Model selection for prognostic time-to-event gene signature discovery with applications in early breast cancer data

Model selection between competing models is a key consideration in the discovery of prognostic multigene signatures. The use of appropriate statistical performance measures as well as verification of biological significance of the signatures is imperative to maximise the chance of external validation of the generated signatures. Current approaches in time-to-event studies often use only a single measure of performance in model selection, such as logrank test p-values, or dichotomise the follow-up times at some phase of the study to facilitate signature discovery. In this study we improve the prognostic signature discovery process through the application of the multivariate partial Cox model combined with the concordance index, hazard ratio of predictions, independence from available clinical covariates and biological enrichment as measures of signature performance. The proposed framework was applied to discover prognostic multigene signatures from early breast cancer data. The partial Cox model combined with the multiple performance measures were used in both guiding the selection of the optimal panel of prognostic genes and prediction of risk within cross validation without dichotomising the follow-up times at any stage. The signatures were successfully externally cross validated in independent breast cancer datasets, yielding a hazard ratio of 2.55 [1.44, 4.51] for the top ranking signature.

Automated Methods for Aircraft Design Integrated with Manufacturing

Aircraft design is a complex, long and iterative process that requires the use of various specialties and optimization tools. However these tools and specialities do not include manufacturing, which is often considered later in the product development process leading to higher cost and time delays. This work focuses on the development of an automated design tool that accounts for manufacture during the design process focusing on early geometry definition which in turn informs assembly planning. To accomplish this task the design process needs to be open to any variation in structural configuration while maintaining the design intent. Redefining design intent as a map which links a set of requirements to a set of functions using a numerical approach enables the design process itself to be considered as a mathematical function. This definition enables the design process to utilise captured design knowledge and translate it into a set of mathematical equations that design the structure. This process is articulated in this paper using the structural design and definition for an aircraft fuselage section as an exemplar.

PESSTO: Survey description and products from the first data release by the Public ESO Spectroscopic Survey of Transient Objects

Context. The Public European Southern Observatory Spectroscopic Survey of Transient Objects (PESSTO) began as a public spectroscopic survey in April 2012. PESSTO classifies transients from publicly available sources and wide-field surveys, and selects science targets for detailed spectroscopic and photometric follow-up. PESSTO runs for nine months of the year, January - April and August - December inclusive, and typically has allocations of 10 nights per month. 

Aims. We describe the data reduction strategy and data products that are publicly available through the ESO archive as the Spectroscopic Survey data release 1 (SSDR1). 

Methods. PESSTO uses the New Technology Telescope with the instruments EFOSC2 and SOFI to provide optical and NIR spectroscopy and imaging. We target supernovae and optical transients brighter than 20.5^m for classification. Science targets are selected for follow-up based on the PESSTO science goal of extending knowledge of the extremes of the supernova population. We use standard EFOSC2 set-ups providing spectra with resolutions of 13-18 Å between 3345-9995 Å. A subset of the brighter science targets are selected for SOFI spectroscopy with the blue and red grisms (0.935-2.53 μm and resolutions 23-33 Å) and imaging with broadband JHK<inf>s</inf> filters. 

Results. This first data release (SSDR1) contains flux calibrated spectra from the first year (April 2012-2013). A total of 221 confirmed supernovae were classified, and we released calibrated optical spectra and classifications publicly within 24 h of the data being taken (via WISeREP). The data in SSDR1 replace those released spectra. They have more reliable and quantifiable flux calibrations, correction for telluric absorption, and are made available in standard ESO Phase 3 formats. We estimate the absolute accuracy of the flux calibrations for EFOSC2 across the whole survey in SSDR1 to be typically ∼15%, although a number of spectra will have less reliable absolute flux calibration because of weather and slit losses. Acquisition images for each spectrum are available which, in principle, can allow the user to refine the absolute flux calibration. The standard NIR reduction process does not produce high accuracy absolute spectrophotometry but synthetic photometry with accompanying JHK<inf>s</inf> imaging can improve this. Whenever possible, reduced SOFI images are provided to allow this. 

Conclusions. Future data releases will focus on improving the automated flux calibration of the data products. The rapid turnaround between discovery and classification and access to reliable pipeline processed data products has allowed early science papers in the first few months of the survey.

Towards Automated Data-Driven Model Creation for Cloud Computing Simulation

The increasing complexity and scale of cloud computing environments due to widespread data centre heterogeneity makes measurement-based evaluations highly difficult to achieve. Therefore the use of simulation tools to support decision making in cloud computing environments to cope with this problem is an increasing trend. However the data required in order to model cloud computing environments with an appropriate degree of accuracy is typically large, very difficult to collect without some form of automation, often not available in a suitable format and a time consuming process if done manually. In this research, an automated method for cloud computing topology definition, data collection and model creation activities is presented, within the context of a suite of tools that have been developed and integrated to support these activities.

