Models of open populations with space-limited recruitment: extension of theory and application to the barnacle Chthamalus montagui.

1. Barnacles are a good model organism for the study of open populations with space-limited recruitment. These models are applicable to other species with open supply of new individuals and resource limitation. The inclusion of space in models leads to reductions in recruitment with increasing density, and thus predictions of population size and stability are possible. 2. Despite the potential generality of a demographic theory for open space-limited populations, the models currently have a narrow empirical base. In this study, a model for an open population with space-limited recruitment was extended to include size-specific survival and promotions to any size class. The assumptions of this model were tested using data from a pan-European study of the barnacle Chthamalus montagui Southward. Two models were constructed: a 6-month model and a periodic annual model. Predicted equilibria and their stabilities were compared between shores. 3. Tests of model assumptions supported the extension of the theory to include promotions to any size class. Mortality was found to be size-specific and density independent. Studied populations were open, with recruitment proportional to free space. 4. The 6-month model showed a significant interaction between time and location for equilibrium free space. This may have been due to contrasts in the timing of structuring processes (i.e. creating and filling space) between Mediterranean and Atlantic systems. Integration of the 6-month models into a periodic annual model removed the differences in equilibrium-free space between locations. 5. Model predictions show a remarkable similarity between shores at a European scale. Populations were persistent and all solutions were stable. This reflects the apparent absence of density-dependent mortality and a high adult survivorship in C. montagui. As populations are intrinsically stable, observations of fluctuations in density are directly attributable to variations in the environmental forcing of recruitment or mortality

Farmer perception of suitable conditions for slurry application compared with decision support system recommendations

The application of slurry nutrients to land can be associated with unintended losses to the environment depending on soil and weather conditions. Correct timing of slurry application, however, can increase plant nutrient uptake and reduce losses. A decision support system (DSS), which predicts optimum conditions for slurry spreading based on the Hybrid Soil Moisture Deficit (HSMD) model, was investigated for use as a policy tool. The DSS recommendations were compared to farmer perception of suitable conditions for slurry spreading for three soil drainage classes (well, moderate and poorly drained) to better understand on farm slurry management practices and to identify potential conflict with farmer opinion. Six farmers participated in a survey over two and a half years, during which they completed a daily diary, and their responses were compared to Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD) calculations and weather data recorded by on farm meteorological stations. The perception of land drainage quality differed between farmers and was related to their local knowledge and experience. It was found that the allocation of grass fields to HSMD drainage classes using a visual assessment method aligned farmer perception of drainage at the national scale. Farmer opinion corresponded to the theoretical understanding that slurry should not be applied when the soil is wetter than field capacity, i.e. when drainage can occur. While weather and soil conditions (especially trafficability) were the principal reasons given by farmers not to spread slurry, farm management practices (grazing and silage) and current Nitrates Directive policies (closed winter period for spreading) combined with limited storage capacities were obstacles to utilisation of slurry nutrients. Despite the slightly more restrictive advice of the DSS regarding the number of suitable spreading opportunities, the system has potential to address an information deficit that would help farmers to reduce nutrient losses and optimise plant nutrient uptake by improved slurry management. The DSS advice was in general agreement with the farmers and, therefore, they should not be resistant to adopting the tool for day to day management.

Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years

Volcanic eruptions contribute to climate variability, but quantifying these contributions has been limited by inconsistencies in the timing of atmospheric volcanic aerosol loading determined from ice cores and subsequent cooling from climate proxies such as tree rings. Here we resolve these inconsistencies and show that large eruptions in the tropics and high latitudes were primary drivers of interannual-to-decadal temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 2,500 years. Our results are based on new records of atmospheric aerosol loading developed from high-resolution, multi-parameter measurements from an array of Greenland and Antarctic ice cores as well as distinctive age markers to constrain chronologies. Overall, cooling was proportional to the magnitude of volcanic forcing and persisted for up to ten years after some of the largest eruptive episodes. Our revised timescale more firmly implicates volcanic eruptions as catalysts in the major sixth-century pandemics, famines, and socioeconomic disruptions in Eurasia and Mesoamerica while allowing multi-millennium quantification of climate response to volcanic forcing.

