A Bayesian method for detecting stellar flares

We present a Bayesian-odds-ratio-based algorithm for detecting stellar flares in light-curve data. We assume flares are described by a model in which there is a rapid rise with a half-Gaussian profile, followed by an exponential decay. Our signal model also contains a polynomial background model required to fit underlying light-curve variations in the data, which could otherwise partially mimic a flare. We characterize the false alarm probability and efficiency of this method under the assumption that any unmodelled noise in the data is Gaussian, and compare it with a simpler thresholding method based on that used in Walkowicz et al. We find our method has a significant increase in detection efficiency for low signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) flares. For a conservative false alarm probability our method can detect 95 per cent of flares with S/N less than 20, as compared to S/N of 25 for the simpler method. We also test how well the assumption of Gaussian noise holds by applying the method to a selection of 'quiet' Kepler stars. As an example we have applied our method to a selection of stars in Kepler Quarter 1 data. The method finds 687 flaring stars with a total of 1873 flares after vetos have been applied. For these flares we have made preliminary characterizations of their durations and and S/N.

The Well-Aligned Orbit of Wasp-84b: Evidence for Disk Migration of a Hot Jupiter

We report the sky-projected orbital obliquity (spin–orbit angle) of WASP-84 b, a 0.69MJup planet in an 8.52 day orbit around a G9V/K0V star, to be λ = −0.3 ± 1.7°. We obtain a true obliquity of ψ = 17.3 ± 7.7° from a measurement of the inclination of the stellar spin axis with respect to the sky plane. Due to the young age and the weak tidal forcing of the system, we suggest that the orbit of WASP-84b is unlikely to have both realigned and circularized from the misaligned and/or eccentric orbit likely to have arisen from high-eccentricity migration. Therefore we conclude that the planet probably migrated via interaction with the protoplanetary disk. This would make it the first “hot Jupiter” (P d < 10 ) to have been shown to have migrated via this pathway. Further, we argue that the distribution of obliquities for planets orbiting cool stars (Teff < 6250 K) suggests that high-eccentricity migration is an important pathway for the formation of short-orbit, giant planets.

Interacting supernovae and supernova impostors. SN 2007sv: the major eruption of a massive star in UGC 5979

We report the results of the photometric and spectroscopic monitoring campaign of the transient SN 2007sv. The observables are similar to those of Type IIn supernovae, a well-known class of objects whose ejecta interact with pre-existing circumstellar material (CSM). The spectra show a blue continuum at early phases and prominent Balmer lines in emission; however, the absolute magnitude at the discovery of SN 2007sv (M-R=-14.25 +/- 0.38) indicate it to be most likely a supernova impostor. This classification is also supported by the lack of evidence in the spectra of very high velocity material as expected in supernova ejecta. In addition, we find no unequivocal evidence of broad lines of alpha- and/or Fe-peak elements. The comparison with the absolute light curves of other interacting objects (including Type IIn supernovae) highlights the overall similarity with the prototypical impostor SN 1997bs. This supports our claim that SN 2007sv was not a genuine supernova, and was instead a supernova impostor, most likely similar to the major eruption of a luminous blue variable.

Possible binary progenitors for the Type Ib supernova iPTF13bvn

Cao et al. reported a possible progenitor detection for the Type Ib supernovae iPTF13bvn for the first time. We find that the progenitor is in fact brighter than the magnitudes previously reported by approximately 0.7-0.2 mag with a larger error in the bluer filters. We compare our new magnitudes to our large set of binary evolution models and find that many binary models with initial masses in the range of 10-20M(circle dot) match this new photometry and other constraints suggested from analysing the supernova. In addition, these lower mass stars retain more helium at the end of the model evolution indicating that they are likely to be observed as Type Ib supernovae rather than their more massive, Wolf-Rayet counter parts. We are able to rule out typical Wolf-Rayet models as the progenitor because their ejecta masses are too high and they do not fit the observed SED unless they have a massive companion which is the observed source at the supernova location. Therefore only late-time observations of the location will truly confirm if the progenitor was a helium giant and not a Wolf-Rayet star.

