Is Early Warning Effective for the Improvement of Problem Solving and Project Performance?

Since the first launch of the new engineering contract (NEC) in 1993, early warning of problems has been widely recognized as an important approach of proactive management during a construction or engineering project. Is early warning really effective for the improvement of problem solving and project performance? This is a research question that still lacks a good answer. For this reason, an empirical investigation was made in the United Kingdom (U.K.) to answer the question. This study adopts a combination of literature review, expert interview, and questionnaire survey. Nearly 100 questionnaire responses were collected from the U.K. construction industry, based on which the use of early warning under different forms of contract is compared in this paper. Problem solving and project performance are further compared between the projects using early warning and the projects not using early warning. The comparison provides clear evidence for the significant effect of early warning on problem solving and project performance in terms of time, cost, and quality. Subsequently, an input-process-output model is developed in this paper to explore the relationship among early warning, problem solving, and project
performance. All these help construction researchers and practitioners to better understand the role of early warning in ensuring project success.

SOLVING THE INHOMOGENEOUS SCHRODINGER-EQUATION ON A BIDIRECTIONAL PIPELINE OF TRANSPUTERS

In this paper we describe the design of a parallel solution of the inhomogeneous Schrodinger equation, which arises in the construction of continuum orbitals in the R-matrix theory of atomic continuum processes. A prototype system is described which has been programmed in occam2 and implemented on a bi-directional pipeline of transputers. Some timing results for the prototype system are presented, and the development of a full production system is discussed.

On the complexity of solving polytree-shaped limited memory influence diagrams with binary variables

Influence diagrams are intuitive and concise representations of structured decision problems. When the problem is non-Markovian, an optimal strategy can be exponentially large in the size of the diagram. We can avoid the inherent intractability by constraining the size of admissible strategies, giving rise to limited memory influence diagrams. A valuable question is then how small do strategies need to be to enable efficient optimal planning. Arguably, the smallest strategies one can conceive simply prescribe an action for each time step, without considering past decisions or observations. Previous work has shown that finding such optimal strategies even for polytree-shaped diagrams with ternary variables and a single value node is NP-hard, but the case of binary variables was left open. In this paper we address such a case, by first noting that optimal strategies can be obtained in polynomial time for polytree-shaped diagrams with binary variables and a single value node. We then show that the same problem is NP-hard if the diagram has multiple value nodes. These two results close the fixed-parameter complexity analysis of optimal strategy selection in influence diagrams parametrized by the shape of the diagram, the number of value nodes and the maximum variable cardinality.

Solving Decision Problems with Limited Information

We present a new algorithm for exactly solving decision-making problems represented as an influence diagram. We do not require the usual assumptions of no forgetting and regularity, which allows us to solve problems with limited information. The algorithm, which implements a sophisticated variable elimination procedure, is empirically shown to outperform a state-of-the-art algorithm in randomly generated problems of up to 150 variables and 10^64 strategies.

Solving Limited Memory Influence Diagrams

We present a new algorithm for exactly solving decision making problems represented as influence diagrams. We do not require the usual assumptions of no forgetting and regularity; this allows us to solve problems with simultaneous decisions and limited information. The algorithm is empirically shown to outperform a state-of-the-art algorithm on randomly generated problems of up to 150 variables and 10^64 solutions. We show that these problems are NP-hard even if the underlying graph structure of the problem has low treewidth and the variables take on a bounded number of states, and that they admit no provably good approximation if variables can take on an arbitrary number of states.

Solving Limited Memory Influence Diagrams

We present a new algorithm for exactly solving decision making problems represented as influence diagrams. We do not require the usual assumptions of no forgetting and regularity; this allows us to solve problems with simultaneous decisions and limited information. The algorithm is empirically shown to outperform a state-of-the-art algorithm on randomly generated problems of up to 150 variables and 10^64 solutions. We show that the problem is NP-hard even if the underlying graph structure of the problem has small treewidth and the variables take on a bounded number of states, but that a fully polynomial time approximation scheme exists for these cases. Moreover, we show that the bound on the number of states is a necessary condition for any efficient approximation scheme.