Patterns of hospitalisation before and following initiation of haemodialysis: a 5 year single centre study

Background: The utilisation of healthcare resources by prevalent haemodialysis patients has been robustly evaluated with regard to the provision of outpatient haemodialysis; however, the impact of hospitalisation among such patients is poorly defined. Minimal information is available in the UK to estimate the health and economic burden associated with the inpatient management of prevalent haemodialysis patients. The aim of this study was to assess the pattern of hospitalisation among a cohort of haemodialysis patients, before and following their initiation of haemodialysis. In addition the study sought to assess the impact of their admissions on bed occupancy in a large tertiary referral hospital in a single region in the UK.

Methods: All admission episodes were reviewed and those receiving dialysis with the Belfast City Hospital Programme were identified over a 5 year period from January 2001 to December 2005. This tertiary referral centre provides dialysis services for a population of approximately 700?000 and additional specialist renal services for the remainder of Northern Ireland. The frequency and duration of hospitalisation, and contribution to bed day occupancy of haemodialysis patients, was determined and compared to other common conditions which are known to be associated with high bed occupancy. In addition, the pattern and timing of admissions in dialysis patients in relation to their dialysis initiation date was assessed.

Results: Over the 5 year study period, 798 haemodialysis patients were admitted a total of 2882 times. These accounted for 2.5% of all admissions episodes; the median number of admissions for these patients was 3 (2–5) which compared with 1 (1–2) for non-dialysis patients. The majority of first hospitalisations (54%) were within 100 days before or after commencement of maintenance dialysis therapy. In all clinical specialties the median length of stay for haemodialysis patients was significantly longer than for patients not on haemodialysis (p=0.004). In multivariate analysis with adjustment for age, gender, and other clinically relevant diagnostic codes, maintenance haemodialysis patients stayed on average 3.75 times longer than other patient groups (ratio of geometric means 3.75, IQR 3.46–4.06).

Conclusions: Maintenance haemodialysis therapy is an important risk factor for prolonged hospitalisation regardless of the primary reason for admission. Such patients require admission more frequently than the general hospital population, particularly within 100 days before and after initiation of their first dialysis treatment.

The pace of Holocene vegetation change - testing for synchronous developments

Mid to high latitude forest ecosystems have undergone several major compositional changes during the Holocene. The temporal and spatial patterns of these vegetation changes hold potential information to their causes and triggers. Here we test the hypothesis that the timing of vegetation change was synchronous on a sub-continental scale, which implies a common trigger or a step-like change in climate parameters. Pollen diagrams from selected European regions were statistically divided into assemblage zones and the temporal pattern of the zone boundaries analysed. The results show that the temporal pattern of vegetation change was significantly different from random. Times of change cluster around8.2, 4.8, 3.7, and 1.2 ka, while times of higher than average stability were found around 2.1 and 5.1 ka.Compositional changes linked to the expansion of Corylus avellana and Alnus glutinosa centre around 10.6 and 9.5 ka, respectively. A climatic trigger initiating these changes may have occurred 0.5 to 1 ka earlier, respectively. The synchronous expansion of C. avellana and A. glutinosa exemplify that dispersal is not necessarily followed by population expansion. The partly synchronous, partly random expansion of A. glutinosa in adjacent European regions exemplifies that sudden synchronous population expansions are not species specific traits but vary regionally.

Interval timing and trajectory in unequal amplitude movements

The Wing-Kristofferson (WK) model of movement timing emphasises the separation of central timer and motor processes. Several studies of repetitive timing have shown that increase in variability at longer intervals is attributable to timer processes; however, relatively little is known about the way motor aspects of timing are affected by task movement constraints. In the present study, we examined timing variability in finger tapping with differences in interval to assess central timer effects, and with differences in movement amplitude to assess motor implementation effects. Then, we investigated whether effects of motor timing observed at the point of response (flexion offset/tap) are also evident in extension, which would suggest that both phases are subject to timing control. Eleven participants performed bimanual simultaneous tapping, at two target intervals (400, 600 ms) with the index finger of each hand performing movements of equal (3 or 6 cm) or unequal amplitude (left hand 3, right hand 6 cm and vice versa). As expected, timer variability increased with the mean interval but showed only small, non-systematic effects with changes in movement amplitude. Motor implementation variability was greater in unequal amplitude conditions. The same pattern of motor variability was observed both at flexion and extension phases of movement. These results suggest that intervals are generated by a central timer, triggering a series of events at the motor output level including flexion and the following extension, which are explicitly represented in the timing system.