Automated tumor analysis for molecular profiling in lung cancer

The discovery and clinical application of molecular biomarkers in solid tumors, increasingly relies on nucleic acid extraction from FFPE tissue sections and subsequent molecular profiling. This in turn requires the pathological review of haematoxylin & eosin (H&E) stained slides, to ensure sample quality, tumor DNA sufficiency by visually estimating the percentage tumor nuclei and tumor annotation for manual macrodissection. In this study on NSCLC, we demonstrate considerable variation in tumor nuclei percentage between pathologists, potentially undermining the precision of NSCLC molecular evaluation and emphasising the need for quantitative tumor evaluation. We subsequently describe the development and validation of a system called TissueMark for automated tumor annotation and percentage tumor nuclei measurement in NSCLC using computerized image analysis. Evaluation of 245 NSCLC slides showed precise automated tumor annotation of cases using Tissuemark, strong concordance with manually drawn boundaries and identical EGFR mutational status, following manual macrodissection from the image analysis generated tumor boundaries. Automated analysis of cell counts for % tumor measurements by Tissuemark showed reduced variability and significant correlation (p < 0.001) with benchmark tumor cell counts. This study demonstrates a robust image analysis technology that can facilitate the automated quantitative analysis of tissue samples for molecular profiling in discovery and diagnostics.

Tri-axial accelerometers quantify behaviour in the Eurasian badger (Meles meles): towards an automated interpretation of field data

The popularity of tri-axial accelerometer data loggers to quantify animal activity through the analysis of signature traces is increasing. However, there is no consensus on how to process the large data sets that these devices generate when recording at the necessary high sample rates. In addition, there have been few attempts to validate accelerometer traces with specific behaviours in non-domesticated terrestrial mammals.

An Automated Design Framework for Assembly Task Simulation

This paper presents an automated design framework for the development of individual part forming tools for a composite stiffener. The framework uses parametrically developed design geometries for both the part and its layup tool. The framework has been developed with a functioning user interface where part / tool combinations are passed to a virtual environment for utility based assessment of their features and assemblability characteristics. The work demonstrates clear benefits in process design methods with conventional design timelines reduced from hours and days to minutes and seconds. The methods developed here were able to produce a digital mock up of a component with its associated layup tool in less than 3 minutes. The virtual environment presenting the design to the designer for interactive assembly planning was generated in 20 seconds. Challenges still exist in determining the level of reality required to provide an effective learning environment in the virtual world. Full representation of physical phenomena such as gravity, part clashes and the representation of standard build functions require further work to represent real physical phenomena more accurately.

Advanced Business Simulations-Incorporating business and process execution data

Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and their predictions are widely used by the enterprises for informed decision making. Nevertheless , a very important factor, which is generally overlooked, is that the top level strategic KPIs are actually driven by the operational level business processes. These two domains are, however, mostly segregated and analysed in silos with different Business Intelligence solutions. In this paper, we are proposing an approach for advanced Business Simulations, which converges the two domains by utilising process execution & business data, and concepts from Business Dynamics (BD) and Business Ontologies, to promote better system understanding and detailed KPI predictions. Our approach incorporates the automated creation of Causal Loop Diagrams, thus empowering the analyst to critically examine the complex dependencies hidden in the massive amounts of available enterprise data. We have further evaluated our proposed approach in the context of a retail use-case that involved verification of the automatically generated causal models by a domain expert.

Intelligent DMU creation: Nominal CAD model preparation for automated tolerance allocation

This paper examines the integration of a tolerance design process within the Computer-Aided Design (CAD) environment having identified the potential to create an intelligent Digital Mock-Up [1]. The tolerancing process is complex in nature and as such reliance on Computer-Aided Tolerancing (CAT) software and domain experts can create a disconnect between the design and manufacturing disciplines It is necessary to implement the tolerance design procedure at the earliest opportunity to integrate both disciplines and to reduce workload in tolerance analysis and allocation at critical stages in product development when production is imminent.
The work seeks to develop a methodology that will allow for a preliminary tolerance allocation procedure within CAD. An approach to tolerance allocation based on sensitivity analysis is implemented on a simple assembly to review its contribution to an intelligent DMU. The procedure is developed using Python scripting for CATIA V5, with analysis results aligning with those in literature. A review of its implementation and requirements is presented.