Constraining the age of Lateglacial and early Holocene pollen zones and tephra horizons in southern Sweden with Bayesian probability methods

The sediment sequence from Hasseldala port in southeastern Sweden provides a unique Lateglacial/early Holocene record that contains five different tephra layers. Three of these have been geochemically identified as the Borrobol Tephra, the Hasseldalen Tephra and the 10-ka Askja Tephra. Twenty-eight high-resolution C-14 measurements have been obtained and three different age models based on Bayesian statistics are employed to provide age estimates for the five different tephra layers. The chrono- and pollen stratigraphic framework supports the stratigraphic position of the Borrobol Tephra as found in Sweden at the very end of the Older Dryas pollen zone and provides the first age estimates for the Askja and Hasseldalen tephras. Our results, however, highlight the limitations that arise in attempting to establish a robust, chronologically independent lacustrine sequence that can be correlated in great detail to ice core or marine records. Radiocarbon samples are prone to error and sedimentation rates in lake basins may vary considerably due to a number of factors. Any type of valid and 'realistic' age model, therefore, has to take these limitations into account and needs to include this information in its prior assumptions. As a result, the age ranges for the specific horizons at Hasseldala port are large and calendar year estimates differ according to the assumptions of the age-model. Not only do these results provide a cautionary note for overdependence on one age-model for the derivation of age estimates for specific horizons, but they also demonstrate that precise correlations to other palaeoarchives to detect leads or lags is problematic. Given the uncertainties associated with establishing age-depth models for sedimentary sequences spanning the Lateglacial period, however, this exercise employing Bayesian probability methods represents the best possible approach and provides the most statistically significant age estimates for the pollen zone boundaries and tephra horizons. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Bayesian Network Hybrid Model for Representing Accident and Emergency Waiting Times

The paper introduces a new modeling approach that represents the waiting times in an Accident and Emergency (A&E) Department in a UK based National Health Service (NHS) hospital. The technique uses Bayesian networks to capture the heterogeneity of arriving patients by representing how patient covariates interact to influence their waiting times in the department. Such waiting times have been reviewed by the NHS as a means of investigating the efficiency of A&E departments (Emergency Rooms) and how they operate. As a result activity targets are now established based on the patient total waiting times with much emphasis on trolley waits.

Revised age estimate of the Mjauvotn tephra A on the Faroe Islands based on Bayesian modelling of C-14 dates from two lake sequences

Tephra horizons are potentially perfect time markers for dating and cross-correlation among diverse Holocene palaeoenvironmental records such as ice cores and marine and terrestrial sequences, but we need to trust their age. Here we present a new age estimate of the Holocene Mjauvotn tephra A using accelerator mass spectrometry C-14 dates from two lakes on the Faroe Islands. With Bayesian age modelling it is dated to 6668-6533 cal. a BP (68.2% confidence interval) - significantly older and better constrained than the previous age. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Bayesian network hybrid model for representing accident and emergency waiting times

The paper introduces a new modeling approach that represents the waiting times in an accident and emergency (A&E) department in a UK based national health service (NHS) hospital. The technique uses Bayesian networks to capture the heterogeneity of arriving patients by representing how patient covariates interact to influence their waiting times in the department. Such waiting times have been reviewed by the NHS as a means of investigating the efficiency of A&E departments (emergency rooms) and how they operate. As a result activity targets are now established based on the patient total waiting times with much emphasis on trolley waits.

Multicamera sport player tracking with Bayesian estimation of measurements

We propose a complete application capable of tracking multiple objects in an environment monitored by multiple cameras. The system has been specially developed to be applied to sport games, and it has been evaluated in a real association-football stadium. Each target is tracked using a local importance-sampling particle filter in each camera, but the final estimation is made by combining information from the other cameras using a modified unscented Kalman filter algorithm. Multicamera integration enables us to compensate for bad measurements or occlusions in some cameras thanks to the other views it offers. The final algorithm results in a more accurate system with a lower failure rate. (C) 2009 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers. [DOI: 10.1117/1.3114605]