Using the hidden Markov model to capture quality of care in Lombardy geriatric wards

Quality of care is an important aspect of healthcare monitoring, which is used to ensure that the healthcare system is delivering care of the highest standard. With populations growing older there is an increased urgency in making sure that the healthcare delivered is of the highest standard. Healthcare providers are under increased pressure to ensure that this is the case with public and government demand expecting a healthcare system of the highest quality. Modelling quality of care is difficult to measure due to the many ways of defining it. This paper introduces a potential model which could be used to take quality of care into account when modelling length of stay. The Coxian phase-type distribution is used to model length of stay and the associated quality of care incorporated into the Coxian using a Hidden Markov model. Covariates are also introduced to determine their impact on the hidden level to find out what potentially can affect quality of care. This model is applied to geriatic patient data from the Lombardy region of Italy. The results obtained highlighted that bed numbers and the type of hospital (public or private) can have an effect on the quality of care delivered.

A Conditional Approach for Modelling Patient Re-admissions in Hospital using a mixture of Coxian phase-type distributions incorporating Bayes Theorem

The number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation in Europe is rising. With a greater proportion of elderly people in the population comes a greater demand for health services and, in particular, hospital care. Thus, with a growing number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation competing with non-elderly patients for a fixed (and in some cases, decreasing) number of hospital beds, this results in much longer waiting times for patients, often with a less satisfactory hospital experience. However, if a better understanding of the recurring nature of elderly patient movements between the community and hospital can be developed, then it may be possible for alternative provisions of care in the community to be put in place and thus prevent readmission to hospital. The research in this paper aims to model the multiple patient transitions between hospital and community by utilising a mixture of conditional Coxian phase-type distributions that incorporates Bayes' theorem. For the purpose of demonstration, the results of a simulation study are presented and the model is applied to hospital readmission data from the Lombardy region of Italy.

Discrete Conditional Phase-type Model Utilising a Multiclass Support Vector Machine for the Prediction of Retinopathy of Prematurity

Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a rare disease in which retinal blood vessels of premature infants fail to develop normally, and is one of the major causes of childhood blindness throughout the world. The Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) model consists of two components, the conditional component measuring the inter-relationships between covariates and the survival component which models the survival distribution using a Coxian phase-type distribution. This paper expands the DC-Ph models by introducing a support vector machine (SVM), in the role of the conditional component. The SVM is capable of classifying multiple outcomes and is used to identify the infant's risk of developing ROP. Class imbalance makes predicting rare events difficult. A new class decomposition technique, which deals with the problem of multiclass imbalance, is introduced. Based on the SVM classification, the length of stay in the neonatal ward is modelled using a 5, 8 or 9 phase Coxian distribution.

Treatment of retinopathy of prematurity in Northern Ireland, 2000-2011: a population-based study

Purpose To evaluate the incidence of treatment-requiring retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) over a 12-year-period in Northern Ireland. Methods The medical records of all infants treated for ROP from January 2000 to December 2011were retrospectively reviewed and cross-referenced with the Neonatal Intensive Care Outcomes Research and Evaluation (NICORE) database. Results The Northern Ireland population data showed an increase in the number of live births from 2000 to 2011. The proportion of babies born with a birth weight <1501 g and/or <32 weeks’ gestational age remained constant (χ2 trend = 3.220, P = 0.0727), although the proportion of these babies who died prior to 42 weeks’ gestation decreased from 2000 to 2011 (P = 0.0196 using χ2 for trend = 5.445; P = 0.0354 using χ2 = 20.809). The prevalence of treatment-requiring ROP in these infants increased from 1.05% in 2000 to 5.78% in 2011 (P < 0.001 using χ2 trend = 16.309; P < 0.001 using χ2 = 31.378). Conclusions The present population-based study highlights that the incidence of treatment- requiring ROP is increasing in Northern Ireland. The increasing number of infants requiring treatment will need to be taken into consideration in the commissioning process for ROP services in Northern Ireland.

