Gathering Antipathy:Irish Immigrants and Race in America's Age of Emancipation

Contribution to an edited collection on the Irish Diaspora focusing on the antagonism between Famine-era Irish immigrants to the US and their estrangement from the main currents of social reform (including antislavery). An intervention in an ongoing debate over immigrant Irish and their ostensible embrace of a proslavery outlook in the late antebellum United States.

The impact of newly identified loci on coronary heart disease, stroke and total mortality in the MORGAM prospective cohorts

Recently, genome wide association studies (GWAS) have identified a number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) as being associated with coronary heart disease (CHD). We estimated the effect of these SNPs on incident CHD, stroke and total mortality in the prospective cohorts of the MORGAM Project. We studied cohorts from Finland, Sweden, France and Northern Ireland (total N=33,282, including 1,436 incident CHD events and 571 incident stroke events). The lead SNPs at seven loci identified thus far and additional SNPs (in total 42) were genotyped using a case-cohort design.We estimated the effect of the SNPs on disease history at baseline, disease events during follow-up and classic risk factors. Multiple testing was taken into account using false discovery rate (FDR) analysis. SNP rs1333049 on chromosome 9p21.3 was associated with both CHD and stroke (HR5=.20, 95% CI 1.08-1.34 for incident CHD events and 1.15, 0.99-1.34 for incident stroke). SNP rs11670734 (19q12) was associated with total mortality and stroke. SNP rs2146807 (10q11.21) showed some association with the fatality of acute coronary event. SNP rs2943634 (2q36.3) was associated with high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and SNPs rs599839, rs4970834 (1p13.3) and rs17228212 (15q22.23) were associated with non-HDL cholesterol. SNPs rs2943634 (2q36.3) and rs12525353 (6q25.1) were associated with blood pressure. These findings underline the need for replication studies in prospective settings and confirm the candidacy of several SNPs that may play a role in the etiology of cardiovascular disease.

Comparing the decline in coronary heart disease and stroke mortality in neighbouring countries with different healthcare systems

Objective
To examine age and gender specific trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality in two neighbouring countries, the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and Northern Ireland (NI). Design Epidemiological study of time trends in CHD and stroke mortality.

Setting/patients
The populations of the ROI and NI, 1985–2010.

Interventions
None.

Main outcome measures
Directly age standardised CHD and stroke mortality rates were calculated and analysed using joinpoint regression to identify years where the slope of the linear trend changed significantly. This was performed separately for specific age groups (25–54, 55–64, 65–74 and 75–84 years) and by gender. Annual percentage change (APC) and 95% CIs are presented.

Results
There was a striking similarity between the two countries, with percentage change between 1985 and 1989 and between 2006 and 2010 of 67% and 69% in
CHD mortality, and 64% and 62% in stroke mortality for the ROI and NI, respectively. However, joinpoint analysis identified differences in the pace of change between the two countries. There was an accelerated pace of decline (negative APC) in mortality for both CHD and stroke in both countries from the mid-1990s (APC ROI −8% (95% CI −9.5 to 6.5) and NI −6.6% (−6.9 to −6.3)), but the accelerated decrease started later for CHD mortality in the ROI. In recent years, a levelling off in CHD mortality was observed in the 25–54 year age group in NI and in stroke mortality for men and women in the ROI.

Conclusions
While differences in the pace of change in mortality were observed at different time points, similar, substantial decreases in CHD and stroke mortality were achieved between 1985 and 1989 and between 2006 and 2010 in the ROI and NI despite important differences in health service structures. There is evidence of a levelling in mortality rates in some groups in recent years.

