Long-term return reversals-Value and growth or tax? UK evidence

This paper examines (i) whether value-growth characteristics have more power than past performance in predicting return reversals; and (ii) whether typical rational behaviour such as incentives to delay paying capital gain taxes can better explain long-term reversals than past performance. We find that value-growth characteristics generally provide better explanations for long-term stock returns than past performance. The evidence also shows that winners identified by capital gains dominate past performance winners in predicting reversals in the cross-sectional comparison. However, in the time-series analysis, when returns on capital gain winners are adjusted by the Fama and French (1996) risk factors, the predictive power of capital gain winners disappears. Our results show that capital gain winners are heavily featured as growth stocks. Return reversals in capital gain winners potentially reflect market price corrections for growth stocks. We conclude that investors’ incentives to delay paying capital gain taxes cannot fully rationalise long-term reversals in the UK market. Our results also imply that the long-term return pattern potentially reflects a mixture of investor rational and irrational behaviour.

Rao-Blackwellised particle filter for colour-based tracking

Colour-based particle filters have been used exhaustively in the literature given rise to multiple applications However tracking coloured objects through time has an important drawback since the way in which the camera perceives the colour of the object can change Simple updates are often used to address this problem which imply a risk of distorting the model and losing the target In this paper a joint image characteristic-space tracking is proposed which updates the model simultaneously to the object location In order to avoid the curse of dimensionality a Rao-Blackwellised particle filter has been used Using this technique the hypotheses are evaluated depending on the difference between the model and the current target appearance during the updating stage Convincing results have been obtained in sequences under both sudden and gradual illumination condition changes Crown Copyright (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Vocal rate as an assessment process during fallow deer contests

Two types of model propose that strategic decisions during contests are determined either by (i) a mutual-assessment process or (ii) a self-assessment process. Vocal signals are thought to convey information about the competitive abilities of individuals, the ultimate function of which is a reduction in costs associated with fighting consistent with the principle of mutual assessment. Nevertheless, the limited evidence that male ungulates engage in mutual assessment of vocal rates during dyadic contests has been questioned. Therefore, we examined the vocal rates of winners and losers during escalated dyadic contests between male fallow deer in order to further inform on this issue. Our results showed that winners and losers did not differ in vocal rate. The best model fit that accounted for individual vocal rates included a preponderance of factors related to the opponent indicating that contestants were attending to their opponent during fights. Vocal rate was, therefore, dependent on estimates of opponent quality without reference to self, supporting an 'opponent-only' rather than a mutual assessment process. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

Romanticism and Blackwood's Magazine:'An Unprecedented Phenomenon'

Romanticism and Blackwood's Magazine is inspired by the ongoing critical fascination with Blackwood's Edinburgh Magazine, and the burgeoning recognition of its centrality to the Romantic age. Though the magazine itself was published continuously for well over a century and a half, this volume concentrates specifically on those years when William Blackwood was at the helm, beginning with his founding of the magazine in 1817 and closing with his death in 1834. These were the years when, as Samuel Taylor Coleridge put it in 1832, Blackwood's reigned as 'an unprecedented Phenomenon in the world of letters.' The magazine placed itself at the centre of the emerging mass media, commented decisively on all the major political and cultural issues that shaped the Romantic movement, and published some of the leading writers of the day, including Coleridge, Thomas De Quincey, John Galt, Felicia Hemans, James Hogg, Walter Scott, and Mary Shelley.

'This much-needed volume reminds us not only why Blackwood's was the most influential periodical publication of the time, but also how its writers, writings, and critical agendas continue to shape so many of the scholarly concerns of Romantic studies in the twenty-first century.' - Charles Mahoney, Associate Professor, University of Connecticut, USA

List of Illustrations
Acknowledgements
Abbreviations
Notes on Contributors
'A character so various, and yet so indisputably its own': A Passage to Blackwood's Edinburgh Magazine; R.Morrison & D.S.Roberts
PART I: BLACKWOOD'S AND THE PERIODICAL PRESS
Beginning Blackwood's: The Right Mix of Dulce and Ùtile; P.Flynn
John Gibson Lockhart and Blackwood's: Shaping the Romantic Periodical Press; T.Richardson
From Gluttony to Justified Sinning: Confessional Writing in Blackwood's and the London Magazine; D.Higgins
Camaraderie and Conflict: De Quincey and Wilson on Enemy Lines; R.Morrison
Selling Blackwood's Magazine, 1817-1834; D.Finkelstein
PART II: BLACKWOOD'S CULTURE AND CRITICISM
Blackwood's 'Personalities'; T.Mole
Communal Reception, Mary Shelley, and the 'Blackwood's School' of Criticism; N.Mason
Blackwoodian Allusion and the Culture of Miscellaneity; D.Stewart
Blackwood's Edinburgh Magazine in the Scientific Culture of Early Nineteenth-Century Edinburgh; W.Christie
The Art and Science of Politics in Blackwood's Edinburgh Magazine, c. 1817-1841; D.Kelly
Prosing Poetry: Blackwood's and Generic Transposition, 1820-1840; J.Camlot
PART III: BLACKWOOD'S FICTIONS
Blackwood's and the Boundaries of the Short Story; T.Killick
The Edinburgh of Blackwood's Edinburgh Magazine and James Hogg's Fiction; G.Hughes
'The Taste for Violence in Blackwood's Magazine'; M.Schoenfield
PART IV: BLACKWOOD'S AT HOME
John Wilson and Regency Authorship; R.Cronin
John Wilson and Sport; J.Strachan
William Maginn and the Blackwood's 'Preface' of 1826; D.E.Latané, Jr.
All Work and All Play: Felicia Hemans's Edinburgh Noctes; N.Sweet
PART V: BLACKWOOD'S ABROAD
Imagining India in Early Blackwood's; D.S.Roberts
Tales of the Colonies: Blackwood's, Provincialism, and British Interests Abroad; A.Jarrells
Selected Bibliography
Index

