44 resultados para Risk measures
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE:
To study associations between severity stages of early and late age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and genetic variations in age-related maculopathy susceptibility 2 (ARMS2) and complement factor H (CFH) and to investigate potential interactions between smoking and ARMS2.
DESIGN:
Population-based, cross-sectional European Eye Study in 7 countries in Europe.
PARTICIPANTS:
Four thousand seven hundred fifty participants, 65 years of age and older, recruited through random sampling.
METHODS:
Participants were classified on the basis of the more severely affected eye into 5 mutually exclusive AMD severity stages ranging from no AMD, 3 categories of early AMD, and late AMD. History of cigarette smoking was available and allowed classification into never, former, and current smokers, with the latter 2 groups combined into a single category of ever smokers for analysis. Genotyping was performed for single nucleotide polymorphisms rs10490924 and rs4146894 in ARMS2 and rs1061170 in CFH. Associations were analyzed by logistic regression.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:
Odds ratios (ORs) for stage of AMD associated with genetic variations in ARMS2 and CFH and interactions between ARMS2 and smoking status.
RESULTS:
Early AMD was present in 36.4% and late AMD was present in 3.3% of participants. Data on both genotype and AMD were available for 4276 people. The ORs for associations between AMD stage and ARMS2 increased monotonically with more severe stages of early AMD and were altered little by adjustment for potential confounders. Compared with persons with no AMD, carriers of the TT genotype for rs10490924 in ARMS2 had a 10-fold increase in risk of late AMD (P<3 × 10(-20)). The ORs for associations with CFH were similar for stage 3 early AMD and late AMD. Interactions between rs10490924 in ARMS2 and smoking status were significant in both unadjusted and adjusted models (P = 0.001). The highest risk was observed in those doubly homozygous for rs10490924 and rs1061170 in CFH (OR, 62.3; 95% confidence interval, 16-242), with P values for trend ranging from 0.03 (early AMD, stage 1) to 1 × 10(-26) (late AMD).
CONCLUSIONS:
A strong association was demonstrated between all stages of AMD and genetic variation in ARMS2, and a significant gene-environment interaction with cigarette smoking was confirmed.
Resumo:
Objective: To evaluate the impact of a provider initiated primary care outreach intervention compared with usual care among older adults at risk of functional decline. Design: Randomised controlled trial. Setting: Patients enrolled with 35 family physicians in five primary care networks in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. Participants Patients: were eligible if they were 75 years of age or older and were not receiving home care services. Of 3166 potentially eligible patients, 2662 (84%) completed the validated postal questionnaire used to determine risk of functional decline. Of 1724 patients who met the risk criteria, 769 (45%) agreed to participate and 719 were randomised. Intervention: The 12 month intervention, provided by experienced home care nurses in 2004-6, consisted of a comprehensive initial assessment using the resident assessment instrument for home care; collaborative care planning with patients, their families, and family physicians; health promotion; and referral to community health and social support services. Main outcome measures: Quality adjusted life years (QALYs), use and costs of health and social services, functional status, self rated health, and mortality. Results: The mean difference in QALYs between intervention and control patients during the study period was not statistically significant (0.017, 95% confidence interval -0.022 to 0.056; P=0.388). The mean difference in overall cost of prescription drugs and services between the intervention and control groups was not statistically significant, (-$C165 (£107; €118; $162), 95% confidence interval -$C16 545 to $C16 214; P=0.984). Changes over 12 months in functional status and self rated health were not significantly different between the intervention and control groups. Ten patients died in each group. Conclusions: The results of this study do not support adoption of this preventive primary care intervention for this target population of high risk older adults. Trial registration: Clinical trials NCT00134836.
Resumo:
Background Aflatoxins are fungal metabolites that frequently contaminate staple foods in much of sub-Saharan Africa, and are associated with increased risk of liver cancer and impaired growth in young children. We aimed to assess whether postharvest measures to restrict aflatoxin contamination of groundnut crops could reduce exposure in west African villages.
Methods We undertook an intervention study at subsistence farms in the lower Kindia region of Guinea. Farms from 20 villages were included, ten of which implemented a package of postharvest measures to restrict aflatoxin contamination of the groundnut crop; ten controls followed usual postharvest practices. We measured the concentrations of blood aflatoxin-albumin adducts from 600 people immediately after harvest and at 3 months and 5 months postharvest to monitor the effectiveness of the intervention.
