A Bayesian Network Hybrid Model for Representing Accident and Emergency Waiting Times

The paper introduces a new modeling approach that represents the waiting times in an Accident and Emergency (A&E) Department in a UK based National Health Service (NHS) hospital. The technique uses Bayesian networks to capture the heterogeneity of arriving patients by representing how patient covariates interact to influence their waiting times in the department. Such waiting times have been reviewed by the NHS as a means of investigating the efficiency of A&E departments (Emergency Rooms) and how they operate. As a result activity targets are now established based on the patient total waiting times with much emphasis on trolley waits.

A Bayesian network hybrid model for representing accident and emergency waiting times

The paper introduces a new modeling approach that represents the waiting times in an accident and emergency (A&E) department in a UK based national health service (NHS) hospital. The technique uses Bayesian networks to capture the heterogeneity of arriving patients by representing how patient covariates interact to influence their waiting times in the department. Such waiting times have been reviewed by the NHS as a means of investigating the efficiency of A&E departments (emergency rooms) and how they operate. As a result activity targets are now established based on the patient total waiting times with much emphasis on trolley waits.

A decentralized model of information pricing in networks

We propose a recursive method of pricing an information good in a network of holders and demanders of this good. The prices are determined via a unique equilibrium outcome in a sequence of bilateral bargaining games that are played by connected agents. If the information is an homogenous, non-depreciating good without network effects we derive explicit formulae which elucidate the role of the link pattern among the players. Particularly, we find out that the equilibrium price is intimately related to the existence of cycles in the network: It is zero if a cycle covers the trading pair and it is proportional to the direct and indirect utility that the good generates otherwise.

Evaluation of predicted network modules in yeast metabolism using NMR-based metabolite profiling

Genome-scale metabolic models promise important insights into cell function. However, the definition of pathways and functional network modules within these models, and in the biochemical literature in general, is often based on intuitive reasoning. Although mathematical methods have been proposed to identify modules, which are defined as groups of reactions with correlated fluxes, there is a need for experimental verification. We show here that multivariate statistical analysis of the NMR-derived intra- and extracellular metabolite profiles of single-gene deletion mutants in specific metabolic pathways in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae identified outliers whose profiles were markedly different from those of the other mutants in their respective pathways. Application of flux coupling analysis to a metabolic model of this yeast showed that the deleted gene in an outlying mutant encoded an enzyme that was not part of the same functional network module as the other enzymes in the pathway. We suggest that metabolomic methods such as this, which do not require any knowledge of how a gene deletion might perturb the metabolic network, provide an empirical method for validating and ultimately refining the predicted network structure.

Modelling the correlation between processing parameters and properties of maraging steels using artificial neural network

An artificial neural network (ANN) model is developed for the analysis and simulation of the correlation between the properties of maraging steels and composition, processing and working conditions. The input parameters of the model consist of alloy composition, processing parameters (including cold deformation degree, ageing temperature, and ageing time), and working temperature. The outputs of the ANN model include property parameters namely: ultimate tensile strength, yield strength, elongation, reduction in area, hardness, notched tensile strength, Charpy impact energy, fracture toughness, and martensitic transformation start temperature. Good performance of the ANN model is achieved. The model can be used to calculate properties of maraging steels as functions of alloy composition, processing parameters, and working condition. The combined influence of Co and Mo on the properties of maraging steels is simulated using the model. The results are in agreement with experimental data. Explanation of the calculated results from the metallurgical point of view is attempted. The model can be used as a guide for further alloy development.

On velocity-based local model networks for nonlinear identification

This paper exposes the strengths and weaknesses of the recently proposed velocity-based local model (LM) network. The global dynamics of the velocity-based blended representation are directly related to the dynamics of the underlying local models, an important property in the design of local controller networks. Furthermore, the sub-models are continuous-time and linear providing continuity with established linear theory and methods. This is not true for the conventional LM framework, where the global dynamics are only weakly related to the affine sub-models. In this paper, a velocity-based multiple model network is identified for a highly nonlinear dynamical system. The results show excellent dynamical modelling performances, highlighting the value of the velocity-based approach for the design and analysis of LM based control. Three important practical issues are also addressed. These relate to the blending of the velocity-based local models, the use of normalised Gaussian basis functions and the requirement of an input derivative.

Density-Enhanced Gas and Dust Shells in a New Chemical Model for IRC+10216

A new chemical model is presented for the carbon-rich circumstellar envelope (CSE) of the asymptotic giant branch star IRC+10216. The model includes shells of matter with densities that are enhanced relative to the surrounding circumstellar medium. The chemical model uses an updated reaction network including reactions from the RATE06 database and a more detailed anion chemistry. In particular, new mechanisms are considered for the formation of CN-, C3N-, and C2H-, and for the reactions of hydrocarbon anions with atomic nitrogen and with the most abundant cations in the CSE. New reactions involving H- are included which result in the production of significant amounts of C2H- and CN- in the inner envelope. The calculated radial molecular abundance profiles for the hydrocarbons C2H, C4H, and C6H and the cyanopolyynes HC3N and HC5N show narrow peaks which are in better agreement with observations than previous models. Thus, the narrow rings observed in molecular microwave emission surrounding IRC+10216 are interpreted as arising in regions of the envelope where the gas and dust densities are greater than the surrounding circumstellar medium. Our models show that CN- and C2H- may be detectable in IRC+10216 despite the very low theorized radiative electron attachment rates of their parent neutral species. We also show that magnesium isocyanide (MgNC) can be formed in the outer envelope through radiative association involving Mg+ and the cyanopolyyne species.

Robust face recognition using posterior union model based neural networks

Face recognition with unknown, partial distortion and occlusion is a practical problem, and has a wide range of applications, including security and multimedia information retrieval. The authors present a new approach to face recognition subject to unknown, partial distortion and occlusion. The new approach is based on a probabilistic decision-based neural network, enhanced by a statistical method called the posterior union model (PUM). PUM is an approach for ignoring severely mismatched local features and focusing the recognition mainly on the reliable local features. It thereby improves the robustness while assuming no prior information about the corruption. We call the new approach the posterior union decision-based neural network (PUDBNN). The new PUDBNN model has been evaluated on three face image databases (XM2VTS, AT&T and AR) using testing images subjected to various types of simulated and realistic partial distortion and occlusion. The new system has been compared to other approaches and has demonstrated improved performance.