Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era

Climate model projections suggestwidespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in the coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other “Old World” climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the “Old World Drought Atlas” (OWDA), a set of year-to-year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era.
The OWDA matches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over north-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries
reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas before the 20th century, with an inadequate understanding of their causes. The OWDA provides new data to determine the causes of Old World drought and wetness and attribute past climate variability to forced and/or internal variability.

A Changing UK in a Changing Europe: The UK State between European Union and Devolution

Two issues currently dominate the UK's constitutional landscape: the UK's membership of the European Union (EU) on the one hand; and the unsettled constitutional settlements between the UK and the devolved administrations of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland on the other. This article considers these two issues in concert. It stresses the distinct relationships between the EU and the devolved territories within the UK—concerning both devolved and non-devolved policy areas—highlighting the salience of a devolved perspective in any consideration of UK–EU relations. Despite its importance, sensitivity to this has been lacking. The article explores the implications of a ‘Leave’ or ‘Remain’ outcome on the future of the internal territorial dynamics within the UK. While there are too many unknowns to be certain of anything, that there will be knock-on effects is, however, beyond doubt.

Radiocarbon chronology for the Early Gravettian of northern Europe : new AMS determinations for Maisieres-Canal, Belgium

The authors explore the arrival of the earliest Gravettian in north-west Europe, using new high precision radiocarbon dates for bone excavated at Maisieres-Canal in Belgium to define a short-lit^ed occupation around 33 000 years ago. The tanged points in that assemblage have parallels in British sites, including Goat's Hole (Paviland). This is the site of the famous ochred burial of a young adult male, confiisingly known as the 'Red Lady', notv dated to around 34 000 BP. The new results demonstrate that this British 'rich burial' and the Gravettian with tanged points may bebng to two different occupation horizons separated by a cold spell.

The Monetary Value Of Meat Authenticity And Food Safety In Ready To Heat Lasagne: Implications Of The ‘Horse Meat Scandal’ Across Europe

The recent ‘horse meat scandal’ in Europe has sparked huge concerns among consumers, as horse meat was found in beef lasagne ready to be consumed. Within STARTEC, a European funded project, this study investigates consumers’ preferences, attitudes and willingness to pay (WTP) towards characteristics of ready to heat (RTH) fresh lasagne, including origin of the meat, tested for meat authenticity, safety of the lasagne, and nutritional value, using Discrete Choice Experiments in six countries - Republic of Ireland, France, Italy, Spain, Germany and Norway. Our representative sample of 4,598 European consumers makes this the largest cross country study of this kind. The questionnaire was administered online in January 2014. Results from models in WTP-space show that, on average, consumers are willing to pay considerable amount (about €4-9) for food authenticity; on this Irish and Italian are the least concerned while Spanish are the most concerned. As expected from discussing with stakeholders, food safety claims and nutritional value of the RTH lasagne are relatively less important. Consumers also value knowing the origin of ingredients preferring locally sourced meat. Primarily, the results of this study present strong evidence that consumers in Europe are highly concerned about authenticity of the meat in ready meals and strongly prefer to know that the meat is national. This evidence suggests that there is great value in providing information on these attributes, both from a consumer perspective and where this leads to an increased consumer confidence has benefits for the food industry.

Ophthalmic epidemiology in Europe: the “European Eye Epidemiology” (E3) consortium

