Overestimated crash risks of young and elderly drivers

Young and elderly drivers are reported to have markedly greater crash rates than drivers of other ages, but they travel less frequently and represent a minority of road users. Consequently, many crashes involving young or elderly drivers also involve drivers of middle age ranges who travel more frequently.

An investigation of the changes in the natural frequency of a Pile affected by Scour

Scour around bridge foundations is one of the leading causes of bridge failure. Up until recently, the monitoring of this phenomenon was primarily based around using underwater instrumentation to monitor the progression of scour holes as they develop around foundation systems. Vibration-based damage detection techniques have been used to detect damage in bridge beams. The application of these vibration based methods to the detection of scour has come to the fore in research in recent years. This paper examines the effect that scour has on the frequency response of a driven pile foundation system, similar to those used to support road and rail bridges. The effect of scour on the vibration characteristics of the pile is examined using laboratory and field testing. It is clear that there is a very clear reduction in the natural frequency of the pile as the severity of scour increases. It is shown that by combining state-of-the-art geotechnical techniques with relatively simple finite element modelling approaches, it is possible to accurately predict the natural frequency of the pile for a given scour depth. Therefore, the paper proposes a method that would allow the estimation of scour depth for a given observed pile frequency.

Ultimate lateral load resistance of laterally loaded pile

Several methods are available for predicting ultimate lateral load resistance of laterally loaded pile. These methods often produce significantly different ultimate lateral resistance. This makes it difficult to select an appropriate method in designing/predicting ultimate lateral resistance of pile. This paper presents a review of two different methods; Meyerh of and Patra & Pise for predicting lateral resistance of pile. Then, the predicted ultimate lateral resistances by these two methods are compared with the experimental results. It is found that Meyerhof's method gives better prediction for single pile with smaller L/d ratio whereas Patra & Pise method gives better predictions for pile groups with higher L/d. Thus, none of these methods can be applicable universally for all possible conditions. Also the parametric study on ultimate lateral resistance revealed that length to diameter ratio, pile spacing, pile configuration in a pile group are important parameters for prediction of lateral load resistance. © 2009 Taylor & Francis Group.

Physicochemical tolerance, habitat use and predation are drivers of patterns of coexistence and exclusion among invasive and resident amphipods

1. Patterns of coexistence and exclusion among resident and invading species in freshwaters may be generated by direct biotic interactions well as by indirect interactions with the broader abiotic and biotic environments. The North American ‘shrimp’ Crangonyx pseudogracilis (Crustacea: Amphipoda) is invasive in Europe where it forms complex patterns of apparent exclusion and coexistence with resident Gammarus spp. amphipods. Using a comprehensive integrated approach, we investigated the potential biotic and interacting abiotic factors driving these distribution patterns.
2. A 2009 of 69 sites revealed that of 56 river sites containing amphipods only 6 contained C. pseudogracilis and these always co-occurred with Gammarus spp.. In contrast, C. pseudogracilis was the only species present in the 12 ponds/reservoirs containing amphipods.
3. Field transplant experiments in ponds and laboratory oxygen tolerance experiments revealed that C. pseudogracilis tolerates physicochemical regimes which Gammarus spp. are incapable of surviving.
4. River microhabitat sampling showed C. pseudogracilis dominating in slower, more pooled and macrophyte-dense patches, while Gammarus spp. were dominant in faster, more riffled areas.
5. Field bioassays indicated that predation of C. pseudogracilis by Gammarus spp. may be frequent in patches of rivers if/when the species meet.
6. River drift sampling revealed that C. pseudogracilis was greatly underrepresented in night/day drift relative to the Gammarus spp.. Laboratory studies showed C. pseudogracilis to be more photophobic and less active than Gammarus spp., both behaviours potentially contributing to low drift prevalence and consequent reduced exposure to shared drift predators.
7. These interacting factors may ultimately contribute to the coexistence, exclusion and relative distributions of C. pseudogracilis and Gammarus spp.. The former is potentially subject to intense predation from the latter if they encounter one another in the same microhabitat. However, with C. pseudogracilis being more physicochemically tolerant and displaying different habitat utilisation patterns than the Gammarus spp. in respect of the benthos and drift, such encounters are probably minimised. Hence C. pseudogracilis can persist in the same sites with the Gammarus spp., albeit in different microhabitats.

Drivers of inequality in disability-free expectancy at birth and age 85 across space and time in Great Britain

Background: Although mortality and health inequalities at birth have increased both geographically and in socioeconomic terms, little is known about inequalities at age 85, the fastest growing sector of the population in Great Britain (GB).

Aim: To determine whether trends and drivers of inequalities in life expectancy (LE) and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) at age 85 between 1991 and 2001 are the same as those at birth.

Methods: DFLE at birth and age 85 for 1991 and 2001 by gender were calculated for each local authority in GB using the Sullivan method. Regression modelling was used to identify area characteristics (rurality, deprivation, social class composition, ethnicity, unemployment, retirement migration) that could explain inequalities in LE and DFLE.

