out across a 17km(2) agricultural catchment aimed to characterize microbiological contamination reaching surface water and investigate whether winter agricultural land use restrictions proved effective in addressing water quality degradation. Combined flow and concentration data revealed no significant difference in fecal indicator organism (FIO) fluxes in base flow samples collected during the open and prohibited periods for spreading organic fertilizer, while relative concentrations of Escherichia coli, fecal streptococci and sulfite reducing bacteria indicated consistently fresh fecal pollution reached aquatic receptors during both periods. Microbial source tracking, employing Bacteroides 16S rRNA gene markers, demonstrated a dominance of bovine fecal waste in river water samples upstream of a wastewater treatment plant discharge during open periods. This contrasted with responses during prohibited periods where human-derived signatures dominated. Differences in microbiological signature, when viewed with hydrological data, suggested that increasing groundwater levels restricted vertical infiltration of effluent from on-site wastewater treatment systems and diverted it to drains and surface water. Study results reflect seasonality of contaminant inputs, while suggesting winter land use restrictions can be effective in limiting impacts of agricultural wastes to base flow water quality.

Contribution of genetic and environmental effects on lens thickness: the Guangzhou Twin Eye study.

PURPOSE:

This study investigated the heritability of lens thickness (LT) and relative lens thickness (LT/axial length, rLT) measured by Lenstar among Chinese children and adolescents in the Guangzhou Twin Eye study.

METHODS:

Twins aged 8 to 22 years were enrolled from the Guangzhou Twin Registry. A series of LT and axial length (AL) measurements using the Lenstar were taken for each twin. Zygosity was confirmed by genotyping in all same-sex twin pairs. Heritability was assessed by structural variance component genetic modeling, after adjustment for age and sex with the Mx program.

RESULTS:

Seven hundred sixty-eight twin pairs (482 monozygotic [MZ] and 286 dizygotic [DZ] twins) were available for data analysis. The mean (standard deviation) LT and rLT were 3.45 (0.18) mm and 0.142 (0.01), respectively. The intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) for LT were 0.90 for the MZ and 0.39 for the DZ twins; and those for rLT were 0.90 for the MZ and 0.40 for the DZ twins, respectively. The best-fitting model yielded 89.5% (95% CI: 87.8%-91.0%) of additive genetic effects and 10.5% (95% CI: 9.0%-12.2%) of unique environmental effects for LT, and 89.3% (95% CI: 89.2%-89.3%) of additive genetic effects and 10.7% (95% CI: 10.7%-11.4%) of unique environmental effects for rLT.

CONCLUSIONS:

This study confirms that the LT in young healthy subjects may be mainly affected by additive genetic factors. High heritability remains even when the data are corrected for the influence of AL with the use of rLT.