Hybrid probabilistic wind power forecasting using temporally local Gaussian process

The demand for sustainable development has resulted in a rapid growth in wind power worldwide. Despite various approaches have been proposed to improve the accuracy and to overcome the uncertainties associated with traditional methods, the stochastic and variable nature of wind still remains the most challenging issue in accurately forecasting wind power. This paper presents a hybrid deterministic-probabilistic method where a temporally local ‘moving window’ technique is used in Gaussian Process to examine estimated forecasting errors. This temporally local Gaussian Process employs less measurement data while faster and better predicts wind power at two wind farms, one in the USA and the other in Ireland. Statistical analysis on the results shows that the method can substantially reduce the forecasting error while more likely generate Gaussian-distributed residuals, particularly for short-term forecast horizons due to its capability to handle the time-varying characteristics of wind power.

Sandwich nanoarchitecture of LiV3O8/graphene multilayer nanomembranes via layer-by-layer self-assembly for long-cycle-life lithium-ion battery cathodes

A lack of suitable high-performance cathode materials has become the major barrier to their applications in future advanced communication equipment and electric vehicle power systems. In this paper, we have developed a layer-by-layer self-assembly approach for fabricating a novel sandwich nanoarchitecture of multilayered LiV₃O₈ nanoparticle/graphene nanosheet (M-nLVO/GN) hybrid electrodes for potential use in high performance lithium ion batteries by using a porous Ni foam as a substrate. The prepared sandwich nanoarchitecture of M-nLVO/GN hybrid electrodes exhibited high performance as a cathode material for lithium-ion batteries, such as high reversible specific capacity (235 mA h g^-1 at a current density of 0.3 A g^-1), high coulombic efficiency (over 98%), fast rate capability (up to a current density of 10 A g^-1), and superior capacity retention during cycling (90% capacity retention with a current density of 0.3 A g^-1 after 300 cycles). Very significantly, this novel insight into the design and synthesis of sandwich nanoarchitecture would extend their application to various electrochemical energy storage devices, such as fuel cells and supercapacitors.

Variable Window Power Spectral Density Attack

Side channel attacks permit the recovery of the secret key held within a cryptographic device. This paper presents a new EM attack in the frequency domain, using a power spectral density analysis that permits the use of variable spectral window widths for each trace of the data set and demonstrates how this attack can therefore overcome both inter-and intra-round random insertion type countermeasures. We also propose a novel re-alignment method exploiting the minimal power markers exhibited by electromagnetic emanations. The technique can be used for the extraction and re-alignment of round data in the time domain.

Performance analysis of a feasible air-cycle refrigeration system for road transport

The performance of an air-cycle refrigeration unit for road transport, which had been previously reported, was analysed in detail and compared with the original design model and an equivalent Thermo King SL200 vapour-cycle refrigeration unit. Poor heat exchanger performance was found to be the major contributor to low coefficient of performance values. Using state-of-the-art, but achievable performance levels for turbomachinery and heat exchangers, the performance of an optimised air-cycle refrigeration unit for the same application was predicted. The power requirement of the optimised air-cycle unit was 7% greater than the equivalent vapour-cycle unit at full-load operation. However, at part-load operation the air-cycle unit was estimated to absorb 35% less power than the vapour-cycle unit. The analysis demonstrated that the air-cycle system could potentially match the overall fuel consumption of the vapour-cycle transport refrigeration unit, while delivering the benefit of a completely refrigerant free system.

The Islay wave power project: an engineering prospective

The design, construction and subsequent operation of the 75 kW oscillating water column wave power plant on the Isle of Islay has provided a significant insight into the practicality of wave power conversion. The development of wave power plant poses a significant design and construction challenge for not only civil but also mechanical and electrical engineers. The plant must withstand the immense forces imposed during storms, yet efficiently convert the slow cyclic motion of waves into a useful energy source such as electricity and do so at a price competitive with other forms of generation. In addition, the hostile marine environment hampers the construction process and the variability of the wave resource poses problems for electrical control and grid integration. Many sceptics consider wave power conversion to be too difficult, too expensive and too variable to justify the effort and expense necessary to develop this technology. However, the authors contend that with modular wave power systems developed from the practical experience gained with the Islay plant, wave power is a viable technology with a considerable world market potential. However, this technology is still at the early stages of development and will require the construction of a number of different prototypes before there is extensive commercial exploitation.

