Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened forest-restricted birds in Madagascar

The greatest common threat to birds in Madagascar has historically been from anthropogenic deforestation. During recent decades, global climate change is now also regarded as a significant threat to biodiversity. This study uses Maximum Entropy species distribution modeling to explore how potential climate change could affect the distribution of 17 threatened forest endemic bird species, using a range of climate variables from the Hadley Center's HadCM3 climate change model, for IPCC scenario B2a, for 2050. We explore the importance of forest cover as a modeling variable and we test the use of pseudo-presences drawn from extent of occurrence distributions. Inclusion of the forest cover variable improves the models and models derived from real-presence data with forest layer are better predictors than those from pseudo-presence data. Using real-presence data, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on the distribution of nine species. We could not predict the impact of climate change on eight species because of low numbers of occurrences. All nine species were predicted to experience reductions in their total range areas, and their maximum modeled probabilities of occurrence. In general, species range and altitudinal contractions follow the reductive trend of the Maximum presence probability. Only two species (Tyto soumagnei and Newtonia fanovanae) are expected to expand their altitude range. These results indicate that future availability of suitable habitat at different elevations is likely to be critical for species persistence through climate change. Five species (Eutriorchis astur, Neodrepanis hypoxantha, Mesitornis unicolor, Euryceros prevostii, and Oriola bernieri) are probably the most vulnerable to climate change. Four of them (E. astur, M. unicolor, E. prevostii, and O. bernieri) were found vulnerable to the forest fragmentation during previous research. Combination of these two threats in the future could negatively affect these species in a drastic way. Climate change is expected to act differently on each species and it is important to incorporate complex ecological variables into species distribution models.

Unidirectional hybridization at a species' range boundary: implications for habitat tracking

Aim Introgressive hybridization between a locally rare species and a more abundant congener can drive population extinction via genetic assimilation, or the replacement of the rare species gene pool with that of the common species. To date, however, few studies have assessed the effects of such processes at the limits of species' distribution ranges. In this study, we have examined the potential for hybridization between range-edge populations of the wintergreen Pyrola minor and sympatric populations of Pyrola grandiflora. Location Qeqertarsuaq, Greenland and Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. Methods Genetic analysis of samples from Greenland and Canada was carried out using a combination of nuclear and chloroplast single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Results Analysis of nuclear SNPs confirmed hybridization in populations of morphologically intermediate individuals, as well as revealing the existence of cryptic hybrids in ostensibly morphologically pure P. minor populations. Analysis of chloroplast SNPs revealed that this hybridization is unidirectional and suggests that hybrids originate via pollen swamping of P. minor by the more common P. grandiflora. Main conclusions Extensive unidirectional hybridization may lead to the extinction of peripheral populations of P. minor where the two species grow sympatrically. Extinction could occur as a result of genetic assimilation where F1s are fertile, or via the removal of unidirectionally pollinated sterile F1s, or by a combination of these processes. This could compromise the ability of species to respond to climate change via habitat tracking, although the final outcome of these processes may ultimately depend on the rate of global climate change and its effect on the species' distributions. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Phylogeographic analysis of North American populations of the parasitic herbaceous plant Monotropa hypopitys reveals a complex history of range expansion from multiple late glacial refugia

Aim We carried out a phylogeographic study across the range of the herbaceous plant species Monotropa hypopitys L. in North America to determine whether its current disjunct distribution is due to recolonization from separate eastern and western refugia after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Location North America: Pacific Northwest and north-eastern USA/south-eastern Canada. Methods Palaeodistribution modelling was carried out to determine suitable climatic regions for M. hypopitys at the LGM. We analysed between 155 and 176 individuals from 39 locations spanning the species' entire range in North America. Sequence data were obtained for the chloroplast rps2 gene (n=168) and for the nuclear ITS region (n=158). Individuals were also genotyped for eight microsatellite loci (n=176). Interpolation of diversity values was used to visualize the range-wide distribution of genetic diversity for each of the three marker classes. Minimum spanning networks were constructed showing the relationships between the rps2 and ITS haplotypes, and the geographical distributions of these haplotypes were plotted. The numbers of genetic clusters based on the microsatellite data were estimated using Bayesian clustering approaches. Results The palaeodistribution modelling indicated suitable climate envelopes for M. hypopitys at the LGM in both the Pacific Northwest and south-eastern USA. High levels of genetic diversity and endemic haplotypes were found in Oregon, the Alexander Archipelago, Wisconsin, and in the south-eastern part of the species' distribution range. Main conclusions Our results suggest a complex recolonization history for M. hypopitys in North America, involving persistence in separate eastern and western refugia. A generally high degree of congruence between the different marker classes analysed indicated the presence of multiple refugia, with at least two refugia in each area. In the west, putative refugia were identified in Oregon and the Alexander Archipelago, whereas eastern refugia may have been located in the southern part of the species' current distribution, as well as in the 'Driftless Area'. These findings are in contrast to a previous study on the related species Orthilia secunda, which has a similar disjunct distribution to M. hypopitys, but which appears to have recolonized solely from western refugia. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Climate change and the cost of conserving species in Madagascar

