Towards accurate estimation of the proportion of true null hypotheses in multiple testing

Background

Biomedical researchers are now often faced with situations where it is necessary to test a large number of hypotheses simultaneously, eg, in comparative gene expression studies using high-throughput microarray technology. To properly control false positive errors the FDR (false discovery rate) approach has become widely used in multiple testing. The accurate estimation of FDR requires the proportion of true null hypotheses being accurately estimated. To date many methods for estimating this quantity have been proposed. Typically when a new method is introduced, some simulations are carried out to show the improved accuracy of the new method. However, the simulations are often very limited to covering only a few points in the parameter space.

Results

Here I have carried out extensive in silico experiments to compare some commonly used methods for estimating the proportion of true null hypotheses. The coverage of these simulations is unprecedented thorough over the parameter space compared to typical simulation studies in the literature. Thus this work enables us to draw conclusions globally as to the performance of these different methods. It was found that a very simple method gives the most accurate estimation in a dominantly large area of the parameter space. Given its simplicity and its overall superior accuracy I recommend its use as the first choice for estimating the proportion of true null hypotheses in multiple testing.

Political Violence and Child Adjustment in Northern Ireland: Testing Pathways in a Social-Ecological Model Including Single- and Two-Parent Families

Moving beyond simply documenting that political violence negatively impacts children, we tested a social ecological hypothesis for relations between political violence and child outcomes. Participants were 700 mother child (M = 12.1 years, SD = 1.8) dyads from 18 working-class, socially deprived areas in Belfast, Northern Ireland, including single- and two-parent families. Sectarian community violence was associated with elevated family conflict and children's reduced security about multiple aspects of their social environment (i.e., family, parent child relations, and community), with links to child adjustment problems and reductions in prosocial behavior. By comparison, and consistent with expectations, links with negative family processes, child regulatory problems, and child outcomes were less consistent for nonsectarian community violence. Support was found for a social ecological model for relations between political violence and child outcomes among both single- and two-parent families, with evidence that emotional security and adjustment problems were more negatively affected in single-parent families. The implications for understanding social ecologies of political violence and children's functioning are discussed.

Testing the Prebish-Singer hypothesis using second-generation panel data stationarity tests with a break

In this paper, we test the Prebish-Singer (PS) hypothesis, which states that real commodity prices decline in the long run, using two recent powerful panel data stationarity tests accounting for cross-sectional dependence and a structural break. We find that the hypothesis cannot be rejected for most commodities other than oil.

Association Study of 167 Candidate Genes for Schizophrenia Selected by a Multi-Domain Evidence-Based Prioritization Algorithm and Neurodevelopmental Hypothesis

Integrating evidence from multiple domains is useful in prioritizing disease candidate genes for subsequent testing. We ranked all known human genes (n = 3819) under linkage peaks in the Irish Study of High-Density Schizophrenia Families using three different evidence domains: 1) a meta-analysis of microarray gene expression results using the Stanley Brain collection, 2) a schizophrenia protein-protein interaction network, and 3) a systematic literature search. Each gene was assigned a domain-specific p-value and ranked after evaluating the evidence within each domain. For comparison to this
ranking process, a large-scale candidate gene hypothesis was also tested by including genes with Gene Ontology terms related to neurodevelopment. Subsequently, genotypes of 3725 SNPs in 167 genes from a custom Illumina iSelect array were used to evaluate the top ranked vs. hypothesis selected genes. Seventy-three genes were both highly ranked and involved in neurodevelopment (category 1) while 42 and 52 genes were exclusive to neurodevelopment (category 2) or highly ranked (category 3), respectively. The most significant associations were observed in genes PRKG1, PRKCE, and CNTN4 but no individual SNPs were significant after correction for multiple testing. Comparison of the approaches showed an excess of significant tests using the hypothesis-driven neurodevelopment category. Random selection of similar sized genes from two independent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of schizophrenia showed the excess was unlikely by chance. In a further meta-analysis of three GWAS datasets, four candidate SNPs reached nominal significance. Although gene ranking using integrated sources of prior information did not enrich for significant results in the current experiment, gene selection using an a priori hypothesis (neurodevelopment) was superior to random selection. As such, further development of gene ranking strategies using more carefully selected sources of information is warranted.

