Modelling the flow of congestive heart failure patients through a hospital system

The number of hospital admissions in England due to heart failure is projected to increase by over 50% during the next 25 years. This will incur greater pressures on hospital managers to allocate resources in an effective manner. A reliable indicator for measuring the quantity of resources consumed by hospital patients is their length of stay (LOS) in care. This paper proposes modelling the length of time heart failure patients spend in hospital using a special type of Markov model, where the flow of patients through hospital can be thought of as consisting of three stages of care—short-, medium- and longer-term care. If it is assumed that new admissions into the ward are replacements for discharges, such a model may be used to investigate the case-mix of patients in hospital and the expected patient turnover during some specified period of time. An example is illustrated by considering hospital admissions to a Belfast hospital in Northern Ireland, between 2000 and 2004.

Examining architects' performance in Nigeria private and public sectors building projects

Abstract: Purpose – The aim of this paper is to examine and compare the performance of architects with respect to clients' rating of importance over a set of performance criteria in Nigerian public and private sector building projects. Design/methodology/approach – A survey involving clients from both public and private sectors of recently completed building projects in Nigeria was undertaken. Data analysis includes comparing similarities and differences using standardised ratio, Mann Whitney U and Wilcoxon tests. Findings – The results show that private sector clients are likely to be more concerned with cost, while public sector clients are more concerned with buildability of design. A total of 79 per cent of the criteria were similarly selected by both sectors with respect to importance of the criteria. Architects need to improve their performance significantly in about 82 per cent of the whole set of 28 criteria. The architects performed better in the public sector than the private sector and 14 per cent of the criteria were indicated as being statistically different in terms of architects' performance. Originality/value – The results provide feedback which can be incorporated in architects' future projects so as to ensure successful project implementation in the building delivery process.

Risk adjustment for hospital use using social security data: cross sectional small area analysis

Objectives: To identify demographic and socioeconomic determinants of need for acute hospital treatment at small area level. To establish whether there is a relation between poverty and use of inpatient services. To devise a risk adjustment formula for distributing public funds for hospital services using, as far as possible, variables that can be updated between censuses. Design: Cross sectional analysis. Spatial interactive modelling was used to quantify the proximity of the population to health service facilities. Two stage weighted least squares regression was used to model use against supply of hospital and community services and a wide range of potential needs drivers including health, socioeconomic census variables, uptake of income support and family credit, and religious denomination. Setting: Northern Ireland. Main outcome measure: Intensity of use of inpatient services. Results: After endogeneity of supply and use was taken into account, a statistical model was produced that predicted use based on five variables: income support, family credit, elderly people living alone, all ages standardised mortality ratio, and low birth weight. The main effect of the formula produced is to move resources from urban to rural areas. Conclusions: This work has produced a population risk adjustment formula for acute hospital treatment in which four of the five variables can be updated annually rather than relying on census derived data. Inclusion of the social security data makes a substantial difference to the model and to the results produced by the formula.