Experimentally elevated plasma testosterone levels do not influence singing behaviour of male blue tits (Parus caeruleus) during the early breeding season

Sexual selection theory suggests that females might prefer males on the basis of testosterone (T)-dependent secondary sexual traits such as song. Correlational studies have linked high plasma T-levels to high diurnal song output. This has been confirmed in experiments where T-levels were kept high at times when natural T-levels have decreased. However, surprisingly little is known about the relation between T-levels during the early breeding season and song. In many passerine birds males sing at a high rate at dawn early in the breeding season, referred to as the dawn chorus. In blue tits (Parus caeruleus), the dawn chorus coincides with the fertile period of the female, whereas diurnal song occurs throughout the breeding season. Previous studies on blue tits showed that characteristics of the dawn chorus correlate with male reproductive success. We experimentally elevated plasma T-levels in male blue tits during the pre-fertile and fertile period. Our aim was to test whether increased plasma T-levels affect dawn song characteristics and increase the amount of diurnal song. Although T-implants successfully raised circulating T-levels, we did not find any difference between T- and control males in temporal performance measures of dawn song or in diurnal song output. Our results suggest that either there is no direct causal link between song output or quality and individual T-levels, or experimental manipulations of T-levels using implants do not permit detection of such effects during the early breeding season. Although we cannot exclude that individual T-levels are causally linked to other (e.g. structural) song parameters, our results cast doubt on T-dependence as the mechanisms that enforces honesty on song as a sexually selected trait.

The prevalence of nonadherence in difficult asthma

Rationale: With the advent of new and expensive therapies for severe refractory asthma, targeting the appropriate patients is important. An important issue is identifying nonadherence with current therapies. The extent of nonadherence in a population with difficult asthma has not been previously reported.

Objectives: To examine the prevalence of nonadherence to corticosteroid medication in a population with difficult asthma referred to a Specialist Clinic and to examine the relationship of poor adherence to asthma outcome.

Methods: General practitioner prescription refill records for the previous 6 months for inhaled combination therapy and short-acting ß-agonists were compared with initial prescriptions and expressed as a percentage. Blood plasma prednisolone and cortisol assay levels were used to examine the utility of these measures in assessing adherence to oral prednisolone. Patient demographics, hospital admissions, lung function, oral prednisolone courses, and quality of life data were analyzed to indentify the variables associated with reduced medication adherence.

Measurements and Main Results: A total of 182 patients were assessed. Sixty-three patients (35%) filled 50% or fewer inhaled medication prescriptions; 88% admitted poor adherence with inhaled therapy after initial denial. Twenty-one percent of patients filled more than 100% of presciptions, and 45% of subjects filled between 51 and 100% of prescriptions. Twenty-three of 51 patients (45%) prescribed oral steroids were found to be nonadherent.

Conclusions: A significant proportion of patients with difficult-to-control asthma remained nonadherent to corticosteroid therapy. Objective surrogate and direct measures of adherence should be performed as part of a difficult asthma assessment and are important before prescibing expensive novel biological therapies.

'Truth, Ethics and Efficacy in the Training of Actors for Role Play'

Krysia M. Yardley-Matwiejczuk has addressed the clinical and psychological implications of role-play (Role Play: Theory and Practice, Sage Publications, 1997) and Judith Ackroyd has thoroughly reassessed the place of roleplay in education (Role Reconsidered, Trentham Books, 2004). But there has been no systematic analysis of the implications for actor training of this growing area of employment. This paper interrogates some of the implications of role-play for actor trainers, particularly in relation to the need for a clear ethical framework governing spontaneous performance in non-theatrical environments. The paper also suggests guidelines on ‘distancing’ and ‘presencing’ techniques to equip actors to cope with the unpredictability of role play-based performance.

