Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years

Volcanic eruptions contribute to climate variability, but quantifying these contributions has been limited by inconsistencies in the timing of atmospheric volcanic aerosol loading determined from ice cores and subsequent cooling from climate proxies such as tree rings. Here we resolve these inconsistencies and show that large eruptions in the tropics and high latitudes were primary drivers of interannual-to-decadal temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 2,500 years. Our results are based on new records of atmospheric aerosol loading developed from high-resolution, multi-parameter measurements from an array of Greenland and Antarctic ice cores as well as distinctive age markers to constrain chronologies. Overall, cooling was proportional to the magnitude of volcanic forcing and persisted for up to ten years after some of the largest eruptive episodes. Our revised timescale more firmly implicates volcanic eruptions as catalysts in the major sixth-century pandemics, famines, and socioeconomic disruptions in Eurasia and Mesoamerica while allowing multi-millennium quantification of climate response to volcanic forcing.

Models of open populations with space-limited recruitment: extension of theory and application to the barnacle Chthamalus montagui.

1. Barnacles are a good model organism for the study of open populations with space-limited recruitment. These models are applicable to other species with open supply of new individuals and resource limitation. The inclusion of space in models leads to reductions in recruitment with increasing density, and thus predictions of population size and stability are possible. 2. Despite the potential generality of a demographic theory for open space-limited populations, the models currently have a narrow empirical base. In this study, a model for an open population with space-limited recruitment was extended to include size-specific survival and promotions to any size class. The assumptions of this model were tested using data from a pan-European study of the barnacle Chthamalus montagui Southward. Two models were constructed: a 6-month model and a periodic annual model. Predicted equilibria and their stabilities were compared between shores. 3. Tests of model assumptions supported the extension of the theory to include promotions to any size class. Mortality was found to be size-specific and density independent. Studied populations were open, with recruitment proportional to free space. 4. The 6-month model showed a significant interaction between time and location for equilibrium free space. This may have been due to contrasts in the timing of structuring processes (i.e. creating and filling space) between Mediterranean and Atlantic systems. Integration of the 6-month models into a periodic annual model removed the differences in equilibrium-free space between locations. 5. Model predictions show a remarkable similarity between shores at a European scale. Populations were persistent and all solutions were stable. This reflects the apparent absence of density-dependent mortality and a high adult survivorship in C. montagui. As populations are intrinsically stable, observations of fluctuations in density are directly attributable to variations in the environmental forcing of recruitment or mortality

Organisational controls, typologies and time scales of paraglacial gravel-dominated coastal systems

The fundamental controls on the initiation and development of gravel-dominated deposits (beaches and barriers) on paraglacial coasts are particle size and shape, sediment supply, storm wave activity (primarily runup), relative sea-level (RSL) change, and terrestrial basement structure (primarily as it affects accommodation space). This paper examines the stochastic basis for barrier organisation as shown by variation in gravel barrier architecture. We recognise punctuated self-organisation of barrier development that is disrupted by short phases of barrier instability. The latter results from positive feedback causing barrier breakdown when sediment supply is exhausted. We examine published typologies for gravel barriers and advocate a consolidated perspective using rate of RSL change and sediment supply. We also consider the temporal variation in controls on barrier development. These are examined in terms of a simple behavioural model (BARCH) for prograding gravel barrier architecture and its sensitivity to such controls. The nature of macroscale (102–103 years) gravel barrier development, including inherited characteristics that influence barrier genesis, as well as forcing from changing RSL, sediment supply, headland control and barrier inertia, is examined in the context of long-surviving barriers along the southern England coastline.

Resting and daily energy expenditures of free-living field voles are positively correlated but reflect extrinsic rather than intrinsic effects

Resting metabolic rates at thermoneutral (RMRts) are unexpectedly variable. One explanation is that high RMRts intrinsically potentiate a greater total daily energy expenditure (DEE), but recent work has suggested that DEE is extrinsically defined by the environment, which independently affects RMRt. This extrinsic effect could occur because expenditure is forced upwards in poor habitats or enabled to rise in good habitats. We provide here an intraspecific test for an association between RMRt and DEE that separates intrinsic from extrinsic effects and forcing from enabling effects. We measured the DEE and RMRt of 75 free-living short-tailed field voles at two time points in late winter. Across all sites, there was a positive link between individual variation in RMRt and DEE. This correlation, however, emerged only because of an effect across sites, rather than because of an intrinsic association within sites. We defined site quality from the survivorship of voles at the sites and the time at which they commenced breeding in spring. The associations between DEE/RMRt and site quality suggested that in February voles in poorer sites had higher energy demands, indicating that DEE was forced upwards, but in March the opposite was true, with higher demands in good sites, indicating that high expenditure was enabled. These data show that daily energy demands are extrinsically defined, with a link to RMRt that is secondary or independent. Both forcing and enabling effects of the environment may pertain at different times of year.

