The two-way relationship between the Balanced Scorecard and Management Control Systems in organizations:Lessons from a Case Study

This paper reports a case study conducted in Quinta da Aveleda, one of
the three largest Portuguese wine companies. Our aim was to explore the
relationship established between a newly implemented Balanced Scorecard
(BSC) and the elements of the Management Control System (MCS) in the
organization. Thus, two specific objectives were pursued. Firstly, to identify
the influences (barriers, opportunities) of the existing MCS on the implementation
of the BSC. Secondly, to identify the impacts the BSC implementation
was able to exert on the configuration of the organization’s MCS.
We found that the budgeting process, the planning system, the information
infrastructure, and the organizational structure and culture were the elements
of the previous MCS that influenced the BSC implementation process.
Eventually, the BSC implementation led to important changes in the budgeting,
planning, reporting systems and processes. In order to explain these
findings, we briefly explored the main issues and factors accounting for the
scope and nature of the BSC’s impacts on Quinta da Aveleda. These issues
and factors were the mobilized organizational resources, the implementation
approach, the communication, and the organizational support.

PRECYSE: Cyber-attack Detection and Response for Industrial Control Systems

In this short paper, we present an integrated approach to detecting and mitigating cyber-attacks to modern interconnected industrial control systems. One of the primary goals of this approach is that it is cost effective, and thus whenever possible it builds on open-source security technologies and open standards, which are complemented with novel security solutions that address the specific challenges of securing critical infrastructures.

Reducible Diffusions with Time-Varying Transformations with Application to Short-Term Interest Rates

Reducible diffusions (RDs) are nonlinear transformations of analytically solvable Basic Diffusions (BDs). Hence, by construction RDs are analytically tractable and flexible diffusion processes. Existing literature on RDs has mostly focused on time-homogeneous transformations, which to a significant extent fail to explore the full potential of RDs from both theoretical and practical points of view. In this paper, we propose flexible and economically justifiable time variations to the transformations of RDs. Concentrating on the Constant Elasticity Variance (CEV) RDs, we consider nonlinear dynamics for our time-varying transformations with both deterministic and stochastic designs. Such time variations can greatly enhance the flexibility of RDs while maintaining sufficient tractability of the resulting models. In the meantime, our modeling approach enjoys the benefits of classical inferential techniques such as the Maximum Likelihood (ML). Our application to the UK and the US short-term interest rates suggests that from an empirical point of view time-varying transformations are highly relevant and statistically significant. We expect that the proposed models can describe more truthfully the dynamic time-varying behavior of economic and financial variables and potentially improve out-of-sample forecasts significantly.

Time-Varying Liquidity and Momentum Profits

A basic intuition is that arbitrage is easier when markets are most liquid. Surprisingly, we find that momentum profits are markedly larger in liquid market states. This finding is not explained by variation in liquidity risk, time-varying exposure to risk factors, or changes in macroeconomic condition, cross-sectional return dispersion, and investor sentiment. The predictive performance of aggregate market illiquidity for momentum profits uniformly exceed that of market return and market volatility states. While momentum strategies are unconditionally unprofitable in US, Japan, and Eurozone countries in the last decade, they are substantial following liquid market states.

Plant-wide predictive control for a thermal power plant based on a physical plant model

A constrained non-linear, physical model-based, predictive control (NPMPC) strategy is developed for improved plant-wide control of a thermal power plant. The strategy makes use of successive linearisation and recursive state estimation using extended Kalman filtering to obtain a linear state-space model. The linear model and a quadratic programming routine are used to design a constrained long-range predictive controller One special feature is the careful selection of a specific set of plant model parameters for online estimation, to account for time-varying system characteristics resulting from major system disturbances and ageing. These parameters act as nonstationary stochastic states and help to provide sufficient degrees-of-freedom to obtain unbiased estimates of controlled outputs. A 14th order non-linear plant model, simulating the dominant characteristics of a 200 MW oil-fired pou er plant has been used to test the NPMPC algorithm. The control strategy gives impressive simulation results, during large system disturbances and extremely high rate of load changes, right across the operating range. These results compare favourably to those obtained with the state-space GPC method designed under similar conditions.