Experimenting with the Coxian Phase-Type Distribution to Uncover Suitable Fits

In the past few decades, Coxian phase-type distributions have become increasingly more popular as a means of representing survival times. In healthcare, they are considered suitable for modelling the length of stay of patients in hospital and more recently for modelling the patient waiting times in Accident and Emergency Departments. The Coxian phase-type distribution has not only been shown to provide a good representation of real survival data, but its interpretation seems reasonably initiative to the medical experts. The drawback, however, is fitting the distribution to the data. There have been many attempts at accurately estimating the Coxian phase-type parameters. This paper wishes to examine the most promising of the approaches reported in the literature to determine the most accurate. Three performance measures are introduced to assess the fitting process of the algorithms along with the likelihood values and AIC to examine the goodness of fit and complexity of the model. Previous research suggests that the fitting process is strongly influenced by the initial parameter estimates and the data itself being quite variable. To overcome this, one experiment in this research paper will use the same initial parameter values for each estimation and perform the fits on the data simulated from a Coxian phase-type distribution with known parameters.

Residential segregation in Northern Ireland in 2001: assessing the value of exploring spatial variations

Segregation measures have been applied in the study of many societies, and traditionally such measures have been used to assess the degree of division between social and cultural groups across urban areas, wider regions, or perhaps national areas. The degree of segregation can vary substantially from place to place even within very small areas. In this paper the substantive concern is with religious/political segregation in Northern Ireland—particularly the proportion of Protestants (often taken as an indicator of those who wish to retain the union with Britain) to Catholics (often taken as an indicator of those who favour union with the Republic of Ireland). Traditionally, segregation is measured globally—that is, across all units in a given area. A recent trend in spatial data analysis generally, and in segregation analysis specifically, is to assess local features of spatial datasets. The rationale behind such approaches is that global methods may obscure important spatial variations in the property of interest, and thus prevent full use of the data. In this paper the utility of local measures of residential segregation is assessed with reference to the religious/political composition of Northern Ireland. The paper demonstrates marked spatial variations in the degree and nature of residential segregation across Northern Ireland. It is argued that local measures provide highly useful information in addition to that provided in maps of the raw variables and in standard global segregation measures.

Investigating the efficiency of fitting Coxian phase-type distributions to health care data

Coxian phase-type distributions are becoming a popular means of representing survival times within a health care environment. They are favoured as they show a distribution as a system of phases and can allow for an easy visual representation of the rate of flow of patients through a system. Difficulties arise, however, in determining the parameter estimates of the Coxian phase-type distribution. This paper examines ways of making the fitting of the Coxian phase-type distribution less cumbersome by outlining different software packages and algorithms available to perform the fit and assessing their capabilities through a number of performance measures. The performance measures rate each of the methods and help in identifying the more efficient. Conclusions drawn from these performance measures suggest SAS to be the most robust package. It has a high rate of convergence in each of the four example model fits considered, short computational times, detailed output, convergence criteria options, along with a succinct ability to switch between different algorithms.

The role of regret minimisation in lifestyle choices affecting the risk of coronary heart disease

This paper introduces the discrete choice model-paradigm of Random Regret Minimisation (RRM) to the field of health economics. The RRM is a regret-based model that explores a driver of choice different from the traditional utility-based Random Utility Maximisation (RUM). The RRM approach is based on the idea that, when choosing, individuals aim to minimise their regret–regret being defined as what one experiences when a non-chosen alternative in a choice set performs better than a chosen one in relation to one or more attributes. Analysing data from a discrete choice experiment on diet, physical activity and risk of a fatal heart attack in the next ten years administered to a sample of the Northern Ireland population, we find that the combined use of RUM and RRM models offer additional information, providing useful behavioural insights for better informed policy appraisal.

Statistically-constrained shallow text marking:Techniques, evaluation paradigm and results

We present three natural language marking strategies based on fast and reliable shallow parsing techniques, and on widely available lexical resources: lexical substitution, adjective conjunction swaps, and relativiser switching. We test these techniques on a random sample of the British National Corpus. Individual candidate marks are checked for goodness of structural and semantic fit, using both lexical resources, and the web as a corpus. A representative sample of marks is given to 25 human judges to evaluate for acceptability and preservation of meaning. This establishes a correlation between corpus based felicity measures and perceived quality, and makes qualified predictions. Grammatical acceptability correlates with our automatic measure strongly (Pearson's r = 0.795, p = 0.001), allowing us to account for about two thirds of variability in human judgements. A moderate but statistically insignificant (Pearson's r = 0.422, p = 0.356) correlation is found with judgements of meaning preservation, indicating that the contextual window of five content words used for our automatic measure may need to be extended. © 2007 SPIE-IS&T.