Hospitalization in Geriatric Wards: Considerations on the Evaluation of the Outcome

Within a defined law framework, the Italian central health system dictates the standards for hospitalization to local care units, which are in turn allowed to establish their own effectiveness criteria. The appropriateness of the hospitalization decision is therefore predetermined at patients admission, whereas its effectiveness relies on the ex post patient well-being as a result of the complex system of reciprocal relations between patients and healthcare agents at the ward level. We consider the outcomes in geriatric wards referring to the national health system, with respect both to patients traits at the individual level and wards/hospital settings. The risk that models the healthcare outcome is accordingly adjusted for covariates at the different levels of analysis (Goldstein & Spiegelhalter, 1996), thus allowing to differentiate among outcomes in terms of the hospitalization structure and, when appropriate, of territorial aggregation.

Environmental and social supply chain management sustainability practices: construct development and measurement

The purpose of this paper is to conceptualise and operationalise the concept of supply chain management sustainability practices. Based on a multi-stage procedure involving a literature review, expert Q-sort and pre-test process, pilot test and survey of 156 supply chain directors and managers in Ireland, we develop a multidimensional conceptualisation and measure of social and environmental supply chain management sustainability practices. The research findings show theoretically sound constructs based on four underlying sustainable supply chain management practices: monitoring, implementing systems, new product and process development and strategy redefinition. A two-factor model is then identified as the most reliable: comprising process-based and market-based practices.

Going above and beyond: how sustainability culture and entrepreneurial orientation drive social sustainability supply chain practice adoption

Purpose
– This paper aims to examine what drives the adoption of different social sustainability supply chain practices. Research has shown that certain factors drive the adoption of environmental sustainability practices but few focus on social supply chain practices, delineate which practices are adopted or what drives their adoption.

Design/methodology/approach
– The authors examine the facilitative role of sustainability culture to explain the adoption of social sustainability supply chain practices: basic practices, consisting of monitoring and management systems and advanced practices, which are new product and process development and strategic redefinition. The authors then explore the role played by a firm’s entrepreneurial orientation in shaping and reinforcing the adoption of social sustainability supply chain practices. A survey of 156 supply chain managers in multiple industries in Ireland was conducted to test the relationship between the variables.

Findings
– The findings show that sustainability culture is positively related to all the practices, and entrepreneurial orientation impacts and moderates social sustainability culture in advanced social sustainability supply chain adoption.

Research limitations/implications
– As with any survey, this is a single point in time with a single respondent. Implications for managers include finding the right culture in the organisation to implement social sustainability supply chain management practices that go beyond monitoring to behavioural changes in the supply chain with implications beyond the dyad of buyer and supplier to lower tier suppliers and the community surrounding the supply chain.

Practical implications
– The implications for managers include developing and fostering cultural attributes in the organisation to implement social sustainability supply chain management practices that go beyond monitoring suppliers to behavioural changes in the supply chain with implications beyond the dyad of buyer and supplier to lower tier suppliers and the community surrounding the supply chain.

Originality/value
– This is the first time, to the authors’ knowledge, that cultural and entrepreneurial variables have been tested for social sustainability supply chain practices, giving them new insights into how and why social sustainability supply chain practices are adopted.

The Right to Appropriate and meaningful Education for Children with ASD

This paper will explore from a ‘child’s rights perspective’ the ‘right’ of children with autistic spectrum disorder (ASD) to appropriate and meaningful education.Human ‘rights’ principles within international law will be evaluated in relation to how they have been interpreted and applied in relation to achieving this ‘right’. The International Convention of the Rights of the Child (United Nations in Convention on the rights of the child, office of the high commissioner, United Nations, Geneva, 1989) and the convention on the rights of the person with disability (United Nations in Convention on the rights of person’s with disabilities and optional protocol, office of the high commissioner, United Nations, Geneva, 2006) amongst others will be utilised to argue the case for ‘inclusive’educational opportunities to be a ‘right’ of every child on the autistic spectrum. The efficacy of mainstream inclusion is explored, identifying the position that a ‘one size fits all’model of education is not appropriate for all children with ASD.