The suppression of q card selections: Evidence for deductive inference in Wason's Selection Task

The results of three experiments investigating the role of deductive inference in Wason's selection task are reported. In Experiment 1, participants received either a standard one-rule problem or a task containing a second rule, which specified an alternative antecedent. Both groups of participants were asked to select those cards that they considered were necessary to test whether the rule common to both problems was true or false. The results showed a significant suppression of q card selections in the two-rule condition. In addition there was weak evidence for both decreased p selection and increased not-q selection. In Experiment 2 we again manipulated number of rules and found suppression of q card selections only. Finally, in Experiment 3 we compared one- and two-rule conditions with a two-rule condition where the second rule specified two alternative antecedents in the form of a disjunction. The q card selections were suppressed in both of the two-rule conditions but there was no effect of whether the second rule contained one or two alternative antecedents. We argue that our results support the claim that people make inferences about the unseen side of the cards when engaging with the indicative selection task.

Cost performance of Irish credit unions

There are 424 credit unions in Ireland with assets under their control of €14.3bn and a membership of 2.5m which equates to about 66% of the economically active population, the highest penetration level of any country. That said, the Irish movement sits at a critical development stage, well behind mature markets such as Canada and the US in terms of product provision, technological sophistication, fragmentation of trade bodies and regulatory environment. This study analyses relative cost efficiency or performance of Irish credit unions using the popular frontier approach which measures an entity’s efficiency relative to a frontier of best practice. Parametric techniques are utilised, with variation in inefficiency being attributed to credit union-specific factors. The stochastic cost frontier parameters and the credit-union specific parameters are simultaneously estimated to produce valid statistical inferences. The study finds that the majority of Irish credit unions are not operating at optimal levels. It further highlights the factors which drive efficiency variation across credit unions and they include technological sophistication, ‘sponsor donated’ resources, interest rate differentials and the levels of bad debt written off

Are causal and intervention judgments inextricably linked? A developmental study.

The application of the formal framework of causal Bayesian Networks to children's causal learning provides the motivation to examine the link between judgments about the causal structure of a system, and the ability to make inferences about interventions on components of the system. Three experiments examined whether children are able to make correct inferences about interventions on different causal structures. The first two experiments examined whether children's causal structure and intervention judgments were consistent with one another. In Experiment 1, children aged between 4 and 8years made causal structure judgments on a three-component causal system followed by counterfactual intervention judgments. In Experiment 2, children's causal structure judgments were followed by intervention judgments phrased as future hypotheticals. In Experiment 3, we explicitly told children what the correct causal structure was and asked them to make intervention judgments. The results of the three experiments suggest that the representations that support causal structure judgments do not easily support simple judgments about interventions in children. We discuss our findings in light of strong interventionist claims that the two types of judgments should be closely linked. © 2011 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.


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A millennial record of environmental change in peat deposits from the Misten bog (East Belgium)

In this study, palaeoenvironmental changes recorded in the top metre of a peat profile (Misten bog, East Belgium) were investigated using a multiproxy approach. Proxies include bulk density, Ti and Si content, pollen, macrofossils, d13C on specific Sphagnum stems, and d13C–d18O on Sphagnum leaves. A high-resolution chronology was generated using 210Pb measurements and 22 14C AMS dates on carefully selected Sphagnum macrofossils. d13C only records large change in mire surface wetness. This is partly due to the fact that the core was taken from the edge of a hummock, which may make it difficult to track small isotopic changes. The d13C signal seems to be dependent upon the Sphagnum species composition. For example, a change between Sphagnum section Cuspidata towards Sphagnum imbricatum causes a significant drop in the d13C values. On the whole, the C and O isotopes record two shallow pool phases during the 8th–9th and the 13th centuries. Pollen and atmospheric soil dust (ASD) fluxes records increased human occupation in the area. There may be some climatic signals in the ASD flux, but they are difficult to decipher from the increasing human impact (land clearance, agriculture) during the last millennium. The variations in the proxies are not always synchronous, suggesting different triggering factors (temperature, wetness, windiness) for each proxy. This study also emphasizes that, compared to studies dealing with pollution using geochemical proxies, palaeoclimatic inferences from peat bogs need as many proxies as possible, together with highly accurate and precise age-models, in order to better understand climate variability and their consequences during the Holocene.