Findings In control villages mean aflatoxin-albumin concentration increased postharvest (from 5.5 pg/mg [95% CI 4.7-6.1] immediately after harvest to 18.7 pg/mg [17.0-20.6] 5 months later). By contrast, mean aflatoxin-albumin concentration in intervention villages after 5 months of groundnut storage was much the same as that immediately postharvest (7.2 pg/mg [6.2-8.4] vs 8.0 pg/mg [7.0-9.2]). At 5 months, mean adduct concentration in intervention villages was less than 50% of that in control villages (8.0 pg/mg [7.2-9.2] vs 18.7 pg/mg [17.0-20.6], p<0.0001). About a third of the number of people had non-detectable aflatoxin-albumin concentrations at harvest. At 5 months, five (2%) people in the control villages had non-detectable adduct concentrations compared with 47 (20%) of those in the intervention group (p<0.0001). Mean concentrations of aflatoxin B1 in groundnuts in household stores in intervention and control villages were consistent with measurements of aflatoxin-albumin adducts.
Interpretation Use of low-technology approaches at the subsistence-farm level in sub-Saharan Africa could substantially reduce the disease burden caused by aflatoxin exposure.
Resumo:
Predictive validity of the Stanford-Binet Intelligence Scale Fourth Edition (S-B IV) from age 3 years to ages 4-5 years was evaluated with biologically "at risk" children without major sensory or motor impairments (n = 236). Using the standard scoring, children with full scale IQ <or = 84 on the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence at age 4-5 years were poorly identified (sensitivity 54%) from the composite S-B IV score at age 3. However, sensitivity improved greatly to 78% by including as a predictor the number of subtests the child was actually able to perform at age 3 years. Measures from the Home Screening Questionnaire and ratings of mother-child interaction further improved sensitivity to 83%. The standard method for calculating the composite score on the S-B IV excludes subtests with a raw score of 0, which overestimates cognitive functioning in young biologically high risk children. Accuracy of early identification was improved significantly by considering the number of subtests the child did not perform at age 3 years.
Resumo:
Objective: Establish maternal preferences for a third-trimester ultrasound scan in a healthy, low-risk pregnant population.
Design: Cross-sectional study incorporating a discrete choice experiment.
Setting: A large, urban maternity hospital in Northern Ireland.
Participants: One hundred and forty-six women in their second trimester of pregnancy.
Methods: A discrete choice experiment was designed to elicit preferences for four attributes of a third-trimester ultrasound scan: health-care professional conducting the scan, detection rate for abnormal foetal growth, provision of non-medical information, cost. Additional data collected included age, marital status, socio-economic status, obstetric history, pregnancy-specific stress levels, perceived health and whether pregnancy was planned. Analysis was undertaken using a mixed logit model with interaction effects.
Main outcome measures: Women's preferences for, and trade-offs between, the attributes of a hypothetical scan and indirect willingness-to-pay estimates.
Results: Women had significant positive preference for higher rate of detection, lower cost and provision of non-medical information, with no significant value placed on scan operator. Interaction effects revealed subgroups that valued the scan most: women experiencing their first pregnancy, women reporting higher levels of stress, an adverse obstetric history and older women.
Conclusions: Women were able to trade on aspects of care and place relative importance on clinical, non-clinical outcomes and processes of service delivery, thus highlighting the potential of using health utilities in the development of services from a clinical, economic and social perspective. Specifically, maternal preferences exhibited provide valuable information for designing a randomized trial of effectiveness and insight for clinical and policy decision makers to inform woman-centred care.
