Modelling the impact of antibiotic use and infection control practices on the incidence of hospital-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus: a time-series analysis

Objectives: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a major nosocomial pathogen worldwide. A wide range of factors have been suggested to influence the spread of MRSA. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of antimicrobial drug use and infection control practices on nosocomial MRSA incidence in a 426-bed general teaching hospital in Northern Ireland.<br/><br/>Methods: The present research involved the retrospective collection of monthly data on the usage of antibiotics and on infection control practices within the hospital over a 5 year period (January 2000���December 2004). A multivariate ARIMA (time-series analysis) model was built to relate MRSA incidence with antibiotic use and infection control practices.<br/><br/>Results: Analysis of the 5 year data set showed that temporal variations in MRSA incidence followed temporal variations in the use of fluoroquinolones, third-generation cephalosporins, macrolides and amoxicillin/clavulanic acid (coefficients = 0.005, 0.03, 0.002 and 0.003, respectively, with various time lags). Temporal relationships were also observed between MRSA incidence and infection control practices, i.e. the number of patients actively screened for MRSA (coefficient = -0.007), the use of alcohol-impregnated wipes (coefficient = -0.0003) and the bulk orders of alcohol-based handrub (coefficients = -0.04 and -0.08), with increased infection control activity being associated with decreased MRSA incidence, and between MRSA incidence and the number of new patients admitted with MRSA (coefficient = 0.22). The model explained 78.4% of the variance in the monthly incidence of MRSA.<br/><br/>Conclusions: The results of this study confirm the value of infection control policies as well as suggest the usefulness of restricting the use of certain antimicrobial classes to control MRSA.

Testing the stability of the benefit transfer function for discrete choice contingent valuation data

This paper examines the stability of the benefit transfer function across 42 recreational forests in the British Isles. A working definition of reliable function transfer is Put forward, and a suitable statistical test is provided. A novel split sample method is used to test the sensitivity of the models' log-likelihood values to the removal of contingent valuation (CV) responses collected at individual forest sites, We find that a stable function improves Our measure of transfer reliability, but not by much. We conclude that, in empirical Studies on transferability, considerations of function stability are secondary to the availability and quality of site attribute data. Modellers' can study the advantages of transfer function stability vis-a-vis the value of additional information on recreation site attributes. (c) 2008 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Comment on ���Electron transport through correlated molecules computed using the time-independent Wigner function: Two critical tests���

The many-electron-correlated scattering (MECS) approach to quantum electronic transport was investigated in the linear-response regime [I. B��ldea and H. K��ppel, Phys. Rev. B 78, 115315 (2008). The authors suggest, based on numerical calculations, that the manner in which the method imposes boundary conditions is unable to reproduce the well-known phenomena of conductance quantization. We introduce an analytical model and demonstrate that conductance quantization is correctly obtained using open system boundary conditions within the MECS approach.

The impact of a PCR assay for candidemia on antifungal drug prescribing in critical care: an interrupted time series pilot study.

Objective To evaluate the feasibility of conducting a definitive study to assess the impact of introducing a rapid PCR-based test for candidemia on antifungal drug prescribing. Method Prospective, single centre, interrupted time series study consisting of three periods of six months' duration. The assay was available during the second period, during which the PCR assay was available for routine use by physicians Monday���Friday with guaranteed 24-h turnaround time. For each period total antifungal drug use, expressed as treatment-days, was recorded and an adjustment was made to exclude estimated use for proven candidemia. Also, during the intervention period, antifungal prescribing decisions for up to 72 h after each PCR result became available were recorded as either concordant or discordant with that result. Results While overall antifungal use remained relatively stable throughout, after adjustment for candidemia, there was a 38% reduction in use following introduction of the PCR test; however, this was nonsignificant at the 95% level. During the intervention period overall concordance between the PCR result and prescribing decisions was 84%. Conclusions The PCR assay for candidemia was requested, prescribing decisions were generally concordant with the results produced and there was an apparent decrease in antifungal prescription, although this was sustained even after withdrawal of the intervention; these findings should be more thoroughly evaluated in a larger trial.

NHS Inquiries: A Time Series Analysis

This article provides a time series analysis of NHS public inquiries and inquiries related to health against the background of recent policy changes which are centralizing hazardous incident investigations within agencies such as the Healthcare Commission.

