Combining global climate and regional landscape models to improve prediction of invasion risk

Aim
It is widely acknowledged that species distributions result from a variety of biotic and abiotic factors operating at different spatial scales. Here, we aimed to (1) determine the extent to which global climate niche models (CNMs) can be improved by the addition of fine-scale regional data; (2) examine climatic and environmental factors influencing the range of 15 invasive aquatic plant species; and (3) provide a case study for the use of such models in invasion management on an island.

Location
Global, with a case study of species invasions in Ireland.

Methods
Climate niche models of global extent (including climate only) and regional environmental niche models (with additional factors such as human influence, land use and soil characteristics) were generated using maxent for 15 invasive aquatic plants. The performance of these models within the invaded range of the study species in Ireland was assessed, and potential hotspots of invasion suitability were determined. Models were projected forward up to 2080 based on two climate scenarios.

Results
While climate variables are important in defining the global range of species, factors related to land use and nutrient level were of greater importance in regional projections. Global climatic models were significantly improved at the island scale by the addition of fine-scale environmental variables (area under the curve values increased by 0.18 and true skill statistic values by 0.36), and projected ranges decreased from an average of 86% to 36% of the island.

Main conclusions
Refining CNMs with regional data on land use, human influence and landscape may have a substantial impact on predictive capacity, providing greater value for prioritization of conservation management at subregional or local scales.

A Comparison of Support Needs Between Rural and Urban Family Caregivers Providing Palliative Care

The present study examined the support needs for urban and rural family caregivers of a palliative family member using a cross-sectional telephone survey in northeastern Ontario, Canada (n = 140; 70 urban, 70 rural). Support needs identified as most important by both the groups were informational. Rural caregivers reported greater unmet needs in tangible support (P =.01). No differences were observed between the groups for emotional or informational support needs (P =.25 and P =.35, respectively). Rural and urban caregivers perceived care for care recipients as accessible (mean accessibility score 1.9, standard deviation [SD] = 0.09 and 1.7, SD = 0.7, respectively, P =.20); the majority indicated that when needed, services were easily and quickly obtained. Although there are similarities in the formal care experiences, rural caregivers experience greater unmet needs in receiving support for instrumental activities. © The Author(s) 2013.

Comparing the experiences of rural and urban family caregivers of the terminally ill

Introduction: There are many challenges in delivering rural health services; this is particularly true for the delivery of palliative care. Previous work has identified consistent themes around end-of-life care, including caregiver burden in providing care, the importance of informal care networks and barriers imposed by geography. Despite these well-known barriers, few studies have explored the experience of palliative care in rural settings. The purpose of the present study was to compare the experiences of rural family caregivers actively providing end-of-life care to the experiences of their urban counterparts. Methods: Caregivers' perceived health status, the experience of burden in caregiving, assessment of social supports and the pattern of formal care used by the terminally ill were explored using a consistent and standardized measurement approach. A cross-sectional survey study was conducted with 100 informal caregivers (44 rural, 56 urban) actively providing care to a terminally ill patient recruited from a publicly funded community agency located in northeastern Ontario, Canada. The telephone-based survey included questions assessing: (i) caregiver perceived burden (14-item instrument based on the Caregiver's Burden Scale in End-of-Life Care [CBS-EOLC]); (ii) perceived social support (modified version of the Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support [MSPSS] consisting of 12 items); and (iii) functional status of the care recipient (assessed using the Eastern Collaborative Oncology Group performance scale). Results: Rural and urban caregivers were providing care to recipients with similar functional status; the majority of care recipients were either capable of all self-care or experiencing some limitation in self-care. No group differences were observed for caregiver perceived burden: both rural and urban caregivers reported low levels of burden (CBS-EOLC score of 26.5 [SD=8.1] and 25.0 [SD=9.2], respectively; p=0.41). Urban and rural caregivers also reported similarly high levels of social support (mean MSPSS total score of 4.3 [SD=0.7] and 4.1 [SD=0.8], respectively; p=0.40). Although caregivers across both settings reported using a comparable number of services (rural 4.8 [SD=1.9] vs urban 4.5 [SD=1.8]; p=0.39), the types of services used differed. Rural caregivers reported greater use of family physicians (65.1% vs 40.7%; p=0.02), emergency room visits (31.8% vs 13.0%; p=0.02) and pharmacy services (95.3% vs 70.4%; p=0.002), while urban caregivers reported greater use of caregiver respite services (29.6% vs 11.6%; p=0.03). Conclusion: Through the use of standardized tools, this study explored the experiences of rural informal family caregivers providing palliative care in contrast to the experiences of their urban counterparts. The results of the present study suggest that while there are commonalities to the caregiving experience regardless of setting, key differences also exist. Thus, location is a factor to be considered when implementing palliative care programs and services. © K Brazil, S Kaasalainen, A Williams, C Rodriguez, 2013.

