Spatial Distribution of Soil Geochemistry in Geoforensics

Two common scenarios in Geoforensics (definition in text) are considered: the provenance, or localization of unknown samples and the question of sample variability at scenes of crime/alibi locations. Both have been discussed in forensic and soil science publications, but mostly within a theoretical or non-forensic context. These previous publications provide context for the two case study scenarios (one actual, one based on a range of criminal casework) that consider provenance and variability. A challenging scientific question in geoforensics is the provenance question: ‘where may this sample have come from?’ A question the Tellus data can assist in answering. The question of variation between samples maybe less of a challenge, yet variation between a suspect sample within a scene of crime requires detailed sampling. Variation on a larger (tens to hundreds of kilometres) scale may provide useful intelligence on where a sample came from. To summarise, databases such as Tellus and TellusBorder may be used as effective tools to assist in the search for the origin of displaced soil and sediment

Fusion of Static and Temporal Information for Threat Evaluation in Sensor Networks

In many CCTV and sensor network based intelligent surveillance systems, a number of attributes or criteria are used to individually evaluate the degree of potential threat of a suspect. The outcomes for these attributes are in general from analytical algorithms where data are often pervaded with uncertainty and incompleteness. As a result, such individual threat evaluations are often inconsistent, and individual evaluations can change as time elapses. Therefore, integrating heterogeneous threat evaluations with temporal influence to obtain a better overall evaluation is a challenging issue. So far, this issue has rarely be considered by existing event reasoning frameworks under uncertainty in sensor network based surveillance. In this paper, we first propose a weighted aggregation operator based on a set of principles that constraints the fusion of individual threat evaluations. Then, we propose a method to integrate the temporal influence on threat evaluation changes. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of our system with a decision support event modeling framework using an airport security surveillance scenario.

Forensic analysis of wooden safety matches - A case study

In this case, an individual was suspected of attempting to burn materials potentially relating to a murder case. A number of spent and unspent matches were seized at the scene by police for forensic examination. Coincidentally, a police raid at the suspect's house revealed a number of matchboxes, all of the same brand, containing matches that had a visual similarity to those recovered at the scene. Stable Isotope Profiling (SIP) was used to assess whether matches could either be distinguished or shown to be indistinguishable by 13C and 2H isotopic composition. These results were then compared to those from the X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis of match heads and microscopy of the wood. SIP showed the scene matches and seized matches to be different, which was confirmed by XRD and microscopy analyses.

Using interviewer random effects to remove selection bias from HIV prevalence estimates

Background: Selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates occurs if non-participation in testing is correlated with HIV status. Longitudinal data suggests that individuals who know or suspect they are HIV positive are less likely to participate in testing in HIV surveys, in which case methods to correct for missing data which are based on imputation and observed characteristics will produce biased results. Methods: The identity of the HIV survey interviewer is typically associated with HIV testing participation, but is unlikely to be correlated with HIV status. Interviewer identity can thus be used as a selection variable allowing estimation of Heckman-type selection models. These models produce asymptotically unbiased HIV prevalence estimates, even when non-participation is correlated with unobserved characteristics, such as knowledge of HIV status. We introduce a new random effects method to these selection models which overcomes non-convergence caused by collinearity, small sample bias, and incorrect inference in existing approaches. Our method is easy to implement in standard statistical software, and allows the construction of bootstrapped standard errors which adjust for the fact that the relationship between testing and HIV status is uncertain and needs to be estimated. Results: Using nationally representative data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, we illustrate our approach with new point estimates and confidence intervals (CI) for HIV prevalence among men in Ghana (2003) and Zambia (2007). In Ghana, we find little evidence of selection bias as our selection model gives an HIV prevalence estimate of 1.4% (95% CI 1.2% – 1.6%), compared to 1.6% among those with a valid HIV test. In Zambia, our selection model gives an HIV prevalence estimate of 16.3% (95% CI 11.0% - 18.4%), compared to 12.1% among those with a valid HIV test. Therefore, those who decline to test in Zambia are found to be more likely to be HIV positive. Conclusions: Our approach corrects for selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates, is possible to implement even when HIV prevalence or non-participation is very high or very low, and provides a practical solution to account for both sampling and parameter uncertainty in the estimation of confidence intervals. The wide confidence intervals estimated in an example with high HIV prevalence indicate that it is difficult to correct statistically for the bias that may occur when a large proportion of people refuse to test.

