Predicting community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity

How best to predict the effects of perturbations to ecological communities has been a long-standing goal for both applied and basic ecology. This quest has recently been revived by new empirical data, new analysis methods, and increased computing speed, with the promise that ecologically important insights may be obtainable from a limited knowledge of community interactions. We use empirically based and simulated networks of varying size and connectance to assess two limitations to predicting perturbation responses in multispecies communities: (1) the inaccuracy by which species interaction strengths are empirically quantified and (2) the indeterminacy of species responses due to indirect effects associated with network size and structure. We find that even modest levels of species richness and connectance (similar to 25 pairwise interactions) impose high requirements for interaction strength estimates because system indeterminacy rapidly overwhelms predictive insights. Nevertheless, even poorly estimated interaction strengths provide greater average predictive certainty than an approach that uses only the sign of each interaction. Our simulations provide guidance in dealing with the trade-offs involved in maximizing the utility of network approaches for predicting dynamics in multispecies communities.

Perturbations to trophic interactions and the stability of complex food webs

The pattern of predator-prey interactions is thought to be a key determinant of ecosystem processes and stability. Complex ecological networks are characterized by distributions of interaction strengths that are highly skewed, with many weak and few strong interactors present. Theory suggests that this pattern promotes stability as weak interactors dampen the destabilizing potential of strong interactors. Here, we present an experimental test of this hypothesis and provide empirical evidence that the loss of weak interactors can destabilize communities in nature. We ranked 10 marine consumer species by the strength of their trophic interactions. We removed the strongest and weakest of these interactors from experimental food webs containing >100 species. Extinction of strong interactors produced a dramatic trophic cascade and reduced the temporal stability of key ecosystem process rates, community diversity and resistance to changes in community composition. Loss of weak interactors also proved damaging for our experimental ecosystems, leading to reductions in the temporal and spatial stability of ecosystem process rates, community diversity, and resistance. These results highlight the importance of conserving species to maintain the stabilizing pattern of trophic interactions in nature, even if they are perceived to have weak effects in the system.

Press perturbations and indirect effects in real food webs

The prediction of the effects of disturbances in natural systems is limited by the general lack of knowledge on the strength of species interactions, i.e., the effect of one species on the population growth rate of another, and by the uncertainty of the effects that may be manifested via indirect pathways within the food web. Here we explored the consequences of changes in species populations for the remaining species within nine exceptionally well-characterized empirical food webs, for which, unlike the vast majority of other published webs, feeding links have been fully quantied. Using the inverse of the Jacobian matrix, we found that perturbations to species with few connections have larger net effects (considering both direct and indirect pathways between two species) on the rest of the food web than do disturbances to species that are highly connected. For 40% of predator-prey links, predators had positive net effects on prey populations, due to the predominance of indirect interactions. Our results highlight the fundamental, but often counterintuitive, role of indirect effects for the maintenance of food web complexity and biodiversity.

Rethinking the Sacred and Secular Divide. Accounting and Accountability Practices in the Diocese of Ferrara (1431-1457)

Purpose – Informed by the work of Laughlin and Booth, the paper analyses the role of accounting and accountability practices within the 15th century Roman Catholic Church, more specifically within the Diocese of Ferrara (northern Italy), in order to determine the presence of a sacred-secular dichotomy. Pope Eugenius IV had embarked upon a comprehensive reform of the Church to counter the spreading moral corruption within the clergy and the subsequent disaffection with the Church by many believers. The reforms were notable not only for the Pope’s determination to restore the moral authority and power of the Church but for the essential contributions of ‘profane’ financial and accounting practices to the success of the reforms.
Design/methodology/approach – Original 15th century Latin documents and account books of the Diocese of Ferrara are used to highlight the link between the new sacred values imposed by Pope Eugenius IV’s reforms and accounting and accountability practices.
Findings – The documents reveal that secular accounting and accountability practices were not regarded as necessarily antithetical to religious values, as would be expected by Laughlin and Booth. Instead, they were seen to assume a role which was complementary to the Church’s religious mission. Indeed, they were essential to its sacred mission during a period in which the Pope sought to arrest the moral decay of the clergy and reinstate the Church’s authority. Research implications/limitations – The paper shows that the sacred-secular dichotomy cannot be considered as a priori valid in space and time. There is also scope for examining other Italian dioceses where there was little evidence of Pope Eugenius’ reforms.
Originality/value – The paper presents a critique of the sacred-secular divide paradigm by considering an under-researched period and a non Anglo-Saxon context.