Resumo:
PURPOSE: To describe fundus autofluorescence (AF) patterns and their change over time in patients with age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and high risk of visual loss participating in the drusen laser study (DLS). DESIGN: Randomized clinical trial. METHODS: The study population consisted of 29 patients (35 eyes) participating in the DLS, which is a prospective, randomized, controlled clinical trial of prophylactic laser therapy in patients with AMD and high risk of neovascular complications. The intervention consisted of 16 eyes having prophylactic laser and 19 receiving no treatment. The main outcome measures were changes in the distribution of drusen and AF. Patients were reviewed for a median follow-up or 24 months (range 12-36 months). RESULTS: At baseline, four patterns of fundus AF were recognized: focal increased AF (n = 18), reticular AF (n = 3), combined focal and reticular AF (n = 2), and homogeneous AF (n = 12). At last follow-up, fundus AF remained unchanged in 15 untreated (78%) and in seven treated (43%) eyes. In only one untreated eye, focal areas of increased AF returned to background levels and were no longer detectable at last follow-up, compared with six treated eyes. This difference was statistically significant (P = .03). Only large foveal soft drusen (drusenoid pigment epithelium detachments) consistently corresponded with focal changes in AF, whereas no obvious correspondence was found between small soft drusen located elsewhere and changes in AF. CONCLUSION: The lack of obvious correspondence between the distribution of drusen and of AF found in this study appears to indicate that drusen and AF represent independent measures of aging in the posterior pole. © 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Context: Family carers of palliative care patients report high levels of psychological distress throughout the caregiving phase and during bereavement. Palliative care providers are required to provide psychosocial support to family carers; however, determining which carers are more likely to develop prolonged grief (PG) is currently unclear.
Objectives: To ascertain whether family carers reporting high levels of PG symptoms and those who develop PG disorder (PGD) by six and 13 months postdeath can be predicted from predeath information.
Methods: A longitudinal study of 301 carers of patients receiving palliative care was conducted across three palliative care services. Data were collected on entry to palliative care (T1) on a variety of sociodemographic variables, carer-related factors, and psychological distress measures. The measures of psychological distress were then readministered at six (T2; n = 167) and 13 months postdeath (T3; n = 143).
Results: The PG symptoms at T1 were a strong predictor of both PG symptoms and PGD at T2 and T3. Greater bereavement dependency, a spousal relationship to the patient, greater impact of caring on schedule, poor family functioning, and low levels of optimism also were risk factors for PG symptoms.
Conclusion: Screening family carers on entry to palliative care seems to be the most effective way of identifying who has a higher risk of developing PG. We recommend screening carers six months after the death of their relative to identify most carers with PG.
Resumo:
Aims
Our aim was to test the prediction and clinical applicability of high-sensitivity assayed troponin I for incident cardiovascular events in a general middle-aged European population.
Methods and results
High-sensitivity assayed troponin I was measured in the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (n = 15 340) with 2171 cardiovascular events (including acute coronary heart disease and probable ischaemic strokes), 714 coronary deaths (25% of all deaths), 1980 myocardial infarctions, and 797 strokes of all kinds during an average of 20 years follow-up. Detection rate above the limit of detection (LoD) was 74.8% in the overall population and 82.6% in men and 67.0% in women. Troponin I assayed by the high-sensitivity method was associated with future cardiovascular risk after full adjustment such as that individuals in the fourth category had 2.5 times the risk compared with those without detectable troponin I (P < 0.0001). These associations remained significant even for those individuals in whom levels of contemporary-sensitivity troponin I measures were not detectable. Addition of troponin I levels to clinical variables led to significant increases in risk prediction with significant improvement of the c-statistic (P < 0.0001) and net reclassification (P < 0.0001). A threshold of 4.7 pg/mL in women and 7.0 pg/mL in men is suggested to detect individuals at high risk for future cardiovascular events.
Conclusion
Troponin I, measured with a high-sensitivity assay, is an independent predictor of cardiovascular events and might support selection of at risk individuals.
Resumo:
Abstract Objective To determine if high umbilical artery Doppler (UAD) pulsatility index (PI) is associated with cardio-vascular (CV) risk-factors in children at age 12 years. Methods We studied 195 children at age 12 years who had had in-utero UAD studies performed at 28 weeks gestation. The children were grouped according to whether their umbilical Doppler PI was high (indicating poor feto-placental circulation) or normal. At age 12 years we assessed CV risk factors, including anthropometric measures, blood pressure, pulse wave velocity (a measure of arterial compliance), cardio-respiratory fitness and homocysteine and cholesterol serum levels. Results Compared with children with a normal UAD PI (N=88), the children (N=107) with high UAD PI had higher resting pulse rate (p=0.04), higher pulse wave velocity (p=0.046), higher serum homocysteine levels (p=0.032) and reduced arterial compliance (7.58 v 8.50 m/sec, p=0.029) using univariate analysis. These differences were not present when adjusting for cofounders was modelled. Conclusion High PI on UAD testing in-utero may be associated with increased likelihood of some cardio-vascular risk factors at age 12-years but confounding variables may be as important. Our study raises possible long-term benefits of in-utero UAD measurements.