Characterisation of the Timing and Prevalence of Receptor Tyrosine Kinase Expression Changes in Esophageal Carcinogenesis

Despite being common in epithelial malignancies, the timing of receptor tyrosine kinase (RTK) up-regulation is poorly understood and therefore hampers the identification of the receptor to target for effective treatment. We aimed to determine if RTK expression changes were early events in carcinogenesis. Esophageal adenocarcinoma and its pre-invasive lesion, Barrett's esophagus, were used for immunohistochemical analysis of the RTK panel, EGFR, ErbB2, ErbB3, Met and FGFR2, by utilising a cohort of patients with invasive disease (n = 367) and two cohorts with pre-invasive disease, one cross-sectional (n = 110) and one longitudinal in time (n = 91). The results demonstrated that 51% of esophageal adenocarcinomas over-expressed at least one of the RTK panel; with 21% of these over-expressing multiple receptors. Up-regulation of RTK expression was an early event corresponding with low grade dysplasia development (25% in areas without dysplasia vs. 63% in low grade dysplasia, p

Investigating the of Water treatment residuals on Phosphorus mobility derived from biosolid application to Willow coppice

Short rotation willow coppice (SRWC) treatment of biosolids is limited by the oversupply of biosolid derived phosphorus; this can lead to eventual losses of phosphorus to water. Water treatment residuals (WTR), a by-product of potable water treatment, have been identified as a viable soil amendment for mitigation of phosphorus loss. WTR exploit the capacity of internally held aluminium oxide-hydroxide complexes to immobilise labile phosphorus. However indiscriminate additions to plots can result in inadequate control or excessive immobilization of soluble P, leading to crop deficiencies. Four commercially grown common willow (Salix) genotypes (Terra Nova, Endeavour, Resolution and Tora) were grown in soil amended with WTR at five different application rates (0, 10, 25, 50 and 100 tonne ha-1 air-dry basis) in a glasshouse pot experiment. The effects of application rates on plant yields, tissue P concentrations, P uptake and soil labile P availability were measured. Results indicate labile P was reduced with increasing WTR application rates, without any negative agronomic impacts.

Newly Acquired Fear of Falling Leads to Altered Eye Movement Patterns and Reduced Stepping Safety: A Case Study

This opportune case study describes visual and stepping behaviours of an 87 year old female (P8), both prior to, and following two falls. Before falling, when asked to walk along a path containing two stepping guides positioned before and after an obstacle, P8 generally visually fixated the first stepping guide until after foot contact inside it. However, after falling P8 consistently looked away from the stepping guide before completing the step into it in order to fixate the upcoming obstacle in her path. The timing of gaze redirection away from the target (in relation to foot contact inside it) correlated with absolute stepping error. No differences in eyesight, cognitive function, or balance were found between pre- and post-fall recordings. However, P8 did report large increases in fall-related anxiety and reduced balance confidence, supporting previously suggested links between anxiety/increased fear or falling and maladaptive visual/stepping behaviours. The results represent a novel insight into how psychological and related behavioural factors can change in older adults following a fall, and provide a possible partial rationalisation for why recent fallers are more likely to fall again in the following 12 months. These findings highlight novel possibilities for falls prevention and rehabilitation.

Ages of 24 widespread tephras erupted since 30,000 years ago in New Zealand, with re-evaluation of the timing and palaeoclimatic implications of the Lateglacial cool episode recorded at Kaipo bog

