Inference in Polytrees with Sets of Probabilities

Inferences in directed acyclic graphs associated with probability intervals and sets of probabilities are NP-hard, even for polytrees. We propose: 1) an improvement on Tessem’s A/R algorithm for inferences on polytrees associated with probability intervals; 2) a new algorithm for approximate inferences based on local search; 3) branch-and-bound algorithms that combine the previous techniques. The first two algorithms produce complementary approximate solutions, while branch-and-bound procedures can generate either exact or approximate solutions. We report improvements on existing techniques for inference with probability sets and intervals, in some cases reducing computational effort by several orders of magnitude.

Criminal Conversations: Rogues, Words and the World in the Work of Daniel Defoe

Even as Daniel Defoe's roguish protagonists notably Moll Flanders and Colonel Jack try to separate themselves from illicit itinerants, they are implicated further in deviance. Moll and Jack both embody and exploit ambiguous moral and spatial arrangements, and use hybrid linguistic formulations, all of which collocate the roguish and the reputable. By brilliantly realizing this interpenetration of words and worlds, Defoe problematises eighteenth-century efforts to demarcate the illicit and itinerant along the lines of space, rank, gender and language. Such efforts facilitated deviant mobility as much as they demonised it. Much scholarship has attended to Defoe's representations of criminality and poverty. This article develops such research to re-position him in a tradition of rogue-writing that stylishly problematises normative discriminatory practices.

Exploring eye movement analysis as a measure of selective visual attention in brain injured individuals

Primary Objective: To investigate the utility of using a new method of assessment for deficits in selective visual attention (SVA). Methods and Procedures: An independent groups design compared six participants with brain injuries with six participants from a non-brain injured control group. The Sensomotoric Instruments Eye Movement system with remote eye-tracking device (eye camera), and 2 sets of eight stimuli were employed to determine if the camera would be a sensitive discriminator of SVA in these groups. Main Outcomes and Results: The attention profile displayed by the brain injured group showed that they were slower, made more errors, were less accurate, and more indecisive than the control group. Conclusions: The utility of eye movement analysis as an assessment method was established, with implications for rehabilitation requiring further development. Key words: selective visual attention, eye movement analysis, brain injury

Dazed and Confused: Accidental Mixtures of Goods and the Theory of Acquisition of Title

This paper explores the law of accidental mixtures of goods. It traces the development of the English rules on mixture from the seminal nineteenth century case of Spence v Union Marine Insurance Co to the present day, and compares their responses to those given by the Roman law, which always has been claimed as an influence on our jurisprudence in this area. It is argued that the different answers given by English and Roman law to essentially the same problems of title result from the differing bases of these legal systems. Roman a priori theory is contrasted with the more practical reasoning of the common law, and while both sets of rules are judged to be coherent on their own terms, it is suggested that the difference between them is reflective of a more general philosophical disagreement about the proper functioning of a legal system, and the relative importance of theoretical and pragmatic considerations.

Making Risk Visible. The role of images in the assessment of (cancer) genetic risk

Whilst analysis of 'risk' (in its many conceptual shapes) has loomed large in both medicine and social sciences over the past 25 years, detailed investigations as to how risk assessments are actually put together (in either lay or professional contexts) are few in number. The studies that are available usually focus on the use of words or everyday conversation in assembling risk. Talking about risk is, of course, important, but what tends to be ignored is the fact that risk can be and is often made visible. For example, it can be made visible through the use of tables, charts, diagrams and various kinds of sophisticated laboratory images. This paper concentrates on the role of such images in the context of a cancer genetics clinic and its associated laboratory. Precisely how these images are tied into the production of risk estimates, how professionals discuss and use such images in clinical work, and how professionals reference them to display facts about risk is the focus of the paper. The paper concludes by highlighting the significance of different kinds of visibility for an understanding of genetic abnormalities and how such differences might impact on the attempts of lay people to get to grips with risk.

Extracting Policy Positions from Political Texts Using words as Data

We present a new way of extracting policy positions from political texts that treats texts not as discourses to be understood and interpreted but rather, as data in the form of words. We compare this approach to previous methods of text analysis and use it to replicate published estimates of the policy positions of political parties in Britain and Ireland, on both economic and social policy dimensions. We “export” the method to a non-English-language environment, analyzing the policy positions of German parties, including the PDS as it entered the former West German party system. Finally, we extend its application beyond the analysis of party manifestos, to the estimation of political positions from legislative speeches. Our “language-blind” word scoring technique successfully replicates published policy estimates without the substantial costs of time and labor that these require. Furthermore, unlike in any previous method for extracting policy positions from political texts, we provide uncertainty measures for our estimates, allowing analysts to make informed judgments of the extent to which differences between two estimated policy positions can be viewed as significant or merely as products of measurement error.

