Order Flow and the Monetary Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set

We propose an exchange rate model that is a hybrid of the conventional specification with monetary fundamentals and the Evans–Lyons microstructure approach. We estimate a model augmented with order flow variables, using a unique data set: almost 100 monthly observations on interdealer order flow on dollar/euro and dollar/yen. The augmented macroeconomic, or “hybrid,” model exhibits greater in-sample stability and out of sample forecasting improvement vis-à-vis the basic macroeconomic and random walk specifications.

Emission lines of Fe XI in the 257-407 A wavelength region observed in solar spectra from EIS/Hinode and SERTS

Theoretical emission-line ratios involving Fe xi transitions in the 257-407 A wavelength range are derived using fully relativistic calculations of radiative rates and electron impact excitation cross-sections. These are subsequently compared with both long wavelength channel Extreme-Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) spectra from the Hinode satellite (covering 245-291 A) and first-order observations (similar to 235-449 A) obtained by the Solar Extreme-ultraviolet Research Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS). The 266.39, 266.60 and 276.36 A lines of Fe xi are detected in two EIS spectra, confirming earlier identifications of these features, and 276.36 A is found to provide an electron density (N-e) diagnostic when ratioed against the 257.55 A transition. Agreement between theory and observation is found to be generally good for the SERTS data sets, with discrepancies normally being due to known line blends, while the 257.55 A feature is detected for the first time in SERTS spectra. The most useful Fe xi electron density diagnostic is found to be the 308.54/352.67 intensity ratio, which varies by a factor of 8.4 between N-e = 108 and 1011 cm-3, while showing little temperature sensitivity. However, the 349.04/352.67 ratio potentially provides a superior diagnostic, as it involves lines which are closer in wavelength, and varies by a factor of 14.7 between N-e = 108 and 1011 cm-3. Unfortunately, the 349.04 A line is relatively weak, and also blended with the second-order Fe x 174.52 A feature, unless the first-order instrument response is enhanced.

Breast-feeding and childhood-onset type 1 diabetes:A pooled analysis of individual participant data from 43 observational studies

OBJECTIVE: To investigate if there is a reduced risk of type 1 diabetes in children breastfed or exclusively breastfed by performing a pooled analysis with adjustment for recognized confounders.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Relevant studies were identified from literature searches using MEDLINE, Web of Science, and EMBASE. Authors of relevant studies were asked to provide individual participant data or conduct prespecified analyses. Meta-analysis techniques were used to combine odds ratios (ORs) and investigate heterogeneity between studies.
RESULTS: Data were available from 43 studies including 9,874 patients with type 1 diabetes. Overall, there was a reduction in the risk of diabetes after exclusive breast-feeding for >2 weeks (20 studies; OR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.64-0.88), the association after exclusive breast-feeding for >3 months was weaker (30 studies; OR = 0.87, 95% CI 0.75-1.00), and no association was observed after (nonexclusive) breast-feeding for >2 weeks (28 studies; OR = 0.93, 95% CI 0.81-1.07) or >3 months (29 studies; OR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.78-1.00). These associations were all subject to marked heterogeneity (I(2) = 58, 76, 54, and 68%, respectively). In studies with lower risk of bias, the reduced risk after exclusive breast-feeding for >2 weeks remained (12 studies; OR = 0.86, 95% CI 0.75-0.99), and heterogeneity was reduced (I(2) = 0%). Adjustments for potential confounders altered these estimates very little.
CONCLUSIONS: The pooled analysis suggests weak protective associations between exclusive breast-feeding and type 1 diabetes risk. However, these findings are difficult to interpret because of the marked variation in effect and possible biases (particularly recall bias) inherent in the included studies.

Immunophenotypic shift in a case of mycosis fungoides with vitreous invasion

The case of an 82-year-old man who developed intraocular extension from mycosis fungoides, a cutaneous T-cell lymphoma, is presented. The patient died soon after intra-ocular involvement occurred. Immunohistochemistry of a skin biopsy, taken early in the course of the disease, disclosed a predominance of T cells with a helper/inducer phenotype (CD4). However, an intraocular infiltrate obtained 7 years later contained mostly T cells with a suppressor/cytotoxic phenotype (CD8). The occurrence of ocular invasion, the change in immunophenotype, and the predominant proliferation of CD8 lymphocytes may have been related to the poor outcome in this patient.