Results: Similar to values at birth, LE and DFLE at age 85 both increased between 1991 and 2001 (though DFLE increased less than LE) and gaps across local areas widened (and more for DFLE than LE). The significantly greater increases in LE and DFLE at birth for less-deprived compared with more-deprived areas were still partly present at age 85. Considering all factors, inequalities in DFLE at birth were largely driven by social class composition and unemployment rate, but these associations appear to be less influential at age 85.

Conclusions: Inequalities between areas in LE and DFLE at birth and age 85 have increased over time though factors explaining inequalities at birth (mainly social class and unemployment rates) appear less important for inequalities at age 85.

The role of deposition process on pressure dip formation underneath a granular pile

This paper describes an experimental investigation on the pressure dip phenomenon in a conical pile of granular solids. The roles of different deposition processes such as the pouring rate, pouring height and deposition jet size on the pressure dip formation were studied. Test results confirmed that the pressure dip is a robust phenomenon in a pile formed by top deposition. When the deposition jet radius is significantly smaller than the final pile radius (i.e. concentrated deposition), a dip developed in the centre as shown in previous studies. However, when the deposition jet radius is comparable to the final pile radius (i.e. diffuse deposition), the location of the dip moves towards the edge of deposition jet, with a local maximum pressure developed in the centre. For concentrated deposition, an increase in the pouring rate may enhance the depth of the dip and reduce its width, while an increase in the pouring height has only a negligible effect in the studied range. The results suggest the pressure dip is closely related to the initial location, intensity and form of downslope flows. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Responding to mental health statutory drivers: experience of a low intensity cognitive behavioural therapy programme

Objectives Stress control (SC), a brief psycho-education course, was implemented to increase access to psychological therapies in line with Northern Irish mental health service statutory drivers. The first aim of this study was to gauge the efficacy of SC in a robust manner with clinical significance testing. The second aim was to assess whether demographics traditionally ‘hard-to-reach’ – males, younger adults and those from deprived areas – accessed SC. The third aim was to elucidate what prompted their access and the experiences of attendees at SC. Methods Attendees at SC were 170 adults over six iterations of the course. Pre- and post-questionnaires included the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales – 21, captured demographic details and qualitative feedback, which was subject to a mixed-methods analysis. Results SC attendees reported significant decreases on depression, anxiety and stress sub-scales post-intervention. Moreover, 38.71% ( n =36) of attendees who completed SC exhibited clinically significant improvement afterwards on one or more sub-scale. Attendance figures for males, younger adults and those classified as socioeconomically deprived were modest. Patterns within the data suggested prospective success for targeting these cohorts. Conclusions SC attracted people in need of mental healthcare input and affected quantifiable change within those people’s lives, while satisfying statutory demands for service delivery in an accessible community context. Recommendations to increase engagement with those traditionally ‘hard-to-reach’ for psychological services are provided, which, if implemented, have the potential to achieve further compliance with Northern Irish mental health statutory drivers.

Mathematical Modeling to Assess the Drivers of the Recent Emergence of Typhoid Fever in Blantyre, Malawi

BACKGROUND: Multiyear epidemics of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi have been reported from countries across eastern and southern Africa in recent years. In Blantyre, Malawi, a dramatic increase in typhoid fever cases has recently occurred, and may be linked to the emergence of the H58 haplotype. Strains belonging to the H58 haplotype often exhibit multidrug resistance and may have a fitness advantage relative to other Salmonella Typhi strains.

METHODS: To explore hypotheses for the increased number of typhoid fever cases in Blantyre, we fit a mathematical model to culture-confirmed cases of Salmonella enterica infections at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre. We explored 4 hypotheses: (1) an increase in the basic reproductive number (R0) in response to increasing population density; (2) a decrease in the incidence of cross-immunizing infection with Salmonella Enteritidis; (3) an increase in the duration of infectiousness due to failure to respond to first-line antibiotics; and (4) an increase in the transmission rate following the emergence of the H58 haplotype.

RESULTS: Increasing population density or decreasing cross-immunity could not fully explain the observed pattern of typhoid emergence in Blantyre, whereas models allowing for an increase in the duration of infectiousness and/or the transmission rate of typhoid following the emergence of the H58 haplotype provided a good fit to the data.

CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that an increase in the transmissibility of typhoid due to the emergence of drug resistance associated with the H58 haplotype may help to explain recent outbreaks of typhoid in Malawi and similar settings in Africa.

Northern Ireland Policing Board Confidence in Policing Research: Key Drivers of Confidence

In January 2014, the Northern Ireland Policing Board (NIPB) commissioned the University of Ulster to conduct research into public confidence in policing to help inform the work of the Board and its oversight of police service delivery. More specifically, the research team were tasked with exploring ‘the key drivers of confidence in Northern Ireland’. To date, the subject of ‘confidence in policing’ within a Northern Ireland context has been relatively under researched, both in academic and policy terms. Thus, the present research is the first empirical research to be produced in the country to empirically assess confidence in policing from a cross section of society – including the key dynamics and drivers that underpin police confidence at a community level.

The report begins with a comprehensive review of academic literature, policy documents and contemporary events related to confidence in policing. The research then provides an overview of the methodology used to undertake the research, with the remainder of the report comprised of the findings from the survey. The report concludes with an overview of the central findings along with a series of recommendations.