Rheumatologists' judgements about the efficacy of anti-TNF therapy in two neighbouring regions

Objectives: The requirement in Northern Ireland to prescribe biologic agents according to NICE/BSR guidelines and within a fixed budget has created a waiting list for treatment that has no parallel in the Republic of Ireland. The study investigated the bearing this situation may have on had on the consultants’ judgements in the respective areas.

Methods: 78 case vignettes created from the data on real patients with RA treated with biologics in the north and south of Ireland were appraised by 9 southern and 8 northern consultants who judged the clinical benefit and significance of the patients’ condition after a trial of therapy. Quantitative (Clinical Judgement Analysis) and Qualitative (Focus groups) techniques were used.

Results: Northern consultants perceived a slightly greater degree of clinical benefit after a trial of therapy than southern consultants. Judgment models of northern and southern consultants were broadly comparable. The latter tended to be more uniform in their judgments than the southern group. Focus group discussions with consultants largely validated the findings of the quantitative analysis but revealed how clinical judgment analysis might be misled by gaming strategies.

Conclusions: Despite the absence of overt rationing in the south of Ireland, as far as the judgment of therapeutic benefit from biologics was concerned, the clinical judgment policies of practitioners were very similar to those in the north. The adoption of NICE/BSR guidelines in the north may have improved the uniformity of clinical practice in Northern Ireland.

Retrospective assessment of dryland soil stability in relation to grazing and climate change

Accelerated soil erosion is an aspect of dryland degradation that is affected by repeated intense drought events and land management activities such as commercial livestock grazing. A soil stability index (SSI) that detects the erosion status and susceptibility of a landscape at the pixel level, i.e., stable, erosional, or depositional pixels, was derived from the spectral properties of an archived time series (from 1972 to 1997) of Landsat satellite data of a commercial ranch in northeastern Utah. The SSI was retrospectively validated with contemporary field measures of soil organic matter and erosion status that was surveyed by US federal land management agencies. Catastrophe theory provided the conceptual framework for retrospective assessment of the impact of commercial grazing and soil water availability on the SSI. The overall SSI trend was from an eroding landscape in the early drier 1970s towards stable conditions in the wetter mid-1980s and late 1990s. The landscape catastrophically shifted towards an extreme eroding state that was coincident with the “The Great North American Drought of 1988”. Periods of landscape stability and trajectories toward stability were coincident with extremely wet El Niño events. Commercial grazing had less correlation with soil stability than drought conditions. However, the landscape became more susceptible to erosion events under multiple droughts and grazing. Land managers now have nearly a year warning of El Niño and La Niña events and can adjust their management decisions according to predicted landscape erosion conditions.

Analysis of the nearshore wave energy resource

Earlier studies have indicated that the gross nearshore wave energy resource is significantly smaller than the gross offshore wave energy resource implying that the deployment of wave energy converters in the nearshore is unlikely to be economic. However, it is argued that the gross wave energy resource is not an appropriate measure for determining the productivity of a wave farm and an alternative measure, the exploitable wave energy resource, is proposed. Calculation of a site's potential using the exploitable wave energy resource is considered superior because it accounts for the directional distribution of the incident waves and the wave energy plant rating that limits the power capture in highly energetic sea-states. A third-generation spectral wave model is used to model the wave transformation from deep water to a nearshore site in a water depth of 10 m. It is shown that energy losses result in a reduction of less than 10% of the net incident wave power. Annual wave data for the North Atlantic coast of Scotland is analysed and indicates that whilst the gross wave energy resource has reduced significantly by the 10 m depth contour, the exploitable wave energy resource is reduced by 7 and 22% for the two sites analysed. This limited reduction in exploitable wave energy resource means that for many exposed coasts, nearshore sites offer similar potential for exploitation of the wave energy resource as offshore sites.

Can Civil Society Succeed Where Elites Have Failed in the War on Sectarianism? Towards an infinitely demanding politics for the North

Caught between the well-armed imaginations of paramilitary organisations competing for the hearts and minds of a divided population, and state engineering of a liberal peace, civil society's impact on Northern Ireland's identity politics was limited during the thirty-year conflict. Specifically, the community and voluntary sector itself has tended to replicate as much as it challenged patterns of segregation in many of its own structures. With plans set out in the Northern Ireland Executive's Programme for Government (2008-11) to engage civil society in opening a new era of ‘good relations’ work to counter sectarianism and racism, civil society organisations will face a complex terrain, facing scepticism about their contribution to peace-making before the Good Friday Agreement, and working in a post-Agreement environment marked by continuing elite and communal antagonism demonstrated by the crisis at the turn of 2009 over devolution of justice and policing powers to the Northern Ireland Executive. A significant aspect of the resolution was a belated agreement by Sinn Fein and the DUP on a new community relation strategy, Cohesion, Sharing and Integration. This article suggests that civil society has a significant role to play in encouraging communities to confront the contradictions and tensions that continue to haunt the political architects of the Good Friday Agreement by affirming a radical and contingent vision of democracy as democratisation at a distance from the identity-saturated politics of the state-region of Northern Ireland. It draws on the work of Simon Critchley, Emmanuel Levinas and Wendy Brown, to offer an approach to identity politics in post-conflict Northern Ireland, focusing on the future orientation of civil society.