Cannibale, Frigidaire, and the Multitude: Post-1977 Italian Comics through Radical Theory

A direct connection between comics and contemporary critical theory is to be found in the activity of the collective of artists who created "Cannibale" and "Frigidaire", the two most innovative Italian comics magazines of the late 1970s and early 1980s. The work of Andrea Pazienza, Filippo Scòzzari, Stefano Tamburini, Tanino Liberatore and Massimo Mattioli should be regarded as an expression of the radical movements from which Marxist Autonomist thinkers such as Antonio Negri, Franco ‘Bifo’ Berardi and Paolo Virno also emerged in the same period. As a consequence, the writings of the latter can be used to analyse the narrative and visual style, the recurring themes, and the editorial characteristics of the comics of the former. Moreover, an interesting parallel can also be drawn between the work of the most influential of these artists, Andrea Pazienza, and the thought of another prominent Italian philosopher, Giorgio Agamben, whose earliest books were published at that time too. The aim of this article is to show that the ideas of a number of the thinkers who have recently become internationally known as representatives of radical Italian theory, are useful to understand the work of this group of comics authors.

Food of the Blue

An episode of BBC Radio 4's detective series 'Baldi'. Paolo Baldi finds himself in a world of superstar academics, but why are their bloodless corpses littering the college? And what is that thing they drink to rejuvenate the venerable institution?

Intercepting the First Pass:Rapid Categorization is Suppressed for Unseen Stimuli

The operations and processes that the human brain employs to achieve fast visual categorization remain a matter of debate. A first issue concerns the timing and place of rapid visual categorization and to what extent it can be performed with an early feed-forward pass of information through the visual system. A second issue involves the categorization of stimuli that do not reach visual awareness. There is disagreement over the degree to which these stimuli activate the same early mechanisms as stimuli that are consciously perceived. We employed continuous flash suppression (CFS), EEG recordings, and machine learning techniques to study visual categorization of seen and unseen stimuli. Our classifiers were able to predict from the EEG recordings the category of stimuli on seen trials but not on unseen trials. Rapid categorization of conscious images could be detected around 100?ms on the occipital electrodes, consistent with a fast, feed-forward mechanism of target detection. For the invisible stimuli, however, CFS eliminated all traces of early processing. Our results support the idea of a fast mechanism of categorization and suggest that this early categorization process plays an important role in later, more subtle categorizations, and perceptual processes.

Linear Optics Simulation of Quantum Non-Markovian Dynamics

The simulation of open quantum dynamics has recently allowed the direct investigation of the features of system-environment interaction and of their consequences on the evolution of a quantum system. Such interaction threatens the quantum properties of the system, spoiling them and causing the phenomenon of decoherence. Sometimes however a coherent exchange of information takes place between system and environment, memory effects arise and the dynamics of the system becomes non-Markovian. Here we report the experimental realisation of a non-Markovian process where system and environment are coupled through a simulated transverse Ising model. By engineering the evolution in a photonic quantum simulator, we demonstrate the role played by system-environment correlations in the emergence of memory effects.

The Type IIb Supernova 2011dh from a Supergiant Progenitor

A set of hydrodynamical models based on stellar evolutionary progenitors is used to study the nature of SN 2011dh. Our modeling suggests that a large progenitor star ---with R ~200 Rsun---, is needed to reproduce the early light curve of SN 2011dh. This is consistent with the suggestion that the yellow super-giant star detected at the location of the SN in deep pre-explosion images is the progenitor star. From the main peak of the bolometric light curve and expansion velocities we constrain the mass of the ejecta to be ~2 Msun, the explosion energy to be E= 6-10 x 10^50 erg, and the 56Ni mass to be approximately 0.06 Msun. The progenitor star was composed of a helium core of 3 to 4 Msun and a thin hydrogen-rich envelope of ~0.1 M_sun with a main sequence mass estimated to be in the range of 12--15 Msun. Our models rule out progenitors with helium-core masses larger than 8 Msun, which correspond to M_ZAMS > 25 Msun. This suggests that a single star evolutionary scenario for SN 2011dh is unlikely.

SN 2009ip á la PESSTO:No evidence for core-collapse yet

We present observations of the interacting transient SN 2009ip, from the start of the outburst in October 2012 until the end of the 2012 observing season. The transient reached a peak of $M_V$=-17.7 mag before fading rapidly, with a total integrated luminosity of 1.9$\times10^{49}$ erg over the period of August-December 2012. The optical and near infrared spectra are dominated by narrow emission lines, signaling a dense circumstellar environment, together with multiple components of broad emission and absorption in H and He at velocities between 0.5-1.2$\times10^4$ km s$^{-1}$\. We see no evidence for nucleosynthesized material in SN 2009ip, even in late-time pseudo-nebular spectra. We set a limit of $