Synchrophasor-Based Islanding Detection for Distributed Generation Systems Using Systematic Principal Component Analysis Approaches

Systematic principal component analysis (PCA) methods are presented in this paper for reliable islanding detection for power systems with significant penetration of distributed generations (DGs), where synchrophasors recorded by Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) are used for system monitoring. Existing islanding detection methods such as Rate-of-change-of frequency (ROCOF) and Vector Shift are fast for processing local information, however with the growth in installed capacity of DGs, they suffer from several drawbacks. Incumbent genset islanding detection cannot distinguish a system wide disturbance from an islanding event, leading to mal-operation. The problem is even more significant when the grid does not have sufficient inertia to limit frequency divergences in the system fault/stress due to the high penetration of DGs. To tackle such problems, this paper introduces PCA methods for islanding detection. Simple control chart is established for intuitive visualization of the transients. A Recursive PCA (RPCA) scheme is proposed as a reliable extension of the PCA method to reduce the false alarms for time-varying process. To further reduce the computational burden, the approximate linear dependence condition (ALDC) errors are calculated to update the associated PCA model. The proposed PCA and RPCA methods are verified by detecting abnormal transients occurring in the UK utility network.

Time series wind power forecasting based on variant Gaussian process and TLBO

Due to the variability and stochastic nature of wind power system, accurate wind power forecasting has an important role in developing reliable and economic power system operation and control strategies. As wind variability is stochastic, Gaussian Process regression has recently been introduced to capture the randomness of wind energy. However, the disadvantages of Gaussian Process regression include its computation complexity and incapability to adapt to time varying time-series systems. A variant Gaussian Process for time series forecasting is introduced in this study to address these issues. This new method is shown to be capable of reducing computational complexity and increasing prediction accuracy. It is further proved that the forecasting result converges as the number of available data approaches innite. Further, a teaching learning based optimization (TLBO) method is used to train the model and to accelerate
the learning rate. The proposed modelling and optimization method is applied to forecast both the wind power generation of Ireland and that from a single wind farm to show the eectiveness of the proposed method.

Threat Analysis of BlackEnergy Malware for Synchrophasor based Real-time Control and Monitoring in Smart Grid

The BlackEnergy malware targeting critical infrastructures has a long history. It evolved over time from a simple DDoS platform to a quite sophisticated plug-in based malware. The plug-in architecture has a persistent malware core with easily installable attack specific modules for DDoS, spamming, info-stealing, remote access, boot-sector formatting etc. BlackEnergy has been involved in several high profile cyber physical attacks including the recent Ukraine power grid attack in December 2015. This paper investigates the evolution of BlackEnergy and its cyber attack capabilities. It presents a basic cyber attack model used by BlackEnergy for targeting industrial control systems. In particular, the paper analyzes cyber threats of BlackEnergy for synchrophasor based systems which are used for real-time control and monitoring functionalities in smart grid. Several BlackEnergy based attack scenarios have been investigated by exploiting the vulnerabilities in two widely used synchrophasor communication standards: (i) IEEE C37.118 and (ii) IEC 61850-90-5. Specifically, the paper addresses reconnaissance, DDoS, man-in-the-middle and replay/reflection attacks on IEEE C37.118 and IEC 61850-90-5. Further, the paper also investigates protection strategies for detection and prevention of BlackEnergy based cyber physical attacks.

Convergence and tracking analysis of a variable normalised LMF (XE-NLMF) algorithm

The least-mean-fourth (LMF) algorithm is known for its fast convergence and lower steady state error, especially in sub-Gaussian noise environments. Recent work on normalised versions of the LMF algorithm has further enhanced its stability and performance in both Gaussian and sub-Gaussian noise environments. For example, the recently developed normalised LMF (XE-NLMF) algorithm is normalised by the mixed signal and error powers, and weighted by a fixed mixed-power parameter. Unfortunately, this algorithm depends on the selection of this mixing parameter. In this work, a time-varying mixed-power parameter technique is introduced to overcome this dependency. A convergence analysis, transient analysis, and steady-state behaviour of the proposed algorithm are derived and verified through simulations. An enhancement in performance is obtained through the use of this technique in two different scenarios. Moreover, the tracking analysis of the proposed algorithm is carried out in the presence of two sources of nonstationarities: (1) carrier frequency offset between transmitter and receiver and (2) random variations in the environment. Close agreement between analysis and simulation results is obtained. The results show that, unlike in the stationary case, the steady-state excess mean-square error is not a monotonically increasing function of the step size. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.