Assessing the evidence: Student response system versus computer based testing for undertaking multiple choice question assessment in undergraduate nursing education

There is a dearth of evidence focusing on student preferences for computer-based testing versus
testing via student response systems for summative assessment in undergraduate education.
This quantitative study compared the preference and acceptability of computer-based testing
and a student response system for completing multiple choice questions in undergraduate
nursing education. After using both computer-based testing and a student response system to
complete multiple choice questions, 192 first year undergraduate nursing students rated their
preferences and attitudes towards using computer-based testing and a student response system.
Results indicated that seventy four percent felt the student response system was easy to use.
Fifty six percent felt the student response system took more time than the computer-based testing
to become familiar with. Sixty Percent felt computer-based testing was more users friendly.
Seventy Percent of students would prefer to take a multiple choice question summative exam
via computer-based testing, although Fifty percent would be happy to take using student response
system. Results are useful for undergraduate educators in relation to student’s preference
for using computer-based testing or student response system to undertake a summative
multiple choice question exam

Integration of shading and texture cues: testing the linear model

One of the first attempts to develop a formal model of depth cue integration is to be found in Maloney and Landy's (1989) "human depth combination rule". They advocate that the combination of depth cues by the visual sysetem is best described by a weighted linear model. The present experiments tested whether the linear combination rule applies to the integration of texture and shading. As would be predicted by a linear combination rule, the weight assigned to the shading cue did vary as a function of its curvature value. However, the weight assigned to the texture cue varied systematically as a function of the curvature value of both cues. Here we descrive a non-linear model which provides a better fit to the data. Redescribing the stimuli in terms of depth rather than curvature reduced the goodness of fit for all models tested. These results support the hypothesis that the locus of cue integration is a curvature map, rather than a depth map. We conclude that the linear comination rule does not generalize to the integration of shading and texture, and that for these cues it is likely that integration occurs after the recovery of surface curvature.

Genetic association analyses of non-synonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms in diabetic nephropathy

Aims/hypothesis: Diabetic nephropathy, characterised by persistent proteinuria, hypertension and progressive kidney failure, affects a subset of susceptible individuals with diabetes. It is also a leading cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Non-synonymous (ns) single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been reported to contribute to genetic susceptibility in both monogenic disorders and common complex diseases. The objective of this study was to investigate whether nsSNPs are involved in susceptibility to diabetic nephropathy using a case-control design.

Methods: White type 1 diabetic patients with (cases) and without (controls) nephropathy from eight centres in the UK and Ireland were genotyped for a selected subset of nsSNPs using Illumina's GoldenGate BeadArray assay. A ? 2 test for trend, stratified by centre, was used to assess differences in genotype distribution between cases and controls. Genomic control was used to adjust for possible inflation of test statistics, and the False Discovery Rate method was used to account for multiple testing.

Results: We assessed 1,111 nsSNPs for association with diabetic nephropathy in 1,711 individuals with type 1 diabetes (894 cases, 817 controls). A number of SNPs demonstrated a significant difference in genotype distribution between groups before but not after correction for multiple testing. Furthermore, neither subgroup analysis (diabetic nephropathy with ESRD or diabetic nephropathy without ESRD) nor stratification by duration of diabetes revealed any significant differences between groups.

Conclusions/interpretation: The nsSNPs investigated in this study do not appear to contribute significantly to the development of diabetic nephropathy in patients with type 1 diabetes.

Multiple Input Governor Control for a Diesel Generating Set

The paper presents a multiple input single output fuzzy logic governor algorithm that can be used to improve the transient response of a diesel generating set, when supplying an islanded load. The proposed governor uses the traditional speed input in addition to voltage and power factor to modify the fuelling requirements during various load disturbances. The use of fuzzy logic control allows the use of PID type structures that can provide variable gain strategies to account for non-linearities in the system. Fuzzy logic also provides a means of processing other input information by linguistic reasoning and a logical control output to aid the governor action during transient disturbance. The test results were obtained using a 50 kVA naturally aspirated diesel generator testing facility. Both real and reactive load tests were conducted. The complex load test results demonstrate that, by using additional inputs to the governor algorithm, enhanced generator transient speed recovery response can be obtained.

Penetration of human skin by the cercariae of Schistosoma mansoni: an investigation of the effect of multiple cercarial applications.

It has previously been postulated that L-arginine emitted by penetrating Schistosoma mansoni cercariae serves as an intraspecific signal guiding other cercariae to the penetration site. It was suggested that penetrating in groups offers a selective advantage. If this hypothesis is correct and group penetration at one site on the host offers an advantage, it would follow that at such a site, successive groups of cercariae would be able to penetrate skin in either greater numbers or at a faster rate. This prediction was tested by the use of an in vitro model of cercarial penetration based on the Franz cell and using human skin. It was demonstrated that there was no increase in the percentage of cercariae able to penetrate the skin with subsequent exposures. Consequently, it seems unlikely that the release of L-arginine by cercariae during penetration could have evolved as a specific orientation system based on a selective advantage offered by group penetration.

Panel unit root tests in the presence of cross-sectional dependence: finite sample performance and an application

This paper examines the finite sample properties of three testing regimes for the null hypothesis of a panel unit root against stationary alternatives in the presence of cross-sectional correlation. The regimes of Bai and Ng (2004), Moon and Perron (2004) and Pesaran (2007) are assessed in the presence of multiple factors and also other non-standard situations. The behaviour of some information criteria used to determine the number of factors in a panel is examined and new information criteria with improved properties in small-N panels proposed. An application to the efficient markets hypothesis is also provided. The null hypothesis of a panel random walk is not rejected by any of the tests, supporting the efficient markets hypothesis in the financial services sector of the Australian Stock Exchange.

