A new statistical framework for the quantification of covariate associations with species distributions

Identifying processes that shape species geographical ranges is a prerequisite for understanding environmental change. Currently, species distribution modelling methods do not offer credible statistical tests of the relative influence of climate factors and typically ignore other processes (e.g. biotic interactions and dispersal limitation). We use a hierarchical model fitted with Markov Chain Monte Carlo to combine ecologically plausible niche structures using regression splines to describe unimodal but potentially skewed response terms. We apply spatially explicit error terms that account for (and may help identify) missing variables. Using three example distributions of European bird species, we map model results to show sensitivity to change in each covariate. We show that the overall strength of climatic association differs between species and that each species has considerable spatial variation in both the strength of the climatic association and the sensitivity to climate change. Our methods are widely applicable to many species distribution modelling problems and enable accurate assessment of the statistical importance of biotic and abiotic influences on distributions.

The influence of comorbidity on the risk of access-related bacteremia in chronic hemodialysis patients.

Access-related bacteremia is an important cause of morbidity in chronic hemodialysis patients. The incidence of bacteremia is higher in patients dialyzing through a tunneled central venous catheter (TCVC) compared with an arteriovenous fistula (AVF). Our aim was to explore if this is explained by patient comorbidity. Two groups of chronic hemodialysis outpatients were compared: all patients who dialyzed through a TCVC at any time during 2003 and were fit enough to subsequently have a functioning AVF or renal transplant even if it was after 2003 (Group 1; n=93); and all patients who dialyzed through a TCVC in 2003 and were not fit enough to have a functioning AVF or renal transplant (Group 2; n=119). Episodes of bacteremia (n=71) were identified and those not related to access were excluded. Patients in Group 1 were younger than Group 2 (57.5 years vs. 64.8 years; P=0.001). The incidences of bacteremia in Groups 1 and 2 were, respectively, 0.31 and 0.44 episodes per 1000 patient days while dialyzing through an AVF (P=0.77), and 2.21 and 2.27 per 1000 days while dialyzing through a TCVC (P=0.91). The 3-year actual survival from January 1, 2003 to January 1, 2006 was significantly higher in Group 1 than in Group 2 (80.6% vs. 26.1%; P<0.0001) confirming the higher comorbidity of the patients in Group 2. Patients dialyzing through a TCVC (compared with an AVF) have a significantly higher risk of access-related bacteremia, irrespective of comorbidity.

The health profile of football/soccer players in Northern Ireland - a review of the uefa pre-participation medical screening procedure.

BACKGROUND:
It is compulsory that domestic football/soccer teams in UEFA competitions organise players' pre-participation medicals. Although screening guidelines have been established, these remain controversial. The findings of medical examinations can have lasting consequences for athletes and doctors. No previous studies have reported UEFA pre-participation screening results in semi-professional footballers. This study aims to further knowledge regarding 'normal' data in this population.

METHOD:
Retrospective audit and analysis of records of pre-season medicals for all male first-team players at one semi-professional Northern Ireland Premiership team between 2009-2012. Medicals were conducted by the club doctor following the UEFA proforma. Height, weight, blood pressure (BP), full blood count (FBC), dipstick urinalysis and resting electrocardiogram (ECG) were conducted by an independent nurse. Only one ECG must be documented during a player's career; other tests are repeated yearly.

RESULTS:
89 medicals from 47 players (6 goalkeepers, 11 defenders, 22 midfielders and 8 attackers; mean age 25.0 years (SD 4.86)) were reviewed. Mean height of the players was 179.3 cm (SD 5.90) with a mean weight of 77.6 kg (SD 10.5). Of 89 urine dipsticks, 7 were positive for protein; all 7 were normal on repeat testing following 48 hours of rest. Of 40 ECGs (mean ventricular rate 61.2 bpm (SD 11.6)), one was referred to cardiology (right bundle branch block; prolonged Q-T interval). No players were excluded from participation.

CONCLUSIONS:
This study provides important information about 'normal' values in a population of semi-professional footballers. Urinalysis showing protein is not uncommon but is likely to be normal on repeat testing.

Correlates of sport participation in adults with long-standing illness or disability.

Background: Little is known about why people with a long-standing illness/disability are less likely to participate in sport than others. This study aimed to identify for the first time sport participation levels and their correlates among Northern Ireland (NI) adults who report a long-standing illness/disability. Method Using data collected in the Continuous Household Survey, an annual survey of a random sample of the NI population, during 2007–2011, we examined responses for the total sample, those with a long-term illness/disability and those with no long-term health issues. We conducted univariate binary regression analysis for the whole sample and for those with a long-standing illness or disability, using sport participation as the dependent variable, and then carried significant variables into a multivariate analysis. Results: The sample included 13 683 adults; 3550 (26%) reported a long-term illness or disability. Multivariate analysis showed that, for the total sample and for those with a long-standing illness or disability, sport participation correlated positively with being male, aged <56 years, having a household car/van, health being ‘fairly good’/‘good’ in the previous year, doing work and living in an urban location. Also, for those with a long-standing illness or disability, being single and less socioeconomically deprived correlated positively with sport participation. Conclusions: The findings suggest that more focused efforts may promote sport participation for people with a long-standing illness or disability who are female, older, not working, living rurally, married/cohabiting, socioeconomically deprived and report having had poor health in the past year. Our findings should inform public health policy and help in developing initiatives to support sport participation and reduce health inequalities.