Structural Breaks in Mortality Models and their Consequences

In recent years, the issue of life expectancy has become of upmost importance to pension providers, insurance companies and the government bodies in the developed world. Significant and consistent improvements in mortality rates and, hence, life expectancy have led to unprecedented increases in the cost of providing for older ages. This has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models forecasting trends in mortality data in order to anticipate future life expectancy and, hence, quantify the costs of providing for future aging populations. Many stochastic models of mortality rates identify linear trends in mortality rates by time, age and cohort, and forecast these trends into the future using standard statistical methods. The modeling approaches used failed to capture the effects of any structural change in the trend and, thus, potentially produced incorrect forecasts of future mortality rates. In this paper, we look at a range of leading stochastic models of mortality and test for structural breaks in the trend time series.

Excess mortality in Type 1 diabetes diagnosed in childhood and adolescence: a systematic review of population-based cohorts

Aims: Systematic review of mortality in childhood-/adolescent-diagnosed Type 1 diabetes and examination of factors explaining the mortality variation between studies. 
Methods: Relevant studies were identified from systematic searches of MEDLINE and EMBASE. Observed and expected numbers of deaths were extracted, and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Negative binomial regression was used to investigate association between mortality and study/country characteristics.
Results: Thirteen relevant publications with mortality data were identified describing 23 independent studies. SMRs varied markedly ranging from 0 to 854 (chi-squared = 70.68,df = 21, p<0.0001). Significant associations were observed between SMR and mid-year of follow-up [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.95, 95 % CI 0.91–0.99 equivalent to a 5 % decrease per year], between SMR and infant mortality rate (IRR 1.07, 95 % CI 1.02–1.12, a 7 % increase for each death per 1,000 live births) and, after omitting an outlier, between SMR and health expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) (IRR 0.79, 95 % CI 0.68–0.93, a 21 % decrease for each one percent increase in GDP). No relationship was detected between SMR and a country’s childhood diabetes incidence rate or GDP.
Conclusions: Excess mortality in childhood-/adolescent diagnosed Type 1 diabetes is apparent across countries worldwide. Excesses were less marked in more recent studies and in countries with lower infant mortality and higher health expenditure.

Smoking and All-cause Mortality in Older Adults: Results From the CHANCES Consortium

INTRODUCTION: Smoking is known to be a major cause of death among middle-aged adults, but evidence on its impact and the benefits of smoking cessation among older adults has remained limited. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the influence of smoking and smoking cessation on all-cause mortality in people aged ≥60 years.

METHODS: Relative mortality and mortality rate advancement periods (RAPs) were estimated by Cox proportional hazards models for the population-based prospective cohort studies from Europe and the U.S. (CHANCES [Consortium on Health and Ageing: Network of Cohorts in Europe and the U.S.]), and subsequently pooled by individual participant meta-analysis. Statistical analyses were performed from June 2013 to March 2014.

RESULTS: A total of 489,056 participants aged ≥60 years at baseline from 22 population-based cohort studies were included. Overall, 99,298 deaths were recorded. Current smokers had 2-fold and former smokers had 1.3-fold increased mortality compared with never smokers. These increases in mortality translated to RAPs of 6.4 (95% CI=4.8, 7.9) and 2.4 (95% CI=1.5, 3.4) years, respectively. A clear positive dose-response relationship was observed between number of currently smoked cigarettes and mortality. For former smokers, excess mortality and RAPs decreased with time since cessation, with RAPs of 3.9 (95% CI=3.0, 4.7), 2.7 (95% CI=1.8, 3.6), and 0.7 (95% CI=0.2, 1.1) for those who had quit <10, 10 to 19, and ≥20 years ago, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: Smoking remains as a strong risk factor for premature mortality in older individuals and cessation remains beneficial even at advanced ages. Efforts to support smoking abstinence at all ages should be a public health priority.

Predictive Value of Depressive Symptoms for All-Cause Mortality: Findings From the PRIME Belfast Study Examining the Role of Inflammation and Cardiovascular Risk Markers

OBJECTIVES: To improve understanding about the potential underlying biological mechanisms in the link between depression and all-cause mortality and to investigate the role that inflammatory and other cardiovascular risk factors may play in the relationship between depressive symptoms and mortality.