Adjusting HIV Prevalence Estimates for Non-participation: an Application to Demographic Surveillance

Introduction: HIV testing is a cornerstone of efforts to combat the HIV epidemic, and testing conducted as part of surveillance provides invaluable data on the spread of infection and the effectiveness of campaigns to reduce the transmission of HIV. However, participation in HIV testing can be low, and if respondents systematically select not to be tested because they know or suspect they are HIV positive (and fear disclosure), standard approaches to deal with missing data will fail to remove selection bias. We implemented Heckman-type selection models, which can be used to adjust for missing data that are not missing at random, and established the extent of selection bias in a population-based HIV survey in an HIV hyperendemic community in rural South Africa.

Methods: We used data from a population-based HIV survey carried out in 2009 in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. In this survey, 5565 women (35%) and 2567 men (27%) provided blood for an HIV test. We accounted for missing data using interviewer identity as a selection variable which predicted consent to HIV testing but was unlikely to be independently associated with HIV status. Our approach involved using this selection variable to examine the HIV status of residents who would ordinarily refuse to test, except that they were allocated a persuasive interviewer. Our copula model allows for flexibility when modelling the dependence structure between HIV survey participation and HIV status.

Results: For women, our selection model generated an HIV prevalence estimate of 33% (95% CI 27–40) for all people eligible to consent to HIV testing in the survey. This estimate is higher than the estimate of 24% generated when only information from respondents who participated in testing is used in the analysis, and the estimate of 27% when imputation analysis is used to predict missing data on HIV status. For men, we found an HIV prevalence of 25% (95% CI 15–35) using the selection model, compared to 16% among those who participated in testing, and 18% estimated with imputation. We provide new confidence intervals that correct for the fact that the relationship between testing and HIV status is unknown and requires estimation.

Conclusions: We confirm the feasibility and value of adopting selection models to account for missing data in population-based HIV surveys and surveillance systems. Elements of survey design, such as interviewer identity, present the opportunity to adopt this approach in routine applications. Where non-participation is high, true confidence intervals are much wider than those generated by standard approaches to dealing with missing data suggest.

Impact of age, various forms of cataract, and visual acuity on whole-field scotopic sensitivity screening for glaucoma in rural Taiwan.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of age, various forms of cataract, and visual acuity on whole-field scotopic sensitivity screening for glaucoma in a rural population. DESIGN: Clinic-based study with population-based recruitment. SETTING: Jin Shan Township near Taipei, Taiwan. SUBJECTS: Three hundred forty-six residents (ages, > or = 40 years) of Jin Shan Township. INTERVENTIONS: Whole-field scotopic testing, ophthalmoscopy with dilation of the pupils, cataract grading against photographic standards, and screening visual field testing in a random one-third subsample. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Whole-field scotopic sensitivity (in decibels) and diagnostic status as a case of glaucoma, glaucoma suspect, or normal. RESULTS: Participants in Jin Shan Township did not differ significantly in the rate of blindness, low visual acuity, or family history of glaucoma from a random sample of nonrespondents. Scotopic sensitivity testing detected 100% (6/6) of subjects with open-angle glaucoma at a specificity of 80.2%. The mean +/- SE scotopic sensitivity for six subjects with open-angle glaucoma (32.78 +/- 1.51 dB) differed significantly from that of 315 normal individuals (38.51 +/- 0.22 dB), when adjusted for age and visual acuity (P = .05, t test). With linear regression modeling, factors that correlated significantly with scotopic sensitivity were intraocular pressure, screening visual field, best corrected visual acuity, presence of cortical cataract, and increasing age. CONCLUSIONS: Although cataract affects the whole-field scotopic threshold, it appears that scotopic testing may be of value in field-based screening for glaucoma.