The European Eye Epidemiology (E3) consortium is a recently formed consortium of 29 groups from 12 European countries. It already comprises 21 population-based studies and 20 other studies (case-control, cases only, randomized trials), providing ophthalmological data on approximately 170,000 European participants. The aim of the consortium is to promote and sustain collaboration and sharing of data and knowledge in the field of ophthalmic epidemiology in Europe, with particular focus on the harmonization of methods for future research, estimation and projection of frequency and impact of visual outcomes in European populations (including temporal trends and European subregions), identification of risk factors and pathways for eye diseases (lifestyle, vascular and metabolic factors, genetics, epigenetics and biomarkers) and development and validation of prediction models for eye diseases. Coordinating these existing data will allow a detailed study of the risk factors and consequences of eye diseases and visual impairment, including study of international geographical variation which is not possible in individual studies. It is expected that collaborative work on these existing data will provide additional knowledge, despite the fact that the risk factors and the methods for collecting them differ somewhat among the participating studies. Most studies also include biobanks of various biological samples, which will enable identification of biomarkers to detect and predict occurrence and progression of eye diseases. This article outlines the rationale of the consortium, its design and presents a summary of the methodology.

Of no fixed form: The Irish Pavilion at Venice 2014 and beyond

This paper explores the theme of exhibiting architectural research through a particular example, the development of the Irish pavilion for the 14th architectural biennale, Venice 2014. Responding to Rem Koolhaas’s call to investigate the international absorption of modernity, the Irish pavilion became a research project that engaged with the development of the architectures of infrastructure in Ireland in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Central to this proposition was that infrastructure is simultaneously a technological and cultural construct, one that for Ireland occupied a critical position in the building of a new, independent post-colonial nation state, after 1921.

Presupposing infrastructure as consisting of both visible and invisible networks, the idea of a matrix become a central conceptual and visual tool in the curatorial and design process for the exhibition and pavilion. To begin with this was a two-dimensional grid used to identify and order what became described as a series of ten ‘infrastructural episodes’. These were determined chronologically across the decades between 1914 and 2014 and their spatial manifestations articulated in terms of scale: micro, meso and macro. At this point ten academics were approached as researchers. Their purpose was twofold, to establish the broader narratives around which the infrastructures developed and to scrutinise relevant archives for compelling visual material. Defining the meso scale as that of the building, the media unearthed was further filtered and edited according to a range of categories – filmic/image, territory, building detail, and model – which sought to communicate the relationship between the pieces of architecture and the larger systems to which they connect. New drawings realised by the design team further iterated these relationships, filling in gaps in the narrative by providing composite, strategic or detailed drawings.

Conceived as an open-ended and extendable matrix, the pavilion was influenced by a series of academic writings, curatorial practices, artworks and other installations including: Frederick Kiesler’s City of Space (1925), Eduardo Persico and Marcello Nizzoli’s Medaglio d’Oro room (1934), Sol Le Witt’s Incomplete Open Cubes (1974) and Rosalind Krauss’s seminal text ‘Grids’ (1979). A modular frame whose structural bays would each hold and present an ‘episode’, the pavilion became both a visual analogue of the unseen networks embodying infrastructural systems and a reflection on the predominance of framed structures within the buildings exhibited. Sharing the aspiration of adaptability of many of these schemes, its white-painted timber components are connected by easily-dismantled steel fixings. These and its modularity allow the structure to be both taken down and re-erected subsequently in different iterations. The pavilion itself is, therefore, imagined as essentially provisional and – as with infrastructure – as having no fixed form. Presenting archives and other material over time, the transparent nature of the space allowed these to overlap visually conveying the nested nature of infrastructural production. Pursuing a means to evoke the qualities of infrastructural space while conveying a historical narrative, the exhibition’s termination in the present is designed to provoke in the visitor, a perceptual extension of the matrix to engage with the future.

Survival of patients with skin melanoma in Europe increases further: Results of the EUROCARE-5 study

Background In Europe skin melanoma (SM) survival has increased over time. The aims were to evaluate recent trends and differences between countries and regions of Europe.

Methods Relative survival (RS) estimates and geographical comparisons were based on 241,485 patients aged 15 years and over with a diagnosis of invasive SM in Europe (2000-2007). Survival time trends during 1999-2007 were estimated using the period approach, for 213,101 patients. Age, gender, sub-sites and morphology subgroups were considered. 