Resumo:
Explanations for the causes of famine and food insecurity often reside at a high level of aggregation or abstraction. Popular models within famine studies have often emphasised the role of prime movers such as population stress, or the political-economic structure of access channels, as key determinants of food security. Explanation typically resides at the macro level, obscuring the presence of substantial within-country differences in the manner in which such stressors operate. This study offers an alternative approach to analyse the uneven nature of food security, drawing on the Great Irish famine of 1845–1852. Ireland is often viewed as a classical case of Malthusian stress, whereby population outstripped food supply under a pre-famine demographic regime of expanded fertility. Many have also pointed to Ireland's integration with capitalist markets through its colonial relationship with the British state, and country-wide system of landlordism, as key determinants of local agricultural activity. Such models are misguided, ignoring both substantial complexities in regional demography, and the continuity of non-capitalistic, communal modes of land management long into the nineteenth century. Drawing on resilience ecology and complexity theory, this paper subjects a set of aggregate data on pre-famine Ireland to an optimisation clustering procedure, in order to discern the potential presence of distinctive social–ecological regimes. Based on measures of demography, social structure, geography, and land tenure, this typology reveals substantial internal variation in regional social–ecological structure, and vastly differing levels of distress during the peak famine months. This exercise calls into question the validity of accounts which emphasise uniformity of structure, by revealing a variety of regional regimes, which profoundly mediated local conditions of food security. Future research should therefore consider the potential presence of internal variations in resilience and risk exposure, rather than seeking to characterise cases based on singular macro-dynamics and stressors alone.
Resumo:
Our review and meta-analysis examined the association between a posteriori–derived dietary patterns (DPs) and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus. MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for articles published up to July 2012 and data were extracted by two independent reviewers. Overall, 19 cross-sectional, 12 prospective cohort, and two nested case-control studies were eligible for inclusion. Results from cross-sectional studies reported an inconsistent association between DPs and measures of insulin resistance and/or glucose abnormalities, or prevalence of type 2 diabetes. A meta-analysis was carried out on nine prospective cohort studies that had examined DPs derived by principle component/factor analysis and incidence of type 2 diabetes risk (totaling 309,430 participants and 16,644 incident cases). Multivariate-adjusted odds ratios were combined using a random-effects meta-analysis. Two broad DPs (Healthy/Prudent and Unhealthy/Western) were identified based on food factor loadings published in original studies. Pooled results indicated a 15% lower type 2 diabetes risk for those in the highest category of Healthy/Prudent pattern compared with those in the lowest category (95% CI 0.80 to 0.91; P<0.0001). Compared with the lowest category of Unhealthy/Western DP, those in the highest category had a 41% increased risk of type 2 diabetes (95% CI 1.32 to 1.52; P<0.0001). These results provide evidence that DPs are consistently associated with risk of type 2 diabetes even when other lifestyle factors are controlled for. Thus, greater adherence to a DP characterized by high intakes of fruit, vegetables, and complex carbohydrate and low intakes of refined carbohydrate, processed meat, and fried food may be one strategy that could have a positive influence on the global public health burden of type 2 diabetes.
Resumo:
Obesity has been linked with elevated levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), and both have been associated with increased risk of mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Previous studies have used a single ‘baseline’ measurement and such analyses cannot account for possible changes in these which may lead to a biased estimation of risk. Using four cohorts from CHANCES which had repeated measures in participants 50 years and older, multivariate time-dependent Cox proportional hazards was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) to examine the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and CRP with all-cause mortality and CVD. Being overweight (≥25–<30 kg/m2) or moderately obese (≥30–<35) tended to be associated with a lower risk of mortality compared to normal (≥18.5–<25): ESTHER, HR (95 % CI) 0.69 (0.58–0.82) and 0.78 (0.63–0.97); Rotterdam, 0.86 (0.79–0.94) and 0.80 (0.72–0.89). A similar relationship was found, but only for overweight in Glostrup, HR (95 % CI) 0.88 (0.76–1.02); and moderately obese in Tromsø, HR (95 % CI) 0.79 (0.62–1.01). Associations were not evident between repeated measures of BMI and CVD. Conversely, increasing CRP concentrations, measured on more than one occasion, were associated with an increasing risk of mortality and CVD. Being overweight or moderately obese is associated with a lower risk of mortality, while CRP, independent of BMI, is positively associated with mortality and CVD risk. If inflammation links CRP and BMI, they may participate in distinct/independent pathways. Accounting for independent changes in risk factors over time may be crucial for unveiling their effects on mortality and disease morbidity.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: Family-based cardiac screening programmes for persons at risk for genetic cardiac diseases are now recommended. However, the psychological wellbeing and health related quality of life (QoL) of such screened patients is poorly understood, especially in younger patients. We sought to examine wellbeing and QoL in a representative group of adults aged 16 and over in a dedicated family cardiac screening clinic.
