Rural Migration, Agrarian Change and Institutional Dynamics: Perspectives from the Majority World

Overall, this special issue provides insights into the mutually constitutive ways in which rapid economic development associated with industrialisation drives institutional change, migration and mobility, and, finally, altered relationships between – and conceptions of – rural and urban. The following papers pose important conceptual, normative as well as practical, policy-relevant questions relating to the human consequences of these processes and point to the applications of population research – a central objective of this journal.

Possibilities for change? Diversity in Post-Conflict Belfast

Belfast is often presented as an exemplary divided or post-conflict city. However, this focus can be limiting and an exploration of alternative narratives for Belfast is needed. This paper investigates the diversification of post-conflict Belfast in light of the substantial migration which has occurred in the last decade, outlining the complexities of an emerging narrative of diversity. We note discrepancies in how racial equality is dealt with at an institutional level and report on the unevenness of migrant geographies, issues which require future consideration. We also raise questions that problematize the easy assumption that cultural diversity ameliorates existing sectarian divisions.

Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age

The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological 14C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change.

Positioning Clinical Nurse Specialists and Nurse Practitioners as Change Champions to Implement a Pain Protocol in Long-Term Care

Pain management for older adults in long-term care (LTC) has been recognized as a problem internationally. The purpose of this study was to explore the role of a clinical nurse specialist (CNS) and nurse practitioner (NP) as change champions during the implementation of an evidence-based pain protocol in LTC. In this exploratory, multiple-case design study, we collected data from two LTC homes in Ontario, Canada. Three data sources were used: participant observation of an NP and a CNS for 18 hours each over a 3-week period; CNS and NP diaries recording strategies, barriers, and facilitators to the implementation process; and interviews with members of the interdisciplinary team to explore perceptions about the NP and CNS role in implementing the pain protocol. Data were analyzed using thematic content analysis. The NP and CNS used a variety of effective strategies to promote pain management changes in practice including educational outreach with team members, reminders to nursing staff to highlight the pain protocol and educate about practice changes, chart audits and feedback to the nursing staff, interdisciplinary working group meetings, ad hoc meetings with nursing staff, and resident assessment using advanced skills. The CNS and NP are ideal champions to implement pain management protocols and likely other quality improvement initiatives.

Validity of the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ) in assessing levels and change in moderate-vigorous physical activity and sedentary behaviour

Background

Feasible, cost-effective instruments are required for the surveillance of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and sedentary behaviour (SB) and to assess the effects of interventions. However, the evidence base for the validity and reliability of the World Health Organisation-endorsed Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ) is limited. We aimed to assess the validity of the GPAQ, compared to accelerometer data in measuring and assessing change in MVPA and SB.

Participants (n = 101) were selected randomly from an on-going research study, stratified by level of physical activity (low, moderate or highly active, based on the GPAQ) and sex. Participants wore an accelerometer (Actigraph GT3X) for seven days and completed a GPAQ on Day 7. This protocol was repeated for a random sub-sample at a second time point, 3–6 months later. Analysis involved Wilcoxon-signed rank tests for differences in measures, Bland-Altman analysis for the agreement between measures for median MVPA and SB mins/day, and Spearman’s rho coefficient for criterion validity and extent of change.

95 participants completed baseline measurements (44 females, 51 males; mean age 44 years, (SD 14); measurements of change were calculated for 41 (21 females, 20 males; mean age 46 years, (SD 14). There was moderate agreement between GPAQ and accelerometer for MVPA mins/day (r = 0.48) and poor agreement for SB (r = 0.19). The absolute mean difference (self-report minus accelerometer) for MVPA was −0.8 mins/day and 348.7 mins/day for SB; and negative bias was found to exist, with those people who were more physically active over-reporting their level of MVPA: those who were more sedentary were less likely to under-report their level of SB. Results for agreement in change over time showed moderate correlation (r = 0.52, p = 0.12) for MVPA and poor correlation for SB (r = −0.024, p = 0.916).

Levels of agreement with objective measurements indicate the GPAQ is a valid measure of MVPA and change in MVPA but is a less valid measure of current levels and change in SB. Thus, GPAQ appears to be an appropriate measure for assessing the effectiveness of interventions to promote MVPA.

Tracking Change in Northern Ireland Policing: Temporal Phases and Key Themes

Purpose
– The purpose of this paper is to explore and explain the change process in Northern Ireland policing through an analysis of temporally bracketed change phases and key change delivery themes ranging from 1996 to 2012.

Design/methodology/approach
– The research approach adopted is process based, longitudinal and multi-method, utilising “temporal bracketing” to determine phases of change and conjunctural reasoning to unravel the systematic factors interacting over time, within the case.

Findings
– The paper identifies and temporally brackets four phases of change: “Tipping point”; “Implementation, Symbolic Modification and Resistance”; “Power Assisted Steering”; and “A Return to Turbulence”, identifies four themes that emerge from RUC-PSNI experience: the role of adaptive leadership; pace and sequencing of change implementation; sufficient resourcing; and the impact of external agents acting as boundary spanners, and comments on the prominence of these themes through the phases. The paper goes on to reflect upon how these phases and themes inform our understanding of organisational change within policing organisations generally and within politically pressurised transition processes.

Originality/value
– The contribution of the paper lies in the documentation of an almost unique organisational case in an environmentally forced change process. In this it contains lessons for other organisations facing similar, if less extreme challenges and presents an example of intense change analysed longitudinally.

