Testing solar forcing of pervasive Holocene climate cycles

The temporal and spatial extent of Holocene climate change is an area of considerable uncertainty, with solar forcing recently proposed to be the origin of cycles identified in the North Atlantic region. To address these issues we have developed an annually resolved record of changes in Irish bog tree populations over the last 7468 years which, together with radiocarbon-dated bog and lake-edge populations, extend the dataset back to 9000 yr ago. The Irish trees underpin the internationally accepted radiocarbon calibration curve, used to derive a proxy of solar activity, and allow us to test solar forcing of Holocene climate change. Tree populations and age structures provide unambiguous evidence of major shifts in Holocene surface moisture, with a dominant cyclicity of 800 yr, similar to marine cycles in the North Atlantic, indicating significant changes in the latitude and intensity of zonal atmospheric circulation across the region. The cycles, however, are not coherent with changes in solar activity (both being on the same absolute timescale), indicating that Holocene North Atlantic climate variability at the millennial and centennial scale is not driven by a linear response to changes in solar activity.

Changes in solar activity and Holocene climatic shifts derived from C-14 wiggle-match dated peat deposits

Closely spaced sequences of accelerator mass spectrometer (AMS) C-14 dates of peat deposits display century-scale wiggles which can be fitted to the radiocarbon calibration curve. By wiggle-matching such sequences, high-precision calendar age chronologies can be generated which show that changes in mire surface wetness during the Bronze Age/Iron Age transition (c. 850 cal. BC) and the 'Little Ice Age' (Wolf, Sporer, Maunder and Dalton Minima) occurred during periods of suddenly increasing atmospheric concentration of C-14. Replicate evidence from peat-based proxy climate indicators in northwest Europe suggest these changes in climate may have been driven by temporary declines of solar activity. Carbon-accumulation rates of two raised peat bogs in the UK and Denmark record low values during the 'Little Ice Age' which reflects reduced primary productivity of the peat-forming vegetation during these periods of climatic deterioration.

Debates over Palaeolithic chronology - the reliability of C-14 is confirmed

The debate about the complex issues of human development during the Middle to Upper Palaeolithic transition period (45-35 ka BP) has been hampered by concerns about the reliability of the radiocarbon dating method. Large C-14 anomalies were postulated and radiocarbon dating was considered flawed. We show here that these issues are no longer relevant, because the large anomalies are artefacts beyond plausible physical limits for their magnitude. Previous inconsistencies between C-14 radiocarbon datasets have been resolved, and a new radiocarbon calibration curve, IntCal09 (Reimer et al., 2009), was created. Improved procedures for bone collagen extraction and charcoal pre-treatment generally result in older ages, consistent with independently dated time markers. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Statistics sunspots and settlement: Influences on sum of probability curves

Large data sets of radiocarbon dates are becoming a more common feature of archaeological research. The sheer numbers of radiocarbon dates produced, however, raise issues of representation and interpretation. This paper presents a methodology which both reduces the visible impact of dating fluctuations, but also takes into consideration the influence of the underlying radiocarbon calibration curve. By doing so, it may be possible to distinguish between periods of human activity in early medieval Ireland and the statistical tails produced by radiocarbon calibration.

Composite hunting technologies from the Terminal Pleistocene and Early Holocene, Niah Cave, Borneo

Renewed archaeological investigation of the West Mouth of Niah Cave, Borneo has demonstrated that even within lowland equatorial environments depositional conditions do exist where organic remains of late glacial and early post-glacial age can be preserved. Excavations by the Niah Cave Research Project (NCP) (2000-2003) towards the rear of the archaeological reserve produced several bone points and worked stingray spines, which exhibit evidence of hafting mastic and fibrous binding still adhering to their shafts. The position of both gives strong indication of how these cartilaginous points were hafted and gives insight into their potential function. These artefacts were recovered from secure and (14)C dated stratigraphic horizons. The results of this study have implications for our understanding the function of the Terminal Pleistocene and Early Holocene bone tools recovered from other regions of Island Southeast Asia. They demonstrate that by the end the Pleistocene rainforest foragers in Borneo were producing composite technologies that probably included fishing leisters and potentially the bow and arrow. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The 'human revolution' in lowland tropical Southeast Asia:the antiquity and behavior of anatomically modern humans at Niah Cave (Sarawak, Borneo)