The electron impact ionization of magnesium (2p)

A systematic study of the triple differential cross section for the electron impact ionization of magnesium is presented. Complete sets of theoretical results using both the first Born and the distorted wave Bom approximation are given for a range of asymmetric kinematical regimes. How the physical significance of the different approximations enter the character of the cross sections will be explicitly demonstrated. Comparison is made with experiments of the Maryland group and suggestions are made for new experiments.

Differential Modulation of Transcriptional Activity of Estrogen Receptors by Direct Protein-Protein Interactions with the T Cell Factor Family of Transcription Factors

Two major signaling pathways, those triggered by estrogen (E(2)) and by the Wnt family, interact in the breast to cause growth and differentiation. The estrogen receptors ER(alpha) and ER(beta) are activated by binding E(2) and act as ligand-dependent transcription factors. The effector for the Wnt family is the Tcf family of transcription factors. Both sets of transcription factors recognize discrete but different nucleotide sequences in the promoters of their target genes. By using transient transfections of reporter constructs for the osteopontin and thymidine kinase promoters in rat mammary cells, we show that Tcf-4 antagonizes and Tcf-1 stimulates the effects of activated ER/E(2). For mutants of the former promoter, the stimulatory effects of ER(alpha)/E(2) can be made to be dependent on Tcf-1, and for the latter promoter the effects of the T cell factors (TCFs) are dependent on ER/E(2). Direct interaction between ERs and Tcfs either at the Tcf/ER(alpha)-binding site on the DNA or in the absence of DNA is established by gel retardation assays or by coimmunoprecipitation/biosensor methods, respectively. These results show that the two sets of transcription factors can interact directly, the interaction between ERs and Tcf-4 being antagonistic and that between ERs and Tcf-1 being synergistic on the activity of the promoters employed. Since Tcf-4 is the major Tcf family member in the breast, it is suggested that the antagonistic interaction is normally dominant in vivo in this tissue.

Surface properties of Rosetta's targets (21) Lutetia and (2867) Steins from ESO observations

Aims. The aim of this work is to constrain the size, composition and surface properties of asteroids (2867) Steins and (21) Lutetia, targets of the Rosetta mission. Rosetta is en route to rendezvous with comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko.

Methods. Thermal-Infrared N-band observations for Lutetia and Steins were obtained using, respectively, TIMMI2 on the ESO 3.6-m telescope at La Silla and VISIR at the UT3 VLT telescope on Cerro Paranal; visible light curves for Steins were obtained using NTT+SUSI2, while R-band photometry for Lutetia was obtained with the 2.0-m Faulkes Telescope North on Haleakala. For Steins, the NEATM model was used to constrain its visible geometric albedo and beaming parameter. A detailed thermophysical model was implemented and used to analyze our set of observations of Lutetia as well as previous reported measurements.

Results. The visible photometry of Steins was used along with data from the literature to yield a slope parameter of G=0.32(-0.11)(+0.14). Problems during the observations led to the loss of measurements on two of the three N-band filters requested for Steins. Using the remaining data and the polarimetric albedo recently published, we were able to constrain the thermal beaming parameter as eta > 1.2, which is more similar to near-Earth asteroids and suggests either high thermal inertia or a very rough surface. For Lutetia, the best fit visible geometric albedo obtained with our model and the reported observation is p(nu)=0.129, significantly lower than that obtained if one applies the same model to previously reported measurements. The discrepancy cannot be explained solely by assuming inhomogeneities in the surface properties and we suggest that the most plausible explanation is the presence of one or more large craters on the northern hemisphere. For both sets of measurements, the implied single scattering albedo of Lutetia is compatible with laboratory measurements of carbonaceous chondrite meteorites.

A new Jacobian matrix for optimal learning of single-layer neural networks

This paper investigates the learning of a wide class of single-hidden-layer feedforward neural networks (SLFNs) with two sets of adjustable parameters, i.e., the nonlinear parameters in the hidden nodes and the linear output weights. The main objective is to both speed up the convergence of second-order learning algorithms such as Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), as well as to improve the network performance. This is achieved here by reducing the dimension of the solution space and by introducing a new Jacobian matrix. Unlike conventional supervised learning methods which optimize these two sets of parameters simultaneously, the linear output weights are first converted into dependent parameters, thereby removing the need for their explicit computation. Consequently, the neural network (NN) learning is performed over a solution space of reduced dimension. A new Jacobian matrix is then proposed for use with the popular second-order learning methods in order to achieve a more accurate approximation of the cost function. The efficacy of the proposed method is shown through an analysis of the computational complexity and by presenting simulation results from four different examples.

