Economic modelling of antenatal screening and ultrasound scanning programmes for identification of fetal abnormalities

Objective Within the framework of a health technology assessment and using an economic model, to determine the most clinically and cost effective policy of scanning and screening for fetal abnormalities in early pregnancy. Design A discrete event simulation model of 50,000 singleton pregnancies. Setting Maternity services in Scotland. Population Women during the first 24 weeks of their pregnancy. Methods The mathematical model was populated with data on uptake of screening, prevalence, detection and false positive rates for eight fetal abnormalities and with costs for ultrasound scanning and serum screening. Inclusion of abnormalities was based on the relative prevalence and clinical importance of conditions and the availability of data. Six strategies for the identification of abnormalities prenatally including combinations of first and second trimester ultrasound scanning and first and second trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities were compared. Main outcome measures The number of abnormalities detected and missed, the number of iatrogenic losses resulting from invasive tests, the total cost of strategies and the cost per abnormality detected were compared between strategies. Results First trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities costs more than second trimester screening but results in fewer iatrogenic losses. Strategies which include a second trimester ultrasound scan result in more abnormalities being detected and have lower costs per anomaly detected. Conclusions The preferred strategy includes both first and second trimester ultrasound scans and a first trimester screening test for chromosomal abnormalities. It has been recommended that this policy is offered to all women in Scotland.

Statistical modelling of cement slurries for self compacting SIFCON containing silica fume

This paper reports a study carried out to develop a self-compacting fibre reinforced concrete containing a high fibre content with slurry infiltrated fibre concrete (SIFCON). The SIFCON was developed with 10% of steel fibres which are infiltrated by self-compacting cement slurry without any vibration. Traditionally, the infiltration of the slurry into the layer of fibres is carried out under intensive vibration. A two-level fractional factorial design was used to optimise the properties of cement-based slurries with four independent variables, such as dosage of silica fume, dosage of superplasticiser, sand content, and water/cement ratio (W/C). Rheometer, mini-slump test, Lombardi plate cohesion meter, J-fibre penetration test, and induced bleeding were used to assess the behaviour of fresh cement slurries. The compressive strengths at 7 and 28 days were also measured. The statistical models are valid for slurries made with W/C of 0.40 to 0.50, 50 to 100% of sand by mass of cement, 5 to 10% of silica fume by mass of cement, and SP dosage of 0.6 to 1.2% by mass of cement. This model makes it possible to evaluate the effect of individual variables on measured parameters of fresh cement slurries. The proposed models offered useful information to understand trade-offs between mix variables and compare the responses obtained from various test methods in order to optimise self-compacting SIFCON.

Linear quadratic and tumour control probability modelling in external beam radiotherapy

The standard linear-quadratic (LQ) survival model for external beam radiotherapy is reviewed with particular emphasis on studying how different schedules of radiation treatment planning may be affected by different tumour repopulation kinetics. The LQ model is further examined in the context of tumour control probability (TCP) models. The application of the Zaider and Minerbo non-Poissonian TCP model incorporating the effect of cellular repopulation is reviewed. In particular the recent development of a cell cycle model within the original Zaider and Minerbo TCP formalism is highlighted. Application of this TCP cell-cycle model in clinical treatment plans is explored and analysed.

Modelling the comet assay

The single-cell gel electrophoresis technique or comet assay is widely regarded as a quick and reliable method of analysing DNA damage in individual cells. It has a proven track record from the fields of biomonitoring to nutritional studies. The assay operates by subjecting cells that are fixed in agarose to high salt and detergent lysis, thus removing all the cellular content except the DNA. By relaxing the DNA in an alkaline buffer, strands containing breaks are released from supercoiling. Upon electrophoresis, these strands are pulled out into the agarose, forming a tail which, when stained with a fluorescent dye, can be analysed by fluorescence microscopy. The intensity of this tail reflects the amount of DNA damage sustained. Despite being such an established and widely used assay, there are still many aspects of the comet assay which are not fully understood. The present review looks at how the comet assay is being used, and highlights some of its limitations. The protocol itself varies among laboratories, so results from similar studies may vary. Given such discrepancies, it would be attractive to break the assay into components to generate a mathematical model to investigate specific parameters.