Recent research in Europe, Africa, and Southeast Asia suggests that we can no longer assume a direct and exclusive link between anatomically modern humans and behavioral modernity (the 'human revolution'), and assume that the presence of either one implies the presence of the other: discussions of the emergence of cultural complexity have to proceed with greater scrutiny of the evidence on a site-by-site basis to establish secure associations between the archaeology present there and the hominins who created it. This paper presents one such case study: Niah Cave in Sarawak on the island of Borneo, famous for the discovery in 1958 in the West Mouth of the Great Cave of a modern human skull, the 'Deep Skull,' controversially associated with radiocarbon dates of ca. 40,000 years before the present. A new chronostratigraphy has been developed through a re-investigation of the lithostratigraphy left by the earlier excavations, AMS-dating using three different comparative pre-treatments including ABOX of charcoal, and U-series using the Diffusion-Absorption model applied to fragments of bones from the Deep Skull itself. Stratigraphic reasons for earlier uncertainties about the antiquity of the skull are examined, and it is shown not to be an `intrusive' artifact. It was probably excavated from fluvial-pond-desiccation deposits that accumulated episodically in a shallow basin immediately behind the cave entrance lip, in a climate that ranged from times of comparative aridity with complete desiccation, to episodes of greater surface wetness, changes attributed to regional climatic fluctuations. Vegetation outside the cave varied significantly over time, including wet lowland forest, montane forest, savannah, and grassland. The new dates and the lithostratigraphy relate the Deep Skull to evidence of episodes of human activity that range in date from ca. 46,000 to ca. 34,000 years ago. Initial investigations of sediment scorching, pollen, palynomorphs, phytoliths, plant macrofossils, and starch grains recovered from existing exposures, and of vertebrates from the current and the earlier excavations, suggest that human foraging during these times was marked by habitat-tailored hunting technologies, the collection and processing of toxic plants for consumption, and, perhaps, the use of fire at some forest-edges. The Niah evidence demonstrates the sophisticated nature of the subsistence behavior developed by modern humans to exploit the tropical environments that they encountered in Southeast Asia, including rainforest. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Asynchrony in key Holocene chronologies: Evidence from Irish bog pines

The Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05) and the radiocarbon calibration curve (IntCal) are the foremost time scales used in paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental studies of the most recent 10 k.y. Due to varying and often insufficient dating resolution, opportunities to test the synchrony of these two influential chronologies are rare. Here we present evidence for a phase of major pine recruitment on Irish bogs at ca. 8160 yr B.P. Dendrochronological dating of subfossil trees from three sites reveals synchronicity in germination across the study area, indicative of a regional forcing. The concurrent colonization of pine on peatland is interpreted in terms of drier surface conditions and provides the first substantive proxy data in support of a significant hydroclimatic change in the north of Ireland accompanying the 8.2 ka climate cooling event. The date of pine establishment does not overlap with the GICC05 age range for the event, and possible lags between responses are unlikely to explain the full difference. In light of recent studies highlighting a possible offset in GICC05 and IntCal dates, the Irish pine record supports the notion of ice core dates being too early during the period of study. If the suggested discrepancy in timing is an artifact of chronological error, it is likely to have affected interpretations of previous proxy comparisons and alignments.

Progress towards improving chronologies for marine sediment records.