Results In European patients, estimated 5-year RS was 83% (95% confidence interval, CI 83-84%). The highest values were found for patients resident in Northern (88%; 87-88%) and Central (88%; 87-88%) Europe, followed by Ireland and United Kingdom (UK) (86%; 85-86%) and Southern Europe (83%; 82-83%). The lowest survival was in Eastern Europe (74%; 74-75%). Within regions the intercountry absolute difference in percentage points of RS varied from 4% (North) to 34% (East). RS decreased markedly with patients' age and was higher in women than men. Differences according to SM morphology and skin sub-sites also emerged. Survival has slightly increased from 1999 to 2007, with a small improvement in Northern and the most pronounced improvement in Eastern Europe. 

Discussion SM survival is high and still increasing in European patients. The gap between Northern and Southern and especially Eastern European countries, although still present, diminished over time. Differences in stage distribution at diagnosis may explain most of the geographical differences. However, part of the improvement in survival may be attributed to overdiagnosis from early diagnosis practices.

Think, code, succeed: The Programming Studio as a games-based collaboration:Paper published in the Proceedings of the Association for Teacher Education in Europe conference: Teacher Education through Partnerships and Collaborative Learning Communities, Glasgow, UK. ATEE, 2015

This paper investigates the profile of teachers in the island of Ireland who declared themselves willing to undertake professional development activities in programming, in particular to master programming by taking on-line courses involving the design of computer games. Using the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), it compares scores for teachers “willing” to undertake the courses with scores for those who declined, and examines other differences between the groups of respondents. Findings reflect the perceived difficulties of programming and the current low status accorded to the subject in Ireland. The paper also reviews the use of games-based learning as a “hook” to engage learners in programming and discusses the role of gamification as a tool for motivating learners in an on-line course. The on-line course focusing on games design was met with enthusiasm, and there was general consensus that gamification was appropriate for motivating learners in structured courses such as those provided.

Effect of major lifestyle risk factors, independent and jointly, on life expectancy with and without cardiovascular disease: results from the Consortium on Health and Ageing Network of Cohorts in Europe and the United States (CHANCES)

Seldom have studies taken account of changes in lifestyle habits in the elderly, or investigated their impact on disease-free life expectancy (LE) and LE with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Using data on subjects aged 50+ years from three European cohorts (RCPH, ESTHER and Tromsø), we used multi-state Markov models to calculate the independent and joint effects of smoking, physical activity, obesity and alcohol consumption on LE with and without CVD. Men and women aged 50 years who have a favourable lifestyle (overweight but not obese, light/moderate drinker, non-smoker and participates in vigorous physical activity) lived between 7.4 (in Tromsø men) and 15.7 (in ESTHER women) years longer than those with an unfavourable lifestyle (overweight but not obese, light/moderate drinker, smoker and does not participate in physical activity). The greater part of the extra life years was in terms of "disease-free" years, though a healthy lifestyle was also associated with extra years lived after a CVD event. There are sizeable benefits to LE without CVD and also for survival after CVD onset when people favour a lifestyle characterized by salutary behaviours. Remaining a non-smoker yielded the greatest extra years in overall LE, when compared to the effects of routinely taking physical activity, being overweight but not obese, and drinking in moderation. The majority of the overall LE benefit is in disease free years. Therefore, it is important for policy makers and the public to know that prevention through maintaining a favourable lifestyle is "never too late".

