On the context-dependent scaling of consumer feeding rates

The stability of consumer-resource systems can depend on the form of feeding interactions (i.e. functional responses). Size-based models predict interactions - and thus stability - based on consumer-resource size ratios. However, little is known about how interaction contexts (e.g. simple or complex habitats) might alter scaling relationships. Addressing this, we experimentally measured interactions between a large size range of aquatic predators (4-6400 mg over 1347 feeding trials) and an invasive prey that transitions among habitats: from the water column (3D interactions) to simple and complex benthic substrates (2D interactions). Simple and complex substrates mediated successive reductions in capture rates - particularly around the unimodal optimum - and promoted prey population stability in model simulations. Many real consumer-resource systems transition between 2D and 3D interactions, and along complexity gradients. Thus, Context-Dependent Scaling (CDS) of feeding interactions could represent an unrecognised aspect of food webs, and quantifying the extent of CDS might enhance predictive ecology.

From PASS 1 to YES to AND logic: building parallel processing into molecular logic gates by sequential addition of receptors

The synthesis and photophysical characterization of a novel molecular logic gate 4, operating in water, is demonstrated based on the competition between. fluorescence and photoinduced electron transfer (PET). It is constructed according to a 'fluorophore-spacer-receptor(1)-spacer-receptor(2)' format where anthracene is the. fluorophore, receptor(1) is a tertiary amine and receptor(2) is a phenyliminodiacetate ligand. Using only protons and zinc cations as the chemical inputs and. fluorescence as the output, 4 is demonstrated to be both a two-input AND and INH logic gate. When 4 is examined in context to the YES logic gates 1 and 2, and the two-input AND logic gate 3 and three-input AND logic gate 5, each with one or more of the following receptors including a tertiary amine, phenyliminodiacetate or benzo-15-crown-5 ether, logic gate 4 is the missing link in the homologous series. Collectively, the molecular logic gates 1-5 corroborate the PET 'fluorophore-spacer-receptor' model using chemical inputs and a light-signal output and provide insight into controlling the. fluorescence quantum yield of future PET-based molecular logic gates.

Unfunded pension liabilities and sponsoring firm credit risk: an international analysis of corporate bond spreads

This paper tests empirically whether pension information derived by corporate pension accounting disclosures is priced in corporate bond spreads. The model represents a hybrid of more traditional accounting ratio-based models of credit risk and structural models of bond spreads initiated by Merton (1974). The model is fitted to 5 years of data from 2002 to 2006 featuring companies from the US and Europe. The paper finds that while unfunded pension liabilities are priced in the overall sample, they are not priced as aggressively as traditional leverage. Furthermore, an extended model shows that the pension–credit risk relation is most evident in the US and Germany, where unfunded pension liabilities are priced more aggressively than traditional forms of leverage. No pension–credit risk relation is found in the other countries sampled, notably the UK, Netherlands and France.

Random Regret Minimization: Exploration of a New Choice Model for Environmental and Resource Economics

This paper introduces the discrete choice model-paradigm of Random Regret Minimization (RRM) to the field of environmental and resource economics. The RRM-approach has been very recently developed in the context of travel demand modelling and presents a tractable, regret-based alternative to the dominant choice-modelling paradigm based on Random Utility Maximization-theory (RUM-theory). We highlight how RRM-based models provide closed form, logit-type formulations for choice probabilities that allow for capturing semi-compensatory behaviour and choice set-composition effects while being equally parsimonious as their utilitarian counterparts. Using data from a Stated Choice-experiment aimed at identifying valuations of characteristics of nature parks, we compare RRM-based models and RUM-based models in terms of parameter estimates, goodness of fit, elasticities and consequential policy implications.

Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling

Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

Quality Management and Managerialism in Healthcare:: A Critical Historical Survey

Quality Management and Managerialism in Healthcare creates a comprehensive and systematic international survey of various perspectives on healthcare quality management together with some of their most pertinent critiques. Chapter one starts with a general discussion of the factors that drove the introduction of management paradigms into public sector and health management contexts in the mid to late 1980s. Chapter two explores the rise of risk awareness in medicine; which, prior to the 1980s, stood largely in isolation to the implementation of managerial performance targets. Chapter three investigates the widespread adoption of performance management and clinical governance frameworks during the 1980s and 1990s. This is followed by Chapters four and five which examine systems based models of patient safety and the evidence-based medicine movement as exemplars of managerial perspectives on healthcare quality. Chapter six discusses potential future avenues for the development of alternative perspectives on quality of care which emphasise workforce involvement. The book concludes by reviewing the factors which have underpinned the managerialist trajectory of healthcare management over the past decades and explores the potential impact of nascent technologies such as 'connected health' and 'telehealth' on future developments.