We examined the cost of conserving species as climate changes using Madagascar as an example. We used a Maxent species distribution model to predict the ranges of 74 plant species endemic to the forests of Madagascar from 2000-2080 in three climate scenarios. We set a conservation target of achieving 10,000 hectares of forest cover for each species, and calculated the cost of achieving this target under each climate scenario. We interviewed natural forest restoration project managers and conducted a literature review to obtain the net present cost per hectare of management actions to maintain or establish forest cover. For each species we added hectares of land from lowest to highest cost per additional year of forest cover until the conservation target was achieved throughout the time period. Climate change was predicted to reduce the size of species’ ranges, the overlap between species’ ranges and existing or planned protected areas, and the overlap between species’ ranges and existing forest. As a result, climate change increased the cost of achieving the conservation target by necessitating successively more costly management actions: additional management within existing protected areas (US$0-60/ha), avoidance of forest degradation (loss of biomass) in community-managed areas ($160-576/ha), avoidance of deforestation in unprotected areas ($252-1069/ha), and establishment of forest on non-forested land within protected areas ($802-2710/ha), in community-managed areas ($962-3226/ha), and in unprotected areas ($1054-3719/ha). Our results suggest that though forest restoration may be required for the conservation of some species as climate changes, it is more cost-effective to maintain existing forest wherever possible.

Spatial autocorrelation in the response of soft-bottom marine benthos to gas extraction activities: The case of amphipods in the Ionian Sea

The spatial distributions of marine fauna and of pollution are both highly structured, and thus the resulting high levels of autocorrelation may invalidate conclusions based on classical statistical approaches. Here we analyse the close correlation observed between proxies for the disturbance associated with gas extraction activities and amphipod distribution patterns around four hydrocarbon platforms. We quantified the amount of variation independently accounted for by natural environmental variables, proxies for the disturbance caused by platforms, and spatial autocorrelation. This allowed us to demonstrate how each of these three factors significantly affects the community structure of amphipods. Sophisticated statistical techniques are required when taking into account spatial autocorrelation: nevertheless our data demonstrate that this approach not only enables the formulation of robust statistical inferences but also provides a much deeper understanding of the subtle interactions between human disturbance and natural factors affecting the structure of marine invertebrates communities. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identifying optimal feeding habitat and proposed Marine Protected Areas (pMPAs) for the black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) suggests a need for complementary management approaches

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are an important conservation tool. For marine predators, recent research has focused on the use of Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to identify proposed sites. We used a maximum entropy modelling approach based on static and dynamic oceanographic parameters to determine optimal feeding habitat for black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) at two colonies during two consecutive breeding seasons (2009 and 2010). A combination of Geographic Positioning System (GPS) loggers and Time-Depth Recorders (TDRs) attributed feeding activity to specific locations. Feeding areas were <30 km from the colony, <40 km from land, in productive waters, 25–175m deep. The predicted extent of optimal habitat declined at both colonies between 2009 and 2010 coincident with declines in reproductive success. Whilst the area of predicted optimal habitat changed, its location was spatially stable between years. There was a close match between observed feeding locations and habitat predicted as optimal at one colony (Lambay Island, Republic of Ireland), but a notable mismatch at the other (Rathlin Island, Northern Ireland). Designation of an MPA at Rathlin may, therefore, be less effective than a similar designation at Lambay perhaps due to the inherent variability in currents and sea state in the North Channel compared to the comparatively stable conditions in the central Irish Sea. Current strategies for designating MPAs do not accommodate likely future redistribution of resources due to climate change. We advocate the development of new approaches including dynamic MPAs that track changes in optimal habitat and non-colony specific ecosystem management.