The Utility of Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing in Difficult Asthma

Background: Unexplained persistent breathlessness in patients with difficult asthma despite multiple treatments is a common clinical problem. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPX) may help identify the mechanism causing these symptoms, allowing appropriate management.

Methods: This was a retrospective analysis of patients attending a specialist-provided service for difficult asthma who proceeded to CPX as part of our evaluation protocol. Patient demographics, lung function, and use of health care and rescue medication were compared with those in patients with refractory asthma. Medication use 6 months following CPX was compared with treatment during CPX.

Results: Of 302 sequential referrals, 39 patients underwent CPX. A single explanatory feature was identified in 30 patients and two features in nine patients: hyperventilation (n = 14), exercise-induced bronchoconstriction (n = 8), submaximal test (n = 8), normal test (n = 8), ventilatory limitation (n = 7), deconditioning (n = 2), cardiac ischemia (n = 1). Compared with patients with refractory asthma, patients without “pulmonary limitation” on CPX were prescribed similar doses of inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) (median, 1,300 µg [interquartile range (IQR), 800-2,000 µg] vs 1,800 µg [IQR, 1,000-2,000 µg]) and rescue oral steroid courses in the previous year (median, 5 [1-6] vs 5 [1-6]). In this group 6 months post-CPX, ICS doses were reduced (median, 1,300 µg [IQR, 800-2,000 µg] to 800 µg [IQR, 400-1,000 µg]; P < .001) and additional medication treatment was withdrawn (n = 7). Patients with pulmonary limitation had unchanged ICS doses post CPX and additional therapies were introduced.

Conclusions: In difficult asthma, CPX can confirm that persistent exertional breathlessness is due to asthma but can also identify other contributing factors. Patients with nonpulmonary limitation are prescribed inappropriately high doses of steroid therapy, and CPX can identify the primary mechanism of breathlessness, facilitating steroid reduction.

The pace of Holocene vegetation change - testing for synchronous developments

Mid to high latitude forest ecosystems have undergone several major compositional changes during the Holocene. The temporal and spatial patterns of these vegetation changes hold potential information to their causes and triggers. Here we test the hypothesis that the timing of vegetation change was synchronous on a sub-continental scale, which implies a common trigger or a step-like change in climate parameters. Pollen diagrams from selected European regions were statistically divided into assemblage zones and the temporal pattern of the zone boundaries analysed. The results show that the temporal pattern of vegetation change was significantly different from random. Times of change cluster around8.2, 4.8, 3.7, and 1.2 ka, while times of higher than average stability were found around 2.1 and 5.1 ka.Compositional changes linked to the expansion of Corylus avellana and Alnus glutinosa centre around 10.6 and 9.5 ka, respectively. A climatic trigger initiating these changes may have occurred 0.5 to 1 ka earlier, respectively. The synchronous expansion of C. avellana and A. glutinosa exemplify that dispersal is not necessarily followed by population expansion. The partly synchronous, partly random expansion of A. glutinosa in adjacent European regions exemplifies that sudden synchronous population expansions are not species specific traits but vary regionally.

Testing a social ecological model for relations between political violence and child adjustment in Northern Ireland

Relations between political violence and child adjustment are matters of international concern. Past research demonstrates the significance of community, family, and child psychological processes in child adjustment, supporting study of interrelations between multiple social ecological factors and child adjustment in contexts of political violence. Testing a social ecological model, 300 mothers and their children (M = 12.28 years, SD = 1.77) from Catholic and Protestant working class neighborhoods in Belfast, Northern Ireland, completed measures or community discord, family relations, and children's regulatory processes (i.e., emotional security) and outcomes. Historical political violence in neighborhoods based on objective records (i.e., politically motivated deaths) were related to family members' reports of current sectarian antisocial behavior and nonsectarian antisocial behavior. Interparental conflict and parental monitoring and children's emotional security about both the community and family contributed to explanatory pathways for relations between sectarian antisocial behavior in communities and children's adjustment problems. The discussion evaluates support for social ecological models for relations between political violence and child adjustment and its implications for understanding relations in other parts of the world.

A multiple-radical model for radiation action on DNA and the dependence of OER on LET

We have a developed a multiple-radical model of the chemical modification reactions involving oxygen and thiols relevant to the interactions of ionizing radiations with DNA. The treatment is based on the Alper and Howard-Flanders equation but considers the case where more than one radical may be involved in the production of lesions in DNA. This model makes several predictions regarding the induction of double strand breaks in DNA by ionizing radiation and the role of sensitizers such as oxygen and protectors such as thiols which act at the chemical phase of radiation action via the involvement of free radicals. The model predicts a decreasing OER with increasing LET on the basis that as radical multiplicity increases so will the probability that, even under hypoxia, damage will be fixed and lead to lesion production. The model can be considered to provide an alternative hypothesis to those of 'interacting radicals' or of 'oxygen-in-the-track'.