METHODS: Depression and blood-based biological markers were assessed in the Belfast PRIME prospective cohort study (N = 2389 men, aged 50-59 years) in which participants were followed up for 18 years. Depression was measured using the 10-item Welsh Pure Depression Inventory. Inflammation markers (C-reactive protein [CRP], neopterin, interleukin [IL]-1 receptor antagonist [IL-1Ra], and IL-18) and cardiovascular-specific risk factors (N-terminal pro-b-type natriuretic peptide, midregion pro-atrial natriuretic peptide, midregion pro-adrenomedullin, C-terminal pro-endothelin-1 [CT-proET]) were obtained at baseline. We used Cox proportional hazards modeling to examine the association between depression and biological measures in relation to all-cause mortality and explore the mediating effects.

RESULTS: During follow-up, 418 participants died. Higher levels of depressive symptoms were associated with higher levels of CRP, IL-1Ra, and CT-proET. After adjustment for socioeconomic and life-style risk factors, depressive symptoms were significantly associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio = 1.10 per scale unit, 95% confidence interval = 1.04-1.16). This association was partly explained by CRP (7.3%) suggesting a minimal mediation effect. IL-1Ra, N-terminal pro-b-type natriuretic peptide, midregion pro-atrial natriuretic peptide, midregion pro-adrenomedullin, and CT-proET contributed marginally to the association between depression and subsequent mortality.

CONCLUSIONS: Inflammatory and cardiovascular risk markers are associated with depression and with increased mortality. However, depression and biological measures show additive effects rather than a pattern of meditation of biological factors in the association between depression and mortality.

Constructions of locality and gender and their impact on the educational aspirations of working class children

Over recent years the moral panic that has surrounded 'boys' underachievement' has tended to encourage crude and essentialist comparisons between all boys and all girls and to eclipse the continuing and more profound effects on educational achievement exerted by social class and 'race'/ethnicity. While there are differences in educational achievement between working class boys and girls, these differences are relatively minor when comparing the overall achievement levels of working class children with those from higher, professional social class backgrounds. This paper argues that a need exists therefore for researchers to fully contextualise the gender differences that exist in educational achievement within the over-riding contexts provided by social class and 'race'/ethnicity. The paper provides an example of how this can be done through a case study of 11-year-old children from a Catholic, working class area in Belfast. The paper shows how the children's general educational aspirations are significantly mediated by their experiences of the local area in which they live. However, the way in which the children come to experience and construct a sense of locality differs between the boys and girls and this, it is argued, helps to explain the more positive educational aspirations held by some of the girls compared to the boys. The paper concludes by considering the relevance of locality for understanding its effects on educational aspirations among other working class and/or minority ethnic communities.

Models of open populations with space-limited recruitment: extension of theory and application to the barnacle Chthamalus montagui.

1. Barnacles are a good model organism for the study of open populations with space-limited recruitment. These models are applicable to other species with open supply of new individuals and resource limitation. The inclusion of space in models leads to reductions in recruitment with increasing density, and thus predictions of population size and stability are possible. 2. Despite the potential generality of a demographic theory for open space-limited populations, the models currently have a narrow empirical base. In this study, a model for an open population with space-limited recruitment was extended to include size-specific survival and promotions to any size class. The assumptions of this model were tested using data from a pan-European study of the barnacle Chthamalus montagui Southward. Two models were constructed: a 6-month model and a periodic annual model. Predicted equilibria and their stabilities were compared between shores. 3. Tests of model assumptions supported the extension of the theory to include promotions to any size class. Mortality was found to be size-specific and density independent. Studied populations were open, with recruitment proportional to free space. 4. The 6-month model showed a significant interaction between time and location for equilibrium free space. This may have been due to contrasts in the timing of structuring processes (i.e. creating and filling space) between Mediterranean and Atlantic systems. Integration of the 6-month models into a periodic annual model removed the differences in equilibrium-free space between locations. 5. Model predictions show a remarkable similarity between shores at a European scale. Populations were persistent and all solutions were stable. This reflects the apparent absence of density-dependent mortality and a high adult survivorship in C. montagui. As populations are intrinsically stable, observations of fluctuations in density are directly attributable to variations in the environmental forcing of recruitment or mortality

