Uncertainty, learning and growth

The paper extends Blackburn and Galindev's (Economics Letters, Vol. 79 (2003), pp. 417-421) stochastic growth model in which productivity growth entails both external and internal learning behaviour with a constant relative risk aversion utility function and productivity shocks. Consequently, the relationship between long-term growth and short-term volatility depends not only on the relative importance of each learning mechanism but also on a parameter measuring individuals' attitude towards risk.

Using simulation to assess cardiac first-responder schemes exhibiting stochastic and spatial complexities

A Monte-Carlo simulation-based model has been constructed to assess a public health scheme involving mobile-volunteer cardiac First-Responders. The scheme being assessed aims to improve survival of Sudden-Cardiac-Arrest (SCA) patients, through reducing the time until administration of life-saving defibrillation treatment, with volunteers being paged to respond to possible SCA incidents alongside the Emergency Medical Services. The need for a model, for example, to assess the impact of the scheme in different geographical regions, was apparent upon collection of observational trial data (given it exhibited stochastic and spatial complexities). The simulation-based model developed has been validated and then used to assess the scheme's benefits in an alternative rural region (not a part of the original trial). These illustrative results conclude that the scheme may not be the most efficient use of National Health Service resources in this geographical region, thus demonstrating the importance and usefulness of simulation modelling in aiding decision making.

Stochastic Sznajd Model in open community

We extend the Sznajd Model for opinion formation by introducing persuasion probabilities for opinions. Moreover, we couple the system to an environment which mimics the application of the opinion. This results in a feedback, representing single-state opinion transitions in opposite to the two-state opinion transitions for persuading other people. We call this model opinion formation in an open community (OFOC). It can be seen as "stochastic extension of the Sznajd model for an open community, because it allows for "special choice of parameters to recover the original Sznajd model. We demonstrate the effect of feedback in the OFOC model by applying it to a scenario in which, e.g., opinion B is worse then opinion A but easier explained to other people. Casually formulated we analyzed the question, how much better one has to be, in order to persuade other people, provided the opinion is worse. Our results reveal a linear relation between the transition probability for opinion B and the influence of the environment on B.

Received signal strength in large-scale wireless relay sensor network: a stochastic ray approach

The authors consider a point percolation lattice representation of a large-scale wireless relay sensor network (WRSN) deployed in a cluttered environment. Each relay sensor corresponds to a grid point in the random lattice and the signal sent by the source is modelled as an ensemble of photons that spread in the space, which may 'hit' other sensors and are 'scattered' around. At each hit, the relay node forwards the received signal to its nearest neighbour through direction-selective relaying. The authors first derive the distribution that a relay path reaches a prescribed location after undergoing certain number of hops. Subsequently, a closed-form expression of the average received signal strength (RSS) at the destination can be computed as the summation of all signal echoes' energy. Finally, the effect of the anomalous diffusion exponent ß on the mean RSS in a WRSN is studied, for which it is found that the RSS scaling exponent e is given by (3ß-1)/ß. The results would provide useful insight into the design and deployment of large-scale WRSNs in future. © 2011 The Institution of Engineering and Technology.