ROBERT MORRISON is Queen's National Scholar at Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada. His book, The English Opium-Eater: A Biography of Thomas De Quincey was a finalist for the James Tait Black Prize. He has edited writings by Jane Austen, Leigh Hunt, Thomas De Quincey, and John Polidori.
DANIEL SANJIV ROBERTS is Reader in English at Queen's University Belfast, UK. His publications include a monograph, Revisionary Gleam: De Quincey, Coleridge, and the High Romantic Argument (2000), and major critical editions of Thomas De Quincey's Autobiographic Sketches and Robert Southey's The Curse of Kehama; the latter was cited as a Distinguished Scholarly Edition by the MLA. He is currently working on an edition of Charles Johnstone's novel The History of Arsaces, Prince of Betlis for the Early Irish Fiction series.

Stigmatised Identity and Service Usage in Disadvantaged Communities: Residents’, community workers’ and service providers’ perspectives.

The impact of community stigmatisation upon service usage has been largely overlooked from a social identity perspective. Specifically, the social identity-mediated mechanisms by which stigmatisation hinders service use remain unspecified. The present study examines how service providers, community workers and residents recount their experience of the stigmatisation of local community identity and how this shapes residents’ uptake of welfare, education and community support services. Twenty individual and group interviews with 10 residents, 16 community workers and six statutory service providers in economically disadvantaged communities in Limerick, Ireland, were thematically analysed.Analysis indicates that statutory service providers endorsed negative stereotypes of disadvantaged areas as separate and anti-social. The awareness of this perceived division and the experience of ‘stigma consciousness’ was reported by residents and community workers to undermine trust, leading to under-utilisation of community and government services. We argue that stigmatisation acts as a ‘social curse’ by undermining shared identity between service users and providers and so turning a potentially cooperative intragroup relationship into a fraught intergroup one. We suggest that tackling stigma in order to foster a sense of shared identity is important in creating positive and cooperative service interactions for both service users and providers.

Covariance Averaging for Improved Estimation and Portfolio Allocation

We propose a new method for estimating the covariance matrix of a multivariate time series of nancial returns. The method is based on estimating sample covariances from overlapping windows of observations which are then appropriately weighted to obtain the nal covariance estimate. We extend the idea of (model) covariance averaging o ered in the covariance shrinkage approach by means of greater ease of use, exibility and robustness in averaging information over different data segments. The suggested approach does not su er from the curse of dimensionality and can be used without problems of either approximation or any demand for numerical optimization.

Varieties of resource nationalism in sub-Saharan Africa’s energy and minerals markets

This article examines resource nationalism in sub-Saharan Africa's energy and minerals markets. It does so by exploring economic and political developments in three cases: Nigeria as an example of a petro-state established by means of expropriation in the wake of decolonisation; South Africa, a mature mining industry shaped by its settler colonial history; and Mozambique, a new and therefore highly-dependent entrant into the league of significant natural gas producers. Extractive industries have played a controversial role in sub-Saharan Africa due in particular to the prevalence of the resource curse. Nevertheless, energy exports will continue to play an important role in fuelling economic growth and, potentially, also development as new deposits of natural gas and oil are discovered across the region. Resource nationalism has, moreover, increasingly constrained operations of the traditionally dominant Western energy companies, in particular as competition from state-owned energy companies in sub-Saharan Africa and from emerging powers such as China is increasing.