The link between logic, mathematics and imagination: evidence from children with developmental dyscalculia and mathematically gifted children

This study examined performance on transitive inference problems in children with developmental dyscalculia (DD), typically developing controls matched on IQ, working memory and reading skills, and in children with outstanding mathematical abilities. Whereas mainstream approaches currently consider DD as a domain-specific deficit, we hypothesized that the development of mathematical skills is closely related to the development of logical abilities, a domain-general skill. In particular, we expected a close link between mathematical skills and the ability to reason independently of one's beliefs. Our results showed that this was indeed the case, with children with DD performing more poorly than controls, and high maths ability children showing outstanding skills in logical reasoning about belief-laden problems. Nevertheless, all groups performed poorly on structurally equivalent problems with belief-neutral content. This is in line with suggestions that abstract reasoning skills (i.e. the ability to reason about content without real-life referents) develops later than the ability to reason about belief-inconsistent fantasy content.A video abstract of this article can be viewed at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90DWY3O4xx8.

Spatial autocorrelation in the response of soft-bottom marine benthos to gas extraction activities: The case of amphipods in the Ionian Sea

The spatial distributions of marine fauna and of pollution are both highly structured, and thus the resulting high levels of autocorrelation may invalidate conclusions based on classical statistical approaches. Here we analyse the close correlation observed between proxies for the disturbance associated with gas extraction activities and amphipod distribution patterns around four hydrocarbon platforms. We quantified the amount of variation independently accounted for by natural environmental variables, proxies for the disturbance caused by platforms, and spatial autocorrelation. This allowed us to demonstrate how each of these three factors significantly affects the community structure of amphipods. Sophisticated statistical techniques are required when taking into account spatial autocorrelation: nevertheless our data demonstrate that this approach not only enables the formulation of robust statistical inferences but also provides a much deeper understanding of the subtle interactions between human disturbance and natural factors affecting the structure of marine invertebrates communities. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Examination of Transformation Techniques to Investigate and Interpret Multivariate Geochemical Data Analysis: Tellus Case Study

This research aims to use the multivariate geochemical dataset, generated by the Tellus project, to investigate the appropriate use of transformation methods to maintain the integrity of geochemical data and inherent constrained behaviour in multivariate relationships. The widely used normal score transform is compared with the use of a stepwise conditional transform technique. The Tellus Project, managed by GSNI and funded by the Department of Enterprise Trade and Development and the EU’s Building Sustainable Prosperity Fund, involves the most comprehensive geological mapping project ever undertaken in Northern Ireland. Previous study has demonstrated spatial variability in the Tellus data but geostatistical analysis and interpretation of the datasets requires use of an appropriate methodology that reproduces the inherently complex multivariate relations. Previous investigation of the Tellus geochemical data has included use of Gaussian-based techniques. However, earth science variables are rarely Gaussian, hence transformation of data is integral to the approach. The multivariate geochemical dataset generated by the Tellus project provides an opportunity to investigate the appropriate use of transformation methods, as required for Gaussian-based geostatistical analysis. In particular, the stepwise conditional transform is investigated and developed for the geochemical datasets obtained as part of the Tellus project. The transform is applied to four variables in a bivariate nested fashion due to the limited availability of data. Simulation of these transformed variables is then carried out, along with a corresponding back transformation to original units. Results show that the stepwise transform is successful in reproducing both univariate statistics and the complex bivariate relations exhibited by the data. Greater fidelity to multivariate relationships will improve uncertainty models, which are required for consequent geological, environmental and economic inferences.

Reasoning on the basis of fantasy content:two studies with high-functioning autistic adolescents

Reasoning about problems with empirically false content can be hard, as the inferences that people draw are heavily influenced by their background knowledge. However, presenting empirically false premises in a fantasy context helps children and adolescents to disregard their beliefs, and to reason on the basis of the premises. The aim of the present experiments was to see if high-functioning adolescents with autism are able to utilize fantasy context to the same extent as typically developing adolescents when they reason about empirically false premises. The results indicate that problems with engaging in pretence in autism persist into adolescence, and this hinders the ability of autistic individuals to disregard their beliefs when empirical knowledge is irrelevant.