Tephras are important for the NZ-INTIMATE project because they link all three records comprising the composite inter-regional stratotype developed for the New Zealand climate event stratigraphy (NZ-CES). Here we firstly report new calendar ages for 24 widespread marker tephras erupted since 30,000 calendar (cal.) years ago in New Zealand to help facilitate their use as chronostratigraphic dating tools for the NZ-CES and for other palaeoenvironmental and geological applications. The selected tephras comprise 12 rhyolitic tephras from Taupo, nine rhyolitic tephras from Okataina, one peralkaline rhyolitic tephra from Tuhua, and one andesitic tephra each from Tongariro and Egmont/Taranaki volcanic centres. Age models for the tephras were obtained using three methods: (i) C-based wiggle-match dating of wood from trees killed by volcanic eruptions (these dates published previously); (ii) flexible depositional modelling of a high-resolution C-dated age-depth sequence at Kaipo bog using two Bayesian-based modelling programs, Bacon and OxCal's P_Sequence function, and the IntCal09 data set (with SH offset correction-44±17yr); and (iii) calibration of C ages using OxCal's Tau_Boundary function and the SHCal04 and IntCal09 data sets. Our preferred dates or calibrated ages for the 24 tephras are as follows (youngest to oldest, all mid-point or mean ages of 95% probability ranges): Kaharoa AD 1314±12; Taupo (Unit Y) AD 232±10; Mapara (Unit X) 2059±118cal.yrBP; Whakaipo (Unit V) 2800±60cal.yrBP; Waimihia (Unit S) 3401±108cal.yrBP; Stent (Unit Q) 4322±112cal.yrBP; Unit K 5111±210cal.yrBP; Whakatane 5526±145cal.yrBP; Tuhua 6577±547cal.yrBP; Mamaku 7940±257cal.yrBP; Rotoma 9423±120cal.yrBP; Opepe (Unit E) 9991±160cal.yrBP; Poronui (Unit C) 11,170±115cal.yrBP; Karapiti (Unit B) 11,460±172cal.yrBP; Okupata 11,767±192cal.yrBP; Konini (bed b) 11,880±183cal.yrBP; Waiohau 14,009±155cal.yrBP; Rotorua 15,635±412cal.yrBP; Rerewhakaaitu 17,496±462cal.yrBP; Okareka 21,858±290cal.yrBP; Te Rere 25,171±964cal.yrBP; Kawakawa/Oruanui 25,358±162cal.yrBP; Poihipi 28,446±670cal.yrBP; and Okaia 28,621±1428cal.yrBP.Secondly, we have re-dated the start and end of the Lateglacial cool episode (climate event NZce-3 in theNZ-CES), previously referred to as the Lateglacial climate reversal, as defined at Kaipo bog in eastern North Island, New Zealand, using both Bacon and OxCal P_Sequence modelling with the IntCal09 data set. The ca1200-yr-long cool episode, indicated by a lithostratigraphic change in the Kaipo peat sequence to grey mudwith lowered carbon content, and a high-resolution pollen-derived cooling signal, began 13,739±125cal.yrBP and ended 12,550±140cal.yrBP (mid-point ages of the 95% highest posterior density regions, Bacon modelling). The OxCal modelling, generating almost identical ages, confirmed these ages. The Lateglacial cool episode (ca 13.8-12.6cal.kaBP) thus overlaps a large part of the entire Antarctic Cold Reversal chronozone (ca 14.1-12.4cal.kaBP or ca 14.6-12.8cal.kaBP), and an early part of the Greenland Stadial-1 (Younger Dryas) chronozone (ca 12.9-11.7cal.kaBP). The timing of the Lateglacial cool episode at Kaipo is broadly consistent with the latitudinal patterns in the Antarctic Cold Reversal signal suggested for the New Zealand archipelago from marine and terrestrial records, and with records from southern South America. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Ash from Changbaishan Millennium eruption recorded in Greenland ice: Implications for determining the eruption's timing and impact

Major volcanic eruptions can impact on global climate by injecting large quantities of aerosols and ash into the atmosphere that alter the radiative balance and chemical equilibrium of the stratosphere. The Millennium eruption of Tianchi (Paektu), China/North Korea, was one of the largest Late Holocene eruptions. Uncertainty about the precise timing of the eruption has hindered the recognition of its climate impact in palaeoclimate and historical records. Here we report the compelling identification of the eruption's volcanic signal in Greenland ice cores through the association of geochemically-characterized volcanic glass, represented in by bimodal populations that compare with proximal material from the source eruption. The eruption most probably occurred in the AD 940?s, seven years after the Eldgjá eruption on Iceland. We examine the eruption's potential for climate forcing using the sulfate records from the ice-cores and conclude that it was unlikely to have had a global or extra-regional impact.

Patterns of Presentation for Attempted Suicide: Analysis of a Cohort of Individuals Who Subsequently Died by Suicide

All suicides and related prior attempts occurring in Northern Ireland over two years were analyzed, focusing on number and timing of attempts, method, and mental health diagnoses. Cases were derived from coroner's records, with 90% subsequently linked to associated general practice records. Of those included, 45% recorded at least one prior attempt (with 59% switching from less to more lethal methods between attempt and suicide). Compared with those recording one attempt, those with 2+ attempts were more likely to have used less lethal methods at the suicide (OR = 2.77: 95% CI = 1.06, 7.23); and those using less lethal methods at the attempts were more likely to persist with these into the suicide (OR = 3.21: 0.79, 13.07). Finally, those with preexisting mental problems were more likely to use less lethal methods in the suicide: severe mental illness (OR = 7.88: 1.58, 39.43); common mental problems (OR = 3.68: 0.83, 16.30); and alcohol/drugs related (OR = 2.02: 0.41, 9.95). This analysis uses readily available data to highlight the persisting use of less lethal methods by visible and vulnerable attempters who eventually complete their suicide. Further analysis of such conditions could allow more effective prevention strategies to be developed.

