International order flows: Explaining equity and exchange rate returns

Macroeconomic models of equity and exchange rate returns perform poorly at high frequencies. The proportion of daily returns that these models explain is essentially zero. Instead of relying on macroeconomic determinants, we model equity price and exchange rate behavior based on a concept from microstructure – order flow. The international order flows are derived from belief changes of different investor groups in a two-country setting. We obtain a structural relationship between equity returns, exchange rate returns and their relationship to home and foreign equity market order flow. To test the model we construct daily aggregate order flow data from 800 million equity trades in the U.S. and France from 1999 to 2003. Almost 60% of the daily returns in the S&P100 index are explained jointly by exchange rate returns and aggregate order flows in both markets. As predicted by the model, daily exchange rate returns and order flow into the French market have significant incremental explanatory power for the daily S&P returns. The model implications are also validated for intraday returns.

EFFECT OF SURFACE RESISTOR LOADING ON HIGH-IMPEDANCE SURFACE RADAR ABSORBER RETURN LOSS AND BANDWIDTH

A simple method for the selection of the appropriate choice of surface-mounted loading resistor required for a thin radar absorber based on a high-impedance surface (HIS) principle is demonstrated. The absorber consists of a HIS, (artificial magnetic ground plane), thickness 0.03 lambda(0) surface-loaded resistive-elements interconnecting a textured surface of square patches. The properties of absorber are characterized under normal incident using a parallel plate waveguide measurement technique over the operating frequency range of 2.6-3.95 GHz. We show that for this arrangement return loss and bandwidth are insensitive to +/- 2% tolerance variations in surface resistor values about the value predicted using the method elaborated in this letter, and that better than -28 dB at 3.125 GHz reflection loss can be obtained with an effective working bandwidth of up to 11% at -10 dB reflection loss. (C) 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Microwave Opt Technol Lett 51: 1733-1775, 2009; Published online in Wiley Interscience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/mop.24454

Do benchmark African equity indices exhibit the stylized facts?

This paper investigates if benchmark African equity indices exhibit the stylized facts reported for financial time-series returns. The returns distributions of the Africa All-Share, Large, Medium and Small Company Indices were found to be leptokurtotic, had fat-tails, over time experienced volatility clustering and exhibited long memory in volatility. Both the All-Share and Large Company Indices were found to exhibit leverage effects. In contrast, positive shocks had a greater impact on future volatility for the Small Company Index which implies a reverse leverage effect. This finding could reflect a bull/bubble market for small capitalisation stocks in Africa.

The impact of equity markets and corporate governance on labour market flexibility

Drawing from various literatures, this article explores links between equity markets and labour market flexibility. Various data sources are used to test relationships for a set of OECD countries, controlling for other likely influences on flexibility such as government and industrial relations institutions. The results are generally supportive as regards employment flexibility: equity market trading activity is associated with shorter job tenure, higher activity rates, and greater employment change over the cycle. However, the relationship between equity markets and pay flexibility is less statistically robust to the addition of controls.