Determinants and heritability of intraocular pressure and cup-to-disc ratio in a defined older population.

PURPOSE:

To investigate the heritability of intraocular pressure (IOP) and cup-to-disc ratio (CDR) in an older well-defined population.

DESIGN:

Family-based cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS:

Through the population-based Salisbury Eye Evaluation study, we recruited 726 siblings (mean age, 74.7 years) in 284 sibships.

METHODS:

Intraocular pressure and CDR were measured bilaterally for all participants. The presence or absence of glaucoma was determined by a glaucoma specialist for all probands on the basis of visual field, optic nerve appearance, and history. The heritability of IOP was calculated as twice the residual between-sibling correlation of IOP using linear regression and generalized estimating equations after adjusting for age, gender, mean arterial pressure, race, self-reported diabetes status, and history of systemic steroid use. The heritability of CDR was calculated using the same model and adjustments as above, while also adjusting for IOP.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:

Heritability and determinants of IOP and CDR, and impact of siblings' glaucoma status on IOP and CDR.

RESULTS:

We estimated the heritability to be 0.29 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.12-0.46) for IOP and 0.56 (95% CI, 0.35-0.76) for CDR in this population. Mean IOP in siblings of glaucomatous probands was statistically significantly higher than in siblings of normal probands (mean difference, 1.02 mmHg; P = 0.017). The mean CDR in siblings of glaucomatous probands was 0.07 (or 19%) larger than in siblings of glaucoma suspect referrals (P = 0.045) and siblings of normal probands (P = 0.004).

CONCLUSIONS:

In this elderly population, we found CDR to be highly heritable and IOP to be moderately heritable. On average, siblings of glaucoma patients had higher IOPs and larger CDRs than siblings of nonglaucomatous probands.

Ocular comorbidities among cataract-operated patients in rural China: the caring is hip Study of Cataract Outcomes and Uptake of Services (SCOUTS), report No. 3.

PURPOSE: To determine the prevalence and impact on vision and visual function of ocular comorbidities in a rural Chinese cataract surgical program, and to devise strategies to reduce their associated burden. DESIGN: Cross-sectional cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Persons undergoing cataract surgery by one of two recently trained local surgeons at a government-run village-level hospital in rural Guangdong between August 8 and December 31, 2005. INTERVENTIONS: Eligible subjects were invited to return for a comprehensive ocular examination and visual function interview 10 to 14 months after surgery. Prevalent ocular comorbid conditions were identified. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Presenting and best-corrected vision, visual function, and treatability of the comorbidity. RESULTS: Of 313 persons operated within the study window, 242 (77%) could be contacted by telephone; study examinations and interviews were performed on 176 (74%). Examined subjects had a mean age of 69.4+/-10.5 years, 116 (66%) were female, and 149 (85%) had been blind (presenting vision < or = 6/60) in the operative eye before surgery. Among unoperated eyes, 89 of 109 (81.7%) had > or =1 ocular comorbidities, whereas for operated eyes the corresponding proportion was 72 of 211 (34.1%). The leading comorbidity among operated eyes was refractive error (43/72 [59.7%]), followed by glaucoma/glaucoma suspect (14/72 [19.4%]), whereas for unoperated eyes, it was cataract (80/92 [87.0%]), followed by refractive error (12/92 [13.0%]). Among operated eyes with comorbidities, 90.3% (65/72) had > or =1 comorbidities that were treatable. In separate models adjusting for age and gender, persons with > or =1 comorbidities in the operated eye had significantly worse presenting vision (P<0.001) than those without such findings, but visual function (P = 0.197) and satisfaction with surgery (P = 0.796) were unassociated with comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: Ocular comorbidities are highly prevalent among persons undergoing cataract surgery in this rural Asian setting, and their presence is significantly associated with poorer visual outcomes. The fact that the great majority of comorbidities encountered in this program are treatable suggests that strategies to reduce their impact can be successful.