Modeling continuous self-report measures of perceived emotion using generalized additive mixed models

Emotion research has long been dominated by the “standard method” of displaying posed or acted static images of facial expressions of emotion. While this method has been useful it is unable to investigate the dynamic nature of emotion expression. Although continuous self-report traces have enabled the measurement of dynamic expressions of emotion, a consensus has not been reached on the correct statistical techniques that permit inferences to be made with such measures. We propose Generalized Additive Models and Generalized Additive Mixed Models as techniques that can account for the dynamic nature of such continuous measures. These models allow us to hold constant shared components of responses that are due to perceived emotion across time, while enabling inference concerning linear differences between groups. The mixed model GAMM approach is preferred as it can account for autocorrelation in time series data and allows emotion decoding participants to be modelled as random effects. To increase confidence in linear differences we assess the methods that address interactions between categorical variables and dynamic changes over time. In addition we provide comments on the use of Generalized Additive Models to assess the effect size of shared perceived emotion and discuss sample sizes. Finally we address additional uses, the inference of feature detection, continuous variable interactions, and measurement of ambiguity.

How useful are databases in environmental and criminal forensics?

Advances in computational and information technologies have facilitated the acquisition of geospatial information for regional and national soil and geology databases. These have been completed for a range of purposes from geological and soil baseline mapping to economic prospecting and land resource assessment, but have become increasingly used for forensic purposes. On the question of provenance of a questioned sample, the geologist or soil scientist will draw invariably on prior expert knowledge and available digital map and database sources in a ‘pseudo Bayesian’ approach. The context of this paper is the debate on whether existing (digital) geology and soil databases are indeed useful and suitable for forensic inferences. Published and new case studies are used to explore issues of completeness, consistency, compatibility and applicability in relation to the use of digital geology and soil databases in environmental and criminal forensics. One key theme that emerges is that, despite an acknowledgement that databases can be neither exhaustive nor precise enough to portray spatial variability at the scene of crime scale, coupled with expert knowledge, they play an invaluable role in providing background or
reference material in a criminal investigation. Moreover databases can offer an independent control set of samples.

Blocking in children's causal learning depends on working memory and reasoning abilities.

A sample of 99 children completed a causal learning task that was an analogue of the food allergy paradigm used with adults. The cue competition effects of blocking and unovershadowing were assessed under forward and backward presentation conditions. Children also answered questions probing their ability to make the inference posited to be necessary for blocking by a reasoning account of cue competition. For the first time, children's working memory and general verbal ability were also measured alongside their causal learning. The magnitude of blocking and unovershadowing effects increased with age. However, analyses showed that the best predictor of both blocking and unovershadowing effects was children's performance on the reasoning questions. The magnitude of the blocking effect was also predicted by children's working memory abilities. These findings provide new evidence that cue competition effects such as blocking are underpinned by effortful reasoning processes. 

Politeness and honesty contribute additively to the interpretation of scalar expressions

Scalar terms have been the focus of much recent attention. People can interpret such terms narrowly, for example, interpreting A or B to convey A or B but not both, on the grounds that a speaker would have explicitly used a more informative term (i.e., and) had he or she been in a position to do so; or they can interpret such terms broadly (A or B or both). Examined here are the effects of politeness contexts and self-rated honesty on people’s interpretation of the scalar connective or. In two experiments, it is shown that participants are less likely to adopt the narrow interpretation when the communicative context is face threatening, and that regardless of context, participants high in self-rated honesty adopt the narrow interpretation to a greater extent than those low in self-rated honesty. These results are consistent with the claim that an assumption of honesty underlies certain pragmatic inferences and suggest that personality may be an important source of individual differences in language interpretation.

