Drivers of inequality in disability-free expectancy at birth and age 85 across space and time in Great Britain

Background: Although mortality and health inequalities at birth have increased both geographically and in socioeconomic terms, little is known about inequalities at age 85, the fastest growing sector of the population in Great Britain (GB).

Aim: To determine whether trends and drivers of inequalities in life expectancy (LE) and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) at age 85 between 1991 and 2001 are the same as those at birth.

Methods: DFLE at birth and age 85 for 1991 and 2001 by gender were calculated for each local authority in GB using the Sullivan method. Regression modelling was used to identify area characteristics (rurality, deprivation, social class composition, ethnicity, unemployment, retirement migration) that could explain inequalities in LE and DFLE.

Results: Similar to values at birth, LE and DFLE at age 85 both increased between 1991 and 2001 (though DFLE increased less than LE) and gaps across local areas widened (and more for DFLE than LE). The significantly greater increases in LE and DFLE at birth for less-deprived compared with more-deprived areas were still partly present at age 85. Considering all factors, inequalities in DFLE at birth were largely driven by social class composition and unemployment rate, but these associations appear to be less influential at age 85.

Conclusions: Inequalities between areas in LE and DFLE at birth and age 85 have increased over time though factors explaining inequalities at birth (mainly social class and unemployment rates) appear less important for inequalities at age 85.

Responding to mental health statutory drivers: experience of a low intensity cognitive behavioural therapy programme

Objectives Stress control (SC), a brief psycho-education course, was implemented to increase access to psychological therapies in line with Northern Irish mental health service statutory drivers. The first aim of this study was to gauge the efficacy of SC in a robust manner with clinical significance testing. The second aim was to assess whether demographics traditionally ‘hard-to-reach’ – males, younger adults and those from deprived areas – accessed SC. The third aim was to elucidate what prompted their access and the experiences of attendees at SC. Methods Attendees at SC were 170 adults over six iterations of the course. Pre- and post-questionnaires included the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales – 21, captured demographic details and qualitative feedback, which was subject to a mixed-methods analysis. Results SC attendees reported significant decreases on depression, anxiety and stress sub-scales post-intervention. Moreover, 38.71% ( n =36) of attendees who completed SC exhibited clinically significant improvement afterwards on one or more sub-scale. Attendance figures for males, younger adults and those classified as socioeconomically deprived were modest. Patterns within the data suggested prospective success for targeting these cohorts. Conclusions SC attracted people in need of mental healthcare input and affected quantifiable change within those people’s lives, while satisfying statutory demands for service delivery in an accessible community context. Recommendations to increase engagement with those traditionally ‘hard-to-reach’ for psychological services are provided, which, if implemented, have the potential to achieve further compliance with Northern Irish mental health statutory drivers.

Mathematical Modeling to Assess the Drivers of the Recent Emergence of Typhoid Fever in Blantyre, Malawi

BACKGROUND: Multiyear epidemics of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi have been reported from countries across eastern and southern Africa in recent years. In Blantyre, Malawi, a dramatic increase in typhoid fever cases has recently occurred, and may be linked to the emergence of the H58 haplotype. Strains belonging to the H58 haplotype often exhibit multidrug resistance and may have a fitness advantage relative to other Salmonella Typhi strains.

METHODS: To explore hypotheses for the increased number of typhoid fever cases in Blantyre, we fit a mathematical model to culture-confirmed cases of Salmonella enterica infections at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre. We explored 4 hypotheses: (1) an increase in the basic reproductive number (R0) in response to increasing population density; (2) a decrease in the incidence of cross-immunizing infection with Salmonella Enteritidis; (3) an increase in the duration of infectiousness due to failure to respond to first-line antibiotics; and (4) an increase in the transmission rate following the emergence of the H58 haplotype.

RESULTS: Increasing population density or decreasing cross-immunity could not fully explain the observed pattern of typhoid emergence in Blantyre, whereas models allowing for an increase in the duration of infectiousness and/or the transmission rate of typhoid following the emergence of the H58 haplotype provided a good fit to the data.

CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that an increase in the transmissibility of typhoid due to the emergence of drug resistance associated with the H58 haplotype may help to explain recent outbreaks of typhoid in Malawi and similar settings in Africa.

Northern Ireland Policing Board Confidence in Policing Research: Key Drivers of Confidence

In January 2014, the Northern Ireland Policing Board (NIPB) commissioned the University of Ulster to conduct research into public confidence in policing to help inform the work of the Board and its oversight of police service delivery. More specifically, the research team were tasked with exploring ‘the key drivers of confidence in Northern Ireland’. To date, the subject of ‘confidence in policing’ within a Northern Ireland context has been relatively under researched, both in academic and policy terms. Thus, the present research is the first empirical research to be produced in the country to empirically assess confidence in policing from a cross section of society – including the key dynamics and drivers that underpin police confidence at a community level.

The report begins with a comprehensive review of academic literature, policy documents and contemporary events related to confidence in policing. The research then provides an overview of the methodology used to undertake the research, with the remainder of the report comprised of the findings from the survey. The report concludes with an overview of the central findings along with a series of recommendations.