Retinopathy in type 1 diabetes mellitus: Major differences between rural and urban dwellers in northwest Ethiopia

Aim: To audit levels of diabetes-related eye disease in Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients in northwest Ethiopia. In particular to establish whether, despite identical clinical goals, major differences between the physically demanding life-style of rural subsistence farmers and the sedentary life-style of urban dwellers would influence the prevalence of diabetes-related eye complications. 

Methods: A robust infrastructure for chronic disease management that comprehensively includes all rural dwellers was a pre-requisite for the investigation. A total of 544 T1DM were examined, representing 80% of all T1DM patients under regular review at both the urban and rural clinics and representative of patient age and gender (62.1% male, 37.9% female) of T1DM patients from this region; all were supervised by the same clinical team. Eye examinations were performed for visual acuity, cataract and retinal changes (retinal photography). HbA1c levels and the presence or absence of hypertension were recorded. 

Results/conclusions: Urban and rural groups had similar prevalences of severe visual impairment/blindness (7.0% urban, 5.2% rural) and cataract (7.3% urban, 7.1% rural). By contrast, urban dwellers had a significantly higher prevalence of retinopathy compared to rural patients, 16.1% and 5.0%, respectively (OR 2.9, p <. 0.02, after adjustment for duration, age, gender and hypertension). There was a 3-fold greater prevalence of hypertension in urban patients, whereas HbA1c levels were similar in the two groups. Since diabetic retinopathy is closely associated with microvascular disease and endothelial dysfunction, the possible influences of hypertension to increase and of sustained physical activity to reduce endothelial dysfunction are discussed.

Soft Budget Constraints and Regional Industrial Policy: Reinterpreting the Rise and fall of De Lorean

The rise and fall of De Lorean Motor Cars Limited (DMCL) has been traditionally interpreted as either the result either of John De Lorean’s psychological flaws or as confirming the supposed limitations of activist industrial policy. However, when the episode is examined in greater historical detail, neither of these interpretations are compelling. The reinterpretation outlined here draws on institutional analysis as well as a range of archival sources, much of it previously unreleased. The inefficiencies within the original contractual agreement are highlighted. The lack of credibility associated with this agreement was in turn traceable to the institutional environment (with its associated risk-reward implications) under which industrial policy operated. This environment had a political element - it had been distorted by the Troubles and the resulting fears policymakers had of a cumulative causation relationship between violence and unemployment. Officials in Belfast, against Treasury opposition, advocated state-led entrepreneurship as a policy response.

Chinese export competition, declining exports and adjustments at the industry and regional level in Europe

We analyze how a set of 22 European countries was affected by increased Chinese export competition between 1995 and 2008. Employing product-group level data, we observe a reduction in the export volumes of European countries due to increased Chinese export competition. This deceleration in the export sector induces changes within the manufacturing industries, especially a decline in employment. When using more aggregated, regional-level data, our analysis shows that the industry sector as a whole declines, resulting in an increased unemployment rate. The importance of Chinese export competition for Europe is attributable to its high export intensity.

Stable oxygen isotopes in irish oaks: potential for reconstructing local and regional climate

The long Irish oak tree-ring chronology, developed for archaeological dating and radiocarbon calibration, is the longest of any in northwest maritime Europe, spanning most of the Holocene (7,272 years). Unfortunately, the rings widths do not carry a strong climate signal and the record hasnever been satisfactorily applied for dendroclimatic reconstruction. This pilot study explores the potential for extracting a climate signal from Irish oaks by comparing the stable oxygen isotopes ratios from 10 oak tree cores (Quercus robur and Quercus petraea L.) collected across the Armagh region of NE Ireland with local and regional climatic and stable isotopic data. Statistically significant correlations between isotope ratios and the amount of summer precipitation (r = -0.44) point to the isotopic composition of summer rainfall as the dominant signal. Including the Armagh data into an extended regional oxygen isotope series did not reduce the correlation coefficient with regional precipitation (r = -0.68, p < 0.01). Correlations of this magnitude in dendro-hydroclimatology are typically restricted to trees growing at their ecological limits. This research suggests that there is considerable potential for including living trees and ancient timbers from Ireland into a regional composite to reconstruct the summer hydroclimate of Britain and Ireland.

Using choice experiments to explore the spatial distribution of willingness to pay for rural landscape improvements

We report findings from a choice experiment survey designed to estimate the economic benefits of policy measures to improve the rural landscape in the Republic of Ireland. Using a panel mixed logit specification to account for unobserved taste heterogeneity we derived individual-specific willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates for each respondent in the sample. We subsequently investigated the spatial dependence of these estimates. Results suggest the existence of positive spatial autocorrelation for all rural landscape attributes. As a means of benefit transfer, kriging methods were employed to interpolate WTP estimates across the whole of the Republic of Ireland. The kriged WTP surfaces confirm the existence of spatial dependence and illustrate the implied spatial variation and regional disparities in WTP for all the rural landscape improvements investigated.