Parties, cleavages, and issue evolution: The case of the religious-secular cleavage in Chile

Several recent articles have reached different conclusions regarding the impact of the religious–secular cleavage in Chile. The resolution of this debate has important consequences for the understanding of cleavages. Studies subscribing to the view that parties have considerable agency in the maintenance of cleavages have found that religiosity no longer affects vote choice, while studies rooted in a sociological perspective argue that religiosity still matters. We show that the reason for the discrepant results is because a partisan realignment is underway, whereby religious voters are gradually shifting their loyalties from the parties of the left to the parties of the right, matching a division that has taken place at the elite level. These results are consistent with an issue evolution perspective, which provides a clearer articulation of how cleavages form than either the agency or the sociological approaches.

Party agency and the religious-secular cleavage in post-Communist countries: The case of Romania

Research focusing on several post-communist countries has found evidence of social cleavage effects on political behaviour similar to those found in Western Europe. In some post-communist countries, however, social cleavage effects appear far weaker (if at all). To understand why this is the case, I perform a case study of Romania, focusing on the religious–secular cleavage. Drawing upon research that emphasises the role of parties in forming cleavages, I argue that the reason for the absence of social cleavage effects is due to party competition for the same group of voters by parties from opposing ends of the ideological spectrum. By shifting their positions, some parties have prevented the appearance of cleavages by shaping individuals' perceptions of the parties and, in doing so, have even altered individuals' own left–right self-placements.

Secular trends in reported portion size of food and beverages consumed by Irish adults

The present analysis aimed to investigate the changes in the reported portion sizes (PS) of foods and beverages commonly consumed by Irish adults (18-64 years) from the North South Ireland Food Consumption Survey (NSIFCS) (1997-2001) and the National Adult Nutrition Survey (NANS) (2008-10). Food PS, which are defined as the weight of food (g) consumed per eating occasion, were calculated for comparable foods and beverages in two nationally representative cross-sectional Irish food consumption surveys and were published in NSIFCS and NANS. Repeated measure mixed model analysis compared reported food PS at the total population level as well as subdivided by sex, age, BMI and social class. A total of thirteen commonly consumed foods were examined. The analysis demonstrated that PS significantly increased for five foods ('white sliced bread', 'brown/wholemeal breads', 'all meat, cooked', 'poultry, roasted' and 'milk'), significantly decreased for three ('potatoes', 'chips/wedges' and 'ham, sliced') and did not significantly change for five foods ('processed potato products', 'bacon/ham', 'cheese', 'yogurt' and 'butter/spreads') between the NSIFCS and the NANS. The present study demonstrates that there was considerable variation in the trends in reported food PS over this period.

The role of the cerebral cortex in postural responses to externally induced perturbations

The ease with which we avoid falling down belies a highly sophisticated and distributed neural network for controlling reactions to maintain upright balance. Although historically these reactions were considered within the sub cortical domain, mounting evidence reveals a distributed network for postural control including a potentially important role for the cerebral cortex. Support for this cortical role comes from direct measurement associated with moments of induced instability as well as indirect links between cognitive task performance and balance recovery. The cerebral cortex appears to be directly involved in the control of rapid balance reactions but also setting the central nervous system in advance to optimize balance recovery reactions even when a future threat to stability is unexpected. In this review the growing body of evidence that now firmly supports a cortical role in the postural responses to externally induced perturbations is presented. Moreover, an updated framework is advanced to help understand how cortical contributions may influence our resistance to falls and on what timescale. The implications for future studies into the neural control of balance are discussed.