Absolute Magnitudes of Pan-STARRS PS1 Asteroids

Absolute magnitude (H) of an asteroid is a fundamental parameter describing the size and the apparent brightness of the body. Because of its surface shape, properties and changing illumination, the brightness changes with the geometry and is described by the phase function governed by the slope parameter (G). Although many years have been spent on detailed observations of individual asteroids to provide H and G, vast majority of minor planets have H based on assumed G and due to the input photometry from multiple sources the errors of these values are unknown. We compute H of ~ 180 000 and G of few thousands asteroids observed with the Pan-STARRS PS1 telescope in well defined photometric systems. The mean photometric error is 0.04 mag. Because on average there are only 7 detections per asteroid in our sample, we employed a Monte Carlo (MC) technique to generate clones simulating all possible rotation periods, amplitudes and colors of detected asteroids. Known asteroid colors were taken from the SDSS database. We used debiased spin and amplitude distributions dependent on size, spectral class distributions of asteroids dependent on semi-major axis and starting values of G from previous works. H and G (G12 respectively) were derived by phase functions by Bowell et al. (1989) and Muinonen et al. (2010). We confirmed that there is a positive systematic offset between H based on PS1 asteroids and Minor Planet Center database up to -0.3 mag peaking at 14. Similar offset was first mentioned in the analysis of SDSS asteroids and was believed to be solved by weighting and normalizing magnitudes by observatory codes. MC shows that there is only a negligible difference between Bowell's and Muinonen's solution of H. However, Muinonen's phase function provides smaller errors on H. We also derived G and G12 for thousands of asteroids. For known spectral classes, slope parameters agree with the previous work in general, however, the standard deviation of G in our sample is twice as larger, most likely due to sparse phase curve sampling. In the near future we plan to complete the H and G determination for all PS1 asteroids (500,000) and publish H and G values online. This work was supported by NASA grant No. NNX12AR65G.

Absolute Magnitudes of Pan-STARRS 1 Asteroids

It is well known that the absolute magnitudes (H) in the MPCORB and ASTORB orbital element catalogs suffer from a systematic offset. Juric at al. (2002) found 0.4 mag offset in the SDSS data and detailed light curve studies of WISE asteroids by Pravec et al. (2012) revealed size-dependent offsets of up to 0.5 mag. The offsets are thought to be caused by systematic errors introduced by earlier surveys using different photometric catalogs and filters. The next generation asteroid surveys provide an order of magnitude more asteroids and well-defined and calibrated magnitudes. The Pan-STARRS 1 telescope (PS1) has observed hundreds of thousands asteroids, submitted more than 2 million detections to the Minor Planet Center (MPC) and discovered almost 300 NEOs since the beginning of operations in late 2010. We transformed the observed apparent magnitudes of PS1-detected asteroids from the gP1,rP1,iP1,yP1,zP1 and wP1-bands into Johnson photometric system by assuming the mean S and C-type asteroid color (Fitzsimmons 2011 - personal communication, Schlafly et al. 2012, Magnier et al. 2012 - in preparation) and calculated the absolute magnitude (H) in the V-band and its uncertainty (Bowell et al., 1989) for more than 200,000 known asteroids having on average 6.7 detections per object. The H error with respect to the MPCORB catalog revealed a mean offset of -0.49+0.30 mag in good agreement with published values. We will also discuss the statistical and systematical errors in H and slope parameter G.

Optical Spectroscopy of Unbound Asteroid Pairs

The recently discovered unbound asteroid pairs have been suggested to be the result of the decoupling of binary asteroids formed either through collision processes or, more likely, rotational fission of a rubble-pile asteroid after spin-up (Vokrouhlicky et al. 2008, AJ 136, 280; Pravec et al., 2010, Nature, 466, 1085). Much of the evidence for linkage of the asteroids in each pair relies solely on the backwards integrations of their orbits. We report new results from our continuing spectroscopic survey of the unbound asteroid pairs, including the youngest known pair, (6070) Rhineland - (54827) 2001 NQ8. The survey goal is to determine whether the asteroids in each unbound pair have similar spectra and therefore composition, expected if they have formed from a common parent body. Low-resolution spectroscopy covering the range 0.4-0.95 microns was conducted using the 3.6m ESO NTT+EFOSC2 during 2011-2012 and the 4.2m WHT+ACAM. We have attempted to maintain a high level of consistency between the observations of the components in each pair to ensure that differences in the asteroid spectra are not the result of the observing method or data reduction, but purely caused by compositional differences. Our WHT data indicates that the asteroids of unbound pair 17198 - 229056 exhibit different spectra and have been assigned different taxonomies, A and R respectively. Initial analysis of our data from the NTT suggests that the asteroids in unbound pairs 6070 - 54827 and 38707 - 32957 are likely silicate-dominated asteroids. The components of pair 23998 - 205383 are potentially X-type asteroids. We present final taxonomic classifications and the likelihood of spectral similarity in each pair.

