Energy levels, wavefunction compositions and electric dipole transitions in neutral Ca

A configuration-interaction approach, based on the use of B-spline basis sets combined with a model potential including monoelectronic and dielectronic core polarization effects, is employed to calculate term energies and wavefunctions for neutral Ca. Results are reported for singlet and triplet bound states, and some quasi-bound states above the lowest ionization limit, with angular momentum up to L = 4. Comparison with experiment and with other theoretical results shows that this method yields the most accurate energy values for neutral Ca obtained to date. Wavefunction compositions, necessary for labelling the levels, and the effects of semi-empirical polarization potentials on the wavefunctions are discussed, as are some recent identifications of doubly-excited states. It is shown that taking into account dielectronic core polarization changes the energies of the lowest terms in Ca significantly, in general by a few hundred cm(-1), the effect decreasing rapidly for the higher bound states. For Rydberg states with n approximate to 7 the accuracy of the results is often better than a few cm(-1). For series members (or perturbers) with a pronounced 3d character the error can reach 150 cm(-1). The wavefunctions are used to calculate oscillator strengths and lifetimes for a number of terms and these are compared with existing measurements. The agreement is good but points to a need for improved measurements.

Recoil-induced electronic excitation and ionization in one-and two-electron ions

The electronic redistribution of an ion or atom induced by a sudden recoil of the nucleus occurring during the emission or capture of a neutral particle is theoretically investigated. For one-electron systems, analytical expressions are derived for the electronic transition probabilities to bound and continuum states. The quality of a B-spline basis set approach is evaluated from a detailed comparison with the analytical results. This numerical approach is then used Io study the dynamics of two-electron systems (neutral He and Ne ) using correlated wavefunctions for both the target and daughter ions. The total transition probabilities to discrete states, autoionizing states and direct single- and double-ionization probabilities are calculated from the pseudospectra. Sum rules for transition probabilities involving an initial bound state and a complete final series are discussed.

INFLUENCE OF CORE POLARIZATION ON THE ELECTRON-AFFINITY OF CA

We have developed a method, based on the use of B-spline basis sets and model potentials, for determining properties of systems with two or three electrons outside a polarizable closed-shell core. It is applied to the calculation of the electron affinity of Ca and the resulting value of 17.7 meV is in excellent agreement with the most recent experiments. It is found that the dielectronic core-valence interaction reduces the electron affinity by 39.5 meV.

Hierarchical Bayesian models in ecology: Reconstructing species interaction networks from non-homogeneous species abundance data

The relationships among organisms and their surroundings can be of immense complexity. To describe and understand an ecosystem as a tangled bank, multiple ways of interaction and their effects have to be considered, such as predation, competition, mutualism and facilitation. Understanding the resulting interaction networks is a challenge in changing environments, e.g. to predict knock-on effects of invasive species and to understand how climate change impacts biodiversity. The elucidation of complex ecological systems with their interactions will benefit enormously from the development of new machine learning tools that aim to infer the structure of interaction networks from field data. In the present study, we propose a novel Bayesian regression and multiple changepoint model (BRAM) for reconstructing species interaction networks from observed species distributions. The model has been devised to allow robust inference in the presence of spatial autocorrelation and distributional heterogeneity. We have evaluated the model on simulated data that combines a trophic niche model with a stochastic population model on a 2-dimensional lattice, and we have compared the performance of our model with L1-penalized sparse regression (LASSO) and non-linear Bayesian networks with the BDe scoring scheme. In addition, we have applied our method to plant ground coverage data from the western shore of the Outer Hebrides with the objective to infer the ecological interactions. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Late Quaternary tephrostratigraphy, Ahklun Mountains, SW Alaska