The SPHERE Study: Secondary prevention of heart disease in general practice: protocol of a randomised controlled trial of tailored practice and patient care plans with parallel qualitative, economic and policy analyses. [ISRCTN24081411]

Background: The aim of the SPHERE study is to design, implement and evaluate tailored practice and personal care plans to improve the process of care and objective clinical outcomes for patients with established coronary heart disease (CHD) in general practice across two different health systems on the island of Ireland.CHD is a common cause of death and a significant cause of morbidity in Ireland. Secondary prevention has been recommended as a key strategy for reducing levels of CHD mortality and general practice has been highlighted as an ideal setting for secondary prevention initiatives. Current indications suggest that there is considerable room for improvement in the provision of secondary prevention for patients with established heart disease on the island of Ireland. The review literature recommends structured programmes with continued support and follow-up of patients; the provision of training, tailored to practice needs of access to evidence of effectiveness of secondary prevention; structured recall programmes that also take account of individual practice needs; and patient-centred consultations accompanied by attention to disease management guidelines.

Methods: SPHERE is a cluster randomised controlled trial, with practice-level randomisation to intervention and control groups, recruiting 960 patients from 48 practices in three study centres (Belfast, Dublin and Galway). Primary outcomes are blood pressure, total cholesterol, physical and mental health status (SF-12) and hospital re-admissions. The intervention takes place over two years and data is collected at baseline, one-year and two-year follow-up. Data is obtained from medical charts, consultations with practitioners, and patient postal questionnaires. The SPHERE intervention involves the implementation of a structured systematic programme of care for patients with CHD attending general practice. It is a multi-faceted intervention that has been developed to respond to barriers and solutions to optimal secondary prevention identified in preliminary qualitative research with practitioners and patients. General practitioners and practice nurses attend training sessions in facilitating behaviour change and medication prescribing guidelines for secondary prevention of CHD. Patients are invited to attend regular four-monthly consultations over two years, during which targets and goals for secondary prevention are set and reviewed. The analysis will be strengthened by economic, policy and qualitative components.

Ascertainment of cause-specific mortality in COPD - operations of the TORCH clinical endpoint Committee

Background: TORCH (Towards a Revolution in COPD Health) is an international multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled clinical trial of inhaled fluticasone propionate/salmeterol combination treatment and its monotherapy components for maintenance treatment of moderately to severely impaired patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The primary outcome is all-cause mortality. Cause-specific mortality and deaths related to COPD are additional outcome measures, but systematic methods for ascertainment of these outcomes have not previously been described. Methods: A Clinical Endpoint Committee (CEC) was tasked with categorising the cause of death and the relationship of deaths to COPD in a systematic, unbiased and independent manner. The key elements of the operation of the committee were the use of predefined principles of operation and definitions of cause of death and COPD-relatedness; the independent review of cases by all members with development of a consensus opinion; and a substantial infrastructure to collect medical information. Results: 911 deaths were reviewed and consensus was reached in all. Cause-specific mortality was: cardiovascular 27%, respiratory 35%, cancer 21%, other 10% and unknown 8%. 40% of deaths were definitely or probably related to COPD. Adjudications were identical in 83% of blindly re-adjudicated cases ( = 0.80). COPD-relatedness was reproduced 84% of the time ( = 0.73). The CEC adjudication was equivalent to the primary cause of death recorded by the site investigator in 52% of cases. Conclusion: A CEC can provide standardised, reliable and informative adjudication of COPD mortality that provides information which frequently differs from data collected from assessment by site investigators.