An Investigation of the Flow Field through a Variable Geometry Turbine Stator with Vane Endwall Clearance

Variable geometry turbines provide an extra degree of flexibility in air management in turbocharged engines. The pivoting stator vanes used to achieve the variable turbine geometry necessitate the inclusion of stator vane endwall clearances. The consequent leakage flow through the endwall clearances impacts the flow in the stator vane passages and an understanding of the impact of the leakage flow on stator loss is required. A numerical model of a typical variable geometry turbine was developed using the commercial CFX-10 computational fluid dynamics software, and validated using laser doppler velocimetry and static pressure measurements from a variable geometry turbine with stator vane endwall clearance. Two different stator vane positions were investigated, each at three different operating conditions representing different vane loadings. The vane endwall leakage was found to have a significant impact on the stator loss and on the uniformity of flow entering the turbine rotor. The leakage flow changed considerably at different vane positions and flow incidence at vane inlet was found to have a significant impact.

3D Simulations of Surface Harmonic Generation with few-cycle laser pulses

The mechanism of harmonic generation in the interaction of short laser pulses with solid targets holds the promise for the production of intense attosecond pulses. Using the three dimensional code ILLUMINATION we have performed simulations pertaining to an experimentally realizable parameter range by high power laser systems to become available in the near future. The emphasis of the investigation is on the coherent nature of the emission. We studied the influence of the plasma scale length on the harmonic efficiency, angular distribution and the focusability using a post processing scheme in which the far-field of the emission is calculated. It is found that the presence of an extended density profile reduces significantly the transverse coherence length of the emitted XUV light. The different stages of the interaction for two particular cases can be followed with the help of movies.

Exploring figures of merit associated with the suboptimum operation of class-E power amplifiers

Closed-form design equations for the operation of a class-E amplifier for zero switch voltage slope and arbitrary duty cycle are derived. This approach allows an additional degree of freedom in the design of class-E amplifiers which are normally designed for 50 duty ratio. The analysis developed permits the selection of non-unique solutions where amplifier efficiency is theoretically 100 but power output capability is less than that the 50 duty ratio case would permit. To facilitate comparison between 50 (optimal) and non-50 (suboptimal) duty ratio cases, each important amplifier parameter is normalised to its corresponding optimum operation value. It is shown that by choosing a non-50 suboptimal solution, the operating frequency of a class-E amplifier can be extended. In addition, it is shown that by operating the amplifier in the suboptimal regime, other amplifier parameters, for example, transistor output capacitance or peak switch voltage, can be included along with the standard specification criteria of output power, DC supply voltage and operating frequency as additional input design specifications. Suboptimum class-E operation may have potential advantages for monolithic microwave integrated circuit realisation as lower inductance values (lower series resistance, higher self-resonance frequency, less area) may be required when compared with the results obtained for optimal class-E amplifier synthesis. The theoretical analysis conducted here was verified by harmonic balance simulation, with excellent agreement between both methods. © The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2007.

Sensitivity characteristics of inverse Class-E power amplifier

In this paper, an analysis is performed in order to determine the effects that variations in circuit component values, frequency, and duty cycle have on the performance of the newly introduced inverse Class-E amplifier. Analysis of the inverse Class-E amplifier under the generalized condition of arbitrary duty cycle is performed and it is shown that the inverse Class-E amplifier is reasonably tolerant to circuit parameter variations. When compared to the conventional Class-E amplifier the inverse Class-E amplifier offers the potential for high efficiency at increased output power as well as higher peak output power levels than are available with a conventional Class-E amplifier. Further the inverse Class-E amplifier provides more flexibility for deployment with a pulsewidth modulator as the means of producing full-carrier amplitude modulation (AM) due to its ability to operate to high AM modulation indices.