Testing the palaeoclimatic significance of the Northern Irish bog oak record

We present an analysis of the Northern Irish bog oak record presented in Turney et al. (2005) for the last 4500 years. The record is compared with a compiled peatland water table record from the same region and palaeohydrological data from northern England and mid-latitude Europe. It is apparent that there is no consistent relationship between the population frequency of Irish bog oaks and the palaeohydrological reconstructions, illustrating that the record is not reflecting wetness changes in peatlands. We suggest that the bog oaks should be scrutinised on a within-site and a site-by-site basis to assess the spatial coherency of the shifts in tree populations and the synchronicity of phases of germination and dying off (GDO). Further work is needed to critically examine the controls on the establishment and demise of bog oaks on Irish peatlands before these data can be used as a palaeoclimate proxy. Only then can they be used to test solar forcing of Holocene climate change.

A 4500-year proxy climate record from peatlands in the North of Ireland: the identification of widespread summer ‘drought phases’?

Mid-to-late Holocene high-resolution testate amoebae-derived water table reconstructions from two peatlands in the North of Ireland are presented. The proxy climate records are dated and correlated using a combination of AMS 14C dating, spheroidal carbonaceous particles and tephrochronology. The reconstructions start prior to the Hekla 4 tephra isochron (2395–2279 BC) and thus span the last ~4500 years. The records are compiled by the process of tuning within chronological errors, standardisation and stacking. Comparisons are made to existing palaeoclimate records from peatlands in Northern Britain and Ireland and the compiled lake-level record for mid-latitude Europe. Four coherent dry phases are identified in the records at ca 1150–800 BC, 320 BC–AD 150, AD 250–470 and AD 1850–2000. Recent research has shown that peat-derived water table reconstructions reflect summer water deficit and therefore the dry phases are interpreted as periods with a higher frequency and/or greater magnitudes of summer drought. These ‘drought phases’ occur during periods of relatively low 14C production, which may add support to the hypothesis of persistent solar forcing of climate change during the Holocene. Any relationship with the North Atlantic stacked drift ice record is less clear. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Volatile and persistent real exchange rates with or without sticky prices

The flexible-price two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. Two methodologies are employed to explore this model's ability to generate volatile and persistent exchange rates. In the first, actual data is used for the exogenous driving processes. In the second, the model is simulated using estimated forcing processes. The theory, in both cases, is capable of explaining the high volatility and persistence of real and nominal exchange rates as well as the high correlation between real and nominal rates. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The thermohaline expressway: the Southern Ocean as a centre of origin for deep-sea octopuses

Understanding how environmental forcing has generated and maintained large-scale patterns of biodiversity is a key goal of evolutionary research and critical to predicting the impacts of global climate change. We suggest that the initiation of the global thermohaline circulation provided a mechanism for the radiation of Southern Ocean fauna into the deep sea. We test this hypothesis using a relaxed phylogenetic approach to coestimate phylogeny and divergence times for a lineage of octopuses with Antarctic and deep-sea representatives. We show that the deep-sea lineage had their evolutionary origins in Antarctica, and estimate that this lineage diverged around 33?million years ago (Ma) and subsequently radiated at 15?Ma. Both of these dates are critical in development of the thermohaline circulation and we suggest that this has acted as an evolutionary driver enabling the Southern Ocean to become a centre of origin for deep-sea fauna. This is the first unequivocal molecular evidence that deep-sea fauna from other ocean basins originated from Southern Ocean taxa and this is the first evidence to be dated.