The Engine of Thought Is a Hybrid: Roles of Associative and Structured Knowledge in Reasoning

Across a range of domains in psychology different theories assume different mental representations of knowledge. For example, in the literature on category-based inductive reasoning, certain theories (e.g., Rogers & McClelland, 2004; Sloutsky & Fisher, 2008) assume that the knowledge upon which inductive inferences are based is associative, whereas others (e.g., Heit & Rubinstein, 1994; Kemp & Tenenbaum, 2009; Osherson, Smith, Wilkie, López, & Shafir, 1990) assume that knowledge is structured. In this article we investigate whether associative and structured knowledge underlie inductive reasoning to different degrees under different processing conditions. We develop a measure of knowledge about the degree of association between categories and show that it dissociates from measures of structured knowledge. In Experiment 1 participants rated the strength of inductive arguments whose categories were either taxonomically or causally related. A measure of associative strength predicted reasoning when people had to respond fast, whereas causal and taxonomic knowledge explained inference strength when people responded slowly. In Experiment 2, we also manipulated whether the causal link between the categories was predictive or diagnostic. Participants preferred predictive to diagnostic arguments except when they responded under cognitive load. In Experiment 3, using an open-ended induction paradigm, people generated and evaluated their own conclusion categories. Inductive strength was predicted by associative strength under heavy cognitive load, whereas an index of structured knowledge was more predictive of inductive strength under minimal cognitive load. Together these results suggest that associative and structured models of reasoning apply best under different processing conditions and that the application of structured knowledge in reasoning is often effortful.

Temporal and statistical information in causal structure learning

Three experiments examined children’s and adults’ abilities to use statistical and temporal information to distinguish between common cause and causal chain structures. In Experiment 1, participants were provided with conditional probability information and/or temporal information and asked to infer the causal structure of a three-variable mechanical system that operated probabilistically. Participants of all ages preferentially relied on the temporal pattern of events in their inferences, even if this conflicted with statistical information. In Experiments 2 and 3, participants observed a series of interventions on the system, which in these experiments operated deterministically. In Experiment 2, participants found it easier to use temporal pattern information than statistical information provided as a result of interventions. In Experiment 3, in which no temporal pattern information was provided, children from 6-7 years, but not younger children, were able to use intervention information to make causal chain judgments, although they had difficulty when the structure was a common cause. The findings suggest that participants, and children in particular, may find it more difficult to use statistical information than temporal pattern information because of its demands on information processing resources. However, there may also be an inherent preference for temporal information.

A review of topographic controls on moraine distribution

Ice-marginal moraines are often used to reconstruct the dimensions of former ice masses, which are then used as proxies for palaeoclimate. This approach relies on the assumption that the distribution of moraines in the modern landscape is an accurate reflection of former ice margin positions during climatically controlled periods of ice margin stability. However, the validity of this assumption is open to question, as a number of additional, nonclimatic factors are known to influence moraine distribution. This review considers the role played by topography in this process, with specific focus on moraine formation, preservation, and ease of identification (topoclimatic controls are not considered). Published literature indicates that the importance of topography in regulating moraine distribution varies spatially, temporally, and as a function of the ice mass type responsible for moraine deposition. In particular, in the case of ice sheets and ice caps ( > 1000 km2), one potentially important topographic control on where in a landscape moraines are deposited is erosional feedback, whereby subglacial erosion causes ice masses to become less extensive over successive glacial cycles. For the marine-terminating outlets of such ice masses, fjord geometry also exerts a strong control on where moraines are deposited, promoting their deposition in proximity to valley narrowings, bends, bifurcations, where basins are shallow, and/or in the vicinity of topographic bumps. Moraines formed at the margins of ice sheets and ice caps are likely to be large and readily identifiable in the modern landscape. In the case of icefields and valley glaciers (10–1000 km2), erosional feedback may well play some role in regulating where moraines are deposited, but other factors, including variations in accumulation area topography and the propensity for moraines to form at topographic pinning points, are also likely to be important. This is particularly relevant where land-terminating glaciers extend into piedmont zones (unconfined plains, adjacent to mountain ranges) where large and readily identifiable moraines can be deposited. In the case of cirque glaciers (< 10 km2), erosional feedback is less important, but factors such as topographic controls on the accumulation of redistributed snow and ice and the availability of surface debris, regulate glacier dimensions and thereby determine where moraines are deposited. In such cases, moraines are likely to be small and particularly susceptible to post-depositional modification, sometimes making them difficult to identify in the modern landscape. Based on this review, we suggest that, despite often being difficult to identify, quantify, and mitigate, topographic controls on moraine distribution should be explicitly considered when reconstructing the dimensions of palaeoglaciers and that moraines should be judiciously chosen before being used as indirect proxies for palaeoclimate (i.e., palaeoclimatic inferences should only be drawn from moraines when topographic controls on moraine distribution are considered insignificant).