SN 2012ec: mass of the progenitor from PESSTO follow-up of the photospheric phase

We present the results of a photometric and spectroscopic monitoring campaign of SN 2012ec, which exploded in the spiral galaxy NGC 1084, during the photospheric phase. The photometric light curve exhibits a plateau with luminosity L = 0.9 x 10(42) erg s(-1) and duration similar to 90 d, which is somewhat shorter than standard Type II-P supernovae (SNe). We estimate the nickel mass M(Ni-56) = 0.040 +/- 0.015 M-circle dot from the luminosity at the beginning of the radioactive tail of the light curve. The explosion parameters of SN 2012ec were estimated from the comparison of the bolometric light curve and the observed temperature and velocity evolution of the ejecta with predictions from hydrodynamical models. We derived an envelope mass of 12.6 M-circle dot, an initial progenitor radius of 1.6 x 10(13) cm and an explosion energy of 1.2 foe. These estimates agree with an independent study of the progenitor star identified in pre-explosion images, for which an initial mass of M = 14-22 M-circle dot was determined. We have applied the same analysis to two other Type II-P SNe (SNe 2012aw and 2012A), and carried out a comparison with the properties of SN 2012ec derived in this paper. We find a reasonable agreement between the masses of the progenitors obtained from pre-explosion images and masses derived from hydrodynamical models. We estimate the distance to SN 2012ec with the standardized candle method (SCM) and compare it with other estimates based on other primary and secondary indicators. SNe 2012A, 2012aw and 2012ec all follow the standard relations for the SCM for the use of Type II-P SNe as distance indicators.

Supersolar Ni/Fe production in the Type IIP SN 2012ec

SN 2012ec is a Type IIP supernova (SN) with a progenitor detection and comprehensive photospheric phase observational coverage. Here, we present Very Large Telescope and Public ESO Spectroscopic Survey of Transient Objects observations of this SN in the nebular phase. We model the nebular [O I] lambda lambda 6300, 6364 lines and find their strength to suggest a progenitor main-sequence mass of 13-15 M-circle dot. SN2012ec is unique among hydrogen-rich SNe in showing a distinct line of stable nickel [Ni II] lambda 7378. This line is produced by Ni-58, a nuclear burning ash whose abundance is a sensitive tracer of explosive burning conditions. Using spectral synthesis modelling, we use the relative strengths of [Ni II] lambda 7378 and [Fe II] lambda 7155 (the progenitor of which is Ni-56) to derive a Ni/Fe production ratio of 0.20 +/- 0.07 (by mass), which is a factor 3.4 +/- 1.2 times the solar value. High production of stable nickel is confirmed by a strong [Ni II] 1.939 mu m line. This is the third reported case of a core-collapse SN producing a Ni/Fe ratio far above the solar value, which has implications for core-collapse explosion theory and galactic chemical evolution models.

The scattered trans-Neptunian object 1998 XY95

On 1998 December 12 a new trans-Neptunian object, 1998 XY95, was discovered as part of a deep search. Recent observations of this object have placed it amongst the class of objects known as the scattered trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs). A total of 39 CCD images of 1998 XY95 were taken over two nights, and these were used to search for a light curve, but no significant periodicity was found. An examination of the possible orbital evolution gives no indication of how it may have arrived on its present orbit. The current best-fitting orbit is unstable, but remains within a band of semi-major axis approximately 2au wide. The bottom of this band is due to 3:1 mean motion resonance with Neptune, while the reason for the top of the band remains unclear.

On the alignment of debris discs and their host stars' rotation axis - implications for spin-orbit misalignment in exoplanetary systems

It has been widely thought that measuring the misalignment angle between the orbital plane of a transiting exoplanet and the spin of its host star was a good discriminator between different migration processes for hot-Jupiters. Specifically, well-aligned hot-Jupiter systems (as measured by the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect) were thought to have formed via migration through interaction with a viscous disc, while misaligned systems were thought to have undergone a more violent dynamical history. These conclusions were based on the assumption that the planet-forming disc was well-aligned with the host star. Recent work by a number of authors has challenged this assumption by proposing mechanisms that act to drive the star-disc interaction out of alignment during the pre-main-sequence phase. We have estimated the stellar rotation axis of a sample of stars which host spatially resolved debris discs. Comparison of our derived stellar rotation axis inclination angles with the geometrically measured debris-disc inclinations shows no evidence for a misalignment between the two.

Turbulent Fluctuations in G-band and K-line Intensities Observed with the Rapid Oscillations in the Solar Atmosphere (ROSA) Instrument