The role of infrequent and extraordinary deep dives in leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea)

Infrequent and exceptional behaviours can provide insight into the ecology and physiology of a particular species. Here we examined extraordinarily deep (300-1250 m) and protracted (>1h) dives made by critically endangered leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the context of three previously suggested hypotheses: predator evasion, thermoregulation and exploration for gelatinous prey. Data were obtained via satellite relay data loggers attached to adult turtles at nesting beaches (N=11) and temperate foraging grounds (N=2), constituting a combined tracking period of 9.6 years (N=26,146 dives) and spanning the entire North Atlantic Ocean. Of the dives, 99.6% (N=26,051) were to depths <300 m with only 0.4% (N=95) extending to greater depths (subsequently termed 'deep dives'). Analysis suggested that deep dives: (1) were normally distributed around midday; (2) may exceed the inferred aerobic dive limit for the species; (3) displayed slow vertical descent rates and protracted durations; (4) were much deeper than the thermocline; and (5) occurred predominantly during transit, yet ceased once seasonal residence on foraging grounds began. These findings support the hypothesis that deep dives are periodically employed to survey the water column for diurnally descending gelatinous prey. If a suitable patch is encountered then the turtle may cease transit and remain within that area, waiting for prey to approach the surface at night. If unsuccessful, then migration may continue until a more suitable site is encountered. Additional studies using a meta-analytical approach are nonetheless recommended to further resolve this matter.

Multiple origins of European populations of giant liver fluke Fascioloides magna (Trematoda: Fasciolidae), an invasive liver parasite of ruminants

The giant liver fluke, Fascioloides magna, liver parasite of free-living and domestic ruminants of Europe and North America, was analysed in order to determine the origin of European populations and to reveal the biogeography of this originally North American parasite on the European continent. The previously selected variable fragments of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (cox1; 384 bp) and nicotinamid dehydrogenase subunit I (nad1; 405 bp) were applied as a tool. The phylogenetic trees and haplotype networks were constructed and the level of genetic structuring was evaluated using population genetic tools. In F. magna individuals originating from all European natural foci (Italy, Czech Republic, Danube floodplain forests) and from four of five major North American enzootic areas, 16 cox1 and 18 nad1 haplotypes were determined. The concatenated sequence set produced 22 distinct haplotypes. The European fluke populations were less diverse than those from North America in that they contained proportionately fewer haplotypes (8), while more substantial level of genetic diversity and higher number of haplotypes (15) were recorded in North America. Only one haplotype was shared between the European (Italy) and North American (USA/Oregon and Canada/Alberta) flukes supporting a western North American origin of the Italian F. magna population. Haplotypes found in Italy were distinct from those determined in the remaining European localities what indicates that introduction of F. magna onto the European continent is a result of more than one event. In Czech focus, a south-eastern US origin of giant liver fluke was revealed. Identical haplotypes, common for parasites from Czech Republic and from expanding focus of Danube floodplain forests, implies introduction of F. magna to the Danube region from an already established Czech focus.

Neolithic farming in north-western Europe: archaeobotanical evidence from Ireland

This paper presents significant new insights into the appearance of agriculture at the north- western edge of Europe, focusing on Neolithic Ireland (4000-2500 cal BC). Previous studies were based upon a limited plant macro-remains dataset, as much of the Irish evidence is unpublished. A research project, 'Cultivating Societies', was implemented to examine the nature, timing and extent of agricultural activity in Neolithic Ireland through collation and analysis of different strands of published and unpublished archaeological and environmental evidence, with a particular focus on plant macro- remains, pollen, settlement and 14C data. Plant macro-remains from a total of 52 excavated sites were collated and analysed, representing the most comprehensive study to date of Neolithic plant remains from this region. Cereals were present at many locations and site types, sometimes in large quantities and most often at sites dating to the earlier Neolithic (3750-3600 cal BC). Emmer wheat was the dominant crop, at least at this time. Other crops included naked and hulled barley, naked wheat, einkorn wheat and flax. Analysis of arable weeds indicates that early plots were not managed under a shifting cultivation regime, which has important implications for understanding Neolithic settlement practices and how communities engaged with landscapes. The variety of crops cultivated in Neolithic Ireland is similar to those in Britain, reflecting a decreasing diversity in crop types as agriculture spread from south-east to north-west Europe.

