Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles

OBJECTIVE: Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland.

METHODS: CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i) smoking prevalence and (ii) physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii) dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv) dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted.

RESULTS: Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25-84). In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS: Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere) could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity.

Planning Bill (3): Community Involvement

This paper looks at the Community Involvement provisions set out in the Planning Bill. It is one of four papers prepared for the Bill, which follow a common format that highlights: the key issues arising in the Bill; summarises the findings of the public consultation and the Government’s response; reviews comparable arrangements in comparable jurisdictions and highlights potential contentious issues that arise.

Planning Bill (4): Implementation, Performance and Decision making: Issues of Capacity, Delivery and Quality

This paper examines issues of capacity, delivery and quality in relation to the Planning Bill. It is one of four papers and follows a common format highlighting the key issues arising in the Bill; summarising the findings of the public consultation and the Government’s response; reviewing comparable arrangements in comparable jurisdictions and highlighting potential contentious issues.

Potentially inappropriate prescribing in two populations with differing socio-economic profiles: a cross-sectional database study using the PROMPT criteria

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to establish the prevalence of potentially inappropriate prescribing (PIP) in middle-aged adults (45-64 years) in two populations with differing socio-economic profiles, and to investigate factors associated with PIP, using the PROMPT (PRescribing Optimally in Middle-aged People's Treatments) criteria.METHODS: A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted using 2012 data from the Enhanced Prescribing Database (EPD), covering the full population in Northern Ireland and the Health Services Executive Primary Care Reimbursement Service (HSE-PCRS) database, covering the most socio-economically deprived third of the population in this age group in the Republic of Ireland. The prevalence for each PROMPT criterion and overall prevalence of PIP were calculated. Logistic regression was used to investigate the association between PIP and gender, age group and polypharmacy.RESULTS: This study included 441,925 patients from the EPD and 309,748 patients from the HSE-PCRS database. Polypharmacy was common in both datasets (46.7 % in the HSE-PCRS and 20.3 % in the EPD). The prevalence of PIP was 42.9 % (95%CI 42.7, 43.1) in the HSE-PCRS and 21.1 % (95%CI 21.0, 21.2) in the EPD. Age group, female gender and polypharmacy were significantly associated with PIP in both populations (p < 0.05) and polypharmacy had the strongest association.CONCLUSIONS: PIP is common amongst middle-aged people with the risk of PIP increasing with polypharmacy. Differences in the prevalence of polypharmacy and PIP between the two populations may relate to heterogeneity in healthcare services and different socio-economic profiles, with higher rates of multimorbidity and associated polypharmacy in more deprived groups.

Facts, Hacks and Turbines: Media Analysis of Irish Wind Energy

Wind energy projects face increasing opposition from host communities throughout the western world. Governments have responded in a range of ways, including enhanced local control over consenting (England), reform of planning regulations (Australia) or community ownership (Denmark). However, there is no effective mechanism for monitoring levels of social acceptance and thus, no means of evaluating the effectiveness of these approaches. There have been attempts to understand how social framing of wind energy in the media (e.g. Van de Velde et al 2010, Barry and Ellis, 2008, Hindmarsh 2014), highlighting how this changes over time. However, no research has focussed on Ireland and critically, none have examined whether this can help monitor overall levels of social acceptance. In order to explore this, this paper will present a media analysis of wind energy in the Republic of Ireland, which witnessed a rapid increase in wind energy capacity and has the highest energy penetration of wind in the world (19%). However, this has been accompanied by increasing public opposition and (assumed) declining levels of social acceptance.

This paper will describe the results of analysing over 8000 articles on wind energy that have appeared in three Irish newspapers. These are assessed through historical-diachronic (over time) and comparative –synchronic (differences between newspapers) analyses (Carvalho 2007) to highlight changing trends in framing wind energy and changing concerns over wind energy in Ireland. The paper will consider whether such media analysis could form a tool for monitoring the trends in social acceptance of wind energy.

The Changing Context for Planning Education in the UK and the Prospects for Research-Led, Practice-Engaged Teaching

The UK’s Royal Town Planning Institute (RTPI) has celebrated its centenary in 2014, marking 100 years of close relationships between university-based planning schools and a professional body focused on planning practice. During this period, the context for university education and the very idea of planning have changed dramatically contributing to a continual renegotiation of the relationships between the planning profession and the educational institutions it accredits. These changes have been particularly pronounced in the last 10 years where a number of factors have forced a rapid change in the nature of planjavascript:void(0);ning education in the UK. This has included a boom and then slump in the number of planning students linked to the dynamics of national economic situation, a reorganization of many planning school curricula, and their merger with cognate disciplines such as geography and an increased focus on research output, rather than professional engagement as the key indicator of institutional success. This last factor adds a particularly new dimension to the profession-university relationship, which could potentially lead to either straining of tensions or a synergy through research-led teaching that could significantly benefit both. This chapter will briefly review the evolution of UK planning schools and of the main ideas informing planning education. It will then describe the current profile of UK planning schools, based on an extensive national survey conducted on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute. The paper will then critically review the main challenges and opportunities facing UK planning schools in the context of changes in both planning practice and higher education. It will then move on to the concept of research-led teaching, drawing on current practice in the UK and review how well this concept serves students and the idea of developing reflective planning practitioners. Finally, the paper will seek to draw broad lessons from the experience of the UK and reflect on the type of planning education that can best serve planning professions in a variety of international contexts in the future.