Development of an Arcellacean (testate lobose amoebae) based transfer function for sedimentary phosphorous in lakes.

Arcellacea (testate lobose amoebae) communities were assessed from 73 sediment-water interface samples collected from 33 lakes in urban and rural settings within the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Ontario, Canada, as well as from forested control areas in the Lake Simcoe area, Algonquin Park and eastern Ontario. The results were used to: (1) develop a statistically rigorous arcellacean-based training set for sedimentary phosphorus (Olsen P (OP)) loading; and (2) derive a transfer function to reconstruct OP levels during the post-European settlement era (AD1870s onward) using a chronologically well-constrained core from Haynes Lake on the environmentally sensitive Oak Ridges Moraine, within the GTA. Ordination analysis indicated that OP most influenced arcellacean assemblages, explaining 6.5% (p &lt; 0.005) of total variance. An improved training set where the influence of other important environmental variables (e.g. total organic carbon, total nitrogen, Mg) was reduced, comprised 40 samples from 31 lakes, and was used to construct a transfer function for lacustrine arcellaceans for sedimentary phosphorus (Olsen P) using tolerance downweighted weighted averaging (WA-Tol) with inverse deshrinking (RMSEPjack-77pp; r2jack = 0.68). The inferred reconstruction indicates that OP levels remained near pre-settlement background levels from settlement in the late AD 1970s through to the early AD 1970s. Since OP runoff from both forests and pasture is minimal, early agricultural land use within the lake catchment was as most likely pasture and/or was used to grow perennial crops such as Timothy-grass for hay. A significant increase in inferred OP concentration beginning ~ AD 1972 may have been related to a change in crops (e.g. corn production) in the catchment resulting in more runoff, and the introduction of chemical fertilizers. A dramatic decline in OP after ~ AD 1985 probably corresponds to a reduction in chemical fertilizer use related to advances in agronomy, which permitted a more precise control over required fertilizer application. Another significant increase in OP levels after ~ AD 1995 may have been related to the construction of a large golf course upslope and immediately to the north of Haynes Lake in AD 1993, where significant fertilizer use is required to maintain the fairways. These results demonstrate that arcellaceans have great potential for reconstructing lake water geochemistry and will complement other proxies (e.g. diatoms) in paleolimnological research.

Modified Information Criteria and Selection of Long Memory Time Series Models

The problem of model selection of a univariate long memory time series is investigated once a semi parametric estimator for the long memory parameter has been used. Standard information criteria are not consistent in this case. A Modified Information Criterion (MIC) that overcomes these difficulties is introduced and proofs that show its asymptotic validity are provided. The results are general and cover a wide range of short memory processes. Simulation evidence compares the new and existing methodologies and empirical applications in monthly inflation and daily realized volatility are presented.

The influence of market deregulation on fast food consumption and body mass index:A cross-national time series analysis

Objective <br/>To investigate the effect of fast food consumption on mean population body mass index (BMI) and explore the possible influence of market deregulation on fast food consumption and BMI.<br/><br/>Methods <br/>The within-country association between fast food consumption and BMI in 25 high-income member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development between 1999 and 2008 was explored through multivariate panel regression models, after adjustment for per capita gross domestic product, urbanization, trade openness, lifestyle indicators and other covariates. The possible mediating effect of annual per capita intake of soft drinks, animal fats and total calories on the association between fast food consumption and BMI was also analysed. Two-stage least squares regression models were conducted, using economic freedom as an instrumental variable, to study the causal effect of fast food consumption on BMI.<br/><br/>Findings <br/>After adjustment for covariates, each 1-unit increase in annual fast food transactions per capita was associated with an increase of 0.033 kg/m2 in age-standardized BMI (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.013���0.052). Only the intake of soft drinks ��� not animal fat or total calories ��� mediated the observed association (��: 0.030; 95% CI: 0.010���0.050). Economic freedom was an independent predictor of fast food consumption (��: 0.27; 95% CI: 0.16���0.37). When economic freedom was used as an instrumental variable, the association between fast food and BMI weakened but remained significant (��: 0.023; 95% CI: 0.001���0.045).<br/><br/>Conclusion <br/>Fast food consumption is an independent predictor of mean BMI in high-income countries. Market deregulation policies may contribute to the obesity epidemic by facilitating the spread of fast food.