A box in the field: modernity and the barn in twentieth-century Ireland

This paper argues that the modern barn in Ireland is a complex social and architectural phenomena that is without, or has yet to find, a satisfactory discourse. Emerging in the middle third of the twentieth century, the modern barn – replete with corrugated iron and I-sections – continues to represent a presence in the Irish landscape whose ubiquity is as emphatic as its flexibility. It is, however, its universal properties that begin to suggest connections with wider narratives. The modernising aspects of the barn that appear in the 1920s and 30s begin to conflate with a rhetoric of architectural modernism which was simultaneously appearing across Europe. But while the relationship between high modernism’s critique of what it divined as the inspirational qualities of utilitarian buildings – Walter Gropius on grain silos, Le Corbusier on aircraft hangers etc. – has been well-documented, in Ireland this relationship perhaps contains another layer of complexity.
The barn’s consolidation as a modern type coincided with the search for a nation’s cultural identity after centuries of colonial rule. This tended to be an introspective vision that prioritised rural space over urban space, agriculture over industry, and imagined the small farm as a central tenet in the construction of a new State. This paper suggests that the twentieth-century barn – as a product of the mechanisation of agriculture promoted by the new administrations – is an iconic structure, emblematic of attempts to reconcile the contradictory forces and imagery of modernity with the mores of a traditional society. Moreover, given a cultural purview that was often ambivalent or even hostile to the ideologies and forms of modernity, the barn in Ireland is, perhaps, not so much the inspiration but the realisation of an architectural modernism in that country at its most pervasive, enduring and unself-conscious.

The prevalence of refractive errors among adults in the United States, Western Europe, and Australia.

OBJECTIVE:

To estimate the prevalence of refractive errors in persons 40 years and older.

METHODS:

Counts of persons with phakic eyes with and without spherical equivalent refractive error in the worse eye of +3 diopters (D) or greater, -1 D or less, and -5 D or less were obtained from population-based eye surveys in strata of gender, race/ethnicity, and 5-year age intervals. Pooled age-, gender-, and race/ethnicity-specific rates for each refractive error were applied to the corresponding stratum-specific US, Western European, and Australian populations (years 2000 and projected 2020).

RESULTS:

Six studies provided data from 29 281 persons. In the US, Western European, and Australian year 2000 populations 40 years or older, the estimated crude prevalence for hyperopia of +3 D or greater was 9.9%, 11.6%, and 5.8%, respectively (11.8 million, 21.6 million, and 0.47 million persons). For myopia of -1 D or less, the estimated crude prevalence was 25.4%, 26.6%, and 16.4% (30.4 million, 49.6 million, and 1.3 million persons), respectively, of whom 4.5%, 4.6%, and 2.8% (5.3 million, 8.5 million, and 0.23 million persons), respectively, had myopia of -5 D or less. Projected prevalence rates in 2020 were similar.

CONCLUSIONS:

Refractive errors affect approximately one third of persons 40 years or older in the United States and Western Europe, and one fifth of Australians in this age group.

Neolithic and Bronze age migration to Ireland and establishment of the insular Atlantic genome

The Neolithic and Bronze Age transitions were profound cultural shifts catalyzed in parts of Europe by migrations, first of early farmers from the Near East and then Bronze Age herders from the Pontic Steppe. However, a decades-long, unresolved controversy is whether population change or cultural adoption occurred at the Atlantic edge, within the British Isles. We address this issue by using the first whole genome data from prehistoric Irish individuals. A Neolithic woman (3343–3020 cal BC) from a megalithic burial (10.3× coverage) possessed a genome of predominantly Near Eastern origin. She had some hunter–gatherer ancestry but belonged to a population of large effective size, suggesting a substantial influx of early farmers to the island. Three Bronze Age individuals from Rathlin Island (2026–1534 cal BC), including one high coverage (10.5×) genome, showed substantial Steppe genetic heritage indicating that the European population upheavals of the third millennium manifested all of the way from southern Siberia to the western ocean. This turnover invites the possibility of accompanying introduction of Indo-European, perhaps early Celtic, language. Irish Bronze Age haplotypic similarity is strongest within modern Irish, Scottish, and Welsh populations, and several important genetic variants that today show maximal or very high frequencies in Ireland appear at this horizon. These include those coding for lactase persistence, blue eye color, Y chromosome R1b haplotypes, and the hemochromatosis C282Y allele; to our knowledge, the first detection of a known Mendelian disease variant in prehistory. These findings together suggest the establishment of central attributes of the Irish genome 4,000 y ago.