Growth Coalitions and Rural Development Police in the EU and the US

A recent issue of EuroChoices (7:1) was devoted to a discussion of comparative US-EU rural development policies. This article discusses the concept of growth coalitions, well developed in urban literature but less so in rural literature. Some light is shed on the different positions of rural and environmental issues in EU and US policies. The agricultural lobby is the dominant actor in agricultural growth coalitions because it perceives land in terms of its exchange value. Environmental and rural development actors perceive land in terms of its use value and its contributions to quality of life: they form a rural development coalition, seeing the need to balance growth with quality of life, but they have less political power than the agricultural growth coalition. In the European context, rural and environmental agendas are linked to a multi-functional agricultural agenda allowing common ground between these two coalitions and greater visibility in the policy arena. In the US, rural interests and environmental groups are more often in opposition to agriculture. This reduces their political visibility and clout. The challenge is how to link the power of the agricultural growth coalitions with rural development coalitions to achieve a broader balance of concerns and a more effective rural development policy.

Segregation Preferences of Urban and Rural 16-year-olds in Northern Ireland

Sectarian violence in the Northern Ireland is often perceived to be mostly confined to cities. The aim of this paper is to explore statistically what factors contribute to segregation preferences among young people living in rural and urban areas, using the 2005–2009 Young Life and Times (YLT) survey – an annual attitudes survey of 16-year-olds. The findings show that religious and national identities are the strongest predictors of segregation preferences among 16-year-olds, regardless of where they live and what background they have. Those living in rural areas of Northern Ireland are more supportive of residential, workplace and educational segregation than those living in more urban areas. This research highlights the need for government policy to take rurality into account. Nevertheless, some variables significantly determine segregation preferences regardless of where respondents live, such as attendance of segregated schools, being female, or strength of national and religious identity. Consequently, policy initiatives should continue to address the effect of segregation, especially in relation to education, and future research exploring social class and gender is recommended. In conclusion, the perception of the violent ‘urban spaces’ and the ‘peaceful countryside’ has to be challenged.

Issue salience in regional and national party manifestoes in the UK

The study reveals the salience of particular issues in the manifestos of the main British parties for the 1997 and 2003 UK general elections, as well as the 2003 Scottish and Welsh elections, using the method introduced by the Comparative Manifesto Project (CMP) and a modified list of issue categories to reflect the division of government competences between the central and regional governments. Ideological and social base of a party, as well as the delimitation of government competences, are found to be important determinants of issue salience. A more consensual institutional design of the regional government in Scotland and Wales seems to have conditioned larger differences among the issue profiles of parties competing in regional elections, in comparison with general elections. With the institutionalisation of devolution, however, we observe an increase in the similarity of the issue profiles of the same parties in general and in Scottish and Welsh elections, as well as among different parties competing in the same regional elections. © 2005 Taylor & Francis.

Barriers and Facilitators to Providing Palliative Care in Rural Communities: A Nursing Perspective

Nursing plays a key role in the coordination and delivery of palliative care services in rural settings. The purpose of this study is to identify barriers and enablers to providing palliative care in rural communities from a nursing perspective. This study utilized a qualitative descriptive design. Findings highlighted that the remoteness, limited access to resources and professional practice barriers created challenges for nurses as they tried to provide quality palliative care to their clients. System-related barriers were identified and included: lack of services, funding issues, and poor continuity of care. Despite these barriers, nurses drew from supports to optimize palliative care such as using a team approach to care, centers, utilizing local case managers and informal community members, and using palliative care resources. These results may help inform policy decisions around the needs of nurses who practice in rural settings to provide quality care to individuals who are dying and their families.

Relationship between socioeconomic deprivation or urban/rural residence and visual acuity before cataract surgery in Northern Scotland

Purpose: To evaluate the influence of socioeconomic factors on visual acuity before cataract surgery. ?Methods: The medical case notes of 240 consecutive patients listed for cataract surgery from January 1, 2010, at Grampian University Hospital, Aberdeen, were reviewed retrospectively. Patients with ocular comorbidity were excluded. Demographics, postal codes, and visual acuity were recorded. Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation was used to determine the deprivation rank. Home location was classified as urban or rural. The effect of these parameters on preoperative visual acuity was investigated using chi-square tests or Fisher exact test as appropriate. ?Results: A total of 184 patients (mean 75 years) were included. A total of 127 (69%) patients had visual acuity of 6/12 or better. An association was found between affluence and preoperative visual acuity of 6/12 or better (?2trend = 4.97, p = 0.03), with a significant rising trend across quintile of deprivation. There was no evidence to suggest association between geographical region and preoperative visual acuity (p = 0.63). ?Conclusion: Affluence was associated with good visual acuity (6/12 or better) before cataract surgery. There was no difference in preoperative visual acuity between rural and urban populations.