“A Labour Leader in a Frothy Scoundrel”: Farce and Social Justice in the Popular Dramaturgy of George Shiels

In the financially precarious period which followed the partition of Ireland (1922) the Northern Irish playwright George Shiels kept The Abbey Theatre, Dublin, open for business with a series of ‘box-office’ successes. Literary Dublin was not so appreciative of his work as the Abbey audiences dubbing his popular dramaturgy mere ‘kitchen comedy’. However, recent analysts of Irish theatre are beginning to recognise that Shiels used popular theatre methods to illuminate and interrogate instances of social injustice both north and south of the Irish border. In doing so, such commentators have set up a hierarchy between the playwright’s early ‘inferior’ comedies and his later ‘superior’ works of Irish Realism. This article rejects this binary by suggesting that in this early work Shiels’s intent is equally socially critical and that in the plays Paul Twyning, Professor Tim and The Retrievers he is actively engaging with the farcical tradition in order to expose the marginalisation of the landless classes in Ireland in the post-colonial jurisdictions.

An analysis of implied volatility jump dynamics: Novel functional data representation in crude oil markets

The predominant fear in capital markets is that of a price spike. Commodity markets differ in that there is a fear of both upward and down jumps, this results in implied volatility curves displaying distinct shapes when compared to equity markets. The use of a novel functional data analysis (FDA) approach, provides a framework to produce and interpret functional objects that characterise the underlying dynamics of oil future options. We use the FDA framework to examine implied volatility, jump risk, and pricing dynamics within crude oil markets. Examining a WTI crude oil sample for the 2007–2013 period, which includes the global financial crisis and the Arab Spring, strong evidence is found of converse jump dynamics during periods of demand and supply side weakness. This is used as a basis for an FDA-derived Merton (1976) jump diffusion optimised delta hedging strategy, which exhibits superior portfolio management results over traditional methods.

Parents’ and young people’s involvement in designing a trial of ventilator weaning

Consulting with users is considered best practice and is highly recommended in designing new trials. As part of our feasibility work, we undertook a consultation exercise with parents, ex-patients and young people prior to designing a trial of protocol-based ventilator weaning. Our aims were to (1) ascertain views on the relevance and importance of the trial; (2) determine the important parent/patient outcome measures; and (3) ascertain views on informed consent in a cluster randomized controlled trial. We conducted audio-recorded face-to-face, telephone and focus group interviews with parents and young people. Data were content analysed to generate information to address our specific consultation objectives. The setting was the north-western region of England. A total of 16 participants were interviewed: 2 parents of paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) survivors; 1 PICU survivor; and 13 young people from the former Medicines for Children Research Network. The trial objectives were deemed important and relevant, and participants considered the most important outcome measure to be the length of time on ventilation. Parents and young people did not consider written informed consent to be a necessary requirement in the context of this trial, rather awareness of unit participation in the trial was important with the opportunity of opting out of data collection. This consultation provided useful, pragmatic insights to inform trial design. We encountered significant challenges in recruiting parents and young people for this consultation exercise, and novel recruitment methods need to be considered for future work in this field. Patient and public involvement is essential to ensure that future trials answer parent-relevant questions and have meaningful outcome measures, as well as involving parents and young people in the general development of health care services.

New transiting exoplanets from the SuperWASP-North survey

The Wide Angle Search for Planet (WASP) project is one of the leading projects in the discovery of transiting exoplanets. We present 1) the current status of the WASP-North survey, 2) our recent exoplanet discoveries, and 3) we exemplify how these results fit into our understanding of transiting exoplanet properties and how they can help to understand exoplanet diversity.

Evidence of syntactic working memory usage in MEG data

While reading times are often used to measure working memory load, frequency effects (such as surprisal or n-gram frequencies) also have strong confounding effects on reading times. This work uses a naturalistic audio corpus with magnetoencephalographic (MEG) annotations to measure working memory load during sentence processing. Alpha oscillations in posterior regions of the brain have been found to correlate with working memory load in non-linguistic tasks (Jensen et al., 2002), and the present study extends these findings to working memory load caused by syntactic center embeddings. Moreover, this work finds that frequency effects in naturally-occurring stimuli do not significantly contribute to neural oscillations in any frequency band, which suggests that many modeling claims could be tested on this sort of data even without controlling for frequency effects.

Cartographies of Differences:Interdisciplinary Perspectives

The co-edited collection investigates the processes of learning how to live with individual and groups differences in the 21century and examines the ambivalences of contemporary cosmopolitanism. The contributions focus on visual, normative and cultural embodiments of differences, examining conflicts at local sites that are connected by the processes of Europeanization and globalization.