Plant-wide predictive control for a thermal power plant based on a physical plant model

A constrained non-linear, physical model-based, predictive control (NPMPC) strategy is developed for improved plant-wide control of a thermal power plant. The strategy makes use of successive linearisation and recursive state estimation using extended Kalman filtering to obtain a linear state-space model. The linear model and a quadratic programming routine are used to design a constrained long-range predictive controller One special feature is the careful selection of a specific set of plant model parameters for online estimation, to account for time-varying system characteristics resulting from major system disturbances and ageing. These parameters act as nonstationary stochastic states and help to provide sufficient degrees-of-freedom to obtain unbiased estimates of controlled outputs. A 14th order non-linear plant model, simulating the dominant characteristics of a 200 MW oil-fired pou er plant has been used to test the NPMPC algorithm. The control strategy gives impressive simulation results, during large system disturbances and extremely high rate of load changes, right across the operating range. These results compare favourably to those obtained with the state-space GPC method designed under similar conditions.

Convergence and tracking analysis of a variable normalised LMF (XE-NLMF) algorithm

The least-mean-fourth (LMF) algorithm is known for its fast convergence and lower steady state error, especially in sub-Gaussian noise environments. Recent work on normalised versions of the LMF algorithm has further enhanced its stability and performance in both Gaussian and sub-Gaussian noise environments. For example, the recently developed normalised LMF (XE-NLMF) algorithm is normalised by the mixed signal and error powers, and weighted by a fixed mixed-power parameter. Unfortunately, this algorithm depends on the selection of this mixing parameter. In this work, a time-varying mixed-power parameter technique is introduced to overcome this dependency. A convergence analysis, transient analysis, and steady-state behaviour of the proposed algorithm are derived and verified through simulations. An enhancement in performance is obtained through the use of this technique in two different scenarios. Moreover, the tracking analysis of the proposed algorithm is carried out in the presence of two sources of nonstationarities: (1) carrier frequency offset between transmitter and receiver and (2) random variations in the environment. Close agreement between analysis and simulation results is obtained. The results show that, unlike in the stationary case, the steady-state excess mean-square error is not a monotonically increasing function of the step size. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Resolution of a taxonomic conundrum: an ultrastructural and molecular description of the life cycle of Pleistophora mulleri (Pfeiffer 1895; Georgevitch 1929)

The classification of a microsporidian parasite observed in the abdominal muscles of amphipod hosts has been repeatedly revised but still remains inconclusive. This parasite has variable spore numbers within a sporophorous vesicle and has been assigned to the genera Glugea, Pleistophora, Stempellia, and Thelohania. We used electron microscopy and molecular evidence to resolve the previous taxonomic confusion and confirm its identification as Pleistophora mulleri. The life cycle of P. mulleri is described from the freshwater amphipod host Gammarus duebeni celticus. Infection appeared as white tubular masses within the abdominal muscle of the host. Light and transmission electron microscope examination revealed the presence of an active microsporidian infection that was diffuse within the muscle block with no evidence of xenoma formation. Paucinucleate merogonial plasmodia were surrounded by an amorphous coat immediately external to the plasmalemma. The amorphous coat developed into a merontogenetic sporophorous vesicle that was present throughout sporulation. Sporogony was polysporous resulting in uninucleate spores, with a bipartite polaroplast, an anisofilar polar filament and a large posterior vacuole. SSU rDNA analysis supported the ultrastructural evidence clearly placing this parasite within the genus Pleistophora. This paper indicates that Pleistophora species are not restricted to vertebrate hosts.

The exponentiated convex variable step-size (ECVSS) algorithm

For some time there is a large interest in variable step-size methods for adaptive filtering. Recently, a few stochastic gradient algorithms have been proposed, which are based on cost functions that have exponential dependence on the chosen error. However, we have experienced that the cost function based on exponential of the squared error does not always satisfactorily converge. In this paper we modify this cost function in order to improve the convergence of exponentiated cost function and the novel ECVSS (exponentiated convex variable step-size) stochastic gradient algorithm is obtained. The proposed technique has attractive properties in both stationary and abrupt-change situations. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.