A revised age of AD 667-699 for the latest major eruption at Rabaul

The most recent major eruption at Rabaul was one of the largest known events at this complex system, having a VEI rating of 6. The eruption generated widespread airfall pumice lapilli and ash deposits and ignimbrites of different types. The total volume of pyroclastic material produced in the eruption exceeded 11 km3 and led to a new phase of collapse within Rabaul Caldera. Initial 14C dating of the eruptive products yielded an age of about 1400 yrs BP, and the eruption became known as the "1400 BP" eruption. Previous analyses of the timing of the eruption have linked it to events in AD 536 and AD 639. However, we have re-evaluated the age of the eruption using the Bayesian wiggle-match radiocarbon dating method, and the eruption is now thought to
have occurred in the interval AD 667-699. The only significant equatorial eruptions recorded in both Greenland and Antarctic ice during this interval are at AD 681 and AD 684, dates that coincide with frost rings in bristlecone pines of western USA in the same years. Definitively linking the Rabaul eruption to this narrow age range will require identification of Rabaul tephra in the ice records. However, it is proposed that a new working hypothesis for the timing of the most recent major eruption at Rabaul is that it occurred in the interval AD 681-684.

Quantitative regulation of FLC via coordinated transcriptional initiation and elongation

The basis of quantitative regulation of gene expression is still poorly understood. In Arabidopsis thaliana, quantitative variation in expression of FLOWERING LOCUS C (FLC) influences the timing of flowering. In ambient temperatures, FLC expression is quantitatively modulated by a chromatin silencing mechanism involving alternative polyadenylation of antisense transcripts. Investigation of this mechanism unexpectedly showed that RNA polymerase II (Pol II) occupancy changes at FLC did not reflect RNA fold changes. Mathematical modeling of these transcriptional dynamics predicted a tight coordination of transcriptional initiation and elongation. This prediction was validated by detailed measurements of total and chromatin-bound FLC intronic RNA, a methodology appropriate for analyzing elongation rate changes in a range of organisms. Transcription initiation was found to vary ∼ 25-fold with elongation rate varying ∼ 8- to 12-fold. Premature sense transcript termination contributed very little to expression differences. This quantitative variation in transcription was coincident with variation in H3K36me3 and H3K4me2 over the FLC gene body. We propose different chromatin states coordinately influence transcriptional initiation and elongation rates and that this coordination is likely to be a general feature of quantitative gene regulation in a chromatin context.

Implications of aligning full registration of doctors with medical school graduation:a qualitative study of stakeholder perspectives

OBJECTIVES: The Shape of Training report recommended that full registration is aligned with medical school graduation. As part of a General Medical Council-funded study about the preparedness for practice of UK medical graduates, we explored UK stakeholders' views about this proposal using qualitative interviews (30 group and 87 individual interviews) and Framework Analysis.

SETTING: Four UK study sites, one in each country.Save

PARTICIPANTS: 185 individuals from eight stakeholder groups: (1) foundation year 1 (F1) doctors (n=34); (2) fully registered trainee doctors (n=33); (3) clinical educators (n=32); (4) undergraduate/postgraduate Deans, and Foundation Programme Directors (n=30); (5) other healthcare professionals (n=13); (6) employers (n=7); (7) policy and government (n=11); (8) patient and public representatives (n=25).

RESULTS: We identified four main themes: (1) The F1 year as a safety net: patients were protected by close trainee supervision and 'sign off' to prevent errors; trainees were provided with a safe environment for learning on the job; (2) Implications for undergraduate medical education: if the proposal was accepted, a 'radical review' of undergraduate curricula would be needed; undergraduate education might need to be longer; (3) Implications for F1 work practice: steps to protect healthcare team integration and ensure that F1 doctors stay within competency limits would be required; (4) Financial, structural and political implications: there would be cost implications for trainees; clarification of responsibilities between undergraduate and postgraduate medical education would be needed. Typically, each theme comprised arguments for and against the proposal.

CONCLUSIONS: A policy change to align the timing of full registration with graduation would require considerable planning and preliminary work. These findings will inform policymakers' decision-making. Regardless of the decision, medical students should take on greater responsibility for patient care as undergraduates, assessment methods in clinical practice and professionalism domains need development, and good practice in postgraduate supervision and support must be shared.