Identification and characterization of 10 polymorphic microsatellite loci in the German cockroach, Blattella germanica

Primer sequences and initial characterization are presented for 10 microsatellite loci isolated from the German cockroach, Blattella germanica. In a sample of 30 individuals from a single population sample, all loci were polymorphic with two to 12 alleles segregating per locus and levels of observed heterozygosity ranging from 0.27 to 0.92. One locus showed a deficit of heterozygotes. Experimental conditions are described for polymerase chain reaction multiplexing, which enables the genotyping of eight loci in three electrophoretic runs consisting of one set of three and two sets of two markers. Seven primer sets cross-amplify in the related Blattella asahinai.

Effect of pH, temperature, and moisture on the formation of volatile compounds in glycine/glucose model systems

Mixtures of glycine, glucose, and starch were extrusion cooked using sodium hydroxide at 0, 3, and 6 g/L of extruder water feed, 18% moisture, and 120, 150, and 180 degreesC target die temperatures, giving extrudates with pH values of 5.6, 6.8, and 7.4. Freeze-dried equimolar solutions of glucose and glycine were heated either dry or after equilibration to similar to 13% moisture at 180 degreesC in a reaction-tube system designed to mimic the heating profile in an extruder. Volatile compounds were isolated onto Tenax and analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. For the extrudates, total yields of volatiles increased with decreasing pH at 180 degreesC, reached a maximum at pH 6.S at 150 degreesC, and increased with increasing pH at 120 degreesC. Amounts increased with temperature at all pH values. Pyrazines were the most abundant class for all sets of conditions (54-79% of total volatiles). Pyrroles, ketones, furans, oxazoles, and pyridines were also identified. Yields of volatiles from the reaction-tube samples increased by > 60% in the moist system. Levels of individual classes also increased in the presence of moisture, except pyrazines, which decreased similar to3.5-fold. Twenty-one of the compounds were common to the reaction-tube samples and the extrudates.

The unit ball of the complex P(3H)

Let H be a two-dimensional complex Hilbert space and P(3H) the space of 3-homogeneous polynomials on H. We give a characterization of the extreme points of its unit ball, P(3H), from which we deduce that the unit sphere of P(3H) is the disjoint union of the sets of its extreme and smooth points. We also show that an extreme point of P(3H) remains extreme as considered as an element of L(3H). Finally we make a few remarks about the geometry of the unit ball of the predual of P(3H) and give a characterization of its smooth points.

Developing a conceptual model of lead performance measurement and benchmarking: A multiple case analysis

Purpose: Environmental turbulence including rapid changes in technology and markets has resulted in the need for new approaches to performance measurement and benchmarking. There is a need for studies that attempt to measure and benchmark upstream, leading or developmental aspects of organizations. Therefore, the aim of this paper is twofold. The first is to conduct an in-depth case analysis of lead performance measurement and benchmarking leading to the further development of a conceptual model derived from the extant literature and initial survey data. The second is to outline future research agendas that could further develop the framework and the subject area.

Design/methodology/approach: A multiple case analysis involving repeated in-depth interviews with managers in organisational areas of upstream influence in the case organisations.

Findings: It was found that the effect of external drivers for lead performance measurement and benchmarking was mediated by organisational context factors such as level of progression in business improvement methods. Moreover, the legitimation of the business improvement methods used for this purpose, although typical, had been extended beyond their original purpose with the development of bespoke sets of lead measures.

Practical implications: Examples of methods and lead measures are given that can be used by organizations in developing a programme of lead performance measurement and benchmarking.

Originality/value: There is a paucity of in-depth studies relating to the theory and practice of lead performance measurement and benchmarking in organisations.

Comparisons, mental models, and the action effect in judgments of regret

People tend to attribute more regret to a character who has decided to take action and experienced a negative outcome than to one who has decided not to act and experienced a negative outcome. For some decisions, however, this finding is not observed in a between-participants design and thus appears to rely on comparisons between people's representations of action and their representations of inaction. In this article, we outline a mental models account that explains findings from studies that have used within- and between-participants designs, and we suggest that, for decisions with uncertain counterfactual outcomes, information about the consequences of a decision to act causes people to flesh out their representation of the counterfactual states of affairs for inaction. In three experiments, we confirm our predictions about participants' fleshing out of representations, demonstrating that an action effect occurs only when information about the consequences of action is available to participants as they rate the nonactor and when this information about action is informative with respect to judgments about inaction. It is important to note that the action effect always occurs when the decision scenario specifies certain counterfactual outcomes. These results suggest that people sometimes base their attributions of regret on comparisons among different sets of mental models.