Half-precessional dynamics of monsoon rainfall near the East African Equator

External climate forcings-such as long-term changes in solar insolation-generate different climate responses in tropical and high latitude regions(1). Documenting the spatial and temporal variability of past climates is therefore critical for understanding how such forcings are translated into regional climate variability. In contrast to the data-richmiddle and high latitudes, high-quality climate-proxy records from equatorial regions are relatively few(2-4), especially from regions experiencing the bimodal seasonal rainfall distribution associated with twice-annual passage of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Here we present a continuous and well-resolved climate-proxy record of hydrological variability during the past 25,000 years from equatorial East Africa. Our results, based on complementary evidence from seismic-reflection stratigraphy and organic biomarker molecules in the sediment record of Lake Challa near Mount Kilimanjaro, reveal that monsoon rainfall in this region varied at half-precessional (similar to 11,500-year) intervals in phase with orbitally controlled insolation forcing. The southeasterly and northeasterly monsoons that advect moisture from the western Indian Ocean were strengthened in alternation when the inter-hemispheric insolation gradient was at a maximum; dry conditions prevailed when neither monsoon was intensified and modest local March or September insolation weakened the rain season that followed. On sub-millennial timescales, the temporal pattern of hydrological change on the East African Equator bears clear high-northern-latitude signatures, but on the orbital timescale it mainly responded to low-latitude insolation forcing. Predominance of low-latitude climate processes in this monsoon region can be attributed to the low-latitude position of its continental regions of surface air flow convergence, and its relative isolation from the Atlantic Ocean, where prominent meridional overturning circulation more tightly couples low-latitude climate regimes to high-latitude boundary conditions.

Radiocarbon wiggle-match dating of proglacial lake sediments - Implications for the 8.2 ka event

The problem of insufficient age-control limits the utilisation of the 8.2 ka BP event for modelling freshwater forcing in climate change studies. High-resolution radiocarbon dates, magnetic susceptibility and lithostratigraphic evidence from a lake sediment core from Nedre Hervavatnet located at Sygnefjell in western Norway provide a record of the early Holocene. We use the method of radiocarbon wiggle-match dating of the lake sediments using the non-linear relationship between the C-14 calibration curve and the consecutive accumulation order of the sample series in order to build a high-resolution age-model. The timing and duration of Holocene environmental changes is estimated using 38 AMS radiocarbon dates on terrestrial macrofossils, insects and chironomids covering the time period from 9750 to 1180 cal BP. Chironomids, Salix and Betula leaves produce the most consistent results. Sedimentological and physical properties of the core suggest that three meltwater events with high sedimentation rates are superimposed on a long-term trend with glacier retreat between 9750 and 8000 cal BP. The lake sediment sequence of Nedre Hervavatnet demonstrates the following: only a reliable high-resolution geochronology based on carefully selected terrestrial macrofossils allows the reconstruction of a more refined and complex environmental change history before and during the 8.2 ka event. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A record of rapid Holocene climate change preserved in hyrax middens from southwestern Africa

The discovery of sensitive paleoenvironmental proxies contained within fossilized rock hyrax middens from the margin of the central Namib Desert, Africa, is providing unprecedented insight into the region's environmental history. High-resolution stable carbon and nitrogen isotope records spanning 0-11,700 cal (calibrated) yr B. P. indicate phases of relatively humid conditions from 8700-7500, 6900-6700, 5600-4900, and 4200-3500 cal yr B. P., with a period of marked aridity occurring from 3500 until ca. 300 cal yr B. P. Transitions between these phases appear to have occurred very rapidly, often within <200 years. Of particular importance are: (1) the observed relationship between regional aridification and the decline in Northern Hemisphere insolation across the Holocene, and (2) the significance of suborbital scale variations in climate that covary strongly with fluctuations in solar forcing. Together, these elements call for a fundamental reexamination of the role of orbital forcing on tropical African systems, and a reconsideration of what factors drive climate change in the region. The quality and resolution of these data far surpass any other evidence available from the region, and the continued development of this unique archive promises to revolutionize paleoenvironmental studies in southern Africa.

Improved Linear Transmit Processing for Single-User and Multi-User MIMO Communications Systems

In this paper, we propose a novel linear transmit precoding strategy for multiple-input, multiple-output (MIMO) systems employing improper signal constellations. In particular, improved zero-forcing (ZF) and minimum mean square error (MMSE) precoders are derived based on modified cost functions, and are shown to achieve a superior performance without loss of spectrum efficiency compared to the conventional linear and nonlinear precoders. The superiority of the proposed precoders over the conventional solutions are verified by both simulation and analytical results. The novel approach to precoding design is also applied to the case of an imperfect channel estimate with a known error covariance as well as to the multi-user scenario where precoding based on the nullspace of channel transmission matrix is employed to decouple multi-user channels. In both cases, the improved precoding schemes yield significant performance gain compared to the conventional counterparts.