Expertly validated models and phylogenetically-controlled analysis suggests responses to climate change are related to species traits in the Order Lagomorpha

Climate change during the last five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species’ bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed ‘modellable’ within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov’s Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions.

Uses and abuses of fractal methodology in ecology

Fractals have found widespread application in a range of scientific fields, including ecology. This rapid growth has produced substantial new insights, but has also spawned confusion and a host of methodological problems. In this paper, we review the value of fractal methods, in particular for applications to spatial ecology, and outline potential pitfalls. Methods for measuring fractals in nature and generating fractal patterns for use in modelling are surveyed. We stress the limitations and the strengths of fractal models. Strictly speaking, no ecological pattern can be truly fractal, but fractal methods may nonetheless provide the most efficient tool available for describing and predicting ecological patterns at multiple scales.

Bird diversity and environmental gradients in Britain:a test of the species-energy hypothesis

1. We tested the species diversity-energy hypothesis using the British bird fauna. This predicts that temperature patterns should match diversity patterns. We also tested the hypothesis that the mechanism operates directly through effects of temperature on thermoregulatory loads; this further predicts that seasonal changes in temperature cause matching changes in patterns of diversity, and that species' body mass is influential.

2. We defined four assemblages using migration status (residents or visitors) and season (summer or winter distribution). Records of species' presence/absence in a total of 2362, 10 x 10-km, quadrats covering most of Britain were used, together with a wide selection of habitat, topographic and seasonal climatic data.

3. We fitted a logistic regression model to each species' distribution using the environmental data. We then combined these individual species models mathematically to form a diversity model. Analysis of this composite model revealed that summer temperature was the factor most strongly associated with diversity.

4. Although the species-energy hypothesis was supported, the direct mechanism, predicting an important role for body mass and matching seasonal patterns of change between diversity and temperature, was not supported.

5. However, summer temperature is the best overall explanation for bird diversity patterns in Britain. It is a better predictor of winter diversity than winter temperature. Winter diversity is predicted more precisely from environmental factors than summer diversity.

6. Climate change is likely to influence the diversity of different areas to different extents; for resident species, low diversity areas may respond more strongly as climate change progresses. For winter visitors, higher diversity areas may respond more strongly, while summer visitors are approximately neutral.

Phylogeographic insights into cryptic glacial refugia

The glacial episodes of the Quaternary (2.6 million years ago–present) were a major factor in shaping the present-day distributions of extant flora and fauna, with expansions and contractions of the ice sheets rendering large areas uninhabitable for most species. Fossil records suggest that many species survived glacial maxima by retreating to refugia, usually at lower latitudes. Recently, phylogeographic studies have given support to the existence of previously unknown, or cryptic, refugia. Here we summarise many of these insights into the glacial histories of species in cryptic refugia gained through phylogeographic approaches. Understanding such refugia might be important as the Earth heads into another period of climate change, in terms of predicting the effects on species distribution and survival.

Range-edge effects promote clonal growth in peripheral populations of the one-sided wintergreen Orthilia secunda

Existing in suboptimal conditions is a frequent occurrence for species inhabiting the cusp of their ecological range. In range-edge populations of plants, the scarcity of suitable habitat may be reflected in small population sizes which may result in increased self-pollination and/or inbreeding and an increase in the incidence of clonal reproduction. These factors may result in a decrease in levels of genetic diversity and a loss of potential adaptive variation that may compromise species' ability to cope with changes in their environment, an issue that is particularly relevant today with the current concern surrounding global climate change and its effect on species' distributional ranges. In the present study, we have compared the levels of clonal reproduction in the one-sided wintergreen Orthilia secunda (L.) House in (1) populations from its main continuous distribution range, (2) populations occurring on the limits of the continuous range, and (3) peripheral populations outwith the species' continuous distribution range. Range-edge populations in Scotland and Sweden displayed significantly lower genotypic richness and diversity than those from the main area of the species' distribution in these countries. Populations from Ireland, which occur in the temperate zone rather than the boreal conditions that are the preferred habitat for the species, and which represent relict populations left over from cooler periods in the Earth's history, displayed no within-population genetic diversity, suggesting a complete lack of sexual reproduction. Furthermore, the genetic distinctiveness of the Irish populations, which contained alleles not found in either the Scottish or the Swedish populations, highlights the value of 'trailing edge' populations and supports the concept of 'parochial conservation', namely the conservation of species that are locally rare but globally common.

