Discrete Conditional Phase-type models utilising classification trees: Application to modelling health service capacities

Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) models consist of a process component (survival distribution) preceded by a set of related conditional discrete variables. This paper introduces a DC-Ph model where the conditional component is a classification tree. The approach is utilised for modelling health service capacities by better predicting service times, as captured by Coxian Phase-type distributions, interfaced with results from a classification tree algorithm. To illustrate the approach, a case-study within the healthcare delivery domain is given, namely that of maternity services. The classification analysis is shown to give good predictors for complications during childbirth. Based on the classification tree predictions, the duration of childbirth on the labour ward is then modelled as either a two or three-phase Coxian distribution. The resulting DC-Ph model is used to calculate the number of patients and associated bed occupancies, patient turnover, and to model the consequences of changes to risk status.

On the ability to metaphorize: Talking trees and singing tigers in the English classroom

This article reviews and discusses how metaphor as a trope has been regarded as an essential element in rhetorical approaches to reading and to writing. In addition it considers the extent to which, while metaphor-making is a fundamental cognitive capacity, a metaphorizing habit of mind may be especially pertinent to some aspects of aesthetic activity in English and it has salience also in a multimodal environment. There is exploration of how contemporary practice in the English classroom could accommodate and consolidate the ability to metaphorize.

Topological mappings between graphs, trees and generalized trees

We present novel topological mappings between graphs, trees and generalized trees that means between structured objects with different properties. The two major contributions of this paper are, first, to clarify the relation between graphs, trees and generalized trees, a graph class recently introduced. Second, these transformations provide a unique opportunity to transform structured objects into a representation that might be beneficial for a processing, e.g., by machine learning techniques for graph classification. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stable breeding despite variable feeding in two sympatric auk species

Capsule Despite substantial inter-annual and inter-specific variance in the composition of chick diet, the breeding success of Guillemots (Common Murres) Uria aalge and Razorbills Alca torda remained constant from 2008 to 2010.
Aims To examine inter-specific and inter-annual differences in breeding success, chick provisioning behaviour and predation between two sympatric auk species.
Methods Focal observations of breeding auks at Rathlin Island, Northern Ireland, during 2008, 2009 and 2010 recorded reproductive success, reasons for breeding failure, prey composition and quality and chick provisioning rates.
Results Breeding success of both species was stable over the three years, despite significant variance in the composition and quality of the diet provided to chicks. Razorbills experienced greater rates of failure than Guillemots owing to chick loss and had lower overall breeding success.
Conclusion Guillemot and Razorbill breeding success was independent of the composition and quality of prey items delivered to chicks. Inter-specific differences in reproductive success may have been attributed to greater rates of predation at Razorbill rather than Guillemot nests.

Nathusius' pipistrelle bats (Pipistrellus nathusii, Keyserling & Blasius 1839) breeding in Ireland

We describe the most westerly known maternity colony of Nathusius' pipistrelle bats (Pipistrellus nathusii). The bats were identified by using morphometric measurements and analysis of time-expanded echolocation and social calls. The roost, containing approximately 150 individuals, was located in a mid 19th century farm stable block and store house situated in parkland in County Antrim, Northern Ireland. The roost was visited on 30 April, I May and 22 June 1997. Over this period, 11 bats were caught: one adult male, five pregnant females, four lactating females and a juvenile male. Direct observation of behaviour patterns suggests that mating groups of P. nathusii may occur in Ireland as late as May. The migratory nature of this species is discussed.

Glacial Survival of Boreal Trees in Northern Scandinavia

It is commonly believed that trees were absent in Scandinavia during the last glaciation and first recolonized the Scandinavian Peninsula with the retreat of its ice sheet some 9000 years ago. Here, we show the presence of a rare mitochondrial DNA haplotype of spruce that appears unique to Scandinavia and with its highest frequency to the west—an area believed to sustain ice-free refugia during most of the last ice age. We further show the survival of DNA from this haplotype in lake sediments and pollen of Trøndelag in central Norway dating back ~10,300 years and chloroplast DNA of pine and spruce in lake sediments adjacent to the ice-free Andøya refugium in northwestern Norway as early as ~22,000 and 17,700 years ago, respectively. Our findings imply that conifer trees survived in ice-free refugia of Scandinavia during the last glaciation, challenging current views on survival and spread of trees as a response to climate changes.

Response to Comment on "Glacial Survival of Boreal Trees in Northern Scandinavia"

Birks et al. question our proposition that trees survived the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in Northern Scandinavia. We dispute their interpretation of our modern genetic data but agree that more work is required. Our field and laboratory procedures were robust; contamination is an unlikely explanation of our results. Their description of Endletvatn as ice-covered and inundated during the LGM is inconsistent with recent geological literature.

Alternate wetting and drying irrigation for rice in Bangladesh: Is it sustainable and has plant breeding something to offer?

The crop management practice of alternate wetting and drying (AWD) is being promoted by IRRI and the national research and extension program in Bangladesh and other parts of the world as a water-saving irrigation practice that reduces the environmental impact of dry season rice production through decreased water usage, and potentially increases yield. Evidence is growing that AWD will dramatically reduce the concentration of arsenic in harvested rice grains conferring a third major advantage over permanently flooded dry season rice production. AWD may also increase the concentration of essential dietary micronutrients in the grain. However, three crucial aspects of AWD irrigation require further investigation. First, why is yield generally altered in AWD? Second, is AWD sustainable economically (viability of farmers' livelihoods) and environmentally (aquifer water table heights) over long-term use? Third, are current cultivars optimized for this irrigation system? This paper describes a multidisciplinary research project that could be conceived which would answer these questions by combining advanced soil biogeochemistry with crop physiology, genomics, and systems biology. The description attempts to show how the breakthroughs in next generation sequencing could be exploited to better utilize local collections of germplasm and identify the molecular mechanisms underlying biological adaptation to the environment within the context of soil chemistry and plant physiology.