Model selection for prognostic time-to-event gene signature discovery with applications in early breast cancer data

Model selection between competing models is a key consideration in the discovery of prognostic multigene signatures. The use of appropriate statistical performance measures as well as verification of biological significance of the signatures is imperative to maximise the chance of external validation of the generated signatures. Current approaches in time-to-event studies often use only a single measure of performance in model selection, such as logrank test p-values, or dichotomise the follow-up times at some phase of the study to facilitate signature discovery. In this study we improve the prognostic signature discovery process through the application of the multivariate partial Cox model combined with the concordance index, hazard ratio of predictions, independence from available clinical covariates and biological enrichment as measures of signature performance. The proposed framework was applied to discover prognostic multigene signatures from early breast cancer data. The partial Cox model combined with the multiple performance measures were used in both guiding the selection of the optimal panel of prognostic genes and prediction of risk within cross validation without dichotomising the follow-up times at any stage. The signatures were successfully externally cross validated in independent breast cancer datasets, yielding a hazard ratio of 2.55 [1.44, 4.51] for the top ranking signature.

Assessing the distribution of social-ecological resilience and risk: Ireland as a case study of the uneven impact of famine

Explanations for the causes of famine and food insecurity often reside at a high level of aggregation or abstraction. Popular models within famine studies have often emphasised the role of prime movers such as population stress, or the political-economic structure of access channels, as key determinants of food security. Explanation typically resides at the macro level, obscuring the presence of substantial within-country differences in the manner in which such stressors operate. This study offers an alternative approach to analyse the uneven nature of food security, drawing on the Great Irish famine of 1845–1852. Ireland is often viewed as a classical case of Malthusian stress, whereby population outstripped food supply under a pre-famine demographic regime of expanded fertility. Many have also pointed to Ireland's integration with capitalist markets through its colonial relationship with the British state, and country-wide system of landlordism, as key determinants of local agricultural activity. Such models are misguided, ignoring both substantial complexities in regional demography, and the continuity of non-capitalistic, communal modes of land management long into the nineteenth century. Drawing on resilience ecology and complexity theory, this paper subjects a set of aggregate data on pre-famine Ireland to an optimisation clustering procedure, in order to discern the potential presence of distinctive social–ecological regimes. Based on measures of demography, social structure, geography, and land tenure, this typology reveals substantial internal variation in regional social–ecological structure, and vastly differing levels of distress during the peak famine months. This exercise calls into question the validity of accounts which emphasise uniformity of structure, by revealing a variety of regional regimes, which profoundly mediated local conditions of food security. Future research should therefore consider the potential presence of internal variations in resilience and risk exposure, rather than seeking to characterise cases based on singular macro-dynamics and stressors alone.

TARGETED BIOMETRIC IMPERSONATION

When applying biometric algorithms to forensic verification, false acceptance and false rejection can mean a failure to identify a criminal, or worse, lead to the prosecution of individuals for crimes they did not commit. It is therefore critical that biometric evaluations be performed as accurately as possible to determine their legitimacy as a forensic tool. This paper argues that, for forensic verification scenarios, traditional performance measures are insufficiently accurate. This inaccuracy occurs because existing verification evaluations implicitly assume that an imposter claiming a false identity would claim a random identity rather than consciously selecting a target to impersonate. In addition to describing this new vulnerability, the paper describes a novel Targeted.. FAR metric that combines the traditional False Acceptance Rate (FAR) measure with a term that indicates how performance degrades with the number of potential targets. The paper includes an evaluation of the effects of targeted impersonation on an existing academic face verification system. This evaluation reveals that even with a relatively small number of targets false acceptance rates can increase significantly, making the analysed biometric systems unreliable.

Outperformance in exchange-traded fund pricing deviations: Generalized control of data snooping bias

An investigation into exchange-traded fund (ETF) outperforrnance during the period 2008-2012 is undertaken utilizing a data set of 288 U.S. traded securities. ETFs are tested for net asset value (NAV) premium, underlying index and market benchmark outperformance, with Sharpe, Treynor, and Sortino ratios employed as risk-adjusted performance measures. A key contribution is the application of an innovative generalized stepdown procedure in controlling for data snooping bias. We find that a large proportion of optimized replication and debt asset class ETFs display risk-adjusted premiums with energy and precious metals focused funds outperforming the S&P 500 market benchmark. 

