Fast and frugal models of clinical judgement in novice and expert physicians

Our objective was to study whether “compensatory” models provide better descriptions of clinical judgment than fast and frugal models, according to expertise and experience. Fifty practitioners appraised 60 vignettes describing a child with an exacerbation of asthma and rated their propensities to admit the child. Linear logistic (LL) models of their judgments were compared with a matching heuristic (MH) model that searched available cues in order of importance for a critical value indicating an admission decision. There was a small difference between the 2 models in the proportion of patients allocated correctly (admit or not-admit decisions), 91.2% and 87.8%, respectively. The proportion allocated correctly by the LL model was lower for consultants than juniors, whereas the MH model performed equally well for both. In this vignette study, neither model provided any better description of judgments made by consultants or by pediatricians compared to other grades and specialties.

Outgrown asthma does not mean no airways inflammation

Although some asthmatic children seem to recover from their asthma, 30–80% develop asthma again in later life. The underlying risk factors are unknown. The hypothesis for this study was that children with apparently outgrown asthma would have underlying airway inflammation. Nonbronchoscopic bronchoalveolar lavage was performed on normal children (n=35) and children who had wheezed previously (n=35). Eosinophils were raised in the lavage fluid of atopic children who had apparently outgrown asthma (median (interquartile range) 0.36 (0.05–0.74) compared to controls 0.10 (0–0.18), p=0.002). There was no relationship between length of remission and degree of airways eosinophilia. Thus, there is persistent airways inflammation in some children with outgrown asthma and this may be a risk factor for future relapse.

Exhaled nitric oxide correlates with airway eosinophils in childhood asthma

Background: Exhaled nitric oxide has been proposed as a marker for airway inflammation in asthma. The aim of this study was to compare exhaled nitric oxide levels with inflammatory cells and mediators in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid from asthmatic and normal children.

Methods: Children were recruited from elective surgical lists and a non-bronchoscopic bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) was performed after induction of anaesthesia. Exhaled nitric oxide (parts per billion) was measured by two techniques: tidal breathing and restricted breath.

Results: Median (interquartile range) exhaled nitric oxide measured by restricted breath was increased in asthmatics compared with normal children (24.3 (10.5–66.5) v 9.7 (6.5–16.5), difference between medians 14.6 (95% CI 5.1 to 29.9), p=0.001). In asthmatic children exhaled nitric oxide correlated significantly with percentage eosinophils (r=0.78, p<0.001 (tidal breathing) and r=0.78, p<0.001 (restricted breath)) and with eosinophilic cationic protein (r=0.53, p<0.01 restricted breath)), but not with other inflammatory cells in the BAL fluid. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curves for the prediction of the presence of eosinophilic airways inflammation by exhaled nitric oxide (tidal and restricted) was 0.80 and 0.87, respectively.

Conclusions: Exhaled nitric oxide correlates closely with percentage eosinophils in BAL fluid in asthmatic children and is therefore likely to be a useful non-invasive marker of airway inflammation.