Testing the channel-based model of duration perception

The channel-based model of duration perception postulates the existence of neural mechanisms that respond selectively to a narrow range of stimulus durations centred on their preferred duration (Heron et al Proceedings of the Royal Society B 279 690–698). In principle the channel-based model could
explain recent reports of adaptation-induced, visual duration compression effects (Johnston et al Current Biology 16 472–479; Curran and Benton Cognition 122 252–257); from this perspective duration compression is a consequence of the adapting stimuli being presented for a longer duration than the test stimuli. In the current experiment observers adapted to a sequence of moving random dot patterns at the same retinal position, each 340ms in duration and separated by a variable (500–1000ms) interval. Following adaptation observers judged the duration of a 600ms test stimulus at the same location. The test stimulus moved in the same, or opposite, direction as the adaptor. Contrary to the channel-based
model’s prediction, test stimulus duration appeared compressed, rather than expanded, when it moved in the same direction as the adaptor. That test stimulus duration was not distorted when moving in the opposite direction further suggests that visual timing mechanisms are influenced by additional neural processing associated with the stimulus being timed.

Systematic review of the use of behaviour change techniques (BCTs) in home-based cardiac rehabilitation programmes for patients with cardiovascular disease-protocol

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), including myocardial infarction, heart failure, peripheral arterial disease and strokes, are highly prevalent conditions and are associated with high morbidity and mortality. Cardiac rehabilitation (CR) is an effective form of secondary prevention for CVD but there is a lack of information regarding which specific behaviour change techniques (BCTs) are included in programmes that are associated with improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. This systematic review will describe the BCTs which are utilised within home-based CR programmes that are effective at reducing a spectrum of CVD risk factors.

METHODS/DESIGN: The review will be reported in line with the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidance. Randomised and quasi-randomised controlled trials of home-based CR initiated following a vascular event (myocardial infarction, heart failure, peripheral arterial disease and stroke patients) will be included. Articles will be identified through a comprehensive search of MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, Web of Science and Cochrane Database guided by a medical librarian. Two review authors will independently screen articles retrieved from the search for eligibility and extract relevant data, identifying which specific BCTs are included in programmes that are associated with improvements in particular modifiable vascular risk factors.

DISCUSSION: This review will be of value to clinicians and healthcare professionals working with cardiovascular patients by identifying specific BCTs which are used within effective home-based CR. It will also inform the future design and evaluation of complex health service interventions aimed at secondary prevention in CVD.

Sources of patient knowledge and financing of cataract surgery in rural China: the Sanrao Study of Cataract Outcomes and Up-Take of Services (SCOUTS), report 6.

AIM: To study patient sources of knowledge about cataract surgical services, and strategies for financing surgery in rural China. DESIGN: Cross-sectional case series. METHODS: Patients undergoing cataract surgery by local surgeons in a government, village-level facility in Sanrao, Guangdong between 8 August and 31 December 2005 were examined and had standardised interviews an average of 12 months after surgery. RESULTS: Of 313 eligible patients, 239 (76%) completed the questionnaire. Subjects had a mean (SD) age of 69.9 (10.2) years, 36.4% (87/239) were male, and 87.0% (208/239) had been blind (presenting visual acuity < or = 6/60) before surgery. Word-of-mouth advertising was particularly important: 198 (85.0%) of the subjects knew a person who had undergone cataract surgery, of whom 191 (96.5%) had had cataract surgery at Sanrao itself. Over 70% of subjects (166/239) watched TV daily, whereas 80.0% (188/239) "never" read the newspaper. Nearly two-thirds of suggestions from participants (n = 211, 59.6%) favoured either TV advertisements or word-of-mouth to publicise the programme. While the son or daughter had paid for surgery in over 70% of cases (164/233), the patient's having paid without help was the sole predictor of undergoing second-eye surgery (OR 2.27 (95% CI 1.01 to 5.0, p = 0.04)). DISCUSSION: Strategies to increase uptake of cataract surgery in rural China may benefit from enhancing word-of-mouth advertising (such as with pseudophakic motivators), using television advertising where affordable, and micro-credit or other programmes to enable patients to pay their own fees, thus increasing uptake of second-eye surgery.