The Complexity of Approximately Solving Influence Diagrams

Influence diagrams allow for intuitive and yet precise description of complex situations involving decision making under uncertainty. Unfortunately, most of the problems described by influence diagrams are hard to solve. In this paper we discuss the complexity of approximately solving influence diagrams. We do not assume no-forgetting or regularity, which makes the class of problems we address very broad. Remarkably, we show that when both the treewidth and the cardinality of the variables are bounded the problem admits a fully polynomial-time approximation scheme.

"Should I prioritize medical problem solving or attentive listening?": the dilemmas and challenges that medical students experience when learning to conduct consultations

Objective: Communication skills can be trained alongside clinical reasoning, history taking or clinical examination skills. This is advocated as a solution to the low transfer of communication skills. Still, students have to integrate the knowledge/skills acquired during different curriculum parts in patient consultations at some point. How do medical students experience these integrated consultations within a simulated environment and in real practice when dealing with responsibility?

Methods: Six focus groups were conducted with (pre-)/clerkship students.

Results: Students were motivated to practice integrated consultations with simulated patients and felt like 'real physicians'. However, their focus on medical problem solving drew attention away from improving their communication skills. Responsibility for real patients triggered students' identity development. This identity formation guided the development of an own consultation style, a process that was hampered by conflicting demands of role models.

Conclusion: Practicing complete consultations results in the dilemma of prioritizing medical problem solving above attention for patient communication. Integrated consultation training advances this dilemma to the pre-clerkship period. During clerkships this dilemma is heightened because real patients trigger empathy and responsibility, which invites students to define their role as doctor.

Practice Implications: When training integrated consultations, educators should pay attention to students' learning priorities and support the development of students' professional identity.

Anytime Algorithms for Solving Possibilistic MDPs and Hybrid MDPs

The ability of an agent to make quick, rational decisions in an uncertain environment is paramount for its applicability in realistic settings. Markov Decision Processes (MDP) provide such a framework, but can only model uncertainty that can be expressed as probabilities. Possibilistic counterparts of MDPs allow to model imprecise beliefs, yet they cannot accurately represent probabilistic sources of uncertainty and they lack the efficient online solvers found in the probabilistic MDP community. In this paper we advance the state of the art in three important ways. Firstly, we propose the first online planner for possibilistic MDP by adapting the Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithm. A key component is the development of efficient search structures to sample possibility distributions based on the DPY transformation as introduced by Dubois, Prade, and Yager. Secondly, we introduce a hybrid MDP model that allows us to express both possibilistic and probabilistic uncertainty, where the hybrid model is a proper extension of both probabilistic and possibilistic MDPs. Thirdly, we demonstrate that MCTS algorithms can readily be applied to solve such hybrid models.

Exact and heuristic methods for solving Boolean games

Boolean games are a framework for reasoning about the rational behavior of agents whose goals are formalized using propositional formulas. Compared to normal form games, a well-studied and related game framework, Boolean games allow for an intuitive and more compact representation of the agents’ goals. So far, Boolean games have been mainly studied in the literature from the Knowledge Representation perspective, and less attention has been paid on the algorithmic issues underlying the computation of solution concepts. Although some suggestions for solving specific classes of Boolean games have been made in the literature, there is currently no work available on the practical performance. In this paper, we propose the first technique to solve general Boolean games that does not require an exponential translation to normal-form games. Our method is based on disjunctive answer set programming and computes solutions (equilibria) of arbitrary Boolean games. It can be applied to a wide variety of solution concepts, and can naturally deal with extensions of Boolean games such as constraints and costs. We present detailed experimental results in which we compare the proposed method against a number of existing methods for solving specific classes of Boolean games, as well as adaptations of methods that were initially designed for normal-form games. We found that the heuristic methods that do not require all payoff matrix entries performed well for smaller Boolean games, while our ASP based technique is faster when the problem instances have a higher number of agents or action variables.

Using Answer Set Programming for Solving Boolean Games

Boolean games are a framework for reasoning about the rational behaviour of agents, whose goals are formalized using propositional formulas. They offer an attractive alternative to normal-form games, because they allow for a more intuitive and more compact encoding. Unfortunately, however, there is currently no general, tailor-made method available to compute the equilibria of Boolean games. In this paper, we introduce a method for finding the pure Nash equilibria based on disjunctive answer set programming. Our method is furthermore capable of finding the core elements and the Pareto optimal equilibria, and can easily be modified to support other forms of optimality, thanks to the declarative nature of disjunctive answer set programming. Experimental results clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.