The North Atlantic has played a key role in abrupt climate changes due to the sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to the location and strength of deep water formation. It is crucial for modelling future climate change to understand the role of the AMOC in the rapid warming and gradual cooling cycles known as Dansgaard-Oescher (DO) events which are recorded in the Greenland ice cores. However, palaeoceanographic research into DO events has been hampered by the uncertainty in timing due largely to the lack of a precise chronological time frame for marine records. While tephrochronology provides links to the Greenland ice core records at a few points, radiocarbon remains the primary dating method for most marine cores. Due to variations in the atmospheric and oceanic 14C concentration, radiocarbon ages must be calibrated to provide calendric ages. The IntCal Working Group provides a global estimate of ocean 14C ages for calibration of marine radiocarbon dates, but the variability of the surface marine reservoir age in the North Atlantic particularly during Heinrich or DO events, makes calibration uncertain. In addition, the current Marine09 radiocarbon calibration beyond around 15 ka BP is largely based on 'tuning' to the Hulu Cave isotope record, so that the timing of events may not be entirely synchronous with the Greenland ice cores. The use of event-stratigraphy and independent chronological markers such as tephra provide the scope to improve marine radiocarbon reservoir age estimates particularly in the North Atlantic where a number of tephra horizons have been identified in both marine sediments and the Greenland ice cores. Quantification of timescale uncertainties is critical but statistical techniques which can take into account the differential dating between events can improve the precision. Such techniques should make it possible to develop specific marine calibration curves for selected regions.

An on-line application for ΔR calculation

A regional offset (ΔR) from the marine radiocarbon calibration curve is widely used in calibration software (eg CALIB, OxCal) but often is not calculated correctly. While relatively straightforward for known age samples, such as mollusks from museum collections or banded corals, it is more difficult to calculate ΔR and the uncertainty in ΔR for 14C dates on paired marine and terrestrial samples. Previous researchers have often utilized classical intercept methods (Reimer et al. 2002; Dewar et al. 2012, Russell et al. 2011) but this does not account for the full calibrated probability density function (PDF). We have developed an on-line application for performing these calculations for known age, paired marine and terrestrial 14C dates, or U-Th dated corals which is available at http://calib.qub.ac.uk/deltar

Stable oxygen isotopes in irish oaks: potential for reconstructing local and regional climate

The long Irish oak tree-ring chronology, developed for archaeological dating and radiocarbon calibration, is the longest of any in northwest maritime Europe, spanning most of the Holocene (7,272 years). Unfortunately, the rings widths do not carry a strong climate signal and the record hasnever been satisfactorily applied for dendroclimatic reconstruction. This pilot study explores the potential for extracting a climate signal from Irish oaks by comparing the stable oxygen isotopes ratios from 10 oak tree cores (Quercus robur and Quercus petraea L.) collected across the Armagh region of NE Ireland with local and regional climatic and stable isotopic data. Statistically significant correlations between isotope ratios and the amount of summer precipitation (r = -0.44) point to the isotopic composition of summer rainfall as the dominant signal. Including the Armagh data into an extended regional oxygen isotope series did not reduce the correlation coefficient with regional precipitation (r = -0.68, p < 0.01). Correlations of this magnitude in dendro-hydroclimatology are typically restricted to trees growing at their ecological limits. This research suggests that there is considerable potential for including living trees and ancient timbers from Ireland into a regional composite to reconstruct the summer hydroclimate of Britain and Ireland.

Calibration of the Radiocarbon Time Scale for the Southern Hemisphere: AD 1850-950

We have conducted a series of radiocarbon measurements on decadal samples of dendrochronologically dated wood from both hemispheres, spanning 1000 years (McCormac et al. 1998; Hogg et al. this issue). Using the data presented in Hogg et al., we show that during the period AD 950-1850 the 14C offset between the hemispheres is not constant, but varies periodically (~130 yr periodicity) with amplitudes varying between 1 and 10‰ (i.e. 8-80 yr), with a consequent effect on the 14C calibration of material from the Southern Hemisphere. A large increase in the offset occurs between AD 1245 and 1355. In this paper, we present a Southern Hemisphere high-precision calibration data set (SHCal02) that comprises measurements from New Zealand, Chile, and South Africa. This data, and a new value of 41 ± 14 yr for correction of the IntCal98 data for the period outside the range given here, is proposed for use in calibrating Southern Hemisphere 14C dates.