Genetic differentiation of Euterpe edulis Mart. populations estimated by AFLP analysis

Heart-of-palm (Euterpe edulis Mart.) is a wild palm with a wide distribution throughout the Atlantic Rainforest. Populations of E. edulis represent important renewable natural resources but are currently under threat from predatory exploitation. Furthermore, because the species is indigenous to the Atlantic Rainforest, which is located in the most economically developed and populated region of Brazil, social and economic pressures have devastated heart-of-palm forests. In order to estimate the partitioning of genetic variation of endangered E. edulis populations, 429 AFLP markers were used to analyse 150 plants representing 11 populations of the species distribution range. Analysis of the genetic structure of populations carried out using analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) revealed moderate genetic variation within populations (57.4%). Genetic differentiation between populations (F-ST = 0.426) was positively correlated with geographical distance. These results could be explained by the historical fragmentation of the Atlantic coastal region, together with the life cycle and mating system The data obtained in this work should have important implications for conservation and future breeding programmes of E. edulis.

Trends in candidemia and antifungal susceptibility in a university hospital in Northern Ireland 2001-2006

Objectives: To describe the species distribution and antifungal susceptibility trends for documented episodes of candidemia at the Royal Hospitals, Belfast, 2001-2006. Methods: Laboratory-based retrospective observational study of all episodes of candidemia. Results: There were 151 episodes of candidemia. The species recovered were: 96 C. albicans; 26 C. glabrata; 18 C. parapsilosis; five C. tropicalis; four C. guilliermondii; one C. famata and one C. dubliniensis. We separated the data into two periods 2001-2003 and 2004-2006; contrary to the findings of other investigators, there was a notable trends toward increasing frequency of C. albicans and decreasing frequency of non-albicans species over time. Although the proportion of C. albicans, C. parapsilosis and C. tropicalis isolates susceptible to fluconazole was unchanged over time, a trend of decreased susceptibility of C. glabrata to fluconazole was noted over the six-year period. Overall, 73% and 7.7% of C. glabrata isolates had susceptible-dose-dependent and resistant phenotypes, respectively. The percentage of C. glabrata isolates susceptible to fluconazole (MIC

Refining Risk Estimates Using Models (Chapter 4)

In 2004 nineteen scientists from fourteen institutions in seven countries
collaborated in the landmark study described in chapter 2 (Thomas et al., 2004a). This chapter provides an overview of results of studies published subsequently and assesses how much, and why, new results differ from those of Thomas et al.
Some species distribution modeling (SDM) studies are directly comparable to the Thomas et al. estimates. Others using somewhat different methods nonetheless illuminate whether the original estimates were of the right order of magnitude. Climate similarity models (Williams et al., 2007; Williams and Jackson, 2007), biome, and vegetation dynamic models (Perry and Enright, 2006) have also been
applied in the context of climate change, providing interesting opportunities
for comparison and cross-validation with results from SDMs.
This chapter concludes with an assessment of whether the range of extinction risk estimates presented in 2004 can be narrowed, and whether the mean estimate should be revised upward or downward. To set the stage for these analyses, the chapter begins with brief reviews of advances in climate modeling and species modeling since 2004.

Protected area networks and savannah bird biodiversity in the face of climate change and land degradation

The extent to which climate change might diminish the efficacy of protected areas is one of the most pressing conservation questions. Many projections suggest that climate-driven species distribution shifts will leave protected areas impoverished and species inadequately protected while other evidence suggests that intact ecosystems within protected areas will be resilient to change. Here, we tackle this problem empirically. We show how recent changes in distribution of 139 Tanzanian savannah bird species are linked to climate change, protected area status and land degradation. We provide the first evidence of climate-driven range shifts for an African bird community. Our results suggest that the continued maintenance of existing protected areas is an appropriate conservation response to the challenge of climate and environmental change.