Spectral gamma-ray logs and palaeoclimate change? Permian – Triassic, Persian Gulf

Spectral gamma ray (SGR) logs are used as stratigraphic tools in correlation, sequence stratigraphy and most recently, in clastic successions as a proxy for changes in hinterland palaeoweathering. In this study we analyse the spectral gamma ray signal recorded in two boreholes that penetrated the carbonate and evaporate-dominated Permian–Triassic boundary (PTB) in the South Pars Gasfield (offshore Iran, Persian Gulf) in an attempt to analyse palaeoenvironmental changes from the upper Permian (Upper Dalan Formation) and lower Triassic (Lower Kangan Formation). The results are compared to lithological changes, total organic carbon (TOC) contents and published stable isotope (δ18O, δ13C) results. This work is the first to consider palaeoclimatic effects on SGR logs from a carbonate/evaporate succession. While Th/U ratios compare well to isotope data (and thus a change to less arid hinterland climates from the Late Permian to the Early Triassic), Th/K ratios do not, suggesting a control not related to hinterland weathering. Furthermore, elevated Th/U ratios in the Early Triassic could reflect a global drawdown in U, rather than a more humid episode in the sediment hinterlands, with coincident changes in TOC. Previous work that used spectral gamma ray data in siliciclastic successions as a palaeoclimate proxy may not apply in carbonate/evaporate sedimentary rocks.

"Hidden" Social Networks in Behavior Change Interventions

We investigated whether “hidden” (or unobserved) social networks were evident in a 2011 physical activity behavior change intervention in Belfast, Northern Ireland. Results showed evidence of unobserved social networks in the intervention and illustrated how the network evolved over short periods and affected behavior. Behavior change interventions should account for the interaction among participants (i.e., social networks) and how such interactions affect intervention outcome.

Using postal questionnaires to evaluate physical activity and diet behaviour change: case study exploring implications of valid responder characteristics in interpreting intervention outcomes.

Background: Patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) are used to evaluate lifestyle interventions but littleis known about differences between patients returning valid and invalid responses, or of potential for bias inevaluations. We aimed to examine the characteristics of patients who returned valid responses to lifestylequestionnaires compared to those whose responses were invalid for evaluating lifestyle change. 
Methods: We conducted a secondary data analysis from the SPHERE Study, a trial of an intervention to improveoutcomes for patients with coronary heart disease in primary care. Postal questionnaires were used to assessphysical activity (Godin) and diet (DINE) among study participants at baseline and 18 month follow-up. Three binaryresponse variables were generated for analysis: (1) valid Godin score; (2) valid DINE Fibre score; and (3) validDINE Total Fat score. Multivariate analysis comprised generalised estimating equation regression to examine theassociation of patients’ characteristics with their return of valid responses at both timepoints. 
Results: Overall, 92.1% of participants (832/903) returned questionnaires at both baseline and 18 months. Relativelyfewer valid Godin scores were returned by those who left school aged <15 years (36.5%) than aged 18 and over(50.5%), manual workers (39.5%) than non-manual (49.5%) and those with an elevated cholesterol (>5 mmol)(34.7%) than those with a lower cholesterol (44.4%) but multivariate analysis identified that only school leaving age(p = 0.047) was of statistical significance.Relatively fewer valid DINE scores were returned by manual than non-manual workers (fibre: 80.8% v 86.8%;fat: 71.2% v 80.0%), smokers (fibre: 72.6% v 84.7%; fat: 67.5% v 76.9%), patients with diabetes (fibre: 75.9% v 82.9%;fat: 66.9% v 75.8%) and those with cholesterol >5 mmol (fat: 68.2% v 76.2%) but multivariate analysis showedstatistical significance only for smoking (fibre: p = 0.013; fat: p = 0.045), diabetes (fibre: p = 0.039; fat: p = 0.047), andcholesterol (fat: p = 0.039). 
Conclusions: Our findings illustrate the importance of detailed reporting of research methods, with clearinformation about response rates, respondents and valid outcome data. Outcome measures which are relevant to astudy population should be chosen carefully. The impact of methods of outcome measurement and valid responserates in evaluating healthcare requires further study.

Next-generation sequencing: a change of paradigm in molecular diagnostic validation

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) is beginning to show its full potential for diagnostic and therapeutic applications. In particular, it is enunciating its capacity to contribute to a molecular taxonomy of cancer, to be used as a standard approach for diagnostic mutation detection, and to open new treatment options that are not exclusively organ-specific. If this is the case, how much validation is necessary and what should be the validation strategy, when bringing NGS into the diagnostic/clinical practice? This validation strategy should address key issues such as: what is the overall extent of the validation? Should essential indicators of test performance such as sensitivity of specificity be calculated for every target or sample type? Should bioinformatic interpretation approaches be validated with the same rigour? What is a competitive clinical turnaround time for a NGS-based test, and when does it become a cost-effective testing proposition? While we address these and other related topics in this commentary, we also suggest that a single set of international guidelines for the validation and use of NGS technology in routine diagnostics may allow us all to make a much more effective use of resources.

Belfast's Traditional Music Scene: A Narrative of Change and Development

Today Belfast is home to a vibrant traditional music scene. There have never been more sessions, concerts, classes or lectures devoted to traditional music in the north's biggest city. A complex system of promoters, performers and listeners has emerged in a city that is growing in confidence as it moves away from the dark days of the Troubles. But how does this system function? While Dowling (2014) has examined the development of traditional music-making in Belfast as it shifted from a pre-conflict to conflict ridden environment, little research has been carried out into the reasons behind the boom in traditional music-making in a post-conflict setting.

This paper examines the impact upon the traditional music scene of the first wave of students to arrive in Belfast after the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. These musicians, such as Donal O'Connor, Ruadhrai O'Kane and Aidan Walsh have had a lasting impact upon the lives of musicians native to Belfast, helping to bring traditional music to new venues and audiences.

The work of Belfast-based music schools with varying remits, such as Belfast Trad., and the Andersonstown School of Traditional and Contemporary Music, is also examined for the purpose of illustrating how both adults and young people are being educated about their musical heritage.