Radiocarbon-dated sediment cores from six lakes in the Ahklun Mountains, south-western Alaska, were used to interpolate the ages of late Quaternary tephra beds ranging in age from 25.4 to 0.4ka. The lakes are located downwind of the Aleutian Arc and Alaska Peninsula volcanoes in the northern Bristol Bay area between 159° and 161°W at around 60°N. Sedimentation-rate age models for each lake were based on a published spline-fit procedure that uses Monte Carlo simulation to determine age model uncertainty. In all, 62 C ages were used to construct the six age models, including 23 ages presented here for the first time. The age model from Lone Spruce Pond is based on 18 ages, and is currently the best-resolved Holocene age model available from the region, with an average 2s age uncertainty of about±109 years over the past 14.5ka. The sedimentary sequence from Lone Spruce Pond contains seven tephra beds, more than previously found in any other lake in the area. Of the 26 radiocarbon-dated tephra beds at the six lakes and from a soil pit, seven are correlated between two or more sites based on their ages. The major-element geochemistry of glass shards from most of these tephra beds supports the age-based correlations. The remaining tephra beds appear to be present at only one site based on their unique geochemistry or age. The 5.8ka tephra is similar to the widespread Aniakchak tephra [3.7±0.2 (1s) ka], but can be distinguished conclusively based on its trace-element geochemistry. The 3.1 and 0.4ka tephras have glass major- and trace-element geochemical compositions indistinguishable from prominent Aniakchak tephra, and might represent redeposited beds. Only two tephra beds are found in all lakes: the Aniakchak tephra (3.7±0.2ka) and Tephra B (6.1±0.3ka). The tephra beds can be used as chronostratigraphic markers for other sedimentary sequences in the region, including cores from Cascade and Sunday lakes, which were previously undated and were analyzed in this study to correlate with the new regional tephrostratigraphy. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A New Principal Curve Algorithm for Nonlinear Principal Component Analysis

This paper emerged from work supported by EPSRC grant GR/S84354/01 and proposes a method of determining principal curves, using spline functions, in principal component analysis (PCA) for the representation of non-linear behaviour in process monitoring. Although principal curves are well established, they are difficult to implement in practice if a large number of variables are analysed. The significant contribution of this paper is that the proposed method has minimal complexity, assuming simple spline geometry, thus enabling efficient computation. The paper provides a foundation for further work where multiple curves may be required to represent underlying non-linear information in complex data.

Positron scattering and annihilation in hydrogenlike ions

Diagrammatic many-body theory is used to calculate the scattering phase shifts, normalized annihilation rates Zeff, and annihilation ? spectra for positron collisions with the hydrogenlike ions He+, Li2+, B4+, and F8+. Short-range electron-positron correlations and longer-range positron-ion correlations are accounted for by evaluating nonlocal corrections to the annihilation vertex and the exact positron self-energy. The numerical calculation of the many-body theory diagrams is performed using B-spline basis sets. To elucidate the role of the positron-ion repulsion, the annihilation rate is also estimated analytically in the Coulomb-Born approximation. It is found that the energy dependence and magnitude of Zeff are governed by the Gamow factor that characterizes the suppression of the positron wave function near the ion. For all of the H-like ions, the correlation enhancement of the annihilation rate is found to be predominantly due to corrections to the annihilation vertex, while the corrections to the positron wave function play only a minor role. Results of the calculations for s-, p-, and d-wave incident positrons of energies up to the positronium-formation threshold are presented. Where comparison is possible, our values are in excellent agreement with the results obtained using other, e.g., variational, methods. The annihilation-vertex enhancement factors obtained in the present calculations are found to scale approximately as 1+(1.6+0.46l)/Zi, where Zi is the net charge of the ion and l is the positron orbital angular momentum. Our results for positron annihilation in H-like ions provide insights into the problem of positron annihilation with core electrons in atoms and condensed matter systems, which have similar binding energies.

Time-dependent R-matrix theory applied to two-photon double ionization of He

We introduce a time-dependent R-matrix theory generalized to describe double-ionization processes. The method is used to investigate two-photon double ionization of He by intense XUV laser radiation. We combine a detailed B-spline-based wave-function description in an extended inner region with a single-electron outer region containing channels representing both single ionization and double ionization. A comparison of wave-function densities for different box sizes demonstrates that the flow between the two regions is described with excellent accuracy. The obtained two-photon double-ionization cross sections are in excellent agreement with other cross sections available. Compared to calculations fully contained within a finite inner region, the present calculations can be propagated over the time it takes the slowest electron to reach the boundary.