Using the Rapid Oscillation in the Solar Atmosphere (ROSA) instrument at the Dunn Solar Telescope we have found that the spectra of fluctuations of the G-band (cadence 1.05 s) and Ca II K-line (cadence 4.2 s) intensities show correlated fluctuations above white noise out to frequencies beyond 300 mHz and up to 70 mHz, respectively. The noise-corrected G-band spectrum presents a scaling range (Ultra High Frequency “UHF”) for f = 25-100 mHz, with an exponent consistent with the presence of turbulent motions. The UHF power, is concentrated at the locations of magnetic bright points in the intergranular lanes, it is highly intermittent in time and characterized by a positive kurtosis κ. Combining values of G-band and K-line intensities, the UHF power, and κ, reveals two distinct “states” of the internetwork solar atmosphere. State 1, with κ ≍ 6, which includes almost all the data, is characterized by low intensities and low UHF power. State 2, with κ ≍ 3, including a very small fraction of the data, is characterized by high intensities and high UHF power. Superposed epoch analysis shows that for State 1, the K-line intensity presents 3.5 min chromospheric oscillations with maxima occurring 21 s after G-band intensity maxima implying a 150-210 km effective height difference. For State 2, the G-band and K-line intensity maxima are simultaneous, suggesting that in the highly magnetized environment sites of G-band and K-line emission may be spatially close together. Analysis of observations obtained with Hinode/SOT confirm a scaling range in the G-band spectrum up to 53 mHz also consistent with turbulent motions as well as the identification of two distinct states in terms of the H-line intensity and G-band power as functions of G-band intensity.

Rapid Oscillations in the Solar Atmosphere: Spectra and Physical Effects

High-frequency fluctuations are observed with the Rapid Oscillations in the Solar Atmosphere (ROSA) instrument (Jess et al. 2010, Solar Phys, 261, 363) at the Dunn Solar Telescope. This can produce simultaneous observations in up to six channels, at different heights in the photosphere and chromosphere, at an unprecedentedly high cadence of 0.5 seconds, and at a spatial resolution of 100 km after photometrically correct speckle reconstruction. Here we concentrate on observations at two levels. The first is in the G-band of the CH radical at 4305.5Å, bandpass 9.2Å, with height of formation z <250 km at a cadence of 0.525 sec corresponding to Nyquist frequency 950 mHz. The second is in the Ca II K-line core at 3933.7Å, bandpass 1.0Å, with height of formation z <1300 km, and cadence 4.2 sec giving Nyquist frequency 120 mHz. The data span 53 min, and the maximum field of view is 45 Mm. The data were taken on 28 May 2009 in internetwork and network near disk center. Using both Fourier and Morlet wavelet methods we find evidence in the G-band spectra for intensity fluctuations above noise out to frequencies f >> 100 mHz. The K-line signal is noisier and is seen only for f <50 mHz. With wavelet techniques we find that G-band spectral power with 20 <f <100 mHz is clearly concentrated in the intergranular lanes and especially at the locations of magnetic elements indicated by G-band bright points. This wavelet power is highly intermittent in time. By cross-correlating the data we find that pulses of high-frequency G-band power in the photosphere tend to be followed by increases in K-line emission in the chromosphere with a time lag of about 2 min.

ROSA: A High-cadence, Synchronized Multi-camera Solar Imaging System

The Rapid Oscillations in the Solar Atmosphere (ROSA) instrument is a synchronized, six-camera high-cadence solar imaging instrument developed by Queen's University Belfast and recently commissioned at the Dunn Solar Telescope at the National Solar Observatory in Sunspot, New Mexico, USA, as a common-user instrument. Consisting of six 1k x 1k Peltier-cooled frame-transfer CCD cameras with very low noise (0.02 - 15 e/pixel/s), each ROSA camera is capable of full-chip readout speeds in excess of 30 Hz, and up to 200 Hz when the CCD is windowed. ROSA will allow for multi-wavelength studies of the solar atmosphere at a high temporal resolution. We will present the current instrument set-up and parameters, observing modes, and future plans, including a new high QE camera allowing 15 Hz for Halpha. Interested parties should see https://habu.pst.qub.ac.uk/groups/arcresearch/wiki/de502/ROSA.html

Deriving meteorological variables across Africa for the study and control of vector-borne disease:a comparison of remote sensing and spatial interpolation of climate

This paper presents the results of an investigation into the utility of remote sensing (RS) using meteorological satellites sensors and spatial interpolation (SI) of data from meteorological stations, for the prediction of spatial variation in monthly climate across continental Africa in 1990. Information from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) polar-orbiting meteorological satellites was used to estimate land surface temperature (LST) and atmospheric moisture. Cold cloud duration (CCD) data derived from the High Resolution Radiometer (HRR) onboard the European Meteorological Satellite programme's (EUMETSAT) Meteosat satellite series were also used as a RS proxy measurement of rainfall. Temperature, atmospheric moisture and rainfall surfaces were independently derived from SI of measurements from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) member stations of Africa. These meteorological station data were then used to test the accuracy of each methodology, so that the appropriateness of the two techniques for epidemiological research could be compared. SI was a more accurate predictor of temperature, whereas RS provided a better surrogate for rainfall; both were equally accurate at predicting atmospheric moisture. The implications of these results for mapping short and long-term climate change and hence their potential for the study anti control of disease vectors are considered. Taking into account logistic and analytical problems, there were no clear conclusions regarding the optimality of either technique, but there was considerable potential for synergy.