METHODS: Prospective survey of consecutive consenting patients attending a cardiac screening clinic, over a 12 month period. Data were collected using two health measurement tools: the Short Form 12 (version 2) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), along with baseline demographic and screening visit-related data. The HADS and SF-12v.2 outcomes were compared by age group. Associations with a higher HADS score were examined using logistic regression, with multi-level modelling used to account for the family-based structure of the data.
RESULTS: There was a study response rate of 86.6%, with n=334 patients providing valid HADS data (valid response rate 79.5%), and data on n=316 retained for analysis. One-fifth of patients were aged under 25 (n=61). Younger patients were less likely than older to describe significant depression on their HADS scale (p<0.0001), although there were overall no difference between the prevalence of a significant HADS score between the younger and older age groups (18.0% vs 20.0%, p=0.73). Significant positive associates of a higher HADS score were having lower educational attainment, being single or separated, and being closely related to the family proband. Between-family variance in anxiety and depression scores was greater than within-family variance.
CONCLUSIONS: High levels of anxiety were seen amongst patients attending a family-based cardiac screening clinic.Younger patients also had high rates of clinically significant anxiety. Higher levels of anxiety and depression tends to run in families, and this has implications for family screening and intervention programmes.
Resumo:
Objectives
The Ebola epidemic has received extensive media coverage since the first diagnosed cases of the virus in the US. We investigated risk perceptions of Ebola among individuals living in the US and measured their knowledge of the virus.
Method
US residents completed an online survey (conducted 14–18 November 2014) that assessed their Ebola knowledge and risk perceptions.
Results
Respondents who were more knowledgeable of Ebola perceived less risk of contracting the virus and were less worried about the virus, but also regarded Ebola as more serious than less knowledgeable respondents. The internet served as a major source of additional information among knowledgeable respondents.
Conclusion
The findings suggest that the provision of health information about Ebola may be effective in informing the public about Ebola risks and of preventive measures without curtailing the seriousness of the virus. Policymakers may seek to further exploit the internet as a means of delivering information about Ebola in the US and worldwide.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: Improving diet and lifestyle is important for prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Observational evidence suggests that increasing fruit and vegetable (FV) consumption may lower CVD risk, largely through modulation of established risk factors, but intervention data are required to fully elucidate the mechanisms by which FVs exert benefits on vascular health.
OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine the dose-response effect of FV intake on cardiovascular risk factors in adults at high CVD risk.
METHODS: This was a randomized controlled parallel group study involving overweight adults (BMI: >27 and ≤35 kg/m(2)) with a habitually low FV intake (≤160 g/d) and a high total risk of developing CVD (estimated ≥20% over 10 y). After a 4-wk run-in period where FV intake was limited to <2 portions/d (<160 g/d), 92 eligible participants were randomly assigned to 1 of 3 groups: to consume either 2, 4, or 7 portions (equivalent to 160 g, 320 g, or 560 g, respectively) of FVs daily for 12 consecutive weeks. Fasting venous blood samples were collected at baseline (week 4) and post-intervention (week 16) for analysis of lipid fractions and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) concentrations. Compliance with the FV intervention was determined with use of self-reported FV intake and biomarkers of micronutrient status. Ambulatory blood pressure and body composition were also measured pre- and post-intervention.
RESULTS: A total of 89 participants completed the study and body composition remained stable throughout the intervention period. Despite good compliance with the intervention, no significant difference was found between the FV groups for change in measures of ambulatory blood pressure, plasma lipids, or hsCRP concentrations.
CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence of a dose-response effect of FV intake on conventional CVD risk factors measured in overweight adults at high CVD risk. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00874341.