Oil and Dependency::The Case of Kazakhstan

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the newly independent oil-rich country of Kazakhstan has become a major recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI). Although international organisations such as the IMF and UNCTAD have claimed that FDI could be considered an engine in the transition from state socialism and as a powerful force for integration of this region into the global economy; this investment also poses significant risks to Kazakhstan. These risks fall into two broad categories: The first category can be broadly described as issues associated with the “resource curse” or the “Dutch Disease”. The term Dutch Disease describes a situation where booming demand in oil exporting countries, due to high oil revenues, leads to shift of an economy’s productive resources from the tradeable sector to the non-tradeable sector. The second category is associated with the over-dependency of oil exporting countries on a relatively small number of large multinational corporations (MNCs). This over-dependency can lead to a situation where licenses and concessions are granted at less favourable conditions than if they were auctioned in an efficient market. Examining the licensing policy of the Kazakhstani Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry, this paper notes that the latter issue of over-dependency has become less of a risk due to deliberate efforts to diversify investment relationships. Notwithstanding this situation there is some evidence that it remains difficult for oil exporting nations such as Kazakhstan to ensure that oil revenues are channelled into sustainable economic development.

Molecular Recognition in Biomimetic Receptors

This book commemorates the 25th anniversary of the International Izatt-Christensen Award in Macrocyclic and Supramolecular Chemistry. The award, one of the most prestigious of small awards in chemistry, recognizes excellence in the developing field of macrocyclic and supramolecular chemistry

Macrocyclic and Supramolecular Chemistry: How Izatt-Christensen Award Winners Shaped the Field features chapters written by the award recipients who provide unique perspectives on the spectacular growth in these expanding and vibrant fields of chemistry over the past half century, and on the role of these awardees in shaping this growth. During this time there has been an upsurge of interest in the design, synthesis and characterization of increasingly more complex macrocyclic ligands and in the application of this knowledge to understanding molecular recognition processes in host-guest chemistry in ways that were scarcely envisioned decades earlier.

A Sustainable Century? Genuine Savings in developing and developed countries, 1900-2000

This chapter traces the long-run development of Genuine Savings (GS) using a panel of eleven countries during the twentieth century. This panel covers a number of developed countries (Great Britain, Germany, Switzerland, France, the US, and Australia) as well as a set of resource-abundant countries in Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico). These countries represent approximately 50 percent of the world’s output in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 1950, and include large economies and small open economies, and resource-rich and resource-scarce countries, thus allowing us to compare their historical experiences. Components of GS considered include physical and human capital as well as resource extraction and pollution damages. Generally, we find evidence of positive GS over the course of the twentieth century, although the two World Wars and the Great Depression left considerable marks. Also, we found striking differences between Latin American and developed countries when Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is included; this could be a signal of natural resource curse or technological gaps unnoticed in previous works.

Complex contests and the influence of aggressiveness in pigs

Animal contests vary greatly in behavioural tactics used and intensity reached, with some encounters resolved without physical contact while others escalate to damaging fighting. However, the reasons for such variation remains to be fully explained. Aggressiveness, in terms of a personality trait, offers a potentially important source of variation that has typically been overlooked. Therefore, we studied how aggressiveness as a personality trait influenced escalation between contestants matched for resource holding potential (RHP), using detailed observations of the contest behaviour, contest dynamics, and escalation levels. We predicted that winner and loser behaviour would differ depending on personality. This was tested by examining 52 dyadic contests between pigs (Sus scrofa). Aggressiveness was assayed in resident-intruder tests prior to the contest. Contests were then staged between pigs matched for RHP in terms of body weight but differing in their aggressiveness. In 27% of the contests a winner emerged without escalated physical fighting, demonstrating that a fight is not a prerequisite between RHP-matched contestants. However, the duration of contests with or without fighting was the same. In contests without a fight, opponents spent more time on mutual investigation and non-contact displays such as parallel walking, which suggests that ritualized display may facilitate assessment and decision making. Winners low in aggressiveness invested more time in opponent investigation and display and showed substantially less aggression towards the loser after its retreat compared to aggressive winners. Aggressiveness influenced contest dynamics but did not predict the level of escalation. Prominent behavioural differences were found for the interaction between personality and outcome and we therefore recommend including this interaction in models where personality is considered. Analyses based on contest duration only would miss many of the subtleties which are shown here and we therefore encourage more detailed analyses of animal contests, irrespective of the level of contest escalation.

Feature Selection for Anomaly Detection Using Optical Emission Spectroscopy

To maintain the pace of development set by Moore's law, production processes in semiconductor manufacturing are becoming more and more complex. The development of efficient and interpretable anomaly detection systems is fundamental to keeping production costs low. As the dimension of process monitoring data can become extremely high anomaly detection systems are impacted by the curse of dimensionality, hence dimensionality reduction plays an important role. Classical dimensionality reduction approaches, such as Principal Component Analysis, generally involve transformations that seek to maximize the explained variance. In datasets with several clusters of correlated variables the contributions of isolated variables to explained variance may be insignificant, with the result that they may not be included in the reduced data representation. It is then not possible to detect an anomaly if it is only reflected in such isolated variables. In this paper we present a new dimensionality reduction technique that takes account of such isolated variables and demonstrate how it can be used to build an interpretable and robust anomaly detection system for Optical Emission Spectroscopy data.