Computational simulation methodologies for mechanobiological modelling: a cell-centred approach to neointima development in stents

The design of medical devices could be very much improved if robust tools were available for computational simulation of tissue response to the presence of the implant. Such tools require algorithms to simulate the response of tissues to mechanical and chemical stimuli. Available methodologies include those based on the principle of mechanical homeostasis, those which use continuum models to simulate biological constituents, and the cell-centred approach, which models cells as autonomous agents. In the latter approach, cell behaviour is governed by rules based on the state of the local environment around the cell; and informed by experiment. Tissue growth and differentiation requires simulating many of these cells together. In this paper, the methodology and applications of cell-centred techniques-with particular application to mechanobiology-are reviewed, and a cell-centred model of tissue formation in the lumen of an artery in response to the deployment of a stent is presented. The method is capable of capturing some of the most important aspects of restenosis, including nonlinear lesion growth with time. The approach taken in this paper provides a framework for simulating restenosis; the next step will be to couple it with more patient-specific geometries and quantitative parameter data.

Modelling road traffic accidents using macroscopic second-order models of traffic flow

In this paper, we introduce a macroscopic model for road traffic accidents along highway sections. We discuss the motivation and the derivation of such a model, and we present its mathematical properties. The results are presented by means of examples where a section of a crowded one-way highway contains in the middle a cluster of drivers whose dynamics are prone to road traffic accidents. We discuss the coupling conditions and present some existence results of weak solutions to the associated Riemann Problems. Furthermore, we illustrate some features of the proposed model through some numerical simulations. © The authors 2012.

Modelling 3D camera movement for vibration characterisation and multiple object identification with application to lighting assessment

Utilising cameras as a means to survey the surrounding environment is becoming increasingly popular in a number of different research areas and applications. Central to using camera sensors as input to a vision system, is the need to be able to manipulate and process the information captured in these images. One such application, is the use of cameras to monitor the quality of airport landing lighting at aerodromes where a camera is placed inside an aircraft and used to record images of the lighting pattern during the landing phase of a flight. The images are processed to determine a performance metric. This requires the development of custom software for the localisation and identification of luminaires within the image data. However, because of the necessity to keep airport operations functioning as efficiently as possible, it is difficult to collect enough image data to develop, test and validate any developed software. In this paper, we present a technique to model a virtual landing lighting pattern. A mathematical model is postulated which represents the glide path of the aircraft including random deviations from the expected path. A morphological method has been developed to localise and track the luminaires under different operating conditions. © 2011 IEEE.

Multibody modelling of gabion beams for impact applications

Gabions are stone-filled wire containers which are frequently used as retaining walls. However, due to their high mass, relatively low cost and visual appeal, a row of single gabion blocks, joined at the ends, has the potential to be used as a roadside impact absorption device where traditional steel or concrete devices may not be suitable. To evaluate such application, the shear and bending deformation of gabions under vehicle impact need to be investigated. In this paper, the shear response of a single gabion block is analytically modelled and a gabion beam multibody model is developed using a discretisation method to capture the deformability of the gabion structure. The material properties of the gabion beam are adopted from experimental values available in the literature and the modelling is statically validated over a three-point bending test and a distributed loading test. The results show that the discretised multibody modelling can be effectively used to describe the static deformation behaviour of gabion blocks.

Prediction of surface roughness during hard turning of AISI 4340 steel (69 HRC)

In this study, 39 sets of hard turning (HT) experimental trials were performed on a Mori-Seiki SL-25Y (4-axis) computer numerical controlled (CNC) lathe to study the effect of cutting parameters in influencing the machined surface roughness. In all the trials, AISI 4340 steel workpiece (hardened up to 69 HRC) was machined with a commercially available CBN insert (Warren Tooling Limited, UK) under dry conditions. The surface topography of the machined samples was examined by using a white light interferometer and a reconfirmation of measurement was done using a Form Talysurf. The machining outcome was used as an input to develop various regression models to predict the average machined surface roughness on this material. Three regression models - Multiple regression, Random Forest, and Quantile regression were applied to the experimental outcomes. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first to apply Random Forest or Quantile regression techniques to the machining domain. The performance of these models was compared to each other to ascertain how feed, depth of cut, and spindle speed affect surface roughness and finally to obtain a mathematical equation correlating these variables. It was concluded that the random forest regression model is a superior choice over multiple regression models for prediction of surface roughness during machining of AISI 4340 steel (69 HRC).