The feasibility of using near infrared and Raman spectroscopic techniques to detect fraudulent adulteration of chili powders with Sudan dye

Chili powder is a globally traded commodity which has been found to be adulterated with Sudan dyes from 2003 onwards. In this study, chili powders were adulterated with varying quantities of Sudan I dye (0.1-5%) and spectra were generated using near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) and Raman
spectroscopy (on a spectrometer with a sample compartment modified as part of the study). Chemometrics were applied to the spectral data to produce quantitative and qualitative calibration models and prediction statistics. For the quantitative models coefficients of determination (R2) were found to be
0.891-0.994 depending on which spectral data (NIRS/Raman) was processed, the mathematical algorithm used and the data pre-processing applied. The corresponding values for the root mean square error of calibration (RMSEC) and root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) were found to be 0.208-0.851%
and 0.141-0.831% respectively, once again depending on the spectral data and the chemometric treatment applied to the data. Indications are that the NIR spectroscopy based models are superior to the models produced from Raman spectral data based on a comparison of the values of the chemometric
parameters. The limit of detection (LOD) based on analysis of 20 blank chili powders against each calibration model gave 0.25% and 0.88% for the NIR and Raman data, respectively. In addition, adopting a qualitative approach with the spectral data and applying PCA or PLS-DA, it was possible to discriminate
between adulterated chili powders from non-adulterated chili powders.

Holding parties responsible at election time: Multi-level, multi-party government and electoral accountability

This paper highlights the crucial role played by party-specific responsibility attributions in performance-based voting. Three models of electoral accountability, which make distinct assumptions regarding citizens' ability to attribute responsibility to distinct governing parties, are tested in the challenging Northern Ireland context - an exemplar case of multi-level multi-party government in which expectations of performance based voting are low. The paper demonstrates the operation of party-attribution based electoral accountability, using data from the 2011 Northern Ireland Assembly Election Study. However, the findings are asymmetric: accountability operates in the Protestant/unionist bloc but not in the Catholic/nationalist bloc. This asymmetry may be explained by the absence of clear ethno-national ideological distinctions between the unionist parties (hence providing political space for performance based accountability to operate) but the continued relevance in the nationalist bloc of ethno-national difference (which limits the scope for performance politics). The implications of the findings for our understanding of the role of party-specific responsibility attribution in performance based models of voting, and for our evaluation of the quality of democracy in post-conflict consociational polities, are discussed. 

Making Ireland Modern

Making Ireland Modern is a cross-disciplinary, inter-institutional, inter-media design and research project which emerged from an open competition (won by Boyd and McLaughlin) to commission/curate the Irish pavilion for the Venice biennale 2014. It explores the relationship between architecture, infrastructure and technology in the building of a new nation. Constructed as a demountable, open matrix of drawings, photographs, models and other artefacts, the exhibition (12 x 5 x 6 metres) presents ten infrastructural episodes – Negation, Electricity, Health, Transportation, Television, Aviation, Education, Telecommunications, Motorways, Data – spanning a period of one hundred years from 1916-2016. Exploring a range of scales from the detail design of objects to entire landscapes and other territories, Making Ireland Modern describes architecture’s role in transforming the physical and cultural identity of the new state through its intersession in the everyday lives of its population. In 2015, we were commissioned by the Arts Council of Ireland to expand and develop the pavilion for a three cities tour of Ireland as one of the five major strands of the Arts Council’s Art2016 programme of Irish State’s 1916-2016 centennial celebrations (2016).

A compendium of modelling techniques

This Integration Insight provides a brief overview of the most popular modelling techniques used to analyse complex real-world problems, as well as some less popular but highly relevant techniques. The modelling methods are divided into three categories, with each encompassing a number of methods, as follows: 1) Qualitative Aggregate Models (Soft Systems Methodology, Concept Maps and Mind Mapping, Scenario Planning, Causal (Loop) Diagrams), 2) Quantitative Aggregate Models (Function fitting and Regression, Bayesian Nets, System of differential equations / Dynamical systems, System Dynamics, Evolutionary Algorithms) and 3) Individual Oriented Models (Cellular Automata, Microsimulation, Agent Based Models, Discrete Event Simulation, Social Network
Analysis). Each technique is broadly described with example uses, key attributes and reference material.