Factors associated with hare mortality during coursing

Hare coursing is a widespread but controversial activity. In an attempt to reduce hare mortality and mitigate the activity's impact on hare welfare, the Irish Coursing Club introduced measures including the compulsory muzzling of dogs in 1993. However, the efficacy of these measures remained the subject of heated debate. Official records, corroborated by independent video evidence, were used to assess the fate of individual Irish hares (Lepus timiclus hibernicus) during coursing events from 1988-2004. Muzzling dogs significantly reduced levels of hare mortality. In courses using unmuzzled dogs from 1988189-1992193 mean hare mortality was 15.8%, compared to 4.1% in courses using muzzled dogs from 1993194-2003104. Further reductions in mortality could not be accounted for by muzzling dogs, supporting the efficacy of other factors such as improved hare husbandry. The duration of the head start given to the hare prior to the release of the dogs significantly affected the outcome of the course. Hares that were killed had head starts of greater duration than those that were chased but survived, suggesting the former may have been slower. The selection of hares by assessment of their running ability may provide means to reduce hare mortality during courses further. Our findings support the efficacy of measures taken to mitigate the impact of coursing on individual hares. However, it is necessary to evaluate the impact of removing hares from the source population and of returning coursed hares to the wild before the wider impact of coursing on wild hare populations can be determined.

Systematic review of the effect of diet and exercise lifestyle interventions in the secondary prevention of coronary heart disease.

The effectiveness of lifestyle interventions within secondary prevention of coronary heart disease(CHD)remains unclear.This systematic review aimed to determine their effectiveness and included randomized controlled trials of lifestyle interventions, in primary care or community settings, with a minimum follow-up of three months, published since 1990. 21 trials with 10,799 patients were included; the interventions were multifactorial (10), educational (4), psychological (3), dietary (1), organisational (2), and exercise(1). The overall results for modifiable risk factors suggested improvements in dietary and exercise outcomes but no overall effect on smoking outcomes. In trials that examined mortality and morbidity,significant benefits were reported for total mortality (in 4 of 6 trials;overall risk ratio(RR) 0.75 (95%confidence intervals (CI) 0.65, 0.87)), cardiovascular mortality (3 of 8 trials; overall RR 0.63(95%CI 0.47, 0.84)), and nonfatal cardiac events(5 of 9 trials; overall RR 0.68(95%CI 0.55, 0.84)). The heterogeneity between trials and generally poor quality of trials make any concrete conclusions difficult. However, the beneficial effects observed in this review are encouraging and should stimulate further research.

A study of HER2 gene amplification and protein expression in gastric cancer

Background Gastric cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related mortality, and current treatment outcomes for advanced disease remain poor. HER2 has been identified as a potential candidate for targeted therapy in gastric cancers displaying HER2 gene amplification and protein overexpression.

Oromotor dysfunction and communication impairments in children with cerebral palsy: a Register study

Aim  To report the prevalence, clinical associations, and trends over time of oromotor dysfunction and communication impairments in children with cerebral palsy (CP).

Method  Multiple sources of ascertainment were used and children followed up with a standardized assessment including motor speech problems, swallowing/chewing difficulties, excessive drooling, and communication impairments at age 5 years.

Results  A total of 1357 children born between 1980 and 2001 were studied (781 males, 576 females; median age 5y 11mo, interquartile range 3–9y; unilateral spastic CP, n=447; bilateral spastic CP, n=496; other, n=112; Gross Motor Function Classification System [GMFCS] level: I, 181; II, 563; III, 123; IV, 82; IV, 276). Of those with ‘early-onset’ CP (n=1268), 36% had motor speech problems, 21% had swallowing/chewing difficulties, 22% had excessive drooling, and 42% had communication impairments (excluding articulation defects). All impairments were significantly related to poorer gross motor function and intellectual impairment. In addition, motor speech problems were related to clinical subtype; swallowing/chewing problems and communication impairments to early mortality; and communication impairments to the presence of seizures. Of those with CP in GMFCS levels IV to V, a significant proportion showed a decline in the rate of motor speech impairment (p=0.008) and excessive drooling (p=0.009) over time.

Interpretation  These impairments are common in children with CP and are associated with poorer gross motor function and intellectual impairment.