IntCal04 terrestrial radiocarbon age calibration, 0-26 cal kyr BP

A new calibration curve for the conversion of radiocarbon ages to calibrated (cal) ages has been constructed and internationally ratified to replace IntCal98, which extended from 0-24 cal kyr BP (Before Present, 0 cal BP = AD 1950). The new calibration data set for terrestrial samples extends from 0-26 cal kyr BP, but with much higher resolution beyond 11.4 cal kyr BP than IntCal98. Dendrochronologically-dated tree-ring samples cover the period from 0-12.4 cal kyr BP. Beyond the end of the tree rings, data from marine records (corals and foraminifera) are converted to the atmospheric equivalent with a site-specific marine reservoir correction to provide terrestrial calibration from 12.4-26.0 cal kyr BP. A substantial enhancement relative to IntCal98 is the introduction of a coherent statistical approach based on a random walk model, which takes into account the uncertainty in both the calendar age and the (super 14) C age to calculate the underlying calibration curve (Buck and Blackwell, this issue). The tree-ring data sets, sources of uncertainty, and regional offsets are discussed here. The marine data sets and calibration curve for marine samples from the surface mixed layer (Marine04) are discussed in brief, but details are presented in Hughen et al. (this issue a). We do not make a recommendation for calibration beyond 26 cal kyr BP at this time; however, potential calibration data sets are compared in another paper (van der Plicht et al., this issue).

REporting and calibration of post-bomb C-14 data

The definitive paper by Stuiver and Polach (1977) established the conventions for reporting of 14C data for chronological and geophysical studies based on the radioactive decay of 14C in the sample since the year of sample death or formation. Several ways of reporting 14C activity levels relative to a standard were also established, but no specific instructions were given for reporting nuclear weapons testing (post-bomb) 14C levels in samples. Because the use of post-bomb 14C is becoming more prevalent in forensics, biology, and geosciences, a convention needs to be adopted. We advocate the use of fraction modern with a new symbol F14C to prevent confusion with the previously used Fm, which may or may not have been fractionation corrected. We also discuss the calibration of post-bomb 14C samples and the available datasets and compilations, but do not give a recommendation for a particular dataset.

High-precision radiocarbon measurements of contemporaneous tree-ring wood from the British Isles and New Zealand: AD 1850-950.

The University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand and The Queen's University of Belfast, Northern Ireland radiocarbon dating laboratories have undertaken a series of high-precision measurements on decadal samples of dendrochronologically dated oak (Quercus petraea) from Great Britain and cedar (Libocedrus bidwillii) and silver pine (Lagarostrobos colensoi) from New Zealand. The results show an average hemispheric offset over the 900 yr of measurement of 40±13 yr. This value is not constant but varies with a periodicity of about 130 yr. The Northern Hemisphere measurements confirm the validity of the Pearson et al. (1986) calibration dataset.

Testing the timing of radiocarbon-dated events between proxy archives

For interpreting past changes on a regional or global scale, the timings of proxy-inferred events are usually aligned with data from other locations. However, too often chronological uncertainties are ignored in proxy diagrams and multisite comparisons, making it possible for researchers to fall into the trap of sucking separate events into one illusionary event (or vice versa). Here we largely solve this "suck in and smear syndrome" for radiocarbon (14C) dated sequences. In a Bayesian framework, millions of plausible age-models are constructed to quantify the chronological uncertainties within and between proxy archives. We test the technique on replicated high-resolution 14C-dated peat cores deposited during the "Little Ice Age" (c. AD 1400-1900), a period characterized by abrupt climate changes and severe 14C calibration problems. Owing to internal variability in proxy data and uncertainties in age-models, these (and possibly many more) archives are not consistent in recording decadal climate change. Through explicit statistical tests of palaeoenvironmental hypotheses, we can move forward to systematic interpretations of proxy data. However, chronological uncertainties of non-annually resolved palaeoclimate records are too large for answering decadal timescale questions.