Mortality in Barrett's oesophagus:Results from a population based study

Background: Patients with Barrett's oesophagus have an increased risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma but this cancer only accounts for a small proportion of deaths in these patients. Other causes of death are reportedly raised in this group. We examined cause specific mortality among individuals in a population based Barrett's oesophagus register. Methods: We constructed a register of all patients diagnosed with columnar mucosa (including specialised intestinal metaplasia) of the oesophagus within Northern Ireland between 1993 and 1999. Deaths occurring within this cohort until 31 December 2000 were identified and mortality rates were compared with the general population. Results: Overall mortality was not raised in Barrett's patients. During 7413 person years of follow up in 2373 patients there were 253 deaths (standardised mortality ratio (SMR) 96 (95% confidence interval (CI) 84-107)). Mortality from oesophageal cancer was raised in patients with specialised intestinal metaplasia (SMR 774 (95% CI 317-1231 )) but only 4.7% of patients died from this cancer. Mortality from stroke (SMR 65 (95% CI 37-93)) was significantly lower than the general population while mortality from non-cancerous digestive system diseases was significantly higher (SMR 211 (95% CI 111-311)). Mortality rates from all other causes were similar to those of the general population. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that the overall mortality rate in patients with Barrett's oesophagus is closely similar to that of the general population. Oesophageal cancer mortality was raised but is an uncommon cause of death in these patients who also appear to have a reduced risk of death from stroke.

Improving the educational achievement of young people in out-of-home care

A strong link between research and practice is essential to ensure
that the best available evidence gets into the hands of child welfare
practitioners, who are faced with the daunting task of making decisions
about vulnerable children on a daily basis. In 2007, a group of
senior child welfare leaders in the province of Ontario (Canada) created
a research dissemination model that replicated the worldrenowned
UK program, Research in Practice (http://www.rip.org.
uk). Practice and Research Together (PART; www.partontario.org) is
an Ontario consortium of 45 child welfare organizations whose mandate
is to disseminate research to its member agencies, which include
85% of the local child welfare organizations in the province. Each
member pays an annual membership-fee that is based on its size
(Dill & Shera, 2011). A key factor in PART's success has been its ability
to link its program offerings (i.e., webinars, literature reviews, conferences,
and publications) to issues of real-world relevance to child
welfare practitioners and senior leaders. A central and highly anticipated
program offering is PART's annual conference (learning
event). These conferences bring evidence to bear on practice in priority
areas in child welfare.
On May 31 and June 1 and 2, 2011, PART, in collaboration with the
Centre for Research on Educational and Community Services (CRECS)
at the University of Ottawa, co-hosted an international conference in
Ottawa that was focused on improving the educational achievement
of young people in out-of-home care (hereafter, in care). Speakers
from five countries – Canada, USA, Germany, Sweden, and UK – presented
the results of their research at the conference. The speakers
addressed three main topic areas: the disadvantaged socio-political
status of young people in care, many of whom do not complete secondary
or post-secondary education; innovative interventions to improve
their educational outcomes; and the effectiveness of tutoring,
which is the most common educational intervention for young people
in care.

The Baltic Dry Index: cyclicalities, forecasting and hedging strategies

The cyclical properties of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and their implications for forecasting performance are investigated. We find that changes in the BDI can lead to permanent shocks to trade of major exporting economies. In our forecasting exercise, we show that commodities and trigonometric regression can lead to improved predictions and then use our forecasting results to perform an investment exercise and to show how they can be used for improved risk management in the freight sector.