Improving parameter learning of Bayesian nets from incomplete data

This paper addresses the estimation of parameters of a Bayesian network from incomplete data. The task is usually tackled by running the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm several times in order to obtain a high log-likelihood estimate. We argue that choosing the maximum log-likelihood estimate (as well as the maximum penalized log-likelihood and the maximum a posteriori estimate) has severe drawbacks, being affected both by overfitting and model uncertainty. Two ideas are discussed to overcome these issues: a maximum entropy approach and a Bayesian model averaging approach. Both ideas can be easily applied on top of EM, while the entropy idea can be also implemented in a more sophisticated way, through a dedicated non-linear solver. A vast set of experiments shows that these ideas produce significantly better estimates and inferences than the traditional and widely used maximum (penalized) log-likelihood and maximum a posteriori estimates. In particular, if EM is adopted as optimization engine, the model averaging approach is the best performing one; its performance is matched by the entropy approach when implemented using the non-linear solver. The results suggest that the applicability of these ideas is immediate (they are easy to implement and to integrate in currently available inference engines) and that they constitute a better way to learn Bayesian network parameters.

PREDICTING THE SPATIAL-DISTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE - TEMPERATURE IN GREAT-BRITAIN

1. The prediction and mapping of climate in areas between climate stations is of increasing importance in ecology.

2. Four categories of model, simple interpolation, thin plate splines, multiple linear regression and mixed spline-regression, were tested for their ability to predict the spatial distribution of temperature on the British mainland. The models were tested by external cross-verification.

3. The British distribution of mean daily temperature was predicted with the greatest accuracy by using a mixed model: a thin plate spline fitted to the surface of the country, after correction of the data by a selection from 16 independent topographical variables (such as altitude, distance from the sea, slope and topographic roughness), chosen by multiple regression from a digital terrain model (DTM) of the country.

4. The next most accurate method was a pure multiple regression model using the DTM. Both regression and thin plate spline models based on a few variables (latitude, longitude and altitude) only were comparatively unsatisfactory, but some rather simple methods of surface interpolation (such as bilinear interpolation after correction to sea level) gave moderately satisfactory results. Differences between the methods seemed to be dependent largely on their ability to model the effect of the sea on land temperatures.

5. Prediction of temperature by the best methods was greater than 95% accurate in all months of the year, as shown by the correlation between the predicted and actual values. The predicted temperatures were calculated at real altitudes, not subject to sea-level correction.

6. A minimum of just over 30 temperature recording stations would generate a satisfactory surface, provided the stations were well spaced.

7. Maps of mean daily temperature, using the best overall methods are provided; further important variables, such as continentality and length of growing season, were also mapped. Many of these are believed to be the first detailed representations at real altitude.

8. The interpolated monthly temperature surfaces are available on disk.

van der Waals coefficients for positronium interactions with atoms

The random-phase approximation with exchange (RPAE) is used with a B-spline basis to compute dynamic dipole polarizabilities of noble-gas atoms and several other closed-shell atoms (Be, Mg, Ca, Zn, Sr, Cd, and Ba). From these, values of the van der Waals C₆ constants for positronium interactions with these atoms are determined and compared with existing data. After correcting the RPAE polarizabilities to fit the most accurate static polarizability data, our best predictions of C₆ for Ps–noble-gas pairs are expected to be accurate to within 1%, and to within a few percent for the alkaline-earth metals. We also used accurate dynamic dipole polarizabilities from the literature to compute the C₆ coefficients for the alkali-metal atoms. Implications of increased C₆ values for Ps scattering from more polarizable atoms are discussed.

A Simultaneous Equation Approach to Estimating HIV Prevalence with Non-Ignorable Missing Responses

Estimates of HIV prevalence are important for policy in order to establish the health status of a country's population and to evaluate the effectiveness of population-based interventions and campaigns. However, participation rates in testing for surveillance conducted as part of household surveys, on which many of these estimates are based, can be low. HIV positive individuals may be less likely to participate because they fear disclosure, in which case estimates obtained using conventional approaches to deal with missing data, such as imputation-based methods, will be biased. We develop a Heckman-type simultaneous equation approach which accounts for non-ignorable selection, but unlike previous implementations, allows for spatial dependence and does not impose a homogeneous selection process on all respondents. In addition, our framework addresses the issue of separation, where for instance some factors are severely unbalanced and highly predictive of the response, which would ordinarily prevent model convergence. Estimation is carried out within a penalized likelihood framework where smoothing is achieved using a parametrization of the smoothing criterion which makes estimation more stable and efficient. We provide the software for straightforward implementation of the proposed approach, and apply our methodology to estimating national and sub-national HIV prevalence in Swaziland, Zimbabwe and Zambia.