Causal conjunction fallacies: The roles of causal strength and mental resources

In two experiments we tested the prediction derived from Tversky and Kahneman's (1983) work on the causal conjunction fallacy that the strength of the causal connection between constituent events directly affects the magnitude of the causal conjunction fallacy. We also explored whether any effects of perceived causal strength were due to graded output from heuristic Type 1 reasoning processes or the result of analytic Type 2 reasoning processes. As predicted, Experiment 1 demonstrated that fallacy rates were higher for strongly than for weakly related conjunctions. Weakly related conjunctions in turn attracted higher rates of fallacious responding than did unrelated conjunctions. Experiment 2 showed that a concurrent memory load increased rates of fallacious responding for strongly related but not for weakly related conjunctions. We interpret these results as showing that manipulations of the strength of the perceived causal relationship between the conjuncts result in graded output from heuristic reasoning process and that additional mental resources are required to suppress strong heuristic output.

Accumulation of knowledge and accumulation of capital in early ‘theories’ of growth and development

This paper argues that prior to Adam Smith economic progress was largely conceived as being based on the accumulation of knowledge. The development by Turgot and Smith of a concept of capital that subsumed other factors contributing to development led their followers to focus on capital to the neglect of the independent role of knowledge. The paper demonstrates that this paradigmatic shift was identified and challenged by Bentham, Hodgskin and Rae who argued for the independent role of innovation but without lasting impact. © The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Cambridge Political Economy Society. All rights reserved.

‘A planet of confusion and debate’: children's and young people's response to the news coverage of Pluto's loss of planetary status

Despite calls that the school science curriculum should develop among students an ability to understand and respond critically to science-related media reports, very little research has been directed toward an important matter relevant to that aim, namely, how children and young people, untutored, react to science in the news. This study sought, in the context of media coverage of the debate surrounding the planetary status of Pluto, to explore this issue. A questionnaire, completed by 350 students aged between eight and 18, showed just over half of the children and young people were able to write relevantly about the subject though it was the gist not the detail of the story they recounted. There was evidence, nonetheless, that this media-acquired information functioned as active rather than passive knowledge. Students demonstrated relatively few misconceptions and those presented were predominately pre-existing rather than media-derived. As with the wider public, many of the children and young people held strong opinions on Pluto's loss of planethood. Such responses diminished with age, however, with older students expressing a degree of indifference. The paper concludes with a discussion of some implications of the research findings for science instruction.

Providing Legal Information and Advice to Older People: as much a question of accessibility as affordability

No continent has as high a proportion of older people as Europe. In this paper, we report the findings of an empirical project examining the legal advice needs of older people. An important element of the project also sought information about the capacity of the internet for meeting the legal advice needs of older people. Overall our findings broadly indicate considerable failings in legal information provision for older people from more traditional advice sources. Whilst we have uncovered some examples of individualised good practice, our research in the main revealed an alarming sense of fear, mistrust, uncertainty and ambivalence among older people towards accessing legal advice. The research was funded by the Changing Ageing Partnership (CAP). We believe our findings have broad implications and applicability across Europe.

Research intensity and knowledge transfer activity in UK universities

As the innovation process has become more open and networked, Government policy in the UK has sought to promote both research excellence in the university sector and the translation of this into economic benefit through university–business engagement. However, this policy approach has tended to be applied uniformly with little account for organisational differences within the sector. In this paper we consider if differences between universities in their research performance is reflected in their knowledge transfer activity. Specifically, as universities develop a commercialization agenda are the strategic priorities for knowledge transfer, the organisational supports in place to facilitate knowledge transfer and the scale and scope of knowledge transfer activity different for high research intensive (HRI) and low research intensive (LRI) universities? The findings demonstrate that universities’ approach to knowledge transfer is shaped by institutional and organisational resources, in particular their ethos and research quality, rather than the capability to undertake knowledge transfer through a Technology Transfer Office (TTO). Strategic priorities for knowledge transfer are reflected in activity, in terms of the dominance of specific knowledge transfer channels, the partners with which universities engage and the geography of business engagement.

How Porosity and Permeability Vary Spatially With Grain Size, Sorting, Cement Volume, and Mineral Dissolution In Fluvial Triassic Sandstones: The Value of Geostatistics and Local Regression

Although it is well known that sandstone porosity and permeability are controlled by a range of parameters such as grain size and sorting, amount, type, and location of diagenetic cements, extent and type of compaction, and the generation of intergranular and intragranular secondary porosity, it is less constrained how these controlling parameters link up in rock volumes (within and between beds) and how they spatially interact to determine porosity and permeability. To address these unknowns, this study examined Triassic fluvial sandstone outcrops from the UK using field logging, probe permeametry of 200 points, and sampling at 100 points on a gridded rock surface. These field observations were supplemented by laser particle-size analysis, thin-section point-count analysis of primary and diagenetic mineralogy, quantitiative XRD mineral analysis, and SEM/EDAX analysis of all 100 samples. These data were analyzed using global regression, variography, kriging, conditional simulation, and geographically weighted regression to examine the spatial relationships between porosity and permeability and their potential controls. The results of bivariate analysis (global regression) of the entire outcrop dataset indicate only a weak correlation between both permeability porosity and their diagenetic and depositional controls and provide very limited information on the role of primary textural structures such as grain size and sorting. Subdividing the dataset further by bedding unit revealed details of more local controls on porosity and permeability. An alternative geostatistical approach combined with a local modelling technique (geographically weighted regression; GWR) subsequently was used to examine the spatial variability of porosity and permeability and their controls. The use of GWR does not require prior knowledge of divisions between bedding units, but the results from GWR broadly concur with results of regression analysis by bedding unit and provide much greater clarity of how porosity and permeability and their controls vary laterally and vertically. The close relationship between depositional lithofacies in each bed, diagenesis, and permeability, porosity demonstrates that each influences the other, and in turn how understanding of reservoir properties is enhanced by integration of paleoenvironmental reconstruction, stratigraphy, mineralogy, and geostatistics.