A 1-D Vaneless Diffuser Model Accounting for the Effects of Spanwise Flow Stratification

The radial vaneless diffuser, though comparatively simple in terms of geometry, poses a significant challenge in obtaining an accurate 1-D based performance prediction due to the swirling, unsteady and distorted nature of the flow field. Turbocharger compressors specifically, with the ever increasing focus on achieving a wide operating range, have been recognised to operate with significant regions of spanwise separated flow, particularly at off design conditions.
Using a combination of single passage Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations and extensive gas stand test data for three geometries, the current study aims to evaluate the onset and impact of spanwise flow stratification in radial vaneless diffusers, and how the extent of the aerodynamic blockage presented to the flow throughout the diffuser varies with both geometry and operating condition. Having analysed the governing performance parameters and flow phenomena, a novel 1-D modelling method is presented and compared to an existing baseline method as well as test data to quantify the improvement in prediction accuracy achieved.

A 1-D radial vaneless diffuser model accounting for the effects of aerodynamic blockage

The radial vaneless diffuser, though comparatively simple in terms of geometry, poses a significant challenge in obtaining an accurate 1-D based performance prediction due to the swirling, unsteady and distorted nature of the flow field. Turbocharger compressors specifically, with the ever increasing focus on achieving a wide operating range, have been recognised to operate with significant regions of spanwise separated flow, particularly at off-design conditions.

Using a combination of single passage Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations and extensive gas stand test data for three geometries, the current study aims to evaluate the onset and impact of spanwise aerodynamic blockage in radial vaneless diffusers, and how the extent of the blocked region throughout the diffuser varies with both geometry and operating condition. Having analysed the governing performance parameters and flow phenomena, a novel 1-D modelling method is presented and compared to an existing baseline method as well as test data to quantify the improvement in prediction accuracy achieved.

Effects of scalding and dehairing of pig carcasses at abattoirs on the visibility of welfare-related lesions

There is increasing interest in developing abattoir-based welfare measures for pigs.The primary aim of this study was to determine the most appropriate place on theslaughter line to conduct assessments of welfare-related lesions, namely apparentaggression-related skin lesions (hereafter referred to as 'skin lesions'), loin bruising andapparent tail biting damage. The study also lent itself to an assessment of theprevalence of these lesions, and the extent to which they were linked with productionparameters. Finishing pigs processed at two abattoirs on the Island of Ireland (n =1950 in abattoir A, and n = 1939 in abattoir B) were used. Data were collected over 6days in each abattoir in July 2014. Lesion scoring took place at two points on theslaughter line: (1) at exsanguination (Slaughter Stage 1 [SS1]), and (2) followingscalding and dehairing of carcasses (Slaughter Stage 2 [SS2]). At both points, eachcarcass was assigned a skin and tail lesion score ranging from 0 (lesion absent) to 3 or4 (severe lesions), respectively. Loin bruising was recorded as present or absent.Differences in the percentage of pigs with observable lesions of each type werecompared between SS1 and SS2 using McNemar/McNemar-Bowker tests. Theassociations between each lesion type, and both cold carcass weight andcondemnations, were examined at batch level using Pearson's correlations. Batch wasdefined as the group of animals with a particular farm identification code on a givenday. The overall percentage of pigs with a visible skin lesion (i.e. score > 0) decreasedbetween SS1 and SS2 (P<0.001). However, the percentage of pigs with a severe skinlesion increased numerically from SS1 to SS2. The percentage of pigs with a visible taillesion and with loin bruising also increased between SS1 and SS2 (P<0.001). Therewas a positive correlation between the percentage of carcasses that were partiallycondemned, and the percentage of pigs with skin lesions, tail lesions and loin bruising(P<0.05). Additionally, as the batch-level frequency of each lesion type increased,average cold carcass weight decreased (P<0.001). These findings suggest that severeskin lesions, tail lesions and loin bruising are more visible on pig carcasses after theyhave been scalded and dehaired, and that this is when abattoir-based lesion scoringshould take place. The high prevalence of all three lesion types, and the links witheconomically important production parameters, suggests more research into identifying key risk factors is warranted.