Avoidance of filial cannibalism in the amphipod Gammarus pulex.

Adult animals that cannibalise juvenile conspecifics may gain energy but also risk filial cannibalism, that is, consumption of their own offspring. However, individuals vary in the magnitude of the costs and benefits of cannibalism depending on factors such as their current energy reserves or the probability that they have offspring in the vicinity. They may therefore also vary in the extent to which they participate in cannibalism. This study investigated whether the sex or brooding status of adult amphipods (Gammarus pulex) influenced whether they participated in cannibalism of juveniles. For females carrying embryos within their brood pouch, we also investigated two hypotheses to explain the presence or absence of cannibalistic behaviour by determining whether cannibalism was correlated with factors that might reflect energy demands (body length, brood size), or that might reflect a temporal change in cannibalistic behaviour (corresponding to stage of brood development). All reproductive classes of adults participated in some level of juvenile cannibalism, but females carrying offspring at an advanced stage of development (close to emergence from the brood pouch) consumed significantly fewer juveniles than other groups. Females thus appear to significantly reduce cannibalism of juveniles concurrent with the time when their own eggs are hatching within the brood pouch, prior to the release of their offspring. Because the experiment tested female responses to unfamiliar juveniles, this reflects a temporal change in behaviour rather than a response to phenotypic recognition cues, although additional direct recognition cannot be ruled out. Brooding females with large brood sizes or large body lengths, which might have disproportionately greater energetic demands, were not more likely to cannibalise juveniles. We also noted that juveniles that survived in trials where cannibalism occurred were significantly more likely to be found at the water surface, suggesting a possible adaptation to escape cannibalistic adults. Overall, our results provide evidence that amphipods use indirect temporal cues to avoid filial cannibalism.

Uncertainty, learning and growth

The paper extends Blackburn and Galindev's (Economics Letters, Vol. 79 (2003), pp. 417-421) stochastic growth model in which productivity growth entails both external and internal learning behaviour with a constant relative risk aversion utility function and productivity shocks. Consequently, the relationship between long-term growth and short-term volatility depends not only on the relative importance of each learning mechanism but also on a parameter measuring individuals' attitude towards risk.

Robust Dynamic Pricing Over Infinite Horizon in The Presence of Model Uncertainty( 2* Journal)

This paper studies a problem of dynamic pricing faced by a retailer with limited inventory, uncertain about the demand rate model, aiming to maximize expected discounted revenue over an infinite time horizon. The retailer doubts his demand model which is generated by historical data and views it as an approximation. Uncertainty in the demand rate model is represented by a notion of generalized relative entropy process, and the robust pricing problem is formulated as a two-player zero-sum stochastic differential game. The pricing policy is obtained through the Hamilton-Jacobi-Isaacs (HJI) equation. The existence and uniqueness of the solution of the HJI equation is shown and a verification theorem is proved to show that the solution of the HJI equation is indeed the value function of the pricing problem. The results are illustrated by an example with exponential nominal demand rate.

The Uncertainty of Experience: On George Brecht's Event Scores

George Brecht, an artist best known for his associations with Fluxus, is considered to have made significant contributions to emerging traditions of conceptual art and experimental music in the early 1960s. His Event scores, brief verbal scores that comprised lists of terms or open-ended instructions, provided a signature model for indeterminate composition and were ‘used extensively by virtually every Fluxus artist’. This article revisits Brecht’s early writings and research to argue that, while Event scores were adopted within Fluxus performance, they were intended as much more than performance devices. Specifically, Brecht conceived of his works as ‘structures of experience’ that, by revealing the underlying connections between chanced forms, could enable a kind of enlightenment rooted within an experience of a ‘unified reality’.

Transonic aeroelastic simulation for instability searches and uncertainty analysis

In this paper the use of eigenvalue stability analysis of very large dimension aeroelastic numerical models arising from the exploitation of computational fluid dynamics is reviewed. A formulation based on a block reduction of the system Jacobian proves powerful to allow various numerical algorithms to be exploited, including frequency domain solvers, reconstruction of a term describing the fluid–structure interaction from the sparse data which incurs the main computational cost, and sampling to place the expensive samples where they are most needed. The stability formulation also allows non-deterministic analysis to be carried out very efficiently through the use of an approximate Newton solver. Finally, the system eigenvectors are exploited to produce nonlinear and parameterised reduced order models for computing limit cycle responses. The performance of the methods is illustrated with results from a number of academic and large dimension aircraft test cases.

Reducing Uncertainty in Aeroelastic Flutter Boundaries Using Experimental Data

Flutter prediction as currently practiced is usually deterministic, with a single structural model used to represent an aircraft. By using interval analysis to take into account structural variability, recent work has demonstrated that small changes in the structure can lead to very large changes in the altitude at which
utter occurs (Marques, Badcock, et al., J. Aircraft, 2010). In this follow-up work we examine the same phenomenon using probabilistic collocation (PC), an uncertainty quantification technique which can eficiently propagate multivariate stochastic input through a simulation code,
in this case an eigenvalue-based fluid-structure stability code. The resulting analysis predicts the consequences of an uncertain structure on incidence of
utter in probabilistic terms { information that could be useful in planning
flight-tests and assessing the risk of structural failure. The uncertainty in
utter altitude is confirmed to be substantial. Assuming that the structural uncertainty represents a epistemic uncertainty regarding the
structure, it may be reduced with the availability of additional information { for example aeroelastic response data from a flight-test. Such data is used to update the structural uncertainty using Bayes' theorem. The consequent
utter uncertainty is significantly reduced across the entire Mach number range.

Unconscious Vigilance: Worldview Defense without Adaptations for Terror, Coalition or Uncertainty Management

Individuals subtly reminded of death, coalitional challenges, or feelings of uncertainty display exaggerated preferences for affirmations and against criticisms of their cultural in-groups. Terror management, coalitional psychology, and uncertainty management theories postulate this “worldview defense” effectas the output of mechanisms evolved either to allay the fear of death, foster social support, or reduce anxiety by increasing adherence to cultural values. In 4 studies, we report evidence for an alternative perspective. We argue that worldview defense owes to unconscious vigilance, a state of accentuatedreactivity to affective targets (which need not relate to cultural worldviews) that follows detection of subtle alarm cues (which need not pertain to death, coalitional challenges, or uncertainty). In Studies 1 and 2, death-primed participants produced exaggerated ratings of worldview-neutral affective targets. In Studies 3 and 4, subliminal threat manipulations unrelated to death, coalitional challenges, or uncertaintyevoked worldview defense. These results are discussed as they inform evolutionary interpretations of worldview defense and future investigations of the influence of unconscious alarm on judgment.

TheShifting Sands of Uncertainty: Risk Construction and BSE/vCJD

It is more than a decade since scientists in the UK put forward evidence of a link between the emergence of a new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD) in humans, and a diminishing epidemic of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy, or BSE, in cattle. In the wake of this anniversary, the paper revisits two scientific narratives of risk, forged at different points along the developmental pathway of BSE science, including a series of advisory reports provided to the UK government between 1989 and 1994, and a symposium held in 2001 to assess the impact of the Phillips Inquiry. While the primary pathology of BSE became apparent relatively early on, uncertainties remain about the origins of BSE and its human variant, vCJD. The paper examines the handling of this sensitivity